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Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

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    #62
    Arequipa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Arequipa


    Alberto Contador
    Hopefully i can mention the Dauphine now..

    I know it is only a warm up for the Tour, but jesus, Froome was impressive yesterday..
    When he attacks in the last few kms with that cadence & power, it is hard to see who would keep with him...
    Nibali will improve & is probably a better all round bike handler...

    But Froome just seems to blow everyone outta the water...
    Amazing & hopefully its 'pain y agua!' ...


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    #63
    pelevin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭pelevin


    Thibaut Pinot
    Froome was very impressive but at the same time it was 'only' Van Garderen in terms of the one-to-one fight he was blowing away. Valverde & Nibali were presumably a fair bit off their best, though otoh with Froome himself yet to hit his TdF peak. TVG in last year's TdF for instance finished 11 & half minutes behind Nibali. I think Froome right now does deserve to be outright favourite but, even taking out the team time trial, he took a combined 40 seconds or so out of TVG in the whole race, including some helpful bonus seconds. Not a terrifying amount. Quintana for instance if where he wants to be form-wise, could well have lived with him on the slopes. Contador beat him in the Vuelta.
    Agreed though he does look very strong.


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    #64
    happytramp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,596 ✭✭✭happytramp


    Arequipa wrote: »
    Hopefully i can mention the Dauphine now..

    I know it is only a warm up for the Tour, but jesus, Froome was impressive yesterday..
    When he attacks in the last few kms with that cadence & power, it is hard to see who would keep with him...
    Nibali will improve & is probably a better all round bike handler...

    But Froome just seems to blow everyone outta the water...
    Amazing & hopefully its 'pain y agua!' ...

    Froome's one potential weakness seems to be his over reliance on the same plan day in day out. Have his riders set tempo, deliver him to the last few, then launch a blistering attack. Bad weather, early, sporadic attacking, tend to unsettle the plan and leave him isolated and open to being forced to respond to counter attacks. Guys like Contador and Nibali are too wiley not to exploit that, not so sure about Movistar though.


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    #65
    TheBlaaMan
    Registered Users Posts: 3,442 ✭✭✭TheBlaaMan


    pelevin wrote: »
    Froome was very impressive but at the same time it was 'only' Van Garderen in terms of the one-to-one fight he was blowing away. Valverde & Nibali were presumably a fair bit off their best, though otoh with Froome himself yet to hit his TdF peak. TVG in last year's TdF for instance finished 11 & half minutes behind Nibali. I think Froome right now does deserve to be outright favourite but, even taking out the team time trial, he took a combined 40 seconds or so out of TVG in the whole race, including some helpful bonus seconds. Not a terrifying amount. Quintana for instance if where he wants to be form-wise, could well have lived with him on the slopes. Contador beat him in the Vuelta.
    Agreed though he does look very strong.

    TJvG would have won the Dauphine if there were no time bonuses...... Which would have been a travesty given that he won no stages (TTT aside) and Froome won two


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    #66
    pelevin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭pelevin


    Thibaut Pinot
    TheBlaaMan wrote: »
    TJvG would have won the Dauphine if there were no time bonuses...... Which would have been a travesty given that he won no stages (TTT aside) and Froome won two

    Though I don't know about it being a travesty. Contador won the Giro without a stage win, & it was certainly no travesty. You could look for instance at the great stage of the Nibali breakaway where TVG did a fair bit of work driving at the front trying to not lose too much time. Froome from what we could see wasn't willing to do any time at the front, & actually stole some seconds passing the much harder working TVG at the death. If we get too caught up in the supposed moral truth of the race twould seem right to call both the time & energy saved by Froome there as a travesty.


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    #67
    Trojan
    Registered Users Posts: 16,402 ✭✭✭✭Trojan


    In fairness Sky could probably do with a couple of co-leader types, given their recent history of leaders abandoning.

    🎙️ The Recognized Authority Podcast



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    #68
    MPFG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,606 ✭✭✭MPFG


    Trojan wrote: »
    In fairness Sky could probably do with a couple of co-leader types, given their recent history of leaders abandoning.

    Porte ??

    He will get back into the portacabin....:D


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    #69
    Trojan
    Registered Users Posts: 16,402 ✭✭✭✭Trojan


    Oops, that was meant to be posted here: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=95892454&postcount=66 :)

    🎙️ The Recognized Authority Podcast



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    #70
    Arequipa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Arequipa


    Alberto Contador
    Team Sky look quite strong.. If Porte recovers full form, he would be a great lead out man in the mountains..

    As one of you said, Sky's tactic is obvious to all the other teams...
    Roche seems to be the last man to sling-shot Froome, but i think Roche looks vulnerable & seems quite heavy for the big climbs(compared to Quintana, Froome, Contador...) In the team time trial, Roche clungbon for dear life(in the Dauphine)

    Deignan seems like a more consistent & stronger climber than Roche... He's a real unsung hero Phillip Deignan...


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    #71
    happytramp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,596 ✭✭✭happytramp


    Arequipa wrote: »

    Deignan seems like a more consistent & stronger climber than Roche... He's a real unsung hero Phillip Deignan...

    When it comes to domestique duties possibly but Roche went really well in the Vuelta in 2013 (5th) Maybe it's harder to push yourself to the absolute limit as a domestique when you've been a GC man for so many years.


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    #72
    happytramp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,596 ✭✭✭happytramp


    it seems (on paper) the easiest way to disrupt SKY (Froome) would be to go into the Tour with a couple of strong GC men in your team. It's too easy for Sky to set place while Froome watches the other team leaders. Aru would be a great foil for Nibali and leave SKY having to peg back any of his attacks. Likewise the likes of Majka or Kreuziger could do the same for Tinkoff. Movistar seem the best placed right now with Quintanna and Valverde starting but they never seem to get things quite right tactically.


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    #73
    MPFG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,606 ✭✭✭MPFG


    happytramp wrote: »
    When it comes to domestique duties possibly but Roche went really well in the Vuelta in 2013 (5th) Maybe it's harder to push yourself to the absolute limit as a domestique when you've been a GC man for so many years.

    even though I said I would bow out of this argument as lone wolf here...can't let this go

    I don;t agree that Roche is not a good dom and not willing to work for a team...just look at who did the lion share of the work in Andalusia, Paris Nice, Catalunya and Romandie for team SKY this year ..Roche ...there every day when others were MIA on occasions...no wonder he is tired ... and that was for 2 different leaders....His work rate and willingness in a dom role is not in question in my book

    Also the point i was trying to make re supporting both Irish riders before being accused of mindless 'jingoism' is this is not a competition between Roche & Deignan as many Irish fans seem to be making it....As if Roche is somehow stopping Deignan's selection..I have this argument elsewhere with words like "hope Philip is picked before Roche ".

    Deignan will be selected in preference to riders like Nieve or Konig or Lopez ..if selected....He would play a different role to Roche anyways

    Nico was tired at the Dauphine ..he is not allowed to be tired ? but Nibali is allowed to pull over if he can't make the end ....so many riders were not ready at the Dauphine...but it has turned into a catalogue of Nico Roches unsuitability ...no one else it seems and that in my book is unfair

    Also the TTT at the Dauphine Poels & Stannard blew but Nico who also went too hard early on clung on for dear life....so that became a testament to his unsuitability in TTTs but not the others ???

    And I don;t agree Philip Deignan has climbed better that Nico Roche this year...Philip Deignan rode races like ToY and TOC where the competition was less while Roche rode mostly World Tour races

    I would say though Deignan as he proved in Yorkshire is a cannier racer ..he is about 7/8KG lighter than Roche and can probably last longer on long climbs ...Roche in form is better at high speed on the shorter steeper climbs like in the Vuelta

    I would bring both and used them differently ...Roche as road captain and 3rd/4th wheel in the train depending on the stage

    Deignan for the longer climbs in the 3rd week especially


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    #74
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users Posts: 1,632 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    happytramp wrote: »
    it seems (on paper) the easiest way to disrupt SKY (Froome) would be to go into the Tour with a couple of strong GC men in your team. It's too easy for Sky to set place while Froome watches the other team leaders. Aru would be a great foil for Nibali and leave SKY having to peg back any of his attacks. Likewise the likes of Majka or Kreuziger could do the same for Tinkoff. Movistar seem the best placed right now with Quintanna and Valverde starting but they never seem to get things quite right tactically.

    Hmmm, so only Team SKY would respond to an attack by another possible GC contender and SKY would be forced to respond? Seems a tad simplistic really. Especially if the aim is to say have Nibali win anyway. If all the teams conspired as a whole against them, then yes this would possibly work. Where would he attack? In the mountains where Froom is going to attack and is the strongest or second strongest anyway? On the flats where anyone who does attack is doomed to be chewed up and spit out. I don't think it's a tactical thing with Movistar, the individuals just fall short when handed the baton, with the plan say for valverde to burn off into the clouds being ruined when he is dropped an left for dead by Froome or Contador. There's only so much tactics can do in that instance


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    #75
    MPFG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,606 ✭✭✭MPFG


    I just hope it not the SKY train day in and day out....but I fear it will be

    Quintana working with Nibs & Contador to disrupt it ???
    Can't see that

    But then a Quintana long range attack may do something ...he is very capable of those

    Nibali will try something on the cobbles for sure but I don't think he can in the mountains and not pay for it

    Maybe Contador might try something on a flat /rolling stage ...if he is behind he will throw the kitchen sink at it .....its win or bust for him


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    #76
    happytramp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,596 ✭✭✭happytramp


    the.red.baron wrote: »
    Hmmm, so only Team SKY would respond to an attack by another possible GC contender and SKY would be forced to respond? Seems a tad simplistic really.

    Well my hypothesis is based purely on the idea of Froome being in yellow and showing an extremely strong desire to have his train set the pace. :)

    Of course i wouldn't expect them to have respond if Contador is leading by some margin and Nibali and Quintana go off the front. The real problem with the sky train is that they literally get lit up and discarded like matches in supporting their team leader. So in other words if Froome were to find himself isolated with two Astana guys in the top 10, in theory they could hit him with the 1,2 combo. Of course Froome and his doms are often the strongest climbers (or very close) so this rarely happens. Honestly I'm just hoping for some sequence of events not to turn the mountain stages of the tour into the sky train show.


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    #77
    Shedite27
    Registered Users Posts: 9,367 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Shedite27 wrote: »
    Just had a look at how PP are seeing it....

    2/1 Quintana
    3/1 Froome
    4/1 Contador
    5/1 Nibali
    Froome now 6/4 favorite after Dauphine...

    6/4 Froome
    3/1 Quintana
    4/1 Contador
    6/1 Nibali


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    #78
    Lusk_Doyle
    Registered Users Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭Lusk_Doyle


    happytramp wrote: »
    Well my hypothesis is based purely on the idea of Froome being in yellow and showing an extremely strong desire to have his train set the pace. :)

    Of course i wouldn't expect them to have respond if Contador is leading by some margin and Nibali and Quintana go off the front. The real problem with the sky train is that they literally get lit up and discarded like matches in supporting their team leader. So in other words if Froome were to find himself isolated with two Astana guys in the top 10, in theory they could hit him with the 1,2 combo. Of course Froome and his doms are often the strongest climbers (or very close) so this rarely happens. Honestly I'm just hoping for some sequence of events not to turn the mountain stages of the tour into the sky train show.

    In theory communism works. In theory.


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    #79
    Arequipa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Arequipa


    Alberto Contador
    Dont get me wrong, i admire N Roche.. Its an incredibly tough sport.. To be even chosen to ride with Froome is something else...

    Team Sky domestiques give 110% to getting & keeping Froome in yellow..
    They will literally ride themselves into the ground to weaken the peleton & set him up..

    Do the other team's donestiques show this loyalty & commitment to the GC leader?!

    Possibly the teams will have to work together to disrupt sky..

    Only a certain number of strong GC riders can isolate Froome; Contador, Nibali, Quintana...?!
    Maybe if these guys attack on successive days to wear Froome & Sky down & then if and when he weakens they can compete amoungst themselves...


    They dont want a Sky train pulverising the peleton & spitting everyone out the back.. Reminds me of US postal & the Blue Train..

    (No connection intended to their use of Peds etc..)


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    #80
    happytramp
    Registered Users Posts: 2,596 ✭✭✭happytramp


    Arequipa wrote: »
    Do the other team's donestiques show this loyalty & commitment to the GC leader?!

    Not that I've ever seen. They seem to take real pride in burying themselves and inflicting as much damage as possible on the riders behind them. There's certainly other riders out there who'll do it but I've not seen such an ingrained mentality on an entire team before.........baring Postal of course but they don't count, or at least the fruits of their efforts didn't I should say ;)


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    #81
    pelevin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭pelevin


    Thibaut Pinot
    Then again the World Championships in 2013, made up of 5 Sky riders out of 8 in total, the entire team had abandoned with 100 kms to go. Rob Ellingworth, the team manager said, "“The lads’ attitude was not where it needed to be. To have all of them sat on the team bus with 100km still to go in the race is not what you want to happen.”
    The year Wiggins won the TDF, he was seriously on the verge of abandoning whilst in Yellow because he considered his domestique Chris Froome to be riding mutinously!

    Not that I'm questioning the general commitment but, adding a touch of Devil's Advocate, there has been a few hiccoughs.


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    #82
    Lusk_Doyle
    Registered Users Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭Lusk_Doyle


    On the verge of abandoning while in yellow because of a hissy fit? Hardly credible that.


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    #83
    MPFG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,606 ✭✭✭MPFG


    If were a top cyclist I would seriously think twice before going to SKY no matter that you have your own mattress , flash gear, good salary and a very good set up with a big chair on a big bus

    I'd rather, like the Yates twins to do my own thing ...riding the train not only curtails your ambition but it curtails your chances of riding on your wits, finding chances , making things happen......and if you do get a chance then you are probably too knackered to take it

    Can you imagine Tommy Vockleur or Dan Martin doing it...never ...riders who ride on their wits would be suffocated in GTs

    I can understand why Philip Diegnan joined SKY...it has brought him back into the World Tour and its very hard to get a contract these days.... but Nico could have gone to alot of teams last year ...I guess he felt that SKY would make him a better rider ...constantly under the pressure to live up to expectations is my take ... not least from his father who talks as if Nico is still a neo pro and its only a matter of time

    SKY have smart riders like Stannard & Thomas but we will only see them in a train in the Tour ..pity


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    #84
    D9Male
    Registered Users Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    Based on the Giro last month and last year's Tour, I think Tinkoff and Astana doms are going to be very strong...possibly challenging for the podium. Majka and Fuglsgang are the two I am considering backing at tall prices.


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    #85
    pelevin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭pelevin


    Thibaut Pinot
    D9Male wrote: »
    Based on the Giro last month and last year's Tour, I think Tinkoff and Astana doms are going to be very strong...possibly challenging for the podium. Majka and Fuglsgang are the two I am considering backing at tall prices.

    I'd personally not consider backing them for anything other than stage wins.


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    #86
    pelevin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭pelevin


    Thibaut Pinot
    Lusk_Doyle wrote: »
    On the verge of abandoning while in yellow because of a hissy fit? Hardly credible that.

    It's certainly bizarre but seems to have been verified from within Sky as pretty certainly true. Also puts into perspective the imo ridiculous idea Wiggins is one of the all-time greats. To be an all-time great of such a brutal sport inescapably involves huge & pretty consistent mental toughness but the clear lack of which Wiggins again very visibly showed, & this time on the road, during his 2013 Giro ride. Then Nibali & Wiggins crashed on the same descent, Nibali whilst attacking. Before Nibali's bike had practically stopped sliding from the crash, he had run, grabbed it & was off again. Wiggins by contrast crawled down the mountain, his whole team having to wait over 2 miinutes for him, & basically surrendered then & there in the race that was his huge focus for the year. Obviously he's done great things but I'm just going off on the tangent of him being considered one of the all-time greats.


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    #87
    MPFG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,606 ✭✭✭MPFG


    Lusk_Doyle wrote: »
    On the verge of abandoning while in yellow because of a hissy fit? Hardly credible that.

    That wasn't having a hissy fit...he was just having an emotional day ...he lost his Jam CD and CAV ate all his bourbons .....understandable I'd say ...I am surprised he didn't thrash the death star like any respectable superstar would do in the same circumstances


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    #88
    L'Enfer du Nord
    Registered Users Posts: 587 ✭✭✭L'Enfer du Nord


    I think 'trains' are over rated. I know cycling is a team sport and it's not always easy to separate the individual from the team. But think about it, would the sky train be any use without Froome? Sky as far as I know have only won two Grand Tours. Remember the US postal train? I think their was a Banesto train. Change the team leader an suddenly the train isn't quite so formidable.


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    #89
    pelevin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,630 ✭✭✭pelevin


    Thibaut Pinot
    L'Enfer du Nord wrote: »
    I think 'trains' are over rated. I know cycling is a team sport and it's not always easy to separate the individual from the team. But think about it, would the sky train be any use without Froome? Sky as far as I know have only won two Grand Tours. Remember the US postal train? I think their was a Banesto train. Change the team leader an suddenly the train isn't quite so formidable.

    I don't think anyone doubts that, just as a sprint train isn't much use without someone pretty special to finish it off. Sky I think are generally rightly considered great in physiological terms - their big focus seeming to generally be all about physical improvements to a rider's performance, as again with the motorhome thing now - but very one-dimensional tactically, and seem to have a dependence on feeling in control. Froome seems so powerful physically that the train should be far from essential but to take for example the 2013 Worlds I earlier mentioned, Froome was in the lead group but abandoned because he had no team-mates with him, saying he saw it wasn't going to be his day. Compare that weirdly defeatist attitude to Contador on his own against the Astana train day after day in the Giro this year.


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    #90
    D9Male
    Registered Users Posts: 1,644 ✭✭✭D9Male


    Fair enough pelevin, that is how it worked with Majka last year. I just think it is likely that the big squads will have Plan B in case their big guns go sour in the first week. Majka has been told he will have a free role, for instance.


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    #91
    Lusk_Doyle
    Registered Users Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭Lusk_Doyle


    D9Male wrote: »
    Fair enough pelevin, that is how it worked with Majka last year. I just think it is likely that the big squads will have Plan B in case their big guns go sour in the first week. Majka has been told he will have a free role, for instance.

    Yea but a free role does not a GC contender make.


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