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Winter Charts 2011/2012

1…1617192122

Comments

  • #902
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    kittyn wrote: »
    HOLY CRAP ...... Talk about being in the freezer....... Bring it on ( fingers, toes and everything else crossed for at least part of that to come off )

    You have to understand that those temperatures are upper temperatures. You'll be looking at somewhere between -4 to -6, perhaps -7 in these circumstances. If you're looking at snow you ideally want -8 uppers and lower, and -4 will only give borderline stuff (sleet etc) with the exception of higher ground.

    Still, the trends are all still there. I remember the big freeze in 2009 when the models were all over the place and only about 96 hours before some heavy falls and freezing temperatures did a pattern emerge in the runs.

    Either way, it's all looking quite positive. My personal opinion is wait until this Saturday/Sunday at the very very earliest before thinking twice about the charts.


  • #903
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Not sure if I read your post correctly Enderman, Apologies if I haven't but that chart shows 98% of Ireland under -12 to -14 uppers, Not -4.


  • #904
    NIALL D
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭NIALL D


    baraca wrote: »
    Not sure if I read your post correctly Enderman, Apologies if I haven't but that chart shows 98% of Ireland under -12 to -14 uppers, Not -4.

    thats at 850 hpa/ around 1500metres up in the air , not at ground level...


  • #905
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    NIALL D wrote: »
    thats at 850 hpa/ around 1500metres up in the air , not at ground level...

    I realise that, What I didn't realise is that Enderman was obviously talking about ground temps. :)


  • #906
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    NIALL D wrote: »
    thats at 850 hpa/ around 1500metres up in the air , not at ground level...

    Thats why he said uppers , which is referred to the 850 hpa in these here parts


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  • #907
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Il throw up one of these for the crack

    187940.png

    Good night and god bless !

    Sorry was supposed to go into FI thread


  • #908
    Duiske
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Enderman wrote: »
    Either way, it's all looking quite positive. My personal opinion is wait until this Saturday/Sunday at the very very earliest before thinking twice about the charts.

    On the face of it this run looks far more positive than anything we've had so far this winter. But the ensemble tells a different story. The temp trend is downwards, but the operational is way out on its own.

    t2mDublin.png


  • #909
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Well well, whats this !

    187955.png

    187956.png

    187957.png


  • #910
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    gens-14-0-360_dvo9.png

    borat_nice-1_medium.jpg


  • #911
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    All the models seem to be down grading any possible high.


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  • #912
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Where you looking for the high ?

    Would greenland one do you

    188019.png


  • #913
    geetar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 469 ✭✭geetar


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Where you looking for the high ?

    Would greenland one do you

    im no weather expert, but i think the ideal would be a big high over Scandinavia and for ireland/uk to have a big low. correct me if im wrong :o


  • #914
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Where you looking for the high ?

    Would greenland one do you

    It would indeed. If Scandi high and a bay of biscay low fcame with it :)

    GFS for same period
    h500slp.png


  • #915
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    geetar wrote: »
    im no weather expert, but i think the ideal would be a big high over Scandinavia and for ireland/uk to have a big low. correct me if im wrong :o
    Nothing wrong with a good Scandi, has gave epic falls of snow in the past however Greenland high gave us the last prolonged cold spell with great snowfall in many parts of the east.

    Just so you know in the future below I show the Geopotential heights and surface temps anomalies from 25th Nov 2010 to 8th Dec 2010,


    Greenland Blocking High
    188044.JPG


    Surface temps Anomalies of -6
    188046.JPG


  • #916
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    gens-7-0-240_kzc5.png

    Hot snot, we're back in business!! in FI anyway :D


  • #917
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?


  • #918
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?

    Several, I flick through them quickly so I'd be telling porkies if I gave you a number. One other showing a -12 850 temp over Ireland, quite a few flirting with -8s in/around the same time-frame but only for a brief period. Pressure charts not too ideal for wind direction and massive snowfall - just flurries and dry weather. One trend which cropped up a lot is the building of sustained cold over Eastern Europe, appearing on most charts. A common feature on this run too is the tug-of-war between Atlantic and Eastern influenced weather.... but go easy on me, I'm just new, and this is fantasy-land after all, not the Winter 2011/12 thread or cold spell prediction thread... so we're not really looking into establishing trends here are we? or are we??? :confused: ... I thought it was in the other threads we analyse trends and try to establish the when, where, and why... maybe? not?


  • #919
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?
    I reckon 4-5 of the 20, Pete. Another 5 indicate a cold zonal setup (w-nw) , 4 favour a milder zonal setup (sw) and a further 6-7 suggest a cold setup (uppers -5 to -8 ), whether the source be easterly, northeasterly or northerly.

    i.e. MT is correct when he says the situation is setup to be 50/50 in terms of it turning colder or our weather remaining under the direct influence of the jetstream


  • #920
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    How many of the other permutations are even remotely like this ?

    It's the light green line showing up here, out on it's own from Jan 20th to 24th timeframe.

    Interesting to see the mean in F1 hitting -4/-5 uppers.

    t850Dublin.png


  • #921
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Where su campu these days?:confused:


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  • #922
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Where su campu these days?:confused:

    Stepped down as moderator and taking a break (hopefully not gone for good, I need to learn more about atmospheric layers and thickness!) - suffered a bit of undeserved abuse from a few eejits and wasn't enjoying it too much. :(


  • #923
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    Where su campu these days?:confused:

    Taking a break after all the hassle received moderating the forum :(


  • #924
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Taking a break after all the hassle received moderating the forum :(

    Aw really that's a shame :( Did he say that? I don't remember him leaving!


  • #925
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Weather Forum Zero Tolerance Policy
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76282462&postcount=26

    After Post #26 the thread should have been renamed as all posts after that are praising Su (and rightfully so) for his dedication and contribution.


  • #926
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Guys can we try to stay on topic? With much respect to Su and the other weather mods, I'm sure Su would be saying the same thing though :)


  • #927
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Sorry Enderman, you're absolutely right.

    Looking into the farther reaches of FI, 21st Jan onwards, there seems to be a good pattern on the GFS of very low temps setting up home in central and eastern Europe. I'd be quite satisfied to wait for the cold to build there for a while, then hope for a sustained easterly/north-easterly to manifest. Rather than to hope for a few brief cold incursions. So here's hoping for a bitter February! I don't think January will give anything to write home about at this stage, each run seems to be pushing the cold back by a day/two. IMHO.


  • #928
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I'll just leave this here to keep the flame from going out .. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:


    188189.png


  • #929
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    I told myself I wouldn't look at 18z but I did. Jesus christ :(


  • #930
    Duiske
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Enderman wrote: »
    Jesus christ :(

    Even 'ol JC himself would be hard pushed to find any good in that run :D If that 168z comes off I'll be dragging on the t-shirt and spending a few hours in the garden.


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  • #931
    Snowmaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Haven't seen the 18z, 00z, 06z yet - and I have decided today to leave it until perhaps the 12z or 18z today. Pretty good memory of yesterday's earlier charts and it will be interesting to see the comparison just 24hours later. By the looks of the posts though it's not going to be a joyful experience.


  • #932
    jimmy.d
    Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    the ideal set upgfs+312.png


  • #933
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Only 850 hours away, concrete forecasting :pac:
    You'd be a fool not to trust this chart.

    12021712_1300.gif


  • #934
    Richierich1970
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4 ✭Richierich1970


    This site has suddenly gone very quite ! Is that because there is a pending massive weather event about to happen and everyone is afraid to talk about it . Or is it because the chance of snow has gone and everyone is depressed ?


  • #935
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Richierich1970 wrote: »
    This site has suddenly gone very quite ! Is that because there is a pending massive weather event about to happen and everyone is afraid to talk about it . Or is it because the chance of snow has gone and everyone is depressed ?

    Its the latter :mad:

    D


  • #936
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Richierich1970 wrote: »
    This site has suddenly gone very quite ! Is that because there is a pending massive weather event about to happen and everyone is afraid to talk about it . Or is it because the chance of snow has gone and everyone is depressed ?


    I think it is too hard to tell. Met Eireann and UK Met Office don't know what is going to happen this weekend we can talk about until the cows come home but even chart watching is not helping matters.

    We just have to keep watch on whats happening.


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  • #937
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,175 ✭✭✭pauldry


    whats certain to happen is that the temperatures will be too mild for snow this weekend. probably around the 7c mark up to 11c on occasions and maybe down to 5c on others. hail and maybe ice at night would be the best we would get and even the ice is being optimistic i dont care what met or uk say thats just my opinion. They are better than me but im using the scientific prognosis of the last 3 months plus looking out the window.


  • #938
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Il just leave this here


    I love it when there is at least some FI candy

    gens-5-1-144.png?18


    gens-0-1-204.png?18


  • #939
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Sure Why not If some of that cold could make its way over we would be laughing

    gens-20-1-228_okz0.png

    gens-20-0-228_xvp3.png

    Woops it does

    gens-20-0-240_ekn0.png


    Is that a big strong blocking high over greenland also ?


    ITS FI PEOPLE THIS MORE THAN LIKELY WONT HAPPEN


  • #940
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Sure Why not If some of that cold could make its way over we would be laughing

    ITS FI PEOPLE THIS MORE THAN LIKELY WONT HAPPEN

    Fantastique!

    gens-20-1-0.png?18


  • #941
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Fantastique!

    gens-20-1-0.png?18

    A chart from tonight at 7 bells is hardly FI actually it's the total opposite tis going back in time


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  • #942
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    IF YOUR HAVE A SLOW NET CONNECTION OR YOUR ARE ON YOUR MOBILE EXIT NOW

    ALSO THE IS MEGA FI ONLY ABOUT A 15-20% CHANCE OF SOMETHING LIKE THIS TO HAPPEN

    This is going to be a long one but its such a great FI run from the CFS it would be rude not to put it up.

    cfsnh-2-276_awf8.png

    cfsnh-2-282_rkz2.png

    cfsnh-2-288_nyf6.png

    cfsnh-2-294_ieo5.png

    cfsnh-2-300_bcm4.png

    cfsnh-2-306_qth3.png

    cfsnh-2-312_gue0.png

    cfsnh-2-318_pdy9.png

    cfsnh-2-324_trj6.png

    cfsnh-2-330_nne7.png

    cfsnh-2-336_xaq2.png

    cfsnh-2-342_oyu3.png

    cfsnh-2-348_nzi9.png

    cfsnh-2-354_qah2.png


  • #943
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    cfsnh-2-360_wki0.png

    cfsnh-2-366_lla8.png

    cfsnh-2-372_zvq8.png

    cfsnh-2-378_lbl7.png

    cfsnh-2-384_idg6.png

    cfsnh-2-402_iav2.png

    Its Goes all the way out to T+ 570 in this kind of vein !!!

    Notice them deep black and purple wanting to join the party in eastern Europe :eek:

    cfsnh-2-450_mqj0.png

    cfsnh-2-510_tjv7.png

    cfsnh-2-534_aeq7.png


    And it goes on and becomes a little milder but still cold in around 570,

    I was going to put up the pressure charts too but I there is way to much work in it !!!


  • #944
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Run has 4 days of snowy precipitation :D


  • #945
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Good stuff.
    I was kinda worried opening this thread up there would be the dreaded downgrade. The ecm32 day update was promising, the uk met office still seem to be bit on the fence though. Let's hope not for much longer


  • #946
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Enderman wrote: »
    Run has 4 days of snowy precipitation :D

    As Mt has said in one or two of his posts , if you get snow cover on the ground the cold can dig in deeper , these just really show the potential .

    Id expect more than 4 days in that case !


  • #947
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=127810

    A welcome development, if it's realised.
    like a guest outstaying his/her welcome, it finally decides to leave!


  • #948
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    nacho libre wrote: »
    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=127810

    A welcome development, if it's realised.
    like a guest outstaying his/her welcome, it finally decides to leave!

    Its weakened also ,

    Were talking about the High Pressure to the bottom left of the chart

    The Azores High !


  • #949
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,958 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=127734

    Hopefully this comes to pass as well.


  • #950
    eskimocat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    You know charts like that does me heart good. :D Its amazing to watch the progression and see where the colder air pushes into or gets pushed out from... What has the biggest influence in the directionality of the cold besides blocking? I think I understand blocking a bit but I have no idea about the rest of it! Would topography, sea temps and land temps all go to war with the layer of cold??????


  • #951
    eyesquirm
    Registered Users Posts: 131 ✭✭eyesquirm


    If that chart does come to pass nacho, what can we expect ?


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