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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion: Autumn/Winter 2016-17
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I wonder will we see some natural Fireworks early Sunday morning into Sunday behind the front in the brisk Northerly unstable airflow. Looks like plenty of wintry showers on high ground with cold uppers.
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Weathercheck wrote: »Surely errors ? Very little instability today in broad warm sector
Was wondering that, been checking uppers and upper winds to see what was going on ?
Using the same detector ? http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html
EDIT: Yea same one from the Met Office0 -
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A strong, negatively titled trough is forecast to push through from the Atlantic midday Friday leading to some good convective potential.
If skies are clear enough for limited diurnal heating, a few hundred joules of CAPE is expected to form.
Strong mid level shear of up to 40knts means cells will last longer and could possibly merge into a squall line.
With upper temps down to -35c a strong lapse rate will result and give the potential for some decent sized hail.
Low level shear is in the range of 15-20knts so small chance of funnel clouds perhaps a weak tornado.
Main threat will be Munster for thunderstorms up until just after dark, however a squall line system is probable, heading NE giving us all something to look out for.
Will be interesting to see if things continue to be favourable when the hi res model comes into range.0 -
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Thurs and Fri look like potential days for lightning. Thurs possible for squall lines , lot of convergence in that storm system , very cold 500hpa temperatures and sufficient wind sheer in my amateur and learning opinion
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Was just looking up the charts weisses as I thought I heard a rumble here near Tralee also and just had a big hail shower, could be getting more into the night perhaps ? and tomorrow looking half decent.
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This is from Netweather .... http://www.netweather.tv/
The other from http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html0 -
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Some serious hail starting here in West Clare, not particularly heavy but god they're like pebbles.
Update: Mini-Cell seems to have moved away, just rain now but a severe temperature drop with it.
Update 2: Massive sudden outbreak of hail.
Update 3: Rain. + Rate of 17.8mm/h
Update 4: Where's a boat when you need one.:D
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pedigree 6 wrote: »Update 4: Where's a boat when you need one.:D
Haha
It rained a fair bit, got alot.more rain out of that prolonged shower than I did from the two fronts that passed earlier today! 13.6mm so far today.0 -
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Yeah looks like a classic setup tomorrow for some stingingly cold hail showers
500mb temps between -25 and -30 given rise to decent lapse rates
Some instability and good DLS will produce some nice cloudscapes, Cb incus and most likely some mammatus about too.
DLS in the 65knot range - Squall line potential.
Trough crossing the so should be quite widespread activity.
Due to low CAPE values however, lightning activity will be low, confined to coastlines IMO.0 -
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Potential for Lightning Sun night into Mon perhaps along the Atlantic coast
Thundersnow, mayhaps?0 -
ESTOFEX LVL 1 issued for tomorrow.
A level 1 was issued for W British Isles mainly for severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Ridge stretches from Azores through Iberian Peninsula up to France. Two long-wave troughs travel through Europe, one moves from CNTRL to E Europe and the second enters British Isles in the end of the forecast period. Southwardly moving cut-off is located over CNTRL Mediterranean. Another ridge covers E Mediterranean and Turkey. A shallow weak convection with a marginal lightning potential may develop within a mid-level wave over Belarus and Ukraine. Although boundary layer will be quite dry (2-3 g/kg MIXR) a very steep lapse rates (> 8 K/km) will provide 100-200 J/kg CAPE. Weak lightning activity is also possible with upcoming cold front affecting W British Isles around noon hours. Strong linear forcing of relatively moist boundary layer (MIXR ~ 6-7 g/kg) produces lobes of CAPE up to 100-200 J/kg and thus shallow-convection which combined with strong low-level flow (~ 25 m/s at 850 hPa) poses a threat of severe wind gusts along frontal boundary.0 -
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