Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

road_high · 31-01-2016 4:18pm #1

Another big field in the constituency.
FG- Phelan, Deering, Fitzgerald
Lab- Ann Phelan
SF- Funchion
FF- McGuinness, Alyward, Murnane OConnor
AAA- Wallace
Renua- McKee
Conor MacLiam of PBP-AAA
Malcolm Noonan of GP/Green Party
Also
Paddy Manning Ind./NP
Noel Walsh Ind./NP

I'm not sure of any of the others, maybe someone else can add them?

I think it'll go 2 FG, 2 FF with a dog fight for the last one between SF, Labour and possibly FG.
I can't see Renua going anywhere, it's a dead duck.

Thanks to Nokia 6230i for filling in some of the other candidates for me.

Cabaal · 31-01-2016 6:49pm

Theres also identity Ireland I believe, they appear to have links to this new questionable and hate filled party

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/anti-islamic-group-pegida-ireland-to-be-launched-at-dublin-rally-1.2515875

I'd tend to agree with you in relation to FG/FF and then fight between SF/Labour. The usual suspects will win for the likes of FF (McGuinness, Alyward). People need to remember that FF did basically no campaigning in Kilkenny for marriage equality, in general they didn't really support the campaign other then claiming they were for a yes vote....there's a good reason why Power left them to be fair.

I also don't see Renua getting anywhere, their policy's are just ill thought out and I couldn't in good conscious vote for any party with a leader like creighton. From what I understand their runner in Kilkenny (McKee) was in FF but was effectively pushed out by the usual bunch in the party. So it seems he's just more interested in a political career rather then anything else.

road_high · 31-01-2016 7:53pm

Really hope Ann Phelan can see off SF.
She's streets ahead of Funchion in terms of ability and experience. She is a deeply underwhelming candidate and a total waste of space to send to the Dail. Que onslaught from Shinnerbots, but that's exactly how it is.

McKee is an opportunist but he's been wrong footed on this one. Hope for his own sake he's not burning his own cash on this. He had a prime chance in 2014/15 when dissatisfaction with the govt was at its zenith and he still couldn't get a seat and got a reasonable, but way off a seat vote.

Nokia6230i · 31-01-2016 8:06pm

Cabaal wrote: »

Theres also identity Ireland I believe, they appear to have links to this new questionable and hate filled party

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/anti-islamic-group-pegida-ireland-to-be-launched-at-dublin-rally-1.2515875

I'd tend to agree with you in relation to FG/FF and then fight between SF/Labour. The usual suspects will win for the likes of FF (McGuinness, Alyward). People need to remember that FF did basically no campaigning in Kilkenny for marriage equality, in general they didn't really support the campaign other then claiming they were for a yes vote....there's a good reason why Power left them to be fair.

I also don't see Renua getting anywhere, their policy's are just ill thought out and I couldn't in good conscious vote for any party with a leader like creighton. From what I understand their runner in Kilkenny (McKee) was in FF but was effectively pushed out by the usual bunch in the party. So it seems he's just more interested in a political career rather then anything else.

PO'L of II (an unregistered party) ran in the bye-election; he's not running here this time round thankfully; embarrassingly he Polled 930 1st Preference Votes in May 15.

Think this time round he's running in Cork North Central but unless the "Party" register it'll be under the Ind./NP Banner on the Ballot Paper.

road_high · 31-01-2016 8:08pm

Oloughlin was based in Carlow town last time. He was an unemployed school teacher if I recall correctly? Must have gotten a job down in cork perhaps...

Nokia6230i · 31-01-2016 8:11pm

road_high wrote: »

Really hope Ann Phelan can see off SF.
She's streets ahead of Funchion in terms of ability and experience. She is a deeply underwhelming candidate and a total waste of space to send to the Dail. Que onslaught from Shinnerbots, but that's exactly how it is.

McKee is an opportunist but he's been wrong footed on this one. Hope for his own sake he's not burning his own cash on this. He had a prime chance on 2014 when dissatisfaction with the govt was at its zenith and he still couldn't get a seat and got a reasonable, but way off a seat vote.

Think you're right; surely after having a 2nd Tilt at it having finished 5th or 6th (?) in the Bye-Election in May he'll throw that hat at it & walk away if he doesn't A), Poll better this time round and/or

, Get in even if it's on the 5th Seat?

He was the Golden Boy of Renua; their Guinea Pig & after dipping their toes in the water in May there's serious pressure on him this time round since they would've perceived a demand last time round.

Nokia6230i · 31-01-2016 8:12pm

road_high wrote: »

Oloughlin was based in Carlow town last time. He was an unemployed school teacher if I recall correctly? Must have gotten a job down in cork perhaps...

Or simply, hopefully still be an unemployed teacher in Cork?

No loss that he's not running in this constituency this time round.

Can't say I'd like him teaching my kids in National or Primary School!

road_high · 31-01-2016 8:25pm

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Or simply, hopefully still be an unemployed teacher in Cork?

No loss that he's not running in this constituency this time round.

Can't say I'd like him teaching my kids in National or Primary School!

Never knew a lot about him to be honest. Cork city would be a bit more radical voting wise (left wing that is) but still can't see him getting near a seat.

road_high · 31-01-2016 9:23pm

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Think you're right; surely after having a 2nd Tilt at it having finished 5th or 6th (?) in the Bye-Election in May he'll throw that hat at it & walk away if he doesn't A), Poll better this time round and/or , Get in even if it's on the 5th Seat?

He was the Golden Boy of Renua; their Guinea Pig & after dipping their toes in the water in May there's serious pressure on him this time round since they would've perceived a demand last time round.

I can see him doing a lot worse this time.
Sue Nunn used have him on regularly but she's not on air these days, plus it was a fresh novelty back then.
Now the hard questions are being asked of Renua and for me as a voter there's absolutely nothing there but a risk of instability. FG have firmly taken away any economic angle they thought they might have had.

catbear · 31-01-2016 10:44pm

Cabaal wrote: »

People need to remember that FF did basically no campaigning in Kilkenny for marriage equality, in general they didn't really support the campaign other then claiming they were for a yes vote.....

Actually people need to be reminded that FF weren't actually united on the vote, McGuinness is one of the few TDs nationally to actively came out for a No vote.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/john-mcguinness-says-he-will-vote-no-in-marriage-referendum-1.2217553

As usual I'll be voting in ascending order starting with my least preferable first and my No1 being ticked last. It's a good contest for the bottom of the barrel between the No voters Manning and McGuinness; can't decide which one I find most slippery.

I'll give Noel Walsh a boost over Greens, AAA and Renua and this year for the first time ever in my life I'll be putting SF over FF.

Fainna Fail, male, stale and beyond the Pale.

DerryRed · 01-02-2016 8:41am

Can't see Labour getting the final seat. They are going to get wiped out across the country.

Cabaal · 01-02-2016 9:41am

catbear wrote: »

Actually people need to be reminded that FF weren't actually united on the vote, McGuinness is one of the few TDs nationally to actively came out for a No vote.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/john-mcguinness-says-he-will-vote-no-in-marriage-referendum-1.2217553

Indeed, I did remember reading somewhere that he was against marriage equality, utterly pathetic really.

McGuinness only cares about one thing...McGuinness! He uses FF to his own benefit but does what he wants and FF are worse for putting up with the likes of him. He basically acts like he's an Independent.

On the marriage equality vote unfortunately for him he made a very poor decision, he voted against something which many people in the country see as a defining moment. He'd rather keep a small group of backward people vote for him then move this country into the future.

His chosen company for the no vote may also create a window into the type of mindset he keeps as they include Independent TDs Mattie McGrath and Michael Healy-Rae, and Senators Fidelma Healy-Eames, Ronán Mullen, Feargal Quinn and Jim Walsh. For example Jim Walsh as a fellow FF'er and he regularly makes bigoted statements against gay people,

DerryRed · 01-02-2016 10:17am

Cabaal wrote: »

Indeed, I did remember reading somewhere that he was against marriage equality, utterly pathetic really.

McGuinness only cares about one thing...McGuinness! He uses FF to his own benefit but does what he wants and FF are worse for putting up with the likes of him. He basically acts like he's an Independent.

On the marriage equality vote unfortunately for him he made a very poor decision, he voted against something which many people in the country see as a defining moment. He'd rather keep a small group of backward people vote for him then move this country into the future.

His chosen company for the no vote may also create a window into the type of mindset he keeps as they include Independent TDs Mattie McGrath and Michael Healy-Rae, and Senators Fidelma Healy-Eames, Ronán Mullen, Feargal Quinn and Jim Walsh. For example Jim Walsh as a fellow FF'er and he regularly makes bigoted statements against gay people,

I can't see his stance in the Referendum having any bearing, as unfortunately quite a large number of people who voted in it will not bother to vote in the General Election.

road_high · 01-02-2016 10:45am

DerryRed wrote: »

I can't see his stance in the Referendum having any bearing, as unfortunately quite a large number of people who voted in it will not bother to vote in the General Election.

John McGuiness will likely top the poll. Having done nothing for the constituency ever, he does keep well in with his constituents by playing up the "ordinary man act" which goes downs well with the working/welfare classes which are his core vote.

I wouldn't write off Ann Phelan at all. She's had a high profile of late and had some very positive headlines (such as helping secure €19 million for Thomastown hospital)- someone please point out where John McGuiness has done anything similar especially when FF were in power he was a major hindrance to Kilkenny. But the masses were too stupid to see it.
Plus Labour have been edging up nationally, I hope she makes it back in as she deserves to.

Sky King · 01-02-2016 11:31am

PP Odds:

Cabaal · 01-02-2016 11:48am

DerryRed wrote: »

I can't see his stance in the Referendum having any bearing, as unfortunately quite a large number of people who voted in it will not bother to vote in the General Election.

Sadly you're likely correct he will be voted in yet again and the political family will continue....and once he retires the son will step in. No doubt he can then claim some nice expenses like the overtime he claimed...or maybe a nice trip to Seattle with his partner for 22k like his dad did?

road_high · 01-02-2016 12:21pm

McGuiness spends a fortune getting elected too, once the posters etc go up the place will be plastered with him.

Captain Havoc · 01-02-2016 12:38pm

That's a poor selection, the only reason I'll be voting is to vote against Sinn Fein.

road_high · 01-02-2016 12:53pm

Captain Havoc wrote: »

That's a poor selection, the only reason I'll be voting is to vote against Sinn Fein.

That's as good a reason as any...I reckon John Paul Phelan is an excellent politician, just hasn't been given any glory under Enda Kenny as he didn't support him in the heave.

Cabaal · 01-02-2016 1:36pm

Can't remember his name, but does anyone know if the chap who was running last time claiming he'd bring ikea to Kilkenny is running again? Frankly his leaflet seems like just random ramblings about everything and anything, but it was slightly amusing to read at the time.

[EDIT]

After a search of the forum I see its Noel Walsh, how is anyone voting for him after his leaflet lasttime?

road_high · 01-02-2016 1:52pm

Jasus he is special...he seems pro marriage equality which makes him more progressive than all of FF combined!

catbear · 01-02-2016 2:11pm

I'd put Noel Walsh above AAA, Renua, the Greens, McGuinness, or Manning any day.

Anyway I agree with the others who think McGuinness is probably a safe seat regardless of his personal morality. He's rooted in his community and the gambit would be that if needed he could dump FF to make up numbers in a broad coalition and deliver for his voters in a Healy Rae way.

However seeing the state of Lowry's Thurles I don't believe this strategy is always fruitful.

road_high · 01-02-2016 2:45pm

catbear wrote: »

I'd put Noel Walsh above AAA, Renua, the Greens, McGuinness, or Manning any day.

Anyway I agree with the others who think McGuinness is probably a safe seat regardless of his personal morality. He's rooted in his community and the gambit would be that if needed he could dump FF to make up numbers in a broad coalition and deliver for his voters in a Healy Rae way.

However seeing the state of Lowry's Thurles I don't believe this strategy is always fruitful.

Indeed, there's a town that has declined rapidly. Though I'm not sure it's just the politics, it's had lots of advantages handed to it through the years and capitalised very little on any of them.
Back to our own, Carlow town has had it's difficulties through the recession but hopefully better things ahead. I know Murnane O'Connor will pushing the Carlow town card.

Nokia6230i · 01-02-2016 3:44pm

Cabaal wrote: »

Can't remember his name, but does anyone know if the chap who was running last time claiming he'd bring ikea to Kilkenny is running again? Frankly his leaflet seems like just random ramblings about everything and anything, but it was slightly amusing to read at the time.

[EDIT]

After a search of the forum I see its Noel Walsh, how is anyone voting for him after his leaflet lasttime?

Yep, Noel Walsh is running (see OP).

Being backed heavily by the Druid himself so no surprise/s there.

He's at 100/1 for a reason......

road_high · 01-02-2016 3:55pm

Nokia6230i wrote: »

Yep, Noel Walsh is running (see OP).

Being backed heavily by the Druid himself so no surprise/s there.

He's at 100/1 for a reason......

He's clearly never heard of Punctuation, bless him...

fits · 01-02-2016 4:29pm

An embarrassing selection. Eighth amendment is the red line issue for me. So i cant vote FF or FG as all candidates are against repeal. Cant vote SF either. Ann gets it by process of elimination.

catbear · 01-02-2016 4:37pm

road_high wrote: »

Indeed, there's a town that has declined rapidly. Though I'm not sure it's just the politics, it's had lots of advantages handed to it through the years and capitalised very little on any of them.

I believe that back in the 50/60s Thurles was a boomtown with Erin Foods employing hundreds if not thousands through smaller businesses supplying it. They never really came back from that and turned their nose up to anything less and now they have little. TRBI is good though.

Saw a few recycled AAA posters up already. Hopefully Enda will pull the trigger tomorrow and we can get through this election over quickly. Feckin sick of the sight of posters after last May. It's actually a great time of year for elections, no much else happens during Feb.

road_high · 01-02-2016 5:07pm

fits wrote: »

An embarrassing selection. Eighth amendment is the red line issue for me. So i cant vote FF or FG as all candidates are against repeal. Cant vote SF either. Ann gets it by process of elimination.

Pretty sure David Fitzgerald FG is pro repeal. Not sure about JP Phelan or Pat Deering, might be more luke warm I'd reckon.
FF will definitely be anti though, as they are with any social issue- stuck in the dark ages.
Ann is a very able politician and a lovely, amenable lady as well- she's a surprise for me and has worked very hard and smartly for the constituency- I think she's well worth a no 1.

road_high · 01-02-2016 5:11pm

catbear wrote: »

Saw a few recycled AAA posters up already. Hopefully Enda will pull the trigger tomorrow and we can get through this election over quickly. Feckin sick of the sight of posters after last May. It's actually a great time of year for elections, no much else happens during Feb.

Indeed me too, sick of listening to all those welfare junky idiots droning on about homelessness etc- there's no one lining up to dole a free house to me or anyone I know.
I'm voting back the current govt all the way here, as the country has made a lot of progress under them and I want that to continue. I see no need or point whatsoever in voting otherwise.
Not decided which candidates yet, but I'm voting FG and Labour 1-4 then leaving the polling station.

catbear · 01-02-2016 6:48pm

I know it's devilment of me to say it but in ways I believe a FG/FF coalition could be the best thing ever to happen for Labour because then for the first time in the states modern history we'll have a centre left opposition.

FG/L getting back in together will only give us an opposition of increasingly incontinent FF, the loony left and the left over.

At least with a FG led government, FF can be kept away from the sweet jar. On the last stint in government they went to the cookie jar too much and developed terminal diabetes.

Nokia6230i · 01-02-2016 8:57pm

road_high wrote: »

Pretty sure David Fitzgerald FG is pro repeal. Not sure about JP Phelan or Pat Deering, might be more luke warm I'd reckon.
FF will definitely be anti though, as they are with any social issue- stuck in the dark ages.
Ann is a very able politician and a lovely, amenable lady as well- she's a surprise for me and has worked very hard and smartly for the constituency- I think she's well worth a no 1.

Don't think JP is even lukewarm at all; admittedly it's taken from the Druids Bile but he appears to be Pro-Life/Anti-Choice.

Think Pat'd be Pro-Choice but mightn't be shouting it from the rooftops in run up to the GE.

Carlow Kilkenny General Election 2016

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