Grandouet

premierstone · 07-03-2013 6:22pm

Huntley wrote: »

It is blatantly obvious from your posts. Maybe you cut the grass at Thurles or Clonmel the odd time but that isn't what I am getting at.

Are you genuinely trying to suggest that someone with you was lugging around a penetrometer? You don't need to refer to your average Cheltenham racegoer as a colleague either.

It is also strange that you state you used a penetrometer to decipher the difference in the ground, yet it is only your opinion. Surely using a globally acclaimed device to obtain soil results could be considered as factual? I'm sure you can appreciate how perplex your comments are in light of this information.

My view may be of no interest to you. However,it is of interest to others acknowledging your comments if you are supplying information to people when there is no evidence to support it. All relevant for peoples analysis aswell of course.

I reply and try not to be an insulting pri*k, please take note

A penetrometer gives an accurate reading of a particular soil sample, the reason I stated it was my opinion is I can only compare two readings from two different sections of the course made 12 months apart surely even you can see the possible inconsistencies that may occur.

dk6dk6 · 07-03-2013 8:27pm

It's a pity about Grandouets preparations, must be serious doubts now whether we'll see the best of the horse at the festival. I really fancied this horse but it's hard to go in to deep with such a bad preparation and the vibes from the yard don't sound to good.

ste2010 · 07-03-2013 10:42pm

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

With Grandouet's interrupted preparation I'll forgive him whatever happens in the champion

I'd love to see him come over to Punchestown to take on HF. Seeing as he came over as a juvenile hurdler & there's no reason I can see him being asked to go 2.5m at Aintree it may well happen

Aintree or punchestown..
Tuesday is not his finale. We will know tomorrow whether this guy will be planning to run or not. I have no doubt in my mind they will only run him if he's right given the punchestown and aintree option. They won't want to destroy the horse.
If he works well tomorrow..I'm in...I'm confident He will beat the rest of the field if he's right on Tuesday even if its soft

RichieLawlor · 08-03-2013 12:27am

ste2010 wrote: »

I'm confident He will beat the rest of the field if he's right on Tuesday even if its soft

The mind boggles

ste2010 · 08-03-2013 12:51am

RichieLawlor wrote: »

The mind boggles

Why would the mind boggle if he won on soft if he was right on the day?

mdwexford · 08-03-2013 2:06am

People have a very high opinion of Grandouet considering his crowning achievement to date is winning a Bula from Overturn.

If he can win a Champion Hurdle after being seen once in the last fifteen months I will hold my hands up and say hes a machine but I just cant see it.

ste2010 · 08-03-2013 8:27am

mdwexford wrote: »

People have a very high opinion of Grandouet considering his crowning achievement to date is winning a Bula from Overturn.

If he can win a Champion Hurdle after being seen once in the last fifteen months I will hold my hands up and say hes a machine but I just cant see it.

This is correct. I also think his run in the Bula this year is quite significant given the amount of time he was off the track. He's relatively unexposed having run twice out of novice/juvenile company, the first thrashing overturn in the BULA. The same season overturn won the fighting fifth and in the form of his life. The second his tender run this season by no means given a hard time on Hvy ground which doesn't suit after a break of a year beating Rock on ruby and getting beaten by zarkandar (on ground which suits him) giving away weight and a gentle enough ride.
His preparation has been appalling but if he is right on Tuesday, it is not an unlikely situation to think he could 1. Improve for his second race this season on more suitable ground (soft) 2. To turn the form around with Zarkandar On level weights 3. To progress again with his 3rd run outside of juvenile/novice company. 4. That RoR should not reverse the form from this seasons BULA
If he is right on Tuesday the above 4 point are not the most unlikely.

RichieLawlor · 08-03-2013 10:06am

ste2010 wrote: »

Why would the mind boggle if he won on soft if he was right on the day?

The mind boggles that you are 'confident' he will win if he is right. Hopeful would be a better word.

And if the rumours are true and Simonsig worked all over this 'speed horse' is be very worried, as good as Simonsig is.

Suarez20 · 08-03-2013 10:30am

true, and what's to say he couldn't bounce following his run in the bula, very fragile horse

RichieLawlor · 08-03-2013 10:33am

Suarez20 wrote: »

true, and what's to say he couldn't bounce following his run in the bula, very fragile horse

He's the same price now as he was after winning the Bula, in a stronger race, after all his problems and setbacks

ste2010 · 08-03-2013 10:55am

RichieLawlor wrote: »

The mind boggles that you are 'confident' he will win if he is right. Hopeful would be a better word.

And if the rumours are true and Simonsig worked all over this 'speed horse' is be very worried, as good as Simonsig is.

I am confident if he is right. If he is partially right I'm not confident.
He wasn't right against simonsig. He needed the work (that's what worries me)
If today's work is impressive and he is brought on a bit it's a different story.
My point is if he is "right" ie he is back in shape for Tuesday I am confident.
But if we find NH's doubts exist after today's prep I won't go near him. I would trust the owners and trainer will make the right decision for him, as I mentioned already the season isn't over next week.

ste2010 · 08-03-2013 10:56am

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He's the same price now as he was after winning the Bula, in a stronger race, after all his problems and setbacks

This is a good point-his price is not respective of his situation

ste2010 · 08-03-2013 10:59am

Suarez20 wrote: »

true, and what's to say he couldn't bounce following his run in the bula, very fragile horse

It's 3 months since the buLa, "bounce" belongs on the same shelf as Star Trek next generation

Theborderfox81 · 08-03-2013 11:35am

Grandouet worked very very well this morning. They think he'll win it. Lump on time.

Arctic89 · 08-03-2013 11:40am

Theborderfox81 wrote: »

Grandouet worked very very well this morning. They think he'll win it. Lump on time.

This is exactly what I wanted to hear.

Rhinestone Cowboy · 08-03-2013 11:55am

Grandouet will hardly love the ground. One Cheltenham Preview reported that Mick Fitz was going to lay off his bet on him...

Theborderfox81 · 08-03-2013 12:03pm

Good to soft there!! Will be perfect.

Arctic89 · 08-03-2013 12:08pm

If the expected rain falls and it's soft ground on Tuesday are they worried borderfox? Considering holding fire til Tuesday morning.

Slattsy · 08-03-2013 12:11pm

Cheers for the update TheBorderFox

Surely better off waiting until Tuesday at this point though. Cant see much change in the markets between now and Tuesday.

Theborderfox81 · 08-03-2013 12:20pm

I just backed it because the media reports will probably be out later and he could shorten. They never mentioned anything about the ground but he seemed to handle it all right at Cheltenham last Nov in the International, just came up against a fitter horse on the day in Zarkandar. He's French bred too so shouldn't be much panic. It was actually heavy in november and he couldn't pick up in it. Monday and todays workout will have him spot on. They are bullish.

sting60 · 08-03-2013 12:51pm

Cheltenham at this stage have no idea what the ground will be like on Tuesday.If it rides soft or worse then the stamina of Zarkander will be a hugh factor.I wont be having a bet but I wish Huntley the very best as he has stuck by his opinion for a long time.

premierstone · 08-03-2013 1:24pm

sting60 wrote: »

Cheltenham at this stage have no idea what the ground will be like on Tuesday.If it rides soft or worse then the stamina of Zarkander will be a hugh factor.I wont be having a bet but I wish Huntley the very best as he has stuck by his opinion for a long time.

He has but then he ridiculed another poster for nominating Solwhit as a good bet for the world hurdle because the horse is 'a physical wreck' but yet he is waxing lyrical about a horse than has run once in over 15 months :rolleyes:

Huntley · 08-03-2013 2:31pm

premierstone wrote: »

He has but then he ridiculed another poster for nominating Solwhit as a good bet for the world hurdle because the horse is 'a physical wreck' but yet he is waxing lyrical about a horse than has run once in over 15 months :rolleyes:

I didn't ridicule anybody, I simply stated the obvious. Somebody questioned my mental health for doing so yet supplied no information to the contrary.

There is a massive difference to a horse being off the track due to prolonged problems and one who has had a relatively sound season despite having only run once.

The line of one race in 16 months is being spouted regularly here and is incredibly deceiving/stupid when taking account of the bigger picture. Grandouet will have run once in 16 months primarily due to timing and connections decision to leave him off the track. He has run twice in 15 months but that would also only be relevant if he was kept off the track due to injury. That hasn't been the case.

This season is a totally separate entity to last in regards Grandouet. He has run once this season, missed his prep due to a minuscule problem and the ground but has been physically sound otherwise. I can see why it is worrying to people that believe a prep run is crucial, but the fact he will have run once in 16 months shouldn't be a concern. Likewise, if he is beaten in the Champion Hurdle it won't be because he will have run once in 16 months, the horse has been physically sound for the majority of that time frame.

Grandouet is a fragile horse but is in no way comparible to Solwhit, a physical wreck who has been plagued by injuries the majority of time he has been off the track. Why don't you elaborate on the similarities you are implying between the horses instead of masquerading under a smiley?

UrbanSea · 08-03-2013 2:37pm

So you think having one run in all of that time is of absolutely no concern?

RichieLawlor · 08-03-2013 2:40pm

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

So you think having one run in all of that time is of absolutely no concern?

Basically telling himself what he wants to hear. Huntley do you think Grandouets price is correct

Huntley · 08-03-2013 2:43pm

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

So you think having one run in all of that time is of absolutely no concern?

As I stated, the concern for me/or others would be that he is lacking fitness due to a prep run. He hasn't been kept off the track due to injury, if he was then undoubtedly it would be a concern. The horse was sound for the majority of that time-frame, what is it that should be worrying?

Categorising his absence under one literal time frame is deceiving when accounting for the bigger picture.

Colonel Sanders · 08-03-2013 2:46pm

Stats are stats and there to be broken etc

I always look at stats/trends and think is there a logical reason behind them. I can't think of a reason why favourites have a poor record in certain races but I can fully understand why no 5yo has won the world hurdle or why no horse who wasn't proven over 3m+ has won the Grand National in 40+ years

One stat I don't have a reason for is the number of horses who flop in championship Grade 1's who have not had a prep run since the new year. Must look the actual figures up but it's quite startling for some races. While I have no reason for it it's a trend I respect due to the numbers involved

Is it a case that no prep => possibility of a set back. Or the lack of a prep results in a horse being too fresh come the festival. I must admit I don't know.

UrbanSea · 08-03-2013 2:47pm

I'd be worried that these little excuses keep propping up each time he's due to run. Could be nothing, probably is, but I'd be concerned myself, but that's just me

premierstone · 08-03-2013 2:53pm

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Basically telling himself what he wants to hear. Huntley do you think Grandouets price is correct

Ah Richie do you not know by now the price is completely irrelevant its all about picking winners, value is for mugs

Huntley · 08-03-2013 3:09pm

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

I'd be worried that these little excuses keep propping up each time he's due to run. Could be nothing, probably is, but I'd be concerned myself, but that's just me

You are concerned that he is being kept off the track due to his physical state then, which if was the case would concern me aswell.

I don't believe, nor have connections said, that has been the case. People are also quick to discredit that this season has resulted in different approaches been taken by trainers. Nicholls was content to give a prep run to the majority of his stable stars while Henderson chose not to.

I'm not concerned about the horses well being, his lack of fitness may have been a concern but I have full faith that he will be in as good a condition as this season has allowed if he lines up.

Had the horse run in Aintree and Punchestown last year and missed his prep this year would people not be concerned because he would have raced 3 times in 16 months? No, the same reservations would be there because this season is a separate entity as such.

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Basically telling himself what he wants to hear.

I'm not telling myself anything I want to hear, I don't need convincing to back a horse. I have frequently stated any reservations I have about the animal.

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Huntley do you think Grandouets price is correct

The 'correctness' of his price is subjective. If I believe on Tuesday that he is the most likely winner on the conditions I wouldn't have an issue backing him at 6/1.

premierstone wrote: »

the price is completely irrelevant its all about picking winners

If you are implying I said that you are incorrect, unsurprisingly once again. You keep up that masquerade.

Grandouet

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