NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Warper · 29-09-2014 3:21pm

Ive got my double on already for next Sunday, Cowboys -3.5 home to the Texans and Detroit -7 home to the Bills, both 10-11 Bwin

matthew8 · 29-09-2014 3:31pm

GB 10 point faves home to Minnesota. Maybe too much given the Vikings have a decent offense now and should walk all over that defense?

padraig_f · 29-09-2014 4:01pm

matthew8 wrote: »

GB 10 point faves home to Minnesota. Maybe too much given the Vikings have a decent offense now and should walk all over that defense?

Definitely getting some value fading the Green Bay side, gave up 496 yards of offense yesterday, didn't show up on the scoreboard for various reasons, Bears screwups, and refs to a certain extent.

Hulk Hands · 29-09-2014 4:23pm

Warper wrote: »

Ive got my double on already for next Sunday, Cowboys -3.5 home to the Texans and Detroit -7 home to the Bills, both 10-11 Bwin

I've want to back an opposite one of those. The Cowboys only get 2 points for homefield and I can't see how theyre currently a full point and a half better than the Texans as a side. I think its a bit of an overreaction to the Cowboys beating the Saints. Id take the Bears +3 at Carolina with bwin also. Think ill have to open an account in the woman's name or something. Bwin are golden for these early lines

poldebruin · 29-09-2014 9:02pm

Had a cheeky punt on Chiefs over Patriots outright tonight. I was a bit surprised that the Chiefs were getting +3 and are at home.
The Chiefs have looked fairly decent, gave the Broncos all they could handle in week 2 while the Patriots look completely out of sorts and struggled against the Raiders - the same Raiders that got destroyed by the Dolphins yesterday. Their OL was made to look poor by the Raiders. I don't think I've ever seen as much interior pressure and penetration without extra men being brought.

skippymac6 · 30-09-2014 8:57am

Well that did not go to script! Easily got the -2.5 on the pats but obviously that went south very quickly! Like the above poster mentions, the pressure brought by the chiefs was immense and really the only time that the pats were able to exert any pressure of their own was when Chandler Jones got around Fisher for a sack early on. The patriots inability to convert on short or intermediate third downs really hurt them as they gave the ball back to the chiefs who with Smith and the rushing game looking very polished, just tore them apart. Belicheck won't be happy with this one and shows up some major flaws that were possibly not exposed against the lesser opponents they've faced all year. Great shout on the chiefs by a number of people on here though, they were full value for it!

matthew8 · 30-09-2014 6:28pm

+3.41 now (15 total staked), putting 1 unit on Atlanta +4.5 1.94 (I think it should be 1-3 points further towards Atlanta, think they're as good as Giants and Ryan won't go on the run Cousins went on) while also very much liking the look of Saints -10.5 and Patriots +1.

Deco99 · 01-10-2014 12:56am

Any particular superbowl bets after 4 games. I get the feeling someone outside first three in betting could spring a surprise? Colts? Prob dont have the squad but luck is mvp. 25s??? Bengals?

padraig_f · 01-10-2014 2:37am

Deco99 wrote: »

Any particular superbowl bets after 4 games. I get the feeling someone outside first three in betting could spring a surprise? Colts? Prob dont have the squad but luck is mvp. 25s??? Bengals?

Super Bowl futures tend not to be great value, so wouldn't put too much on it. But if you want a dark horse, I'd say the Chargers (14/1), they have the QB, already 3-1 and beaten the Seahawks, coming through the softer AFC.

Bateman · 01-10-2014 11:05am

padraig_f wrote: »

Super Bowl futures tend not to be great value, so wouldn't put too much on it. But if you want a dark horse, I'd say the Chargers (14/1), they have the QB, already 3-1 and beaten the Seahawks, coming through the softer AFC.

Them and the Saints seemed to be the trendy teams pre-season with the numbers nerds. The Saints were smashed in the market, 33 to 16 or something. Probably for that reason only, from the two I luckily went with the Chargers at 47 on betfair.

Warper · 01-10-2014 12:24pm

The team that look the most value to me are the Cowboys at 40-1. I have backed the 49'ers pre-season and i still like them. No value on Broncos/Seahawks but so far the Cowboys have impressed me.

padraig_f · 01-10-2014 12:41pm

Bateman wrote: »

Them and the Saints seemed to be the trendy teams pre-season with the numbers nerds. The Saints were smashed in the market, 33 to 16 or something. Probably for that reason only, from the two I luckily went with the Chargers at 47 on betfair.

That's a good price. I thought they looked great in that game against the Seahawks, you don't get easy wins against them.

skippymac6 · 01-10-2014 1:06pm

padraig_f wrote: »

That's a good price. I thought they looked great in that game against the Seahawks, you don't get easy wins against them.

The Chargers are a good side but you feel that they probably have to win the division to get out of the AFC. I know they beat the Bengals in Cincy in the playoffs last year and then put it up to the Broncos but I think they will come up short again if they don't finish the season ahead of the Broncos.

The way they are playing though has given them every chance. Their next three games are the Jets, @ Raiders and Chiefs at home too. If they win those three (or certainly 2 of the 3) then they will go into that Thursday night game full of confidence at Denver.

padraig_f · 01-10-2014 2:08pm

skippymac6 wrote: »

The Chargers are a good side but you feel that they probably have to win the division to get out of the AFC. I know they beat the Bengals in Cincy in the playoffs last year and then put it up to the Broncos but I think they will come up short again if they don't finish the season ahead of the Broncos.

The way they are playing though has given them every chance. Their next three games are the Jets, @ Raiders and Chiefs at home too. If they win those three (or certainly 2 of the 3) then they will go into that Thursday night game full of confidence at Denver.

Yeah I suppose that's a negative against them alright, will have to go the wild card route if they don't finish ahead of Denver. But did play them pretty well last year, 1-1 in the regular season and lost by a touchdown in the playoffs, so not a given that they'll be a wild card. Will be a good one at Mile High in a few weeks.

matthew8 · 01-10-2014 2:52pm

Chargers are 14/1 best price now. I rate them and if the season ended now Rivers would be my MVP but couldn't be a backer at that price. Defense and running game not good enough for me right now.

skippymac6 · 01-10-2014 3:22pm

matthew8 wrote: »

Chargers are 14/1 best price now. I rate them and if the season ended now Rivers would be my MVP but couldn't be a backer at that price. Defense and running game not good enough for me right now.

Yeah it's only 4 games into the year too. Other teams will fall off/come back into contention now over the next few weeks. Lot of football to be played so if you haven't backed anyone at this stage I'd leave it for a few more weeks. I had GB and NO pre-season as my superbowl picks at 16/1 each. Wouldn't mind changing the NO pick! They should make the playoffs still in the weak NFC South but can't see them winning many matches away from the Superdome.

Bateman · 01-10-2014 4:29pm

I don't rate beating Denver as an impossible feat at all to be honest. Assuming they're in the AFC title game, which is a bit of a leap in the first place, I don't think any team travelling to Mile High (Baltimore, Indy, San Diego, Cinci) will be exactly petrified of them.

Getting to 2 Superbowls on the trot is an enormous achievement (even if we don't give the losers any credit) and I am not sure Denver are up to it.

eagle eye · 01-10-2014 5:25pm

I'm seriously tempted to back the Cards straight to beat the Broncos this week.

JaMarcusHustle · 01-10-2014 5:49pm

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm seriously tempted to back the Cards straight to beat the Broncos this week.

Without Palmer? He was confident of playing when speaking before the bye week, but he's pretty much said he hasn't recovered as quickly as he thought he would. Doesn't sound good for him for this week.

Billy86 · 01-10-2014 5:57pm

Palmer is nothing special to be honest. Sure there is every chance Drew Stanton shows last week was a fluke which is a big worry, but at the same time I've just found Palmer to be one of (if not the) most overrated QB of the last decade and put his return to form down to Bruce Arians as much as anything. He hasn't been the same since his injuries (and his first three or so years in Cincinnati were really good).

JaMarcusHustle · 01-10-2014 5:59pm

Billy86 wrote: »

Palmer is nothing special to be honest. Sure there is every chance Drew Stanton shows last week was a fluke which is a big worry, but at the same time I've just found Palmer to be one of (if not the) most overrated QB of the last decade and put his return to form down to Bruce Arians as much as anything. He hasn't been the same since his injuries (and his first three or so years in Cincinnati were really good).

Oh I'm not singing Palmer's praises or anything, I'd just fancy the Cardinals chances a lot more with him under centre rather than Stanton. He's awful.

Hulk Hands · 01-10-2014 6:02pm

padraig_f wrote: »

Super Bowl futures tend not to be great value, so wouldn't put too much on it. But if you want a dark horse, I'd say the Chargers (14/1), they have the QB, already 3-1 and beaten the Seahawks, coming through the softer AFC.

Why do you say that? The exchange market is currently betting to 102%, so little or no margin. Even best price with the fixed odds bookies are only betting about 85% the top 12 in the market. There's a view from 'pros' in the U.S to stay away from antepost betting which which makes a bit of sense in their high margin market, but the margins are small over here. I had one antepost bet today, the Bengals at 5/1 for the AFC, 1/2 the odds e/w 2 places. That's 5/2 to even make the AFC championship game. Great value that they could likely never get in the states. The fact that the UK's third most important bookie William Hill, went in last year and took over half the bricks and mortar bookies in Vegas, shows what a joke their industry is. I'd place very little relevance in it.

eagle eye · 01-10-2014 6:24pm

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Without Palmer? He was confident of playing when speaking before the bye week, but he's pretty much said he hasn't recovered as quickly as he thought he would. Doesn't sound good for him for this week.

Yep even with Stanton as starter. He did well enough against the 49ers and has had a bye week to get even more in sync with his teammates. Two starts and two wins under his best now and I just like what this team is doing on offense. Their D is exceptional too and I fancy they can keep the Broncos in the low 20's on points. I fancy they'll win it by a td.

UnitedIrishman · 01-10-2014 7:25pm

I'm with Jamarcus on this one. Wouldn't be backing them without Palmer lining up. Their D is excellent but I'd fancy Peyton to find a way through them. Add to that Stanton had completions of 48% and 54% in his last to games. If the Cards go behind then they're going to struggle to stay on the field IMO no less win the game.

Hulk Hands · 01-10-2014 7:30pm

Bear in mind that Palmer suiting up will effect the price either way. Personally if I was backing id rather take 7/2 with Stanton than 5/2 with Palmer. Just wait for an announcement Sunday and he's announced to play, back it quick. If not, hold off until late on

padraig_f · 01-10-2014 8:14pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why do you say that? The exchange market is currently betting to 102%, so little or no margin. Even best price with the fixed odds bookies are only betting about 85% the top 12 in the market. There's a view from 'pros' in the U.S to stay away from antepost betting which which makes a bit of sense in their high margin market, but the margins are small over here. I had one antepost bet today, the Bengals at 5/1 for the AFC, 1/2 the odds e/w 2 places. That's 5/2 to even make the AFC championship game. Great value that they could likely never get in the states. The fact that the UK's third most important bookie William Hill, went in last year and took over half the bricks and mortar bookies in Vegas, shows what a joke their industry is. I'd place very little relevance in it.

Ok if you get 102% then that's ok, don't think the average punter is looking at overrounds. I worked out the overround on Bet365 Super Bowl futures market there, to take one example, it's 130%. So for every €13 wagered on that market, bet365 are paying out €10. Tough to have such an edge on a team, that you can make a profit there.

Are you betting the Vikings on Thursday? I see the price is falling, and it's probably not public money that's moving it.

matthew8 · 01-10-2014 8:28pm

Falcons +4.5, Patriots to win 2.02 and Saints -10 1.95 1 unit each. Never got on the Vikings because I think betting against Aaron Rodgers a lot has to go right to get your money and I don't back teams on the plus who I don't give a realistic chance of winning. If the line keeps on moving towards the Vikings (-8.5 now) might even back GB, but it would take -7 to make it a definite bet.

skippymac6 · 02-10-2014 9:50am

Early doors I can't see much differences in the prices set by the bookmakers and what I was thinking myself. A lot of straight field goal and TD favourites it seems with nothing really sticking out. Really looking forward to the Ravens vs Colts game and the Broncos vs Cardinals. Also for the first time this season the three "afternoon" games look like good ones.

Lot of teams on the precipice early too. If the Jets, Bears, Steelers, Bills or Falcons don't pick up tough victories on the road this week it could spell trouble for them.

Bateman · 02-10-2014 10:22am

The pros all seemed to like the Jets last week and I couldn't touch them to be honest, I kind of feel the same tonight if they're on the Vikings.

Surely after the Vikings beating the Falcons last week and the Teddy Football hype, they're buying very high?

The game is probably a pass for me.

Onecoolcookie · 02-10-2014 2:27pm

Giants over Falcons looks good to me, Falcons OL is an absolute mess at the moment with the centre placed on IR and William Moore their best defensive player also out. If Eli is given time to throw he can be deadly and with zero pash rush from the Falcons he should have all the time in the world.

Hulk Hands · 02-10-2014 4:26pm

padraig_f wrote: »

Are you betting the Vikings on Thursday? I see the price is falling, and it's probably not public money that's moving it.

Nah I won't touch it. I'd have considered it at 10.5. They could easily play well and lose by 14. If they get blown out tonight then they could be a bet against the Lions next week.

On the overrounds point, even at 130% that's only applying an average of 1% margin per selection. If you're backing a spread at 10/11 either side then that's 2% per selection. This is a concept that some of the so called 'sharps' in the US can't seem to get their head around. Anyway these days you'd hope people are actively seeking best price rather than sticking with the likes of 365

Bateman · 02-10-2014 4:37pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

If you're backing a spread at 10/11 either side then that's 2% per selection. This is a concept that some of the so called 'sharps' in the US can't seem to get their head around.

I think they can, and the best of them are claiming to hit over 60% on a consistent basis to cover the juice and win money (whether they actually hit the % they say they do is another story

). Remember they don't have the infinite choice of throat-cutting competition among bookmakers and exchanges that we do so they have to make do with the prices they are presented with.

matthew8 · 02-10-2014 11:34pm

GB -9.5 2.01 1 unit.

JaMarcusHustle · 02-10-2014 11:58pm

Teddy Throwsvelt is out tonight.

padraig_f · 03-10-2014 12:48am

Hulk Hands wrote: »

On the overrounds point, even at 130% that's only applying an average of 1% margin per selection. If you're backing a spread at 10/11 either side then that's 2% per selection. This is a concept that some of the so called 'sharps' in the US can't seem to get their head around. Anyway these days you'd hope people are actively seeking best price rather than sticking with the likes of 365

Think your maths may be wrong there.

e.g. take 32 equally ranked teams, the odds will be 32.0 (decimal) in a 100% book.

For a 130% book, the odds given for each team will be: 32/1.3 = 24.6

(i.e. 32 * 1/24.6 = 130%)

Expected value will be: 24.6/32 (i.e. 1/32 chance, but only pays 24.6 times your stake back), which is 77%, or a loss of 23% of your original stake.

Much worse than a 10/11 bet, where the overround is 105%, and you expect to lose about 5%.

padraig_f · 03-10-2014 12:56am

Maybe heart ruling the head, but I'm on team Ponder tonight, Vikings +9. More of a bet against Green Bay, whose defense I think is pretty poor, and their offense was made to look better than it is last week, with an awful Chicago defensive effort.

Didn't care too much about the game, but now I'm looking forward to it. That's what makes gambling cool.

Billy86 · 03-10-2014 1:24am

padraig_f wrote: »

Maybe heart ruling the head, but I'm on team Ponder tonight, Vikings +9. More of a bet against Green Bay, whose defense I think is pretty poor, and their offense was made to look better than it is last week, with an awful Chicago defensive effort.

Didn't care too much about the game, but now I'm looking forward to it. That's what makes gambling cool.

+9 is still a solid bet to be honest, GB have been giving up 176 rushing yards alone(!) per game and the Vikings did really well there against the Falcons. Also, Zimmer has a good history against Rodgers. The telling point could well be if the Packers line plays more like it did on Monday, or it the three weeks prior.

I went with GB -8.5 and over 48 points at 13/5, just a pure punt of a bet at a tenner when I heard Bridgewater was out. I was already thinking it was a dumb one (especially with the rain) but I always feel compelled to put a fiver or tenner on the Monday/Thursday games.

eagle eye · 03-10-2014 1:51am

If Ponder can settle into it this game I see a very high scoring one. Just gone on over 52.5 @ 2/1.

Billy86 · 03-10-2014 1:53am

eagle eye wrote: »

If Ponder can settle into it this game I see a very high scoring one. Just gone on over 52.5 @ 2/1.

Nick. Of. Time.

I'm assuming you beat the Jordy Nelson TD by about 10 seconds.

eagle eye · 03-10-2014 2:22am

Billy86 wrote: »

Nick. Of. Time.

I'm assuming you beat the Jordy Nelson TD by about 10 seconds.

I did and was delighted but we need more before halftime, its certainly slowed a bit now.

Billy86 · 03-10-2014 2:25am

Yep, and Ponder isn't going to be helping much. Best bet at this rate might be Packers to get the next 3 TDs hopefully quick enough and use backups in the fourth quarter with a lot of cover 2/prevent stuff, a bit like the Bucs/Falcons game two weeks back if you saw it.

eagle eye · 03-10-2014 3:04am

Well I can see it happening now. The Packers might go run heavy early in the second half but Rogers won't be able to resist the deep ball if they open up the field with the run.

And surely the Vikes will find some way to get a td at some stage. Maybe they should try their other QB with how badly Ponder has done, thats if he is active.

Billy86 · 03-10-2014 3:06am

Awful feeling about a 45 point total here.

shamrock55 · 03-10-2014 4:31am

Well fcuk the vikings and ponder anyway, i had vikings to get over 10.5, they just cost me 125quid why not just take the 3 fcuking points:mad:

JaMarcusHustle · 03-10-2014 10:18am

Think I've asked before but can we please ban after timing in here? Frostie?

skippymac6 · 03-10-2014 10:29am

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Think I've asked before but can we please ban after timing in here? Frostie?

Sorry pal took it off there. Didn't mean to upset anyone but you're right.

Looking forward to Sunday's games now. I don't think I've ever seen a Lions game with a points total of 43.5 in Ford Field but just shows you how good their defence is this year. Be interesting to see how that joker Orton gets on! Also looking forward to seeing if Alex Smith can exact some sort of revenge on the 49rs. Can't believe that sky are showing the Jets vs Chargers ahead of that game or the Broncos vs Cardinals.

Bateman · 03-10-2014 10:43am

Current leans:
Arizona +
St Loius +
Indianapolis overs
My bet of the season so far was San Fran -4.5 last week, palpitations during that final drive so although some will like their spot this week, I think the Niners are a stay-away team for the time being

padraig_f · 03-10-2014 12:42pm

That Vikings bet wasn't much fun after all, looked in trouble after the first series or two. While Ponder wasn't very good, his protection was really bad, which was evident from the start. In hindsight, I should've maybe held off, and looked to do an in-running bet in the 1st quarter if I liked what I saw. Could be a useful angle for Thursday night games, where you often see one team that turns up, and another that's not at the races.

Still think GB are over-valued, the Vikings defense did quite well against them. The Packers only had 164 passing yards last night, with the short fields and turnovers. Should be a good spot to go against them next week, because the narrative is they're flying now, which I don't think is exactly the case.

Bateman · 03-10-2014 1:41pm

...and their early season slaughtering at Seattle looks even worse now considering Seattle have already dropped one to San Diego and had to sweat so much against Denver.

eagle eye · 03-10-2014 5:11pm

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

Think I've asked before but can we please ban after timing in here? Frostie?

I don't get why people have a problem with 'aftertiming'. What's the issue with it?

NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

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