Tour de France 2015 thread Please use spoiler tags before midnight

Arequipa · 05-06-2015 8:49am #1

I am looking forward to the TDF 2015..
Barring injury/crashes/illness.. There should be an exciting lineup..

Who do you think will win & why?

My favourite rider is Contador: i love his attacking style, but he may be fatigued after the Giro.

Froome is a strong contender: he had a mixed up Spring with illness & injury.. But is back from a big stint of training at altitude in Tenerife.. When he goes @ full gas in the mountains few can keep with him...

Nibali is a dark horse.. A really strong all rounder & death defying descender..

Quintana is an amazing climber.. But is young & very light.. So he mightnt have the power of the others in the TT's....

Cant wait...

What you think?

Lusk_Doyle · 05-06-2015 8:52am

Nibali won't get within an asses roar of the other three unless they have crashes or mechanicals. He is more a diesel engine and doesn't have the accelerarion of the others to stay with them.

lennymc · 05-06-2015 9:09am

Alberto Contador

nibali destroyed the others on the cobbles last year. Froome DNF, Copntador 2.37 down. Quintana doesn't like cobbles - didnt he abandon some of the classics earlier in the year? I wouldnt be so quick to write nibbles off just yet.

Hopefully nibbles does the same again this year forcing attacks from the rest. Think stage 4 is the cobbles this year. Also the TT's are not as long this year.

pelevin · 05-06-2015 9:29am

Thibaut Pinot

I know they've tried to change the make-up of the Points jersey this year to prevent it being a foregone conclusion for Sagan, especially boosting the points for stage winners. Given the incredible year Kristoff's had, & by contrast despite Tour of California, the disappointing year for Sagan, I'd have thought Kristoff could be in with a real shout of that, and much better than the bookies odds reflect. He's still nothing like the climber Sagan can be though so we'll see how that reflects.

In terms of the overall, I'd see it as total guesswork in terms of who'll win. I'd like to see Nibali do a great Tour though Froome & Quintana should be certainly the outright favourites, & Contador surely up against it.

Kavrocks · 05-06-2015 9:34am

Thibaut Pinot

I think the climbs and route suits Nibali quite well but can we count on Froome and Contador losing so much time again? I'm not sure on Quintana and how he will get along with Valverde. How will Contador get on when Tinkoff will be trying to win the points jersey and sprints too with Sagan? Will he have any help to take away from Contador or will he be out to fend on his own? Will Porte bounce back for Froome?

The list of questions goes on. It makes it a very interesting race again this year though. Lets just hope it lives up to it and comes close to the excitement the Giro brought!

pelevin · 05-06-2015 9:38am

Thibaut Pinot

I meant to add that - by the sounds of it Tinkoff team will be all about Contador with Sagan's Points jersey a very minor consideration if at all. Words are cheap though & with circumstances that could easily change.
Katusha even with J Rodriguez should be very focused on Kristoff.

irishrover99 · 05-06-2015 9:42am

Contador looks tired
Froome looks sick
Nibali looks out of form- again
Quintana crashes tightening his shoes

So who knows. Will be interesting racing

Dcully · 05-06-2015 11:09am

Lusk_Doyle wrote: »

Nibali won't get within an asses roar of the other three unless they have crashes or mechanicals. He is more a diesel engine and doesn't have the accelerarion of the others to stay with them.

Jaysus i wouldnt be so sure,sometimes his diesel engine is more than enough,just look how well Hesjedal with his diesel engine done in the giro.
If Astana perform anything like they did in the giro Nibali will be in a great place.

A battle between Nibs,Bertie and Froome is a long time coming, we were robbed of it last year, throw quintana into the mix and it could be great entertainment.

retalivity · 05-06-2015 11:50am

Honestly cannot call it.

Contador may be too tired
Nibali may destroy everyone on the cobbles
Froome may crash again
Quintana might lose a chunk of time in the TT...

Would love to see Quintana dance away from everyone on the mountains though

lennymc · 05-06-2015 11:56am

Alberto Contador

the individual TT is only 13k long this year - cant see anyone loosing lots of time on that. The team TT is 28k long. On recent form you would have to be looking at Astana for that, unless Etixx up their game. The stages look to be much shorter this year, similar to the giro, so hopefully we will have the same exciting racing!

devonp · 05-06-2015 12:00pm

Alberto Contador

retalivity wrote: »

Honestly cannot call it.

Contador may be too tired
Nibali may destroy everyone on the cobbles
Froome may crash again
Quintana might lose a chunk of time in the TT...

Would love to see Quintana dance away from everyone on the mountains though

+1 yes me too, hope he dishes it out to them on the mountains

lmguillou · 05-06-2015 12:04pm

Thibault Pinot!

30 years after Bernard Hinault it s about time for a french rider to bring back the yellow jersey home... I wish

MPFG · 05-06-2015 12:22pm

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Purito
4. Nibli

Contador about 5th or 6th

Think Nibali will make time up on the cobbles but lose it in the mountains

of course the above is based on no crashes or with drawls.....but that never happens

But looking at the fleld it must be the strongest in a long time
Valverde, Pinot, Bardet, Pozzo, Mollema, Talansky,TJVG, Peraud, Martin.Hesjedal,Uran.Aru,Barguil,Fuglsang,TenDam,Kelderman,Majka,Kwait, Rolland,Yates twins,Scarponi,Costa,Kruijswijk ,Gesink

And SKY doms alone ...Porte, Roche,Henao,Konig,Poels,Thomas, Nieve, Stannard

Good luck getting atop 10 in that field ... Wonder if Zubeldia can pull it off again

manwithaplan · 05-06-2015 1:35pm

Nibali for me. Solid all round and with a strong team. While I like him as a rider, I hope I'm wrong about him winning as Astana are extremely hard to love.

joxerjohn · 05-06-2015 2:49pm

Froome dog for me, he will very determined to make up for the disappointment of last year. And I think it will be Nibali and Astana the danger.

It will be interesting to see how Froome goes in the Dauphine we will see if he is in form.

Shedite27 · 05-06-2015 3:24pm

Just had a look at how PP are seeing it....

2/1 Quintana
3/1 Froome
4/1 Contador
5/1 Nibali

Not a whole lot in it.

Brian? · 05-06-2015 3:35pm

Nairo Quintana

Shedite27 wrote: »

Just had a look at how PP are seeing it....

2/1 Quintana
3/1 Froome
4/1 Contador
5/1 Nibali

Not a whole lot in it.

I'm tempted to take that 3/1 about Froome now, it'll be shorter after the Dauphine I reckon.

I'd like to see Contador do it, but I'm struggling to see where Contador can put real time into Quintana or Froome. I'm just hoping it's not a classic Skybot performance that turns it into a cake walk for Froome.

My prediction:

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Nibali.

I reckon Contador will go on a crazy attack and lose minutes on the GC because he's losing. He won't ride within himself for a podium.

Pudsy33 · 05-06-2015 4:39pm

Nairo Quintana

The lack of TT miles handicaps Froome to some degree. I honestly think Berty will win it.

YeahOK · 05-06-2015 4:50pm

Nairo Quintana

Bertie at 4/1 seems a decent bet. Froome will crash, bonk, put any other obstacle in his own way that he can, make no mistake of that. Nibali won't be let get away with another cobble ride like last year, so can't see his diesel engine getting the better of Bertie's explosive pace in the hills and I just don't rate Quintana as a TDF winner / contender.

JohnBee · 05-06-2015 4:51pm

Definitely think Astana were playing a long term game by working on Contador even though a win for them was not in sight. Contador's main issue is his team, he rode the Giro like a sole rider with no team, hopefully this will not be the case.

As for Nibali? We all know he would not have won last year if his main contenders had completed the race.

BTW I thought Froome was not going to race TDF this year or am I imagining that?

Trojan · 05-06-2015 4:57pm

JohnBee wrote: »

Definitely think Astana were playing a long term game by working on Contador even though a win for them was not in sight. Contador's main issue is his team, he rode the Giro like a sole rider with no team, hopefully this will not be the case.

I think this was the Astana plan too, they were putting him under all sorts of pressure. Mind you, they still should have gone for the GC win on stage 19.

JohnBee · 05-06-2015 4:59pm

Trojan wrote: »

I think this was the Astana plan too, they were putting him under all sorts of pressure. Mind you, they still should have gone for the GC win on stage 19.

In terms of GC win, no doubt Landa's performance may have confused the overall team goals. He was legendary and I reckon if he was given the go ahead he definitely would have been a contender for the GC. No doubt being the domestique for Aru did not facilitate this.

unichall · 05-06-2015 7:26pm

Bertie was lacking support in the mountains in the Giro but he will have a very different team supporting him in the Tour. He will have at least Basso, majka, krueziger, Sagan, rogers, kiserlovski plus a few others.

That is a much stronger team than he had at the Giro, plus for all the strength of Astana they found it very difficult to put him under pressure. I'm not saying its a guaranteed win but imo he won't be looking at 5/6th place, he will be there or there about with all the other favourites.

happytramp · 05-06-2015 7:32pm

YeahOK wrote: »

Nibali won't be let get away with another cobble ride like last year.

Not sure what he did last year is something you 'get away with' i'd say its more a case of something that you either can or you can't do.

Arequipa · 05-06-2015 7:53pm

Alberto Contador

Its an exciting prospect!
Thanks for the feedback..
I think Contador and Nibali are really clever, seasoned pros...if they are fit, they will be there or thereabouts..

Contador is tough as nails..remember last season, he broke his shinbone in a 75km crash,...tried to cycle for over 25km and then eventually retired from the race..
He then recovers and wins the Vuelta..doping issues aside, he is one tough mof*!

Nibali is a real all rounder and has the mental strength to lead and win a tour..

Quintana is an incredible climber...but I have no idea how he will fare..

I think Froome is the danger man..he is hungry, rested and has a fab team behind him..
Any of you see him in the Dauphine last year..?
When Froome is 100% he puts down incredible power and cadence in the mountains and at his peak, I think the other contenders will struggle to hold his wheel...
Porte will ride himslef into the ground as a lead-out man...

Poor Contador has a much weaker team in terms of domestics to lead him up the climbs..It is one reason i admire him so much..he generally does it on his own!
It was impressive how he ran into trouble in the Sestriere stage and didn't panic and limited his losses...

So yea overall, if Froome keeps his eyes off his power metre and stem long enough not to crash..i think he'll win!

MPFG · 05-06-2015 8:02pm

The reason I think Contador will be 5th/6th is because he will only accept 1st or broke....so he will go all out & lose time trying to win

Otherwise he would be 2nd (or 3rd)

D9Male · 05-06-2015 8:15pm

pelevin wrote: »

I know they've tried to change the make-up of the Points jersey this year to prevent it being a foregone conclusion for Sagan, especially boosting the points for stage winners. Given the incredible year Kristoff's had, & by contrast despite Tour of California, the disappointing year for Sagan, I'd have thought Kristoff could be in with a real shout of that, and much better than the bookies odds reflect. He's still nothing like the climber Sagan can be though so we'll see how that reflects.

In terms of the overall, I'd see it as total guesswork in terms of who'll win. I'd like to see Nibali do a great Tour though Froome & Quintana should be certainly the outright favourites, & Contador surely up against it.

Interesting. Problem is the profiles suit Sagan more than Kristoff, with so many uphill finishes. In fact, I think Valverde would be a bet if they bet each way on green. He'll surely be 33/1 or more and so few stages will mean Cav and Kittel are out of contention.

D9Male · 05-06-2015 8:16pm

Less cobbles this year, and unless the weather is just as bad, I can't see big time gaps between GC contenders.

ROK ON · 05-06-2015 8:24pm

In extreme conditions (very hot or very cold) then Nibali will win.
Froome will have strongest team and will be fresh and motivated - hope to see Deignan there as pound for poundage is among the best climbing domestiques on long steep climbs.
Quintana will win eventually but this year will have to contend with Valverde, and that particular dude rides for no one but himself.
Bertie had a disappointing team but he has rarely needed a team. He will animate the tour but i find it tough to believe thatbthentour and giro is doable. Maybe the giro Vuelta given the gap and the ability to re-peak.
With Purito, Peraud, Teejay, Roland, Yates, Talansky et al it promises to be lively.

MPFG · 05-06-2015 8:47pm

ROK ON wrote: »

hope to see Deignan there as pound for poundage is among the best climbing domestiques on long steep climbs.

I agree totally ...he did a fantastic job at the Vuelata for Froome last year ...last man standing on long climbs in last week with only the top 5 remaining
(he is about 7 /8 kilos lighter than Nico)

But SKY have so many to choose from however he has a good chance given Nieve wasn't great at the Giro, Poles & Kennaugh are back from injury and I am not convinced Koing is domestique material

Brian? · 05-06-2015 9:19pm

Nairo Quintana

MPFG wrote: »

The reason I think Contador will be 5th/6th is because he will only accept 1st or broke....so he will go all out & lose time trying to win

Otherwise he would be 2nd (or 3rd)

It'll be 2013 all over again, I agree.

Tour de France 2015 thread Please use spoiler tags before midnight

Who will win the GC? 82 votes

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Tour de France 2015 thread **Please use spoiler tags before midnight**

Who will win the GC? 82 votes

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Tour de France 2015 thread Please use spoiler tags before midnight