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FI CHARTS AUTUMN/WINTER 2014/15 **Mod Note Post #1**

  • 09-10-2014 2:57pm
    #1
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS only i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

    Please use the Winter 2014/15 chat thread or current event thread for everything else. Off Topic posts will be moved.

    Thanks



    First sight of snow for high ground in the north? :pac:


    324585.png


«134567…23

Comments

  • #2
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 16,720 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Woop! I missed this thread and the endless rollercoaster as we approach 96 hours out and the cold front stops before it reaches Ireland. And then we start all over again.


  • #3
    Video
    Registered Users Posts: 635 ✭✭✭Video


    I still have a feeling this is the year for snow... don't know why but i just gots the feels :D


  • #4
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,180 ✭✭✭pauldry


    yeah i think it will be cold too based on ...nothing.

    Maybe climate change and all that might result in a few more cold snaps in Winter! :cool:


  • #5
    gugsy
    Registered Users Posts: 571 ✭✭✭gugsy


    Not even a glimmer of hope for the next 1074h atm. Hopefullly that will change.


  • #6
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,966 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    things look like cooling down alot from about the 25th October onwards.


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  • #7
    vickers209
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Gonzo wrote: »
    things look like cooling down alot from about the 25th October onwards.

    Mts forcast this morning said warming up from 26th??😯😯


  • #8
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    This is the type of charts we want to see! Just not in the first week of November!! 30 days later more like!

    325880.png


  • #9
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    GFS control run , builds heights over Greenland and helps pull in cold air from the NE ...
    327508.png

    This is the kinda thing i'd like to be seeing :cool:


  • #10
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Plenty of Nice charts in FI on today's runs- much nicer Ecm 12z than the 00z earlier and also a very nice 12z gfs parallel run with serious blocking to our north. The 12z Gem day 10 chart is a thing of beauty - someone post charts, I can't right now. Early days yet but some classic charts appearing...

    Edit: heres the Gem day 10 NH chart

    gemnh-0-240.png?12

    ECM Day 10

    ECH1-240.GIF?06-0



    Dan :)


  • #11
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Did somebody order a 18z ramp session!? :pac: :cool:

    327581.png

    9__Metal_FMX_Ramp_JPG.JPG


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  • #12
    Deank
    Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭Deank


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Did somebody order a 18z ramp session!? :pac: :cool:

    327581.png

    9__Metal_FMX_Ramp_JPG.JPG

    Don't do it, FFS you know it won't end well ;)


  • #13
    Duiske
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Did somebody order a 18z ramp session!? :pac: :cool:

    Just popped by to see if anyone else had noticed. :)


  • #14
    gugsy
    Registered Users Posts: 571 ✭✭✭gugsy


    14112218_0618.gif

    An easterly airflow could be the making of our first cold spell towards the end of the month.


  • #15
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    FI on both ECM and GFS indicate serious PV disruption and slight pressure rises over Greenland:

    Europe:
    327607.png

    327606.gif


    Northern Hemisphere:
    327604.jpg

    327605.jpg


  • #16
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Not normally one to want snow, but I'd desperately love to have some in the next couple of weeks! :D


  • #17
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    What a crazy looking chart for November.

    9w3xbNF.png

    Anomalies literally off the scale.

    0yMAKt2.png


  • #18
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Yes thats an amazing complete split of the polar vortex- UKMO in general agreement with the ECM as far as we can see.. We need the GFS back on board now. Very rare charts for November as you say though.



    Dan :)


  • #19
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    maquiladora wrote: »
    What a crazy looking chart for November.

    9w3xbNF.png

    [IMG][/img]5y2b6.jpg



    Error: 404 ; Polar vortex not found :D :pac:


  • #20
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Looks like an improvement on the 12z GFS and UKMO. Starting to come onboard


  • #21
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    ECM 12z is just as good as the 0z if not better! Gets us into an easterly setup within a week! :)


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  • #22
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Holy guacomole!

    ECH1-216.GIF?08-0


  • #23
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    All aboard! November 2010 anybody!?

    - The slower it evolves the longer it will last.

    Very good signals again this evening for potentially something special..

    ECM1-216.GIF


  • #24
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    ECH1-216.GIF

    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcST-7t6Op_qaPwnnnIROr6B2ygp1jPHdS6CuNCUXpdiyK1SYw62NXj_RYE

    Beat me to it lads. ;)


  • #25
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    snow+ramp.jpg


  • #26
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭pad199207


    :eek::eek::eek:

    Too good to be true

    Too good to be true

    Too good to be true .......




    :rolleyes::rolleyes:


  • #27
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    Amazing.

    ECH1-240.GIF?08-0

    I'm not saying this will happen (hope to god it does), but you just have to admire such amazing synoptics, especially after last years excuse for a winter! :D


  • #28
    arctictree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Is mid November a bit early for an eastery to deliver? I would think that the continent is nowhere as cold as it would be in Jan/Feb.


  • #29
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    snowstorm445 wrote: »
    Amazing.

    ECH1-240.GIF?08-0



    ...............
    .......
    .....








    mother-of-god-gif.gif


  • #30
    Calibos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Right, thats it. I'm ordering some Winter Tires, Snow Grips for me shoes, some snow shovels :D


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  • #31
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Calibos wrote: »
    Right, thats it. I'm ordering some Winter Tires, Snow Grips for me shoes, some snow shovels :D

    Now now... tis the FI thread after all ... :p :rolleyes:


  • #32
    Lucreto
    Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I hate this thread. All the hype in this thread over the past few years and being shot down each time.

    This year is going to be especially bad I think.


  • #33
    Rikand
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    arctictree wrote: »
    Is mid November a bit early for an eastery to deliver? I would think that the continent is nowhere as cold as it would be in Jan/Feb.

    A lot of the recent images show all that coming in from Norway and Sweden and we all know what happened the last time snow came in from that way around the 20th of November :)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2010%E2%80%9311_in_Great_Britain_and_Ireland#22.E2.80.9324_November


  • #34
    elecktras weather bomb
    Registered Users Posts: 80 ✭✭elecktras weather bomb


    Lucreto wrote: »
    I hate this thread. All the hype in this thread over the past few years and being shot down each time.

    This year is going to be especially bad I think.

    my rationale is telling me your right but lord knows us starved of snow or just even seasonal weather deserve some sort of break after the mild mush last year. is it possible? I don't know heard of same case scenario 2012 and Ecm may have bias for raising heights. I imagine it shall be total lunacy in here if all the other models come into agreement . but hand on heart we are usually wrong side of the equation or get the watered down version. but hey on a whim I reckon you will have a ramp yet !even if it tis only one decent snow day this year. cheers


  • #35
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    GFS 18z coming up now. Get your F5s ready...

    gkkllder.gif


  • #36
    howlinwolf
    Registered Users Posts: 332 ✭✭howlinwolf


    was wondering , having looked at the charts over the last few days , albeit through confused eyes , are the charts in any way consistent with the breakup of the pv over the artic or is every run/day different as in where the cold is getting pushed and by how much....seems from my very limited knowledge the charts are agreeing that there is a pv split happening but it seems very random and disorganised on every run


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  • #37
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    howlinwolf wrote: »
    was wondering , having looked at the charts over the last few days , albeit through confused eyes , are the charts in any way consistent with the breakup of the pv over the artic or is every run/day different as in where the cold is getting pushed and by how much....seems from my very limited knowledge the charts are agreeing that there is a pv split happening but it seems very random and disorganised on every run

    Some degree of vortex disruption looks to be very likely now. What we don't know is where the colder air will spread to in the mid-latitudes following the disruption and how long until the vortex reorganizes.


  • #38
    pad199207
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,221 ✭✭✭pad199207


    12z GFS seems to push better Heights towards Greenland. Looks better then the ECM on some days

    This new GFS Parallel doesnt seem to have a clue . So inconsistent!

    UKMO is the last one now to come onboard. Or will it be right and stab us all in the back?


  • #39
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    pad199207 wrote: »
    12z GFS seems to push better Heights towards Greenland. Looks better then the ECM on some days

    This new GFS Parallel doesnt seem to have a clue . So inconsistent!

    UKMO is the last one now to come onboard. Or will it be right and stab us all in the back?


    Il take that- UKMO day 6

    UN144-21.GIF?09-17







    Dan :)


  • #40
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    To be honest, I really wouldn't be getting too excited about anything yet. I have a feeling we'll end up with a fairly short lived period of blocking with the cold air locked away to our northeast.

    Just a gut feeling, it's too early to know. But at least it's a bit of FI fun anyway.

    I think things will be more interesting when we get into December, hopefully after some good strat warmings.


  • #41
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Ice/Snow Cover 2010
    ims2010314_asiaeurope.gif

    Ice/Snow Cover 2013
    ims2013313_asiaeurope.gif

    Ice/Snow Cover 2014
    cursnow_asiaeurope.gif


    Ice has already moved in on Svalbard. Given our location, our warm sea and the necessicty for so many ingredients to be correct for snow. I think we need to first look at the cold pool to the East. We need to build up on that so that any block that forms in the Atlantic can allow cold air to filter in rapidly. If we need the block to last 4+ days, then we are talking rare occasions and clutching at straws.
    FI is nice on the eyes, but this early on in Ireland, keep dreaming :)

    For blizzards in Ireland, not only do we need the planets to be inline, we also need their moons to be inline :)


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  • #42
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    While it doesent lead to much on this run, its nice to see a fully split vortex at day 5.


    gfsnh-0-120.png?6




    Dan :)


  • #43
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Typhoon Nuri and that record deep Barents Sea storm may force too much energy and prevent that nice cross polar block that was being progged a few days ago.

    Only the 10th of November, so we have plenty of time for something to develop and the PV doesn't look too well organised as of yet.


  • #44
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM sending -12 uppers into...Texas.


  • #45
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I like the look of the GEM , yes its the GEM but sure why not let it have a shot at things ha.

    Cold pool feeding into Scandinavia and pressure building over Greenland where i would like to see it setting up shop there to give a better chance of an easterly feed then a few days later for us.
    327959.png

    Some of the GFS ensembles showing similar with the vortex sliced right through.

    327959.png


    327962.png
    :cool:


  • #46
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECMWF edging away from that cross polar ridge

    ECH1-216.GIF?10-0


  • #47
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,184 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Grotesque! Shocking!

    ECM1-240.GIF


  • #48
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    Grotesque! Shocking!

    Can you explain this chart Elmer Brooker?!


  • #49
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,752 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    leahyl wrote: »
    Can you explain this chart Elmer Brooker?!


    My own explanation is save and retire to Spain or Portugal as the Atlantic looks to be in charge for North west Europe, which is normal fair and the weather in Iberia looks decent...normal fair too.


  • #50
    ltdslipdiff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 759 ✭✭✭ltdslipdiff


    Please can someone post some FI eye candy? I hate seeing this thread so quiet!


  • #51
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ltdslipdiff wrote: »
    Please can someone post some FI eye candy? I hate seeing this thread so quiet!

    9l5UA2c.png
    gBJYjSC.png


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