Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

NIALL D · 05-01-2011 10:42pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Snow to start with probably turning to sleet or rain.

Same likelihood as above, with snow lasting longer probably.

but if you were 100 - 200 metres above sea level would you have a better chance of snow altogether yeah ????

an staying as snow rather than turning to rain ...?

mumo3 · 05-01-2011 10:43pm

rain i can deal with well used to that.. its slippen around the zoo like bambi on ice i dont fancy

p.s dublin zoo are doing half price tickets for adults and kids until the 9th jan;)

pistolpetes11 · 05-01-2011 10:44pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like would take some way to get there after we get into the zonal pattern, the Polar Vortex sets up shop in the Arctic and we are back to your typical mild winter pattern of the middle 2000's, but who knows.

MT was saying to expect a mild couple of days 5-7 then a major swing back to the cold .

Do u think the zonal activity could stop this happening ?

nacho libre · 05-01-2011 10:46pm

John.Icy wrote: »

I's not true Zonal though WC, it's more of a mobile pattern, so it'll be easier to break away from it. Once the initial low clears off after around five days, there dosen't look like being several other lows in the wings, so I see heights rising towards greenland, or Heights pushing into Scandinavia.

yes. it's not as if there'll be a succession of lows pushing up all the way to Scandanavia. If it must be mild for five - six days so be it, let min enjoy his few days of milder weather before we get transported to Lapland once again:p

Min · 05-01-2011 10:50pm

nacho libre wrote: »

yes. it's not as if there'll be a succession of lows pushing up all the way to Scandanavia. If it must be mild for five - six day so be it, let min enjoy his few days of milder weather before we get transported to Lapland once again:p

Suits me

ffarrell7 · 05-01-2011 10:51pm

nacho libre wrote: »

yes. it's not as if there'll be a succession of lows pushing up all the way to Scandanavia. If it must be mild for five - six day so be it, let min enjoy his few days of milder weather before we get transported to Lapland once again:p

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST.

:D:D

pistolpetes11 · 05-01-2011 10:53pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST. :D:D

You love sticking into them folks down south, I'm sure there day will come !

Speak Now · 05-01-2011 10:56pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST. :D:D

Brilliant yer back.

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2011 10:59pm

Just to clear up what I was thinking about the mild spell next week, would expect above normal temperatures for 5-7 days (not at days 5-7). The current 18z GFS looks plausible on the whole with a couple of strong lows whipping past to the north around Tuesday night and Friday-Saturday (14th-15th) then likely a return to blocking through the period 17th-20th which could bring some snow potential back as these are high index storminess dates. I don't wish to over-refine the details as blocking can set up difficult challenges for any model 10-15 days out, but the larger scale picture would likely be a gradual change from very mild to very cold through late January and some prolonged periods of blocking in February.

It's interesting to note that in January 1947 a similar warming event happened on 16th January then the very cold period began around 21st January. The winter to that point had been rather cold although not as cold as our past December.

As to the Friday storm potential, I have not seen anything on 12z or 18z runs that looks substantially different, the most likely outcome there is a mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain much as everyone on this thread has been discussing and the exact details would probably be difficult to forecast until Thursday night, but the main question (for me at least) for the morning forecast will be snow potential in the inland southeast, and a bit further north into the mid-west region. This is the kind of storm that can keep changing phase and just drop a big sloppy mess of wet snow, sleet and other stuff nobody likes. The uppers are very marginal but that brings in heavier moisture content, so ... with any change in the thermal profile there could be an upgrade to snowfall amounts, but at the same time, this could just turn into a sleet and rain storm for all but the highest inhabited elevations (it will almost definitely drop 20-30 cms on summits).

Cocoon · 05-01-2011 11:04pm

Thats grand, no need to put the snow tyres back on so...

thomasj · 05-01-2011 11:05pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST. :D:D

I think it's dawning on me why people want regional threads

Min · 05-01-2011 11:05pm

This is for M.T. Cranium - http://english.aljazeera.net/weather/2011/01/201113134728374445.html about the la nina and snow.

Between now and the end of February we can expect heavy rain and snow for the west coast of Canada and the US, a harsh winter in Japan, heavy rain in northern Brazil, and wet weather in the southeastern parts of Africa, including Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa and Tanzania.

Just something relevant for you as you give a lot relevant to us. How true about the la nina I don't know...

Min · 05-01-2011 11:06pm

thomasj wrote: »

I think it's dawning on me why people want regional threads

I'm just glad he isn't a forecaster

:P:pac:

NIALL D · 05-01-2011 11:15pm

im not to bothered jus as long as dublin doesnt get snow , sick of listening to them :P hopefully the airport wont be affected :rolleyes:

actually it would be super if jus all the south , southeast , and southwest areas got snow jus for once , with decent amounts..

fizzycyst · 05-01-2011 11:21pm

NIALL D wrote: »

im not to bothered jus as long as dublin doesnt get snow , sick of listening to them :P hopefully the airport wont be affected :rolleyes:

actually it would be super if jus all the south , southeast , and southwest areas got snow jus for once , with decent amounts..

that would be really nice but, tbh at this stage I'd be happy if we didn't get cold rain and it stayed dry

NIALL D · 05-01-2011 11:22pm

fizzycyst wrote: »

that would be really nice but, tbh at this stage I'd be happy if we didn't get cold rain and it stayed dry

yes , thats true too..

Aquals · 05-01-2011 11:22pm

NIALL D wrote: »

im not to bothered jus as long as dublin doesnt get snow , sick of listening to them :P hopefully the airport wont be affected :rolleyes:

actually it would be super if jus all the south , southeast , and southwest areas got snow jus for once , with decent amounts..

Why are some people sick of hearing Dublin people talk about snow?

You never hear Dublin people saying that they're sick of people outside Dublin talking about snow!

irish1967 · 05-01-2011 11:23pm

Everyone seems in agreement that we here in Donegal are out of reach of this event. Being at the south end of the county is there any marginality in this for us?

As for the wintery showers we are being forecast yesterday, tonight and through the weekend is there any chance these could be more sustained than forecast.

BEASTERLY · 05-01-2011 11:30pm

Ina different thread there is a discussion re snow above 0c, and when talking about DP's ect i came up with a good idea for making our snow less marginal. Here it is, in marginal snow events if we all go down to the plant hire store and rent a dehumidifier and turn them all on out in our back garden we might be able o 'dry' out the air and lower the Dewpoints!:D:D Whose with me?

thetonynator · 05-01-2011 11:36pm

NIALL D wrote: »

im not to bothered jus as long as dublin doesnt get snow , sick of listening to them :P hopefully the airport wont be affected :rolleyes:

actually it would be super if jus all the south , southeast , and southwest areas got snow jus for once , with decent amounts..

Much more likely that we get rain and places further north get the snow.

Aquals wrote: »

Why are some people sick of hearing Dublin people talk about snow?

You never hear Dublin people saying that they're sick of people outside Dublin talking about snow!

Well when dublin gets snowbound it affects the thousands who travel to dublin every day, all rail services, the main airport closes, the media dont shut up about it and everyone panics. When the rest of the country has snow, nobody really cares and we get to enjoy it in peace.

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ina different thread there is a discussion re snow above 0c, and when talking about DP's ect i came up with a good idea for making our snow less marginal. Here it is, in marginal snow events if we all go down to the plant hire store and rent a dehumidifier and turn them all on out in our back garden we might be able o 'dry' out the air and lower the Dewpoints!:D:D Whose with me?

Great idea except the bit where we melt the national grid . .:P

WolfeIRE · 05-01-2011 11:38pm

Aquals wrote: »

You never hear Dublin people saying that they're sick of people outside Dublin talking about snow!

you tend to hoard all the snow

we dont get any. Will swap you a bag of turf for a bag of snow?

Rebelbrowser · 05-01-2011 11:40pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

It seems that the East of the country is on track for getting the worst of this snow event as this will be the coldest part of the country. Rain and sleet in South and SOUTH EAST and snow for the EAST. :D:D

I'd say there will be really warm rain in Cork (but not good warm) but there will be 10 feet of snow in Dublin coz its the bestest place in the world galaxy universe ever.

BEASTERLY · 05-01-2011 11:41pm

ffarrell7 wrote: »

snow for the EAST. :D:D

LOL, I'll quote this again on friday evening.

Supercell · 05-01-2011 11:42pm

This is almost certainly going to be a rain and maybe sleet event at times by the east coast around Dublin , including the CC, thank feck, had enough of it this winter, and also i have a flight out on the 26th so any prolonged snow can sod off.

mumo3 · 05-01-2011 11:43pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I'd say there will be really warm rain in Cork (but not good warm) but there will be 10 feet of snow in Dublin coz its the bestest place in the world galaxy universe ever.

cork can have dublins yellow snow :eek:

BEASTERLY · 05-01-2011 11:45pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Great idea except the bit where we melt the national grid . .:P

I think the general public would forgive that if it brought more of their beloved snow.:pac:

cherryghost · 05-01-2011 11:48pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS 18z projects a substantial snow event for areas in Ireland away from Southern and Eastern fringes. Midland regions could recieve over 24 hours of falling snow, moderate to heavy at times, 20-30cm of snow could not be ruled out in parts. Even eastern regions could see a brief period of snow to begin early Friday morning before turning to sleet and rain and again turning to snow as it clears early Saturdya morning.

Stay in touch to forecasts.

Unfortunately the onshore breeze in the east will put pay to any substantial chance of lying snow.

I called this event aaaaages ago

(this morning :P)

Min · 05-01-2011 11:54pm

Aquals wrote: »

Why are some people sick of hearing Dublin people talk about snow?

You never hear Dublin people saying that they're sick of people outside Dublin talking about snow!

Do you remember how the media went crazy last winter when Cavan got drifts over 7 feet high, buildings collapsed, animals died, far worse snow than what Dublin got recently.

The media didn't make a fuss over it as Dublin wasn't affected, it is this kind of ignoring the rest of the country receives that makes people say "yeah, yeah" when Dublin gets snow.
No offense intended, it is the fault of the Dublin based media, it doesn't do Dublin any favours.

Min · 05-01-2011 11:55pm

Jean is on in that dress...

Ahorseofaman · 05-01-2011 11:57pm

Min wrote: »

Jean is on in that dress...

I want to have her babies:D

Ahorseofaman · 06-01-2011 12:06am

going offline now

Harps · 06-01-2011 12:14am

BBC has this system making it almost as far as the north coast on their latest forecast. I think the general consensus is that nobody really has a clue what to expect yet

NIALL D · 06-01-2011 12:17am

Harps wrote: »

BBC has this system making it almost as far as the north coast on their latest forecast. I think the general consensus is that nobody really has a clue what to expect yet

yep , i agree , its just a waiting game now...

thetonynator · 06-01-2011 1:22am

Ahorseofaman wrote: »

I want to have her babies:D

not sure if thats possible . . .:P

_whiskers · 06-01-2011 2:05am

Could someone please explain to me in non weather terms what the chances are of Dublin CC seeing significant snowfall over the next week or two? (I can't look through all the pages as I'm on my phone)

Supercell · 06-01-2011 2:19am

_whiskers wrote: »

Could someone please explain to me in non weather terms what the chances are of Dublin CC seeing significant snowfall over the next week or two? (I can't look through all the pages as I'm on my phone)

Significant snowfall - about 1% in my opinion. I don't expect any lying snow like November and December in the CC for the foreseeable.

delw · 06-01-2011 2:20am

_whiskers wrote: »

Could someone please explain to me in non weather terms what the chances are of Dublin CC seeing significant snowfall over the next week or two? (I can't look through all the pages as I'm on my phone)

well for the next few days it seems that any snow will be inland with rain/sleet on coastal areas but those in the know are saying subject to change or in other words a nowcast situation(or if you like snow fingers crossed

)

edit:check supercells post above

Pangea · 06-01-2011 2:39am

Supercell wrote: »

Significant snowfall - about 1% in my opinion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s&feature=related

_whiskers · 06-01-2011 2:43am

Thanks guys!

Brianmeath · 06-01-2011 7:21am

Will this snow stay on the ground for long?

or will it just snow then thaw?

ffarrell7 · 06-01-2011 7:33am

NIALL D wrote: »

im not to bothered jus as long as dublin doesnt get snow , sick of listening to them :P hopefully the airport wont be affected :rolleyes:

actually it would be super if jus all the south , southeast , and southwest areas got snow jus for once , with decent amounts..

Wet weather in the South, South east and south west but snow further north and East:D:D:D why does Dublin always seem to get the brunt of it???

Big Daddy Cool · 06-01-2011 7:37am

now i take the weather on TV3 with a huge pinch of salt but this morning they said nothing much about snow tomorrow, just showery outbreaks at times and not a whole lot really.

Vudgie · 06-01-2011 8:06am

I think we now have all eventualities covered in this thread!!! The overriding message appears to be that this will be a marginal event for many and could actually be enjoyable given that very few will see the conditions that made December quite difficult.

My car was reading 4.5 degrees this morning in Dublin 2, perhaps we will see a dramatic drop in temperatures by tomorrow morning but the car was not even iced this morning in D16.

MET Eireann have stuck to their guns this week (apart from removing their predicition of 5 - 10cm of snow) and the Eagle appeared pretty confident on Newstalk this morning.

Deep Easterly · 06-01-2011 8:25am

HIRLAM 24th prep forecast from 0300hrs tomorrow morning:

Any snow is most likely on the northern edge of the main rain band although intensity induced snow further south cannot be ruled out either.

Image source: yr.no

irish1967 · 06-01-2011 8:30am

So near but yet so far

snaps · 06-01-2011 8:37am

Brianmeath wrote: »

Will this snow stay on the ground for long?

or will it just snow then thaw?

What snow where? This snow event is going to be extremely marginal anywhere. The coasts will not see snow, especially the south east and east coast as the easterly flow coming in will be only from the UK, which is mild. Its not an easterly all the way from scandinavia.

Only places that will see snow, will be inland and high ground.

Yesterday here was supposed to be cold, it got into double figures. As far as i am concerend its not a cold spell at all, just a near normal January day/period.

Deep Easterly · 06-01-2011 8:43am

snaps wrote: »

Yesterday here was supposed to be cold, it got into double figures. As far as i am concerend its not a cold spell at all, just a near normal January day/period.

You sure about that Snaps? I only live up the road from you and only got 6.6c max yesterday. Although with you right beside the lakes maybe this had an bearing on your local temps?

Claremorris max temp yesterday 7.1c:

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

No double figures at any synoptic station yesterday.

06-01-2011 9:06am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You sure about that Snaps? I only live up the road from you and only got 6.6c max yesterday. Although with you right beside the lakes maybe this had an bearing on your local temps?

Claremorris max temp yesterday 7.1c:

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

No double figures at any synoptic station yesterday.

A few of the private stations got to 9 and 10c yesterday.
I don't think you could call yesterday cold,cool yes,not cold.
Thats why this rain to snow to rain to snow event is very marginal.
For a start it's entirely possible that high cloud ahead of it will prevent surface air temps falling.
I'd agree its a huge ask for snow relying only on upper air of -6 or -8 at 5000ft.I suspect it will happen well inland and on high ground above say 450ft- we'll see.
Anything more looks like a bonus

snaps · 06-01-2011 9:12am

Deep Easterly wrote: »

You sure about that Snaps? I only live up the road from you and only got 6.6c max yesterday. Although with you right beside the lakes maybe this had an bearing on your local temps?

Claremorris max temp yesterday 7.1c:

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

No double figures at any synoptic station yesterday.

yesterday afternoon my car showed 10.5c, my back garden station recorded a high of 9.8c. Saying that its chilly this morning -2c currently.

irish1967 · 06-01-2011 9:14am

Met.ie have been forecasting "wintry showers" on N NW coasts for the last few days and they have actually turned out to be "showers in the winter". Not a sniff of snow except on the mountains. I have a feeling that tomorrows snow event will follow the same path. I honestly think that in a 'normal winter' Met.ie would have called this differently to such an extent that it hardly merits mentioning.
Phrases that we will see on this thread tomorrow will probably include.
"Heavy rain here after 5 minutes of sleet"
"Woohoo Heavy Snow.. no wait... rain now"

Wish I was wrong but I think we have a non event on our hands.

(No sources.. just a feeling)

Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

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