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Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,025 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    GFS is forecasting dewpoints to be above zero over much of the country by lunchtime friday, i dont know where met eireann are seeing the potential for prolonged snow ''across much of the country'', or anybody else for that matter.

    The most northern reach of the front may well see the precip stay as snow but there it very likely to be light a short lived, anywhere where the precip is heavy or prolonged(where the mild air all ready has swaded in at that stage) will have mixed precip at best, most likely plain rain.(you might be lucky to see splodges of slightly sleety rain on your windscreen:D)

    Your right, but look at the precip for the GFS run,(Not netweather), it all stops when the milder air arrives, and when the precip returns, its all below zero again..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    John.Icy wrote: »
    Your right, but look at the precip for the GFS run,(Not netweather), it all stops when the milder air arrives, and when the precip returns, its all below zero again..

    assuming it verifies like that, it may have all changed by tonight or tomorrow.
    This is why i'm surprised by Met Eireann's morning update, given the uncertainity it's quite likely the next ecm run will show something completely different and the words signifcant and snow will likely be absent from their next update.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,110 ✭✭✭123balltv


    I cant get excited about this
    its not the same as before or as a big of a snow event


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS doesn't look good for snow Friday evening for the southern half of the country anyway

    gfs-1-78.png?12


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,025 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

    Also, we wont know till Thursday what's going to happen. As I said, the last two low's similar to this one in the previous cold spell's, failed to make it here, and stayed well south of us.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    123balltv wrote: »
    I cant get excited about this
    its not the same as before or as a big of a snow event

    that's the problem with raised expectations. there were winters not too long ago where we'd be glad to see 5cms of snow. you may get your wish via an easterly after mid-month, but it could just as easily be standard wintry spells from now on for us


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    123balltv wrote: »
    I cant get excited about this
    its not the same as before or as a big of a snow event

    Ya gotta take what you can get !

    Anyway at the moment on the GFS run DP's dont look great

    11010718_0412.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    John.Icy wrote: »
    The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

    s.

    is it? it did very well in the last two cold spells when the ecm was wavering and the gfs was doing it's usual routine of showing the atlantic back in control after a couple of days. it maybe that the ukmo may fall into line with the other models. we'll see.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,960 ✭✭✭DarkJager


    Any news of some really heavy rain and strong winds? I really can't wait to see them come back. Snow can pack its bags and **** off for another 12 months as far as I'm concerned.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    John.Icy wrote: »
    The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

    Also, we wont know till Thursday what's going to happen. As I said, the last two low's similar to this one in the previous cold spell's, failed to make it here, and stayed well south of us.

    Just to echo this about the 12z UKMO. To my (very untrained!) eye it looks promising in terms of the 850 temps.

    In relation to other such lows from the South, as said earlier the Jan one did deliver for Munster, even on the coast and in the cities. That was written off as way too marginal also right up to a few hours beforehand.

    Fingers and toes still crossed here (and yes, I know, Cork city will need a miracle this time...)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    DarkJager wrote: »
    Any news of some really heavy rain and strong winds? I really can't wait to see them come back. Snow can pack its bags and **** off for another 12 months as far as I'm concerned.

    We've had heavy rain and strong wind last night and today, its wonderful :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Ya gotta take what you can get !

    Anyway at the moment on the GFS run DP's dont look great

    11010718_0412.gif

    not for the southern half of country, but they look to be just about ok for snow to fall in most of ulster and perhaps parts of connacht.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    maybe MT can shed some thoughts id still believe here than MET eirean


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,960 ✭✭✭DarkJager


    Harps wrote: »
    We've had heavy rain and strong wind last night and today, its wonderful :rolleyes:

    It really is. At least you can drive in that weather.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,267 ✭✭✭opr


    John.Icy wrote: »
    The OP used UKMO, which is more favourable for snow, but that model is 3rd in line atm.

    I am pretty sure I seen a link recently that in analysis of how the models performed in predicting the outcome to the actual outcome over the last month the UKMO performed the best.

    Opr


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 107 ✭✭typhooner


    iceland is going to be exceptionally cold at the end of this week, shame we don't have a screaming northerly but even so the really cold air does reach us albeit heavily modifed by the Atlantic, UKMO seems to be showing this at short range...

    http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW48-21.GIF?04-17


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 107 ✭✭typhooner


    potential for upgrades is very promising going by todays models\charts, ECM coming out in an hour or so should be revealing


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    typhooner wrote: »
    potential for upgrades is very promising going by todays models\charts, ECM coming out in an hour or so should be revealing


    Very much indeed... all eyes on 6one weather , :) , even tough they seem to be a bit "adventourous" latley.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Just to echo this about the 12z UKMO. To my (very untrained!) eye it looks promising in terms of the 850 temps.

    Yes at 72 hours the upper temps look a bit better on the UKMO but 72 hours is as far out as the 850 temp charts go on the UKMO for us and at that stage the precip is still off the south coast anyway :

    UW72-594.GIF?04-17


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,025 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    is it? it did very well in the last two cold spells when the ecm was wavering and the gfs was doing it's usual routine of showing the atlantic back in control after a couple of days. it maybe that the ukmo may fall into line with the other models. we'll see.

    It is indeed, a close 3rd that is, but it only can only take runs so far so far, like most of the GFS and ECM arn't used as they go out much further than the UKMO, so out to +144, its GFS and ECM leading the pack.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,025 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    opr wrote: »
    I am pretty sure I seen a link recently that in analysis of how the models performed in predicting the outcome to the actual outcome over the last month the UKMO performed the best.

    Opr

    Each model has various up's and downs, here's the chart, GFS and ECM, are above UKMO atm, very close though, Ukmo is after coming out of a very bad performing spell, nearly dropping to NOGAPS level's :P

    http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz6.html

    Here's the link.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    HIRLAM PRECIP
    prec_nordeuro-49.gif

    HIRLAM TEMPS
    temp_nordeuro-49.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    UKMO 850 temps are nice all right, but the others aren't really backing it up . .:(


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It's too early to speculate on exact locations really. We have 3 different possibilities

    1. The whole lot misses us to the South and East keeping us cold but dry for a time
    2. The warmer air is too progressive in moving up over the country meaning snow only for a short time (a few hours) then rain
    3. Significant snow especially in the North and West through Friday turning sleety in the Southeast (although here it may just turn to rain under any scenario)


    Take your pick.....


    At the moment I slightly favour the snow then rain scenario. But it's all up in the air really. Should be interesting observing how this developes in the next 48hrs.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    darkman2 wrote: »
    It's too early to speculate on exact locations really. We have 3 different possibilities

    1. The whole lot misses us to the South and East
    2. The warmer air is too progressive in moving up over the country meaning snow only for a short time (a few hours) then rain
    3. Significant snow especially in the North and West through Friday turning sleety in the Southeast (although here it may just turn to rain under any scenario)


    Take your pick.....

    would go with third based on current data. Coastal locations in W and N would not see snow though and I think the heaviest falls would be confined to high ground.


  • Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    I smell an omelette - eggs frying on MET Eir red faces...

    followed by surprise snow later in month - the Ninja type of stuff we had in December.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭sillybird


    darkman2 wrote: »
    It's too early to speculate on exact locations really. We have 3 different possibilities

    1. The whole lot misses us to the South and East keeping us cold but dry for a time
    2. The warmer air is too progressive in moving up over the country meaning snow only for a short time (a few hours) then rain
    3. Significant snow especially in the North and West through Friday turning sleety in the Southeast (although here it may just turn to rain under any scenario)


    Take your pick.....

    I'll take no. 3 please :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭jo06555


    So as a waterford man i assume any snow that met eireann has predicted will fall on most of irl but no where near waterford again :D , im hoping we get a bit still...........


  • Registered Users Posts: 191 ✭✭carlmwan


    I find it funny when everyone here is saying were gonna be getting snow ME stay quite but when most people are saying we prob wont they saying were gonna get hit hard??:confused: weird


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The 12pm ECM run is pretty solid for snow to continue in the Northern half of the country but for snow to either die out or turn to rain elsewhere through Friday. A curved line from Meath to Galway North roughly. A bit of tweaking here and there and it can change very quickly.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Not


    carlmwan wrote: »
    I find it funny when everyone here is saying were gonna be getting snow ME stay quite but when most people are saying we prob wont they saying were gonna get hit hard??:confused: weird

    I've noticed that pattern too.

    When ME calls a significant snow event a few days in advance, it never happens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM looks better than the GFS at 120 hours to me

    ECM1-120.GIF?04-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 177 ✭✭Tucking Fypo


    Lashing rain the last few hours in the North West.:(


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,471 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    jo06555 wrote: »
    So as a waterford man i assume any snow that met eireann has predicted will fall on most of irl but no where near waterford again :D , im hoping we get a bit still...........

    Hope we get some too but its extremely unlikely that we will get snow from these types of scenarios. Thats why i haven't bought my ticket for this roller coaster ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,432 ✭✭✭df1985


    I loved snow as much as everyone the last time but that all changed after burst pipes in my house.....stay mild please!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,041 ✭✭✭Cosmo Kramer


    Jean!

    Where have you been all Christmas!:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Jean!

    Where have you been all Christmas!:)

    She must still thinks its Halloween!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,025 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Anyway, ECM not all that bad I suppose, but this will be most surely a nowcast situation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    John.Icy wrote: »
    You can't call it Ninja snow, if there's an Easterly or North-Easterly, anyone who has an intrest in weather knows that means convection over the Irish sea unless theirs something disturbing it.

    So Met Eireann didn't go for huge amount's, but they said snow showers all week till Thursday, that's what came, the can't give out large depths, due to matters arising if things/events get cancelled and in the end, nothing happens.

    Come on, they can't tell how much convection there will be, or how much moisture showers will hold.

    It wasn't ninja snow, if you read M.T guidance/Forecast, or watched any forecast, snow was predicited, people should take the initiative, and realise the streamer potential, considering, the countless times streamer's have formed off winds with an East tilt.

    :D

    Chill out mate you'll give yourself an ulcer ! :p

    (Note to self - research use of words before posting in weather forum - incorrect use of "Ninja Snow" terminology will be corrected by Newbies who are well meaning but sometimes a bit pedantic)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    Chill out mate you'll give yourself an ulcer ! :p

    (Note to self - research use of words before posting in weather forum - incorrect use of "Ninja Snow" terminology will be chastised by Newbies with an overinflated sense of self importance)

    ha , you hit the nail on the head there ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,025 ✭✭✭John.Icy



    Funny.

    Also, suprised Met put out the warning, considering Jean couldn't spare five seconds to actually talk about it :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    John.Icy wrote: »
    Funny.

    Also, suprised Met put out the warning, considering Jean couldn't spare five seconds to actually talk about it :)
    MET have changed their forecast now, anyone that follows weather will know forecasts change as we get closer to the event especially in a scenario where small movements make such a difference.

    MET Eireann can't win here IMO either they forecast all rain and people complain or they forecast a risk of snow and complain. It's not an exact science and peoples opinion will differ including the forecasters in MET Eireann.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Pretty good forecast from Jean for us in the North west, snow mentioned many times. Starting tomorrow morning , personally I am not expecting much if anything but its still nice to hear it from the horses mouth.

    Edit:See the thread title hasnt been changed yet , no suprises there lol


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Met Eireann should have known better.
    This whole event smelt of rain to me away from high ground and in the largely populated areas of the East West and south.
    As I said earlier,my reasoning is no surface cold and a marine layer being advected in from the irish and celtic sea.
    It's not as if when the winds caused by this disturbance go east that they will be smelling of danish roses or anything..
    It's a faux easterly and worse than that a mild one.
    Southerly approaching fronts are usually hard set to bring snow with surface cold,never mind without it.
    This front looks aswell like it's going to push warmer uppers ahead of it.

    No contest.

    I'm not saying it won't snow but it's 70:30 against on lower ground anyway especially south of inland north Leinster and inland north connaught

    Like all of these threads in marginal situations the optimism on page one soon wanes when reality bites.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pangea wrote: »
    Pretty good forecast from Jean for us in the North west, snow mentioned many times. Starting tomorrow morning , personally I am not expecting much if anything but its still nice to hear it from the horses mouth.

    Edit:See the thread title hasnt been changed yet , no suprises there lol

    It should be changed to North at Risk... rain... EVERWHERE else... :(


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    I think down here it's going to be rain without doubti, maybe on higher ground it might be a snow event.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    200motels wrote: »
    I think down here it's going to be rain without doubti, maybe on higher ground it might be a snow event.

    I agree, it is very similar to the event of 30th Dec 2009, heavy rain caused a lot of flooding at low levels but was a MAJOR snow event in mountainous areas of the South and East.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    My punt for Friday night / Sat is for snow in a line from Shannon to Kilkenny northwards with lucky spots getting several cm's.
    The very South will miss out but could well see some fun on Sunday morning as will most of the West and North.
    Generally though not a patch on what we got used to last month


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,347 ✭✭✭arctictree


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    I agree, it is very similar to the event of 30th Dec 2009, heavy rain caused a lot of flooding at low levels but was a MAJOR snow event in mountainous areas of the South and East.

    Yes, remember that. This could be a major snow event in my area. But a few miles away could just be heavy rain. We do best in these marginal situations. A few weeks ago, coastal areas got a dumping while we got very little.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    arctictree wrote: »
    Yes, remember that. This could be a major snow event in my area. But a few miles away could just be heavy rain. We do best in these marginal situations. A few weeks ago, coastal areas got a dumping while we got very little.

    Try getting stuck at 800m with the storm at full force, now that was fun!!!! Actually no it was horrible, esp when your map decides to take flight!:o


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