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Tuesday, 21 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for week of 21-27 Feb 2023

-- Temperatures will average 2-3 deg below normal values despite a mild start today.

-- Rainfalls will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal.

-- Sunshine will amount to near normal or slightly above.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild to mid-day in the west, and to late afternoon in the east. An interval of rain with some blustery showers will develop over western counties mid-day and those will arrive on the east coast by late afternoon, lasting into the evening. Highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT will turn sharply colder, with showers becoming mixed and wintry on hills by morning. Lows 1 to 4 C. Moderate southwest winds will veer to northwest 40-60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY partly cloudy to overcast and cold with outbreaks of sleety rain or (mostly on higher terrain) wet snow. Winds northwest 40-60 km/hr, adding a chill to highs of only 4-8 C.

THURSDAY will be more settled with somewhat reduced winds, sunny skies giving way to partly cloudy or overcast by afternoon with a few showers. Morning frosts, lows -2 to +3 C. Afternoon highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY, mostly settled and pleasant if a bit on the cool side, with at least some sunshine each day, light winds with some easterly breezes across southern counties. Lows -2 to +3 C will give some inland frosts. Afternoon highs 7 to 11 C. Feeling milder in parts of the west.

NEXT WEEK this light easterly flow may get somewhat stronger, but changes from day to day will be rather slight, with a cooling trend possible, as the somewhat stronger east winds pull in some colder air from central Europe. Rather cloudy at times, with isolated showers mainly near hills in south. Highs during the week may fall back slowly to around 7-9 C. Nights could be frosty in places. Eventually an even colder northeast flow is quite possible, and this could see daytime readings of 5 to 7 C, with the risk of mixed wintry showers near east coast and perhaps more widespread mixed falls at times. Eventually this colder spell will moderate and temperatures will gradually return to the 9-12 C range with occasional rain as the blocking high pressure moves out of the way allowing Atlantic frontal systems to make an appearance. Once again, changes from one regime to another may be quite gradual with small day to day changes.

My local weather on Monday featured a little wet snow and rain at times, the colder air is massing to our north getting ready to rush in after midnight and change the sleety mix back to snow, meanwhile temperatures have stayed just around 1 C all day. It will be falling steadily on Tuesday and reaching lows near -15 C later in the week. The plains states are bracing for our storm later in the week, as it recurves around Kansas and heads towards Wisconsin. The "twin cities" region of Minnesota are being warned to expect a blizzard with 40 cm snowfalls and strong winds. At the same time this storm will keep it rather mild in the Midwest, lower Great Lakes and northeastern states. They may see temperatures close to 15 C in the warm sector of this storm.

Thursday, 23 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, colder than average by 2-3 deg, rather dry, and while some sunshine here and there, about average in that department.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, becoming more cloudy by mid-day, with isolated showers developing, most likely over higher parts of the north and west. Chilly but winds generally more moderate, northwest to north 30-50 km/hr. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT rather cloudy with some clear intervals developing, scattered light frosts. Lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY a mixture of cloud and sunshine, moderate north to northeast breezes, cool. Highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy with a few longer sunny intervals in parts of the inland north and central counties, morning frosts. Lows -3 to +2 C, highs 6 to 9 C. Easterly breezes more of a factor near south coast, 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, lows -3 to +2 C, highs 6 to 10 C. Easterly breezes continuing.

MONDAY and TUESDAY both mostly cloudy, a few mixed wintry showers may develop over higher parts of the south around Monday night or Tuesday morning, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Winds east to southeast 40-60 km/hr.

The rest of the week looks only a bit milder and will probably stay dry. Highs 7-11 C with slight frosts at night.

The latest guidance returns to the idea of colder air arriving from the northeast around the end of the weekend of 4-5 March into the following week, and now adds a reinforcing shot of quite cold northerly flow towards mid-month. Some push back from the Atlantic is shown but it currently seems to be weak and unable to establish much of a presence. But all of this is rather speculative and results could be considerably different from what the guidance now shows for this further outlook period.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy and very cold with a biting northeast wind adding chill to the -10 C temperatures. This is about the coldest we've had this winter apart from perhaps one day a few months ago. No further snow apart from a few stray flakes. Snow and ice have hit parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region with very mild temperatures further south. This low will collapse today and redevelop near Boston giving New England a wintry mix. Meanwhile parts of southern California are bracing for an unusual snowfall that will extend down to near sea level at times in coming days, as a stray portion of the polar vortex drops south into that region. Measurable snowfalls are quite rare in Los Angeles near sea level although the local mountains regularly see some snow, although not as much as is predicted for this event. It may also snow in Las Vegas later this week.

Saturday, 25 February, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for week of 25 Feb to 3 Mar 2023 --

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal.

-- Generally dry, with isolated showers.

-- Near normal amounts of sunshine possibly, despite considerable cloud some days.

-- Winds light to moderate easterly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature increasing cloud by afternoon, but some pleasant sunny spells if rather cold this morning. Highs 7 to 11 C, mildest near west coast.

TONIGHT a few breaks in the persistent overcast, most of those further west, scattered frost as a result there. Lows -1 to +3 C.

SUNDAY rather cloudy and cool, highs 7 to 9 C.

MONDAY cloudy with a few breaks, isolated showers, lows -1 to 3 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

The rest of next week will see little change and this cool, generally dry regime will extend into weekend of 4-5 March. Somewhat colder air will try to make a run from northern Scotland towards parts of Ireland around Tuesday 7th March, at the moment it appears that the impact of that wintry cold will be moderate for Ireland and more significant in Britain. As a result, with the increasing background normal temperatures, this colder air mass will likely just prolong a similar temperature trend as this coming week. Further cold outbreaks seem likely but there could be some variations as the Atlantic low tries to find ways back into Europe.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and very cold, highs near -8 C, and a high overcast is spreading in overnight but it has already fallen to -15 C here. Snow is expected at times over the weekend. The unusual snow event for southern California higher elevations is underway with the low approaching Los Angeles now. This will eventually spawn a low over Colorado heading for the Great Lakes Sunday-Monday, and that will produce a coastal low giving snow to some parts of the northeastern states on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Monday, 27 February, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue dry and cool, 1 to 2 deg below normal temperatures, near average amounts of sunshine. Light easterly winds, later more calm overall.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, highs 7 to 10 C. Light easterly winds sometimes reaching 30-50 km/hr in south mainly.

TONIGHT will bring a mixture of cloud and clear intervals, lows -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, cool with light easterly breezes. Highs 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY, little change, except for isolated showers near east and south coast, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY may see more sunshine, with the high no longer situated to the north but overhead, the winds will be light and variable. Lows -3 to +3 C, and highs 8 to 12 C.

WEEKEND 4-5 MARCH and MONDAY 6th MARCH will continue dry and still rather cool in parts of the east and north, sunny intervals and generally dry, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 8 to 13 C. Colder air will be drifting south aross Britain at this time and temperatures there may drop a few degrees for several days; at the moment this seems unlikely to include Ireland.

By TUESDAY 7th, with some uncertainty on timing, the high will finally break down, remnants dropping further south and allowing a more variable westerly flow with some unsettled days in the mix. Temperatures will be generally close to mid-March normals (highs 9-12 C) and nights will become mostly frost-free again.

My local weather on Sunday started out with 15-18 cms of snow overnight. This gave way to a dry cloudy afternoon and highs near -2 C. Clear skies overnight but perhaps a bit more snow during the day. Some severe storms broke out around north Texas and Oklahoma, from a frontal system that will weaken today approaching the lower Great Lakes; by tonight a more energetic wave will replace that one on the east coast and snow will develop from New York to Boston. Amounts may not be all that heavy (5-15 cms).

Wednesday, 1 March, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue cool and dry with mostly cloudy skies, enough brief sunny intervals to reach perhaps half to two-thirds of the normal early March amounts (which average 3.5 to 4.0 hours a day). It may be generally brighter in the inland north and near the west coast. Light to moderate east to northeast winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and cool, with northeast breezes 30-50 km/hr at times. Some brief showers likely in Leinster, spreading to east Munster later in the day. Amounts very slight (trace to 2 mm). Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy and there may be outbreaks of rain or drizzle near the south coast. Lows 2 to 5 C south, -1 to 3 C north.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue very similar with mostly cloudy skies, perhaps a slight clearing trend by Friday especially in parts of the north, highs both days 6 to 9 C, lows Friday morning 1 to 4 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, a few brief showers, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool northeast winds 40-60 km/hr adding some chill, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY quite cold for early March, isolated showers could become wintry on hills, hail possible at lower elevations (although in general many places avoiding these showers will remain dry). Some sunshine at times. Lows -3 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

At the moment it appears that the rather weak Atlantic regime will try to push back mid-week, but may fail on the first attempt Wednesday 8th and allow a few more quite cold days, before a more successful warming attempt follows; however, the regime that follows may just be a more unsettled variety of chilly air masses after one or two mild days, as there are signs of a northwest turn to the upper winds after the current block breaks down. So I feel that March is quite likely to average 1 to 2 deg below normal values, and with such a dry start, it may only return to relatively normal amounts of precipitation for an overall dry outcome.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few intervals of light snow giving a top up 3-5 cm amount. No sign of warmer weather around here with several weeks of arctic dominated regimes over most of North America. It is not unusual for a generally mild winter in the east to be followed by a rather cold March and that seems to be underway this year.

Friday, 3 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the period 3-9 Mar --

-- Temperatures very cool and dropping from current levels to near-record cold next week.

-- Generally dry, some outbreaks of wintry showers will not amount to much more than 25% of normal precipitation, but some locally heavy hail or snow showers are possible next week, and different events will affect different regions, even so, hit or miss overall.

-- Some sunshine at times not providing much or any warmth, near seasonal averages of about 3h a day.

-- Moderate northeast to north winds sometimes adding significant chill.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, and a few more brief and drizzly showers or hail, cold with northeast breezes, highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and cold, lows 1 to 4 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with a few isolated wintry showers, highs 5 to 8 C. Winds rather light on Saturday will turn more north to northwest on Sunday with an increase in the distribution of wintry showers at least in the north. Lows Sunday -1 to +3 C.

MONDAY turning very cold with northerly winds 40-70 km/hr, passing wintry showers, and risk of disruptive snow showers 3-8 cm in Ulster and some other northern counties. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs 3 to 6 C, some daytime readings even colder after snow falls.

TUESDAY unseasonably cold with mixed wintry showers, raw northerly winds 50-80 km/hr adding chill to lows of about -1 C and highs near 5 C. Some accumulating snow or hail showers mostly on hills but possible at times lower down.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY continuing cold with nearly calm winds turning easterly and picking up to 30-50 km/hr, sleet or snow possible, a watch situation at this early stage. Lows near -3 C and possibly lower where skies clear, highs 2 to 5 C. Some guidance shows this event slowly pushing back the cold air leading to a transition to rain. Here again, watching all possible outcomes and not too convinced that would be right either.

Another push of very cold air may well follow this frontal boundary event by around Friday 10th, details may change of course, so we'll just say that cold air could dominate for quite some time, guidance is currently rather uncertain and divided past about five days.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with frequent snow showers leaving yet another 15-20 cm and our pack is now up to 50 cms. The high was around -2 C. A strong storm pushed into Texas with multiple tornados and straight line damaging winds around Dallas-Fort Worth. This system will move into Ohio later today and follow a similar evolution to the previous one, reforming on the coast near Long Island. A heavy snowfall is expected in upstate NY, eastern Ontario, southern Quebec and northern New England Friday night and Saturday. The severe storms will also track east although they may not be as violent for the southeastern states later today.

Sunday, 5 March, 2023 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ... cold to about Friday, then milder, overall average about 3 deg below normal. Some significant precipitation likely near end of the week, but fairly dry until then away from Ulster which might see more frequent mixed precipitation. Some sunshine at times may amount to near normal totals. Winds generally northerly at first, then easterly, and moderate in speed, or nearly calm at times mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and rather cold. There will be more frequent showers developing in northern counties, feeding south from Ulster's north coast this morning to cover most of Ulster and some parts of north Leinster and Connacht later. Highs 6 to 9 C. Winds north to northwest 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT the showers may turn wintry across northern hills before dying off, leaving partly cloudy skies and local frosts, lows -1 to +3 C.

MONDAY turning colder, morning lows -1 to 3 C, with winds increasing to northerly 40-60 km/hr during the morning to mid-day. Frequent showers of cold rain, sleet, hail, and snow on hills in north. Highs 3 to 7 C. Some accumulations by evening and overnight into Tuesday. Central, eastern and southern counties may stay largely dry with a few sunny breaks and stray wintry showers possible. Highs 4 to 8 C in those regions.

TUESDAY continued cold with further wintry showers. Winds northwest to north 30-50 km/hr turning light easterly across south coast counties where rain or sleet could develop into Wednesday morning. Further north, the winds will not turn easterly but instead will die out to calm. Lows -2 to +2 C, highs 4 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will have quite a frosty start away from an overcast south coast, where lows may be 2-4 C; otherwise expect lows in the range of -4 to -1 C. Skies will be clear for a time and then variable layers of mostly high cloud will spread in, with winds fairly light but generally easterly in direction. A disturbance will move past to the south and at this point it looks like only some coastal sections of the southwest might see much of the sleety rain or wet snow associated with it. But this forecast is uncertain enough to add a chance of sleet or snow further north, albeit less than 30%. Highs will struggle to reach 5 C, especially if mixed precipitation breaks out.

By THURSDAY, more active frontal zones will push slowly in and raise temperatures across parts of Munster back to more normal values 6-9 C. Further north the cold east wind will continue longer and sleet or snow may break out, with a cold rain near sea level. Lows -1 to +1 C and highs away from Munster 4-6 C.

The outlook remains low confidence much further out than four or five days; some guidance is showing a milder spell for a few days with cold air not pushed very far back to the north and northeast, suggesting that it could easily return in any gaps between frontal systems. Also there are signs of a second cold spell developing towards the equinox around the 20th to 25th.

My local weather on Saturday started out with 10-15 cm fluffy powder snow and then skies cleared with a few light flurries blowing through during the afternoon, temperatures near -2 C, with a few large snowflakes drifting down but no real additional accumulation. Our pack has increased to a seasonal peak value of 55 cm despite slight compaction and melting each day, the amounts of snow coming down are greater than what we lose from the spring sunshine. Snow amounted to nearly 25 cm in parts of Ontario, upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but most of Massachusetts had only 5-10 cm totals, with mostly rain or sleet in CT and RI. This storm also hit Nova Scotia and is now approaching southern Newfoundland.

Tuesday, 7 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, very cold for two more days, then milder in stages although some brief returns of cold to northern counties at times. Some outbreaks of sleet and snow possible, could turn heavy in north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain very cold with wintry showers. Some accumulations of snow on hills, 2 to 5 cm possible. Sunny breaks will become more frequent in some central and southern counties by afternoon. Highs 2 to 5 C north, 5 to 8 C south.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, some local ice fog, and very cold. Lows -2 to -6 C.

WEDNESDAY some dimmed sunshine through light fog layers or higher cloud above that, very cold. Highs 3 to 6 C. Some isolated wintry showers possible, and snow or sleet may move into the southwest and west around evening to midnight time frame.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT outbreaks of sleet and snow, guidance has split into one milder scenario and a host of colder ones, so with some lack of confidence I will go with the majority of guidance and say 70% chance of accumulating snow across most of the north, about 40% chance Dublin to Galway, and lower risks in the south although higher risk on any high ground. Temperatures steady -2 to +1 C for most, +1 to +4 C south coast.

THURSDAY this northern snow and sleet storm (mixed falls central counties) will continue slowly east, several more hours of mixed wintry falls likely in central regions, rain in the south, and some areas of heavy snow possible in the north, especially on hills. Total snowfall potential is 15-25 cm in some northern locations (including all higher portions of NI, Donegal, and other counties in the Republic of Ireland that are north of a Connemara to Louth corridor). Mixed rain and snow may leave some slushy accumulations of 2-7 cms in central counties and 5-15 cms on higher terrain in the south. Brisk east winds in most areas north of the storm track, 40-70 km/hr. Some areas of slacker winds in rain, drizzle and fog closer to south coast. Any strong southwest winds likely to remain off the coast and will move towards northern France.

Temperatures on Thursday steady in the north -1 to +2 C, 2 to 4 C central, 4 to 8 C near south coast and some distance inland (into central counties if that one outlier of guidance is correct). Colder air returning on northeast winds later in the day as the precipitation moves east.

FRIDAY quite cold, mostly cloudy, outbreaks of sleet and snow possible, cold rain in parts of south. Lows -4 to +1 C, highs 3 to 7 C.

SATURDAY snow, sleet and rain bands moving steadily north and turning milder by afternoon. Winds southeast to southwest 50-70 km/hr during this transition. Lows -1 to +2 C, highs 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY windy and mild with showers. Some chance of it turning very windy at times. Highs near 12 C.

This mild intrusion will last about two days, ending some time Monday 13th with another cold spell developing then but it may not last very long as a milder trend develops after mid-month.

My local weather was cloudy with a few breaks, and milder with highs close to 4 C. A very prolonged and slow thaw is probably about to start, by the looks of the charts, a lot of days will be in that range for the next two or three weeks, with more wet snow or drizzle likely.

Thursday, 9 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS are similar to yesterday's report, but will not be updated until storm has moved through.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a sleety cold rain to many parts of the south and east, to about the line from Galway Bay to Louth. Alternating intervals of sleet, wet snow and rain or ice pellets possible near this zone. Further north, heavy wet snow except mixing with rain near sea level at times. Snow accumulations in many parts of Connacht and Ulster, with east winds 30-50 km/hr throughout, except southeast 40-60 km/hr near south coast. Travel will become difficult in parts of Connacht and Ulster, also Longford and Westmeath, and higher portions of other counties. Highs 5-8 C near south coast, 2-5 C in midlands, most of Leinster, and 1 or 2 C in Connacht and Ulster (readings near zero C at times in heavy snow). Snow accumulating rather gradually at first, the best period for accumulation comes more towards evening, but some places will have 5 cm cover by afternoon. Rainfalls of 20-30 mm possible in parts of central and southern counties.

TONIGHT snow will continue across parts of Connacht and Ulster with winds backing to northeast then north 50-80 km/hr. Some blowing and drifting of snow likely and travel strongly discouraged. Near blizzard conditions possible. Temperatures will edge down to about -1 C during the final phase of snowfall, and to -5 C after it clears (but some low cloud and blowing snow may continue). These harsh conditions will also start to move south into the midlands and Leinster, and adjacent portions of Munster, by about 8 p.m., rain or sleet may then change to heavy snow with winds northeast 40-70 km/hr. Temperatures will fall to about zero C in the heavy snow and to -3 C after it ends. Parts of west Munster may see more variable forms of precipitation as it turns colder in north to northwest winds, temperatures 1-3 C. Snow will definitely accumulate on hills in all regions. By end of this storm event, accumulations of at least 5-10 cm likely in many parts of Connacht, Ulster, north Leinster, and north midlands, with 10-15 cm on some hilly terrain. A covering of 2-5 cm likely by late tonight in counties further south, most of that will fall from midnight to 0400h. Wind chills to -10 C in exposed areas. Roads will become icy, and in some cases may become impassable, during the height of this storm.

FRIDAY will be very cold with a mixture of cloud and sun. Winds northerly 40-60 km/hr will ease to easterly 30-50 km/hr later. Highs 2-5 C. Slow melting of snow may produce slushy and dangerous road travel conditions. Snow pack will remain 5-15 cm on higher ground in north and some other hilly areas further south.

SATURDAY will become milder in stages, snow, sleet and rain will move north gradually, snow amounts look fairly minimal at this point with these warm fronts, but could amount to 2-5 cm in a few cases. Morning lows of -4 to +2 C will yield to milder late afternoon readings of 7-10 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be quite mild with occasional rain (10-15 mm expected). Some flooding risks from combined rain and snow melt in northern counties. Winds moderate to strong southwest 40-70 km/hr increasing to 60-90 km/hr at times on Monday. Highs both days 10-13 C and mild on Sunday night (5-8 C). Turning sharply colder with snow flurries Monday evening and overnight, winds northwest 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be windy and cold with partial clearing, highs near 4 C.

It will then be back to milder weather for a few days around Wednesday although some eastern and northern counties may stay cold well into the day while it turns milder more readily in south and west. The pattern beyond this looks variable with a few colder days between brief mild spells.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with highs near 3 C. Clear skies this evening have led to a freeze of all the slush created during the day, but our snow pack away from roads and pavements is still up around 50 cm. Because this is not a very windy location, it's possible to find small structures or walls with an undisturbed cap of snow that looks rather comical now. Also you can see the layering of the six or seven main periods of snow accumulation we have had since November. Apparently this winter has the worst potential for avalanches in western Canada since 2003, and we have had a number of multi-fatality slides in the back country affecting skiers and snowmobilers already, nothing so far that has hit the road network though.

The northeastern states are bracing for a big snowstorm expected Monday and Tuesday. Some places could see all the snow they didn't get all winter, let's say 50-75 cm in some cases. That would be wicked cool as they say in the target area.

Saturday, 11 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 March --

-- Temperatures will average near normal, rather mild after today's cold air departs, for two days, then quite cold Tuesday, more seasonable Wednesday to Friday.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal. There will be some heavier bursts on Sunday than most other days.

-- Sunshine will also be in the 50 to 75 per cent of normal range.

-- Winds rather strong at times Monday and Tuesday, otherwise generally moderate, southwest prevailing but northwest to north Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY some bands of wet snow, sleet and rain will continue to push north, with some accumulations of snow possible on hills, but in general this looks like a brief transition. Heavier snow could break out across Ulster by afternoon. Temperatures will be gradually rising all day, reaching about 7-9 C by late afternoon except only 2-5 C in parts of Ulster.

TONIGHT fog and a slight frost could develop in northern Connacht and the midlands by evening as the full push of milder air remains incomplete until well on into the night. Remnants of sleet and light rain will continue on through Ulster. Lows -1 to +3 C in north and east, but 4 to 7 C south and west where the milder air will become well established, with drizzle in places.

SUNDAY will be quite mild with a few breaks in the overcast at first, then increasing cloud followed by outbreaks of rain, 5-10 mm likely. Some flooding will develop from melting hill snow, more generally in Ulster. Highs 10 to 14 C.

MONDAY will continue rather mild becoming very windy by mid-day, southwest 60-90 km/hr, with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will veer to northwest 70-100 km/hr by afternoon and evening. Temperatures will peak early at about 10-12 C then fall off gradually by afternoon.

TUESDAY will be windy and very cold with the risk of wintry showers. Winds northwest to north 50-80 km/hr adding quite a chill to temperatures near -2 C in the morning and only into the 2-4 C range by afternoon. Some sunshine at times with bands of wintry showers leaving small dustings of snow on some higher terrain.

WEDNESDAY will be frosty to start out but milder by afternoon and evening with rain developing, lows near -2 C and highs 10 to 12 C. Becoming quite windy (southeast 50-80 km/hr) by evening and overnight into Thursday.

THURSDAY rain ending, variable cloud with a few showers later, lows near 5 C and highs 9-11 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

Near average temperatures with a few outbreaks of rain will continue through the weekend of 18th-19th and Monday 20th, then it may turn much colder again with northerly winds and some wintry showers quite possible. It may remain rather cold for about a week towards the end of March.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light snow (yet again, 5 cm or so) and highs near -1 C. I posted a picture of our 60 cm snowpack on the cold spell thread. California was hit with another heavy rain producing front. This will race across the country and trigger a snowstorm in New England and New York state on Monday into Tuesday. Some severe weather may accompany the fronts across the southern U.S. over the weekend. A weaker system is dropping small amount of snow in parts of New York and Connecticut but it will move out to sea soon missing eastern New England.

Monday, 13 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for week of 13-19 March --

-- Despite a cold day on Tuesday, enough mild days in the mix to suggest an average 1-2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfalls 75 per cent of normal, to 100 per cent in places.

-- Sunshine about 75 per cent of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become windy and will turn colder after a mild morning to mid-day period with temperatures steady 10-12 C then falling rapidly by afternoon. A few showers and risk of a thunderstorm around the time of the cold front passage most likely inland southwest to midlands. Winds southwest 40-70 km/hr becoming northwest 50-80 km/hr and temperatures falling to 2-4 C.

TONIGHT windy and very cold with wintry showers, snow on hills in Ulster and Connacht, west Munster. Winds continuing northwest 50-80 km/hr, some higher gusts in areas exposed to Atlantic. Clear intervals near east and south coasts. A more organized area of sleety showers or light snow could track across Kerry and west Cork during the period midnight to 0400h. Lows near -2 C and feeling closer to -7 C by morning.

TUESDAY windy and very cold with wintry showers, some snow on hills. Sunny intervals between bands of wintry showers. Winds northwest to north 50-80 km/hr at times during the morning adding a chill to temperatures in the range of -2 (morning lows) to +4 C (mid-day) but less windy by mid-day and afternoon, staying rather cold with highs 4-6 C. Clearing by afternoon in most places and becoming very cold again overnight at least in areas away from the west coast.

WEDNESDAY will start out clear and frosty in the east and north with early morning lows -5 to -2 C. Overcast skies will quickly follow, as the southwest becomes cloudy from about midnight, and temperatures will rise gradually, with a brief interval of sleet or wet snow changing to rain by morning in west Munster, mid-day Connacht and east Munster, and afternoon to evening further east and north. After a nearly calm start winds will increase again from the southeast to south, reaching 50-80 km/hr by mid-day west to the afternoon and overnight hours further east. Highs by late in the day 7-10 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain expected.

THURSDAY will be party cloudy to overcast, and mild after heavy bursts of rain move through early in the day; a few showers are likely after that, with temperatures steady near 10 to 12 C. Winds moderate south-southwest 40-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY (17th) will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and outbreaks of light rain in places. It may be rather misty or even foggy in some northern counties especially. Lows 4-7 C and highs 9-12 C.

SATURDAY looks rather variable and bit cooler with a few brief showery intervals. Lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

SUNDAY will have morning frosts and daytime sunshine with a few cloudy intervals, lows near -1 C and highs 6-8 C.

By MONDAY 20th rain will be pushing back in. The colder high pressure area now looks to be setting up a bit further east than previous guidance but I am half expecting it to be back to the west again at least once this coming week in forecast charts, so let's just say the week of 20th-24th seems likely to be some kind of back and forth between milder Atlantic air masses and cool dry modified arctic air, details to be determined.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast, misty over the nearby hills, and a bit milder too at 2-3 C. A heavy wet snow mixed with a few raindrops has begun to fall overnight and we could see a sloppy mess on the ground by morning with temperatures staying in the range of 0-1 C. Meanwhile a storm system is beginning to form out of the weaker snowfall event now underway in the lower Great Lakes and heavy storms in the southeast states. By tonight this will merge into one powerful low south of Cape Cod and that storm will take dead aim on Boston MA with heavy rains near the coast and heavy snow inland for most of New England. New York City could be on the outer edges of this but further upstate Albany NY will be in on the heavier snowfalls.

Wednesday, 15 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 March --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will not be far from long-term average.

-- Sunshine may run behind normal by 25 per cent or more.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see the last of the cold air quickly removed from parts of the north and east, as any sleet turns to rain. Temperatures will continue to rise until they reach 11-13 C, then will level off. Moderate southerly winds 40-70 km/hr, and 10-15 mm rain expected.

TONIGHT will remain rather mild with fog and drizzle, lows 6 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, and perhaps a brief isolated thunderstorm. Quite mild with highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY will see little change although it may not get quite as warm, with a few showers, misty spells over higher ground, lows 4 to 7 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will continue a bit unsettled with a few showers and temperatures again a bit cooler, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY morning could bring frosts as skies clear overnight, but this will quickly give way to increasing cloud and intervals of rain, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will continue unsettled, with showers or intervals of rain, and perhaps some rather gusty winds at times, highs near 10 C.

From mid-week on, the further outlook is quite unsettled with some risk of colder air working its way through a parade of disturbances bringing rain and occasional strong winds. The details on this probably cannot be pinned down with any useful precision yet (maybe Aidan can do it), but overall it looks rather chilly and sometimes quite wet or windy on charts towards the end of March.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and dry for a change, cool enough in the shade to keep yesterday's slush frozen, but the sun is strong enough now that I felt quite comfortable working outside without a jacket for maybe the first time since mid-October. It's a start. The New England snowstorm will be remembered for highly variable amounts, while Boston and New York City saw almost no snow, you only had to drive about an hour to their northwest or north to find several feet in places, and one spot in southern Vermont had an astounding 108 cm fall (which seemed to verify from visual evidence). In general higher east-facing locations got 50-75 cm totals, places in valleys between mountain ranges got 5-15 cm. The storm is just about done now and circling back towards the east and a much reduced encounter with eastern Canada. Also on Tuesday, southern California got hammered again by torrential downpours, the snow line was up a bit higher than previous storms.

Friday, 17 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same, somewhat milder than average for this time of year, rainfalls fairly close to average, sunshine likely a bit below normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Scattered outbreaks of rain, sometimes briefly heavy, and ending with mist or fog that might clear after a while. Highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT some showers at first but foggy or misty towards dawn, lows 6 to 8 C.

SATURDAY scattered showers moving east and clearing away for some sunny intervals by mid-afternoon. Highs 11-14 C.

SUNDAY increasing cloud, rain spreading into parts of the west, lows 2-5 C and highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY mostly cloudy, intervals of rain becoming more frequent, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY showers or longer intervals of rain, lows 5-8 C and highs 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY windy with frequent showers, lows 6-9 C and highs 8-12 C.

THURSDAY mostly cloudy, occasional rain, lows 5-8 C and highs 8-12 C.

It looks likely to stay unsettled with occasional strong southwest winds and frequent outbreaks of rain for several more days. Temperatures will stay in a similar range although colder air could take over for a day or two during the last week of March. The guidance is probably not reliable enough to try to pin down details of variations that far out, but overall it will be rather cloudy and unsettled.

My local weather was sunny with a bit of higher cloud around. The snow pack prevented temperatures from rising too much, I suspect we would have been close to 10 C without the snow reflecting the sun's warmth but even so it managed to get to about 4 C.

I hope you all have an enjoyable St Patrick's Day despite the showers.

Sunday, 19 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, rather cool later in the week especially, unsettled and sometimes quite wet and windy, particularly near Atlantic coasts.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring increasing cloud and there could be some light rain at times mainly in the north around mid-day. Highs 12-15 C, warmest inland southeast. Winds becoming southerly 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT a more general rainfall will follow in northern counties with 5-10 mm likely overnight. Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain elsewhere. Lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY intervals of rain will continue, with a few brighter intervals, and highs 11 to 14 C. Moderate southwest winds 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY breezy to windy, southwest 50-80 km/hr by afternoon, and rain becoming rather heavy with potential for 15-30 mm. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY rather chilly with passing showers, some with hail or thunder, moderate south-westerly winds 40-70 km/hr, lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY cloudy with occasional rain, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 9 to 12 C. Moderate southwest winds continuing,

FRIDAY cloudy with showers, cool, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C. Some heavier rain possible late in the day and overnight with blustery southwest winds at times 50-70 km/hr. Possible thunderstorms included in this overnight activity.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, very cool lows 3 to 6 C, highs 7 to 10 C. Continued rather windy.

The charts continue to show colder air dominating for a few more days (Sunday 26th to early Tuesday 28th) before it becomes very unsettled again, and quite windy at times. A second surge of cool arctic air may follow after that brief unsettled spell, and on today's guidance it seems possible that April could start with unseasonable frosts.

My local weather on Saturday became very mild, with highs around 12 C. Some snow-free valleys got up as high as 18 degrees under hazy sunshine. Our snow pack is steadily slumping away, partly by melt and partly evaporation. Ice, slush and standing water on some side roads and parking lots make it tricky to get around in some places; down in the valley though it's largely snow-free but very dusty from the winter grit that will likely be getting the spring cleaning this week.

Tuesday, 21 March, 2023 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS show no signs of change, expect more rather wet and blustery conditions, especially in western counties, with limited amounts of sun, and frequent gusty winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with a brief dry interlude but rain will move in later this morning, becoming heavier by afternoon. Winds also increasing to reach southwesterly 50-80 km/hr, possibly higher gusts in exposed locations. Risk of thunderstorms with a frontal passage late afternoon. Highs 12-14 C. Expect about 20-30 mm rain.

TONIGHT will be blustery with passing showers and brief clear intervals, winds westerly 50-70 km/hr. Lows 7-9 C. (2-5 mm rain).

WEDNESDAY will continue blustery with showers or intervals of rain, and a degree or two cooler, highs 10-12 C. About 5-10 mm rain.

THURSDAY will bring a mix of cloud and brief sunny breaks, with showers at times. Lows 4-7 C and highs 11-13 C.

FRIDAY will be cool with occasional rain or showers, lows 3-6 C and highs 10-12 C. Blustery winds near south coast later in the day and some more prolonged intervals of rain.

SATURDAY partly cloudy to overcast, cool, showers may become wintry on northern hills overnight into Sunday morning. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY morning showers, some wintry, cool. Some clearing possible for afternoon and overnight hours. Lows 1-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY could see scattered frosts in east and north, but cloud will return to south and west overnight and prevent frost there. Rain and strong winds will follow in all areas. Lows -1 to +5 C, highs 10-13 C. Winds becoming south to southwest 60-90 km/hr.

The further outlook is for more unsettled conditions into early April, quite warm air masses will be making an appearance in the mix, whether they push into Ireland for any length of time during that interval remains uncertain, as the storm track looks likely to be near the south coast counties much of that week (28th of March to about 3rd of April), it will be a few days before we get a good handle on the details for that period.

My local weather stayed dry and mild although high cloud was generally thick enough to dim the sunshine, and the high temperature was a few degrees lower as a result, near 8 C. This cloud is thinning overnight and we may get a few more sunny and mild days before a more unsettled regime develops here and perhaps we see some rain despite temperatures not being much above freezing when that arrives.