Dublin Fingal General Election

jwwb · 08-10-2015 11:14am #1

Looks like the General Election will be either weeks away or months away so is it time to start a General Election thread?

We bid farewell to Dublin North and welcome Dublin Fingal together with our compatriots from Rivervalley who briefly moved out west and a brand new and shiny extra seat to bring it to a total of five.

Sitting TDs in Dublin North are:
Clare Daly (Independent Socialist)
Alan Farrell (FG)
James Reilly (FG)
Brendan Ryan (Labour)

Going by adriankavanaghelections.org/2014/10/22/officially-declared-candidates-for-the-20152016-general-election/ (a rather exellent and informative site) there are now a total of 11 candidates who will be looking for your hanging chad in November are February/March. These are:

Lorraine Clifford-Lee (FF)
Alan Farrell (FG)
Roslyn Fuller (Independent)
Terry Kelleher (AAA)
Barry Martin (PBPA)
Tony Murphy (Independent)
Darragh O’Brien (FF)
Joe O’Brien (GP)
Louise O’Reilly (SF)
James Reilly (FG)
Brendan Ryan (Labour)

Also expected are:
Clare Daly (Independent Socialist)
Keith Redmond (Renua)

In terms of mathematics a candidate will need 16.7% of the vote to get elected so from the various polls you can get some idea of who will be there are the final shake out. Dublin North has however proven itself to be a little bit contrarian in the past so it’s all to play for.

My best guess is: Daly, D. O’Brien FF, L O’Reilly SF, 1FG, and finally a dog fight between Labour / 2FG / AN Other with the last seat being decided by order of elimination (excuse the cliche).

cowzerp · 08-10-2015 11:42am

Anyone who votes for FF, FG, Labour, The Greens or Renua which are just FG Rejects are fools, it's time to get rid of politicians who prioritise banks and corporates over the people they are meant to be working for, The banks got bailed out, we got sold out.

neris · 08-10-2015 12:09pm

cowzerp wrote: »

Anyone who votes for FF, FG, Labour, The Greens or Renua which are just FG Rejects are fools, it's time to get rid of politicians who prioritise banks and corporates over the people they are meant to be working for, The banks got bailed out, we got sold out.

so what your really saying is everyone should vote for socialist parties as that leaves no pro business parties

martinn123 · 08-10-2015 12:18pm

I thing the constituency may be up for a few upsets, this time around

Clare Daly's breaking from Joe Higgins has she built up enough support on her own to keep her seat, I think maybe not.

While there has traditionally been enough support in North Dublin for at least on FG seat, who will keep it this time

Dr Reilly's demotion from Health, his financial tribulations, and his lack of standing within the party, I think he might be in trouble

Alan Farrell, to me, does not have much of a profile outside his base in Malahide, certainly not North of the M1 anyway, I think he might just shade it over Reilly.

If the Labour vote is as weak here as the polls suggest, Brendan Ryan is in trouble.

So my prediction, losses for Daly, Reilly and Ryan.

cowzerp · 08-10-2015 12:37pm

neris wrote: »

so what your really saying is everyone should vote for socialist parties as that leaves no pro business parties

No I am saying parties that HAVE screwed us cannot be supported by right minded people, It is time we vote for people who will help the people 1st, not banks and companies like Apple who owe us Billions that the Government are fighting Europe to stop them having to pay it!

Voting for FG, FF, Labour, The Greens and Renua who are FG2 is stockholm syndrome at its best.

pinkypinky · 08-10-2015 2:23pm

I have no particular allegiance at the moment but I think Brendan Ryan and James Reilly will be in trouble. I hear very little from BR on either a national or local level. Reilly's demotion will have damaged him too. I suspect Daly will keep her seat though.

The Hill Billy · 08-10-2015 2:54pm

Brendan Ryan is very active at a local level - weekly clinics & all that. Probably just doesn't shout about it. He is far enough removed from the Labour leadership that he hasn't been tarnished by their performance. However, he may suffer from general displeasure with the party as a whole.

James Reilly on the other hand was trying to be a crowd-pleaser with getting the new health centres set up in the constituency & all that. However, after the larger health fiasco & not doing much since - I don't think he'll be returned again.

I'm saying nothing about the rest of them.

martinn123 · 08-10-2015 3:48pm

The Hill Billy wrote: »

James Reilly on the other hand was trying to be a crowd-pleaser with getting the new health centres set up in the constituency & all that. However, after the larger health fiasco & not doing much since - I don't think he'll be returned again.

I wonder if he will park that Eco/Bio Diesel jeep, up by the M1 exit at lissenhall again, with his name all over it.
Should be about 20 miles put up on it since the last Election.

Dizzyblonde · 08-10-2015 5:21pm

The Hill Billy wrote: »

Brendan Ryan is very active at a local level - weekly clinics & all that. Probably just doesn't shout about it. He is far enough removed from the Labour leadership that he hasn't been tarnished by their performance. However, he may suffer from general displeasure with the party as a whole.

James Reilly on the other hand was trying to be a crowd-pleaser with getting the new health centres set up in the constituency & all that. However, after the larger health fiasco & not doing much since - I don't think he'll be returned again.

I'm saying nothing about the rest of them.

I have to agree. Like Sean before him, he works very hard at a local level and that matters more to me than what party someone belongs to. Especially now we're all so disillusioned.

None of the parties have a strong leader, which is a pity.

jwwb · 08-10-2015 5:30pm

Dizzyblonde wrote: »

I have to agree. Like Sean before him, he works very hard at a local level and that matters more to me than what party someone belongs to. Especially now we're all so disillusioned.

None of the parties have a strong leader, which is a pity.

Just looking for examples. The one time I went to see him at a clinic he wasn't there and got no response to my email I subsequently sent him.

Dizzyblonde · 08-10-2015 7:19pm

Ah it's all the little stuff like turning up at schools and community centres for meetings, prizegivings etc. Personally I found Brendan's office a huge help with a community matter.

adamshare01 · 08-10-2015 7:20pm

Anyone who votes for FF, FG, Labour, The Greens or Renua which are just FG Rejects are fools, it's time to get rid of politicians who prioritise banks and corporates over the people they are meant to be working for, The banks got bailed out, we got sold out.

jwwb · 09-10-2015 9:09am

Dizzyblonde wrote: »

Ah it's all the little stuff like turning up at schools and community centres for meetings, prizegivings etc. Personally I found Brendan's office a huge help with a community matter.

As you might imagine the issue that I was concerned about was pretty important to me and my family and the lack of acknowledgement was not impressive.

I personally do not rate the turning up at funerals and prizegivings by public representatives and find it more of a sign of the poor state of this democracy.

Separately, as you can see on this thread, there has been a serious fracturing of the community in the last number of years. Perhaps I have lead a sheltered life but I have never seen things as bad.

Dizzyblonde · 09-10-2015 10:48am

jwwb wrote: »

As you might imagine the issue that I was concerned about was pretty important to me and my family and the lack of acknowledgement was not impressive.

I personally do not rate the turning up at funerals and prizegivings by public representatives and find it more of a sign of the poor state of this democracy.

Separately, as you can see on this thread, there has been a serious fracturing of the community in the last number of years. Perhaps I have lead a sheltered life but I have never seen things as bad.

Did you chase it up with more emails/phonecalls?

I'm just happy that we in Rivervalley are back in the Fingal fold for the next general election - voting in the last one was surreal. I reckon that voting for any party will involve a huge leap of faith because no party really stands out for its leadership or strength. They're all marvellous when they're on the back benches.

I'm not very politically savvy so I base my choices on people who seem to me to be hard working and sincere, on both a local and national level. And people who are professional in whatever they do. We saw a lot of independents elected last time and some of them are wasting seats in the Dáil, in my opinion.

dslamjack · 09-10-2015 2:35pm

Brendan Ryan is in my book an honest solid hard working local TD(a rare breed in a house full of wasters).
Have any of the parties indicated or said they would reform the Dail and Senate?.
Or are they all going to let the gravy train coast along as normal.
I some times wonder if they make up the proper numbers to meet the quorum , there are that few in attendance in the chamber most day's.
The way the house's are ran, as well as the way Government is run need's to change.
This crack of disappearing for week's on end has to stop , attendance to both house's should be based on a business model and the basic working week that the majority of us adhere too.
This pairing system should be out the door as well.
The committee system badly need's reform in both house's.
Committee's should have the power(thru the courts) to summon , arrest and detain where need's arise to protect the common good,instead of the current position of wagging a finger on bended knee's at those who bother to turn up.
Executive power need's to be wielded as well as held to account,Minister Varadkar speaking during the week to RTE, states , he has no power to sack anyone in the HSE only in his own dept of health, what a set up , he should have the power to sack whole board's of management if need be, or the whole sorry lot , as President Reagan did with air traffic controllers some year's ago in the states.
There's no point having a dog and barking yourself as they used to say.
When Gaybo done his morning show years ago ,ministers and govt dept's listened with crooked ears in case they or the dept were mentioned in a bad light or being made a show off by Gay, Ministers would reach out and down on the phone after even being mentioned on that show,ministers were held to account by the court of public opinion, and that in all politicians book is the only court that matters.
But things can change , looking back at the late great Tony Gregory , God we could do with 20/30 of him now, there are those who can effect change like Lemass + Browne and ye live in hope that those that are given the gift of the people ,don't succumb to the the rub of the silk suit and the chateau lafite 1868 ,for the moment we'll wait and see, at least we seen the hun off last night.

dslamjack · 10-10-2015 11:18am

I would hope that all democratically minded folk would stand shoulder to shoulder in denouncing the bully boy / rent a mob thug's that were responsible for the scenes outside Bluebell Community Centre on thursday night.
This kind of thuggery has no place in a democratic republic.
James Reilly has the same rights as every other citizen, the right to be treated with dignity and respect and to go about their business without fear and intimidation or the fear of being physically injured while doing their job.
It is well known that these crews have threatened various service workers on estates around Dublin.
This is the work of bottom feeders of the worst kind ,it makes no difference if they be right or left wing thugs.
If it had been up to me that night in November , I would have called the Minister for Defence and the Chief of Staff of the army , declared a state of martial law , rounded up the entire Finna Fail party, bankers etc , and summarily executed the bloody lot of them, and made the families pay for the bullets like they do in China.
But I for my sins am a socialist democratic republican , the law is the law and as soon as some loony group goes off on one , half cocked , all hell breaks loose, the history of the 1920/30's teach us that.
The RIGHT TO PROTEST is one of the most cherished right's in any democracy ,as soon as those who organise protest's allow them to be hijacked and descend or revert to violence,they erode and undermine the most basic of human rights and a foundation stone of our grate (but still imperfect democracy a hundred years on)republic.
Violence -- No -- Never -- Ever

BMJD · 10-10-2015 11:49pm

I just killed a few brain cells by watching a video posted on one of the many anti-austerity facebook groups, some loudmouth harassing Brendan Ryan as he was canvassing/leafleting today, there is another video of them preventing his car from moving, and more photos of him being harassed at his own clinic, along with insults, threats, accusations against him and a couple of his helpers.

Looking back at the 2014 Local Election results, it's obvious that there is a silent majority who aren't stupid enough to fall for this "make the rich pay/blame the banks/we won't pay for anything" nonsense that these people continue to peddle to anyone who will listen. It annoys the crap out of me, I recognise two of the "protesters" in one set of photos, neither of them have worked a day in the last decade or so that I have known them.

For the record, I don't support any political party/movement, I try to judge each candidate on their own merits, depending on the election. I am, however, a supporter of democracy; if you are vehemently opposed to someone then go stand against them and get your mandate - harassing people with a poxy phone camera is caveman politics. IMO

kennyb3 · 12-10-2015 5:10pm

Am I the only one who votes based on which party they want in government and not based on local politicians?

Brendan Ryan is probably the best TD in the area however I won't be voting for Labour

Dizzyblonde · 12-10-2015 7:52pm

kennyb3 wrote: »

Am I the only one who votes based on which party they want in government and not based on local politicians?

Brendan Ryan is probably the best TD in the area however I won't be voting for Labour

It throws me into a quandary, voting on a local level vs a national level.

pinkypinky · 12-10-2015 8:31pm

I have voted both ways in different elections!

Arthur Daley · 12-10-2015 8:40pm

kennyb3 wrote: »

Am I the only one who votes based on which party they want in government and not based on local politicians?

Brendan Ryan is probably the best TD in the area however I won't be voting for Labour

People say they want change (end parish pump politics etc.) and then go and do the same thing over and over again. So FF will get a fair bounce back this election as plenty will forgive them after a whole 5years out in the sin bin.

It's hard to see how we won't get fg/ff coalition in 2016. It's the only numbers I can see stacking up right now.

koutoubia · 13-10-2015 1:25pm

Arthur Daley wrote: »

People say they want change (end parish pump politics etc.) and then go and do the same thing over and over again. So FF will get a fair bounce back this election as plenty will forgive them after a whole 5years out in the sin bin.

It's hard to see how we won't get fg/ff coalition in 2016. It's the only numbers I can see stacking up right now.

They maybe the only numbers that will make a govt but I cant really see the old time FF'ers who have generations of FF in their blood/lineage playing second fiddle to Enda et al!

I am genuinely at a loss to see who I will vote for.
I can tell you who I WONT be voting for.
FF. Never did vote.Never will.
Labour. Turned over on almost every policy they promised to implement.
FG. I voted for O'Reilly the last time.I wont waste my vote like that again!

dsmythy · 13-10-2015 9:07pm

Renua followed by FG for me. Purely national choice unless one of the candidates has an absolute disaster.

cowzerp · 14-10-2015 2:11pm

dslamjack wrote: »

Brendan Ryan is in my book an honest solid hard working local TD(a rare breed in a house full of wasters).

What has Ryan done so great? he voted in all the austerity measures that ruined this country and is Labour through and through and i don't mean the old Labour, i mean the right wing look after the corporates labour.

BMJD wrote: »

I just killed a few brain cells by watching a video posted on one of the many anti-austerity facebook groups, some loudmouth harassing Brendan Ryan as he was canvassing/leafleting today, there is another video of them preventing his car from moving, and more photos of him being harassed at his own clinic, along with insults, threats, accusations against him and a couple of his helpers.

The video were Ryan's back up assaulted the man taking the video which is his right? The back up was the only thug in that video, Ryan has played his role in all this austerity and it needs to be highlighted, the fact he has the neck to knock on doors show's what sort of a clown he is and how naive the voters are.
A vote for Ryan or O'Reilly is a vote endorsing and mandating 5 more years of Austerity, Stockholm syndrome anyone!

BMJD · 15-10-2015 12:35am

cowzerp wrote: »

What has Ryan done so great? he voted in all the austerity measures that ruined this country and is Labour through and through and i don't mean the old Labour, i mean the right wing look after the corporates labour.

Far be it for me to defend Brendan Ryan or Labour, but if you think that those austerity measures are what ruined the country, you either have a short memory or you lack basic economic knowledge.

cowzerp wrote: »

The video were Ryan's back up assaulted the man taking the video which is his right? The back up was the only thug in that video, Ryan has played his role in all this austerity and it needs to be highlighted, the fact he has the neck to knock on doors show's what sort of a clown he is and how naive the voters are.
A vote for Ryan or O'Reilly is a vote endorsing and mandating 5 more years of Austerity, Stockholm syndrome anyone!

Laughable excuse for trying to provoke the man into doing something stupid. Who do these people think they are, deciding who can or can't canvas or leaflet an area? If you don't like Mr. Ryan, don't vote for him. It's also laughable that you label that man a thug whilst the comments contain threats and allegations like this:

You smug looking ****ing p****

Such a dig in the face he would have got. Ya big fat ****in paedo lookin c**t

Fat scumbag deliberately banging off the man, typical of the labour traitor party.
They've lost the working class vote.

id have slapped his fat piggie head off him .this is whats needed run the tratiors out of every estate

Let me at that fat p****!!!

Fat sod....plank of wood to the face sort him out

Id love to wipe the ****ing smirk off his ugly ****ing fat mush
I'd run few pounds fat if the fat ****

Dirt bird come near my dr ****e bag

Apologies for the language/awful spelling, grammar etc.

Brendan Ryan, and Labour/FG have a mandate whether you like it or not, just because you don't agree with them doesn't entitle you and/or others to act like fascists. You'll have your democratic opportunity to do something about it soon if it bothers you that much.

tobsey · 15-10-2015 11:35am

cowzerp wrote: »

What has Ryan done so great? he voted in all the austerity measures that ruined this country and is Labour through and through and i don't mean the old Labour, i mean the right wing look after the corporates labour.

No no no. You have that very wrong. He voted for the austerity measures which have restored the country after it was ruined by the previous governments.

FF ruined this country to the point were we were taking in 20 billion in tax less than what we were spending. By next year the deficit will be less than 2%. They have fixed the economy. The next government can use that to fix the social problems such as housing, health and transport. I for one hope as close to the same government is returned as possible. Hopefully without the likes of Renua and SDs and independents as they'll just get more than their numbers deserve as they will hold the crucial votes to the get the numbers up.

Absolutely no way to FF or SF.

jwwb · 15-10-2015 5:39pm

BMJD wrote: »

Brendan Ryan, and Labour/FG have a mandate whether you like it or not, just because you don't agree with them doesn't entitle you and/or others to act like fascists. You'll have your democratic opportunity to do something about it soon if it bothers you that much.

We got to post 24 without someone being called a fascist.

Pity

koutoubia · 17-10-2015 2:08pm

jwwb wrote: »

We got to post 24 without someone being called a fascist.

Pity

Godwins law hasnt kicked in yet (technically) so all is good!

traco · 17-10-2015 3:38pm

Had the Greens canvassing for Joe O'Brien in Portmarnock today, nothing of substance. A4 flyer with huge text and saying nothing. Straight in the bin - the green one at that.

I'm starting to dispair as between all the political correctness, social dogooders and passengers on other socially acceptable manifestos they are all saying what they think wants to be heard. Nobody running for real political change from the top down, just get in and look after yourself. But why would turkeys vote for Christmas???

koutoubia · 17-10-2015 3:44pm

The Greens got their chance and make b**ls of it.
A mess of two tiered car tax system.
Lashing on extra (carbon) tax onto heating oil,coal etc in the middle of the worst freeze in living memory without giving people a viable alternative.
Putting a tax on vitals doesnt make you use less of it! It just makes it more expensive!

cowzerp · 17-10-2015 3:56pm

BMJD wrote: »

Far be it for me to defend Brendan Ryan or Labour, but if you think that those austerity measures are what ruined the country, you either have a short memory or you lack basic economic knowledge.

yet you decided to defend the parasite that voted to rob from the poor to give to the rich

BMJD wrote: »

Laughable excuse for trying to provoke the man into doing something stupid. Who do these people think they are, deciding who can or can't canvas or leaflet an area? If you don't like Mr. Ryan, don't vote for him. It's also laughable that you label that man a thug whilst the comments contain threats and allegations like this:

Only provoking that happened was the thug who assaulted the man who has every right to film in public whether you like it or not.

BMJD wrote: »

Brendan Ryan, and Labour/FG have a mandate whether you like it or not, just because you don't agree with them doesn't entitle you and/or others to act like fascists. You'll have your democratic opportunity to do something about it soon if it bothers you that much.

False, Brendan Ryan's Mandate was to abolish water charges and to help the less well off, he has no mandate as he lost it as soon as he turned his back on the promises he got voted in based on, and he has just become part of Fine Gael who are nothing like what the Labour Party is meant to stand for, James Connolly would destroy these people if he was around now.

tobsey wrote: »

No no no. You have that very wrong. He voted for the austerity measures which have restored the country after it was ruined by the previous governments.

That is complete and utter scutter, the employment figures for example are counting all the jobsbridge people as employed, and that is essentially slave labour, it also doesn't take into account the hundreds of thousands of our young men and women forced to emigrate and unable to return

This country might have improved for the elites and a small few people but has not improved for the working class and most middle class people, Fact is Fine Gael and Labour lied to get voted in and only got the votes as a protest to Fianna Fail and the Greens and they just carried on and out done them in screwing the people and sealed the bank debts into sovereign debts that we will be paying long after they are all on the pension gravy train.

Housing crisis at an all time high, Trolleys in hospitals at all time high-actually you're lucky to get a trolley now, homelessness at an all time high and people working for far below a living wage is also at record numbers. That is the reality behind Brendan Ryan and the rest of these parasites legacy's

Dublin Fingal General Election

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