Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Tuesday, 24 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... frequent rain (10-15 mm) for Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht, north Leinster, some improvement towards late afternoon, temperatures steady 7-9 C and winds westerly 50-70 km/hr ... other regions further south will become partly cloudy with occasional passing showers (2-5 mm), also in westerly winds 40-60 km/hr, and highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers becoming quite brief and isolated, winds west to northwest about 50 km/hr, lows 4-6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild and breezy (WNW backing to WSW 50-70 km/hr) with highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, windy, rain at times although long dry intervals in south. Lows 5-8 C and highs 11-13 C. It may even reach 14 or 15 C in parts of the inland south, very mild for late November, in southwest winds 50-70 km/hr. Rain could become heavy later in the day in the northwest, 15-25 mm potential, but much smaller amounts are likely elsewhere.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder about mid-day, morning rain turning to sleet or mixed wintry showers in north, rain or hail showers elsewhere. ... Lows 5-9 C then temperatures near 11 or 12 C mid-day then falling steadily in westerly winds 70-100 km/hr. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm, may reach 20 mm in parts of north. Around this time some renewed flooding is possible in Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and nearby locations.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, a bit cooler with highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY (1st Dec) will be quite a mild spell again with highs reaching the 11-13 C range in moderate southwest winds, rain coming and going mostly across northern regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for continued rather mild weather although closer to seasonal averages (7-10 C) for as far as the maps go into December although there are hints of a bit more continental influence by about the 10th with the storm track beginning to run into resistance from European high pressure. This may start off with mild southeasterlies but it's a pattern that could briefly turn colder. However if that happens I don't think it will dig in too long before a milder turn in the holiday period. That's when I believe stormy conditions could develop too, at some point, not to say it would dominate the whole holiday week to two weeks.

Not entirely unrelated, there's a full Moon on Christmas Day this year.

The coming two week weather pattern for BRITAIN will be pretty much the same as for Ireland now that colder air has been flushed out of southern England.

Across NORTH AMERICA the week to come looks rather mild in general (highs on the east coast rising to 15 C through the week), except in the far west and central Canada which will have a modified cold pattern with some snow at times inland, rain just for the rest of tonight on the west coast followed by cold sunshine. My local weather on Monday had the expected sleety rain and a chilly high of 5 C. Expecting to find fresh snow on local hills in the morning and maybe some melting flakes here too but it won't last.

If you read this far, I want to use the "thanks" function to get some specific feedback this week. Each day I will suggest a different reason to press the thanks button, or decline -- it will help me get some feedback on how to proceed this winter. First question, do you find enough regional detail in the forecasts, or would you like more? If you find enough, press thanks, and if not, don't, I will ask those readers to thank the post tomorrow.

(no need to post answers, I am more interested in the overall percentage than any individual feedback on these questions -- and thank you for visiting !!)

Thursday, 26 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few afternoon sunny breaks, breezy, with slight amounts of rain at times in north, mostly, and long dry intervals in south with highs 11-14 C in southwest winds 50-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain could become heavy overnight especially towards sunrise in the northwest, with 15-25 mm potential there, but much smaller amounts are likely elsewhere. Very mild and windy (S-SW 50-80 km/hr) with lows 10-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning colder about mid-day, morning rain, heavy at times (possible thunder) turning showery in south and possibly to sleet or mixed wintry showers in north by afternoon and evening ... morning temperatures near 11 or 12 C mid-day but falling steadily through afternoon and evening in westerly winds 70-100 km/hr. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm, may reach 20 mm in parts of north. Around this time some renewed flooding is possible in Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim and nearby locations.

SATURDAY ... Windy (WSW 50-80 km/hr), showers starting off rather sleety in north, morning lows 2-4 C and highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Milder with periods of rain becoming heavy in northern then central counties (10-20 mm), highs near 11 C.

MONDAY ... Very mild, rain covering most of the south during the morning then partial clearing, highs 12-13 C but temperatures falling a few degrees in the afternoon and evening with a windshift from southwest to northwest, after which the stronger winds will become light and variable overnight.

TUESDAY ... Becoming very windy again with rain and temperatures peaking around 12 or 13 C.

WEDNESDAY (2nd Dec) will continue mild and windy with intervals of rain but may turn a bit colder late in the day, highs near 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The mild regime currently appears locked in for a while with the occasional very brief colder spell such as late Friday and early Saturday may produce ... winds will be generally southwest much of the time ... the latest GFS guidance shows a strong wind event at the end of its run on 12 December -- this should be taken as an indication that the gradient may begin to get more stormy through December.

The trend for the next two weeks in BRITAIN will be similar, Friday's colder turn will arrive overnight and will have rather limited effect on southern England.

Today is the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., the weather is likely to be settled in most regions with temperatures a few degrees above normal in the east, a little rain at times in the Midwest, and colder air flooding south into the Rockies and over parts of the far west. Some snow may develop around Denver. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cold with a sharp morning frost, low of -4 C and high near 4 C.

Continuing on with the feedback thanks ... today, if you want to communicate that there is not enough regional detail for your interests, please thank this post. I won't be polling for too much regional detail because I don't think the forecasts can have much less on most days.

Saturday, 28 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy especially near Atlantic coasts, passing showers or periods of rain (5-10 mm), winds WSW 60-90 km/hr with higher gusts in coastal areas. Temperatures will moderate enough that most of the passing showers will be rain or hail, but snow is possible on higher summits, with highs 5-8 C.

TONIGHT ... Blustery and turning milder with temperatures steady or rising slowly to about 8-10 C by sunrise. Scattered outbreaks of light rain but heavier in counties near Donegal Bay.

SUNDAY ... Milder with occasional light rain (2-5 mm) except moderate falls in parts of the northwest where 20 mm possible, moderate southwest winds, highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... Very mild, pulses of heavy rain (15-30 mm with heaviest amounts in Donegal and Mayo) and moderate southwest winds veering more to westerly at 50-80 km/hr except for light to moderate southeast winds in Ulster, lows near 10 C and highs near 13 C for the south, but with brief clearing in the early morning, some parts of Ulster and north Leinster may start out colder (2-5 C) with the milder air either held off to the south or arriving later in the evening.

TUESDAY (1 Dec) ... Continued very mild and becoming windy (S-SW 70-110 km/hr) during the afternoon and evening, about 15-25 mm rain, highs 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mild at first, showers of rain or hail, turning colder during the afternoon or evening, temperatures steady 8-10 C then falling to 2-5 C, snow may fall briefly on northern hills.

THURSDAY ... Clearing with moderate southwest winds, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder again by the weekend in a southwest flow.

My local weather on Friday was sunny after a sharp morning frost, low of -5 C and high of about 7 C. We are in this sort of pattern for the weekend with a slow increase in cloud early next week and rain mid-week as the weather over most of North America is dominated by sprawling high pressure covering most of the U.S. and a mild westerly flow in most of Canada. The "El Nino" look is increasing which probably means there will be a strong to severe windstorm event from the Atlantic to Ireland and Britain at some point in mid to late December.

Monday, 30 November, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls and flooding risks in western counties mainly from north Kerry to south Galway today, tomorrow and early Wednesday, 50-75 mm may fall in total over the period. Also, ALERT for strong winds late Tuesday, south to southwest 80-120 km/hr, in Atlantic coastal counties, and some parts of south coast.

TODAY ... Very mild for much of the day in the south with southwest winds that may become quite gusty on Cork and Waterford coasts (60-100 km/hr) but more moderate inland, highs 12 or 13 C ... further north, rain will become heavy for a few hours and 15-25 mm may fall; in that zone the highs will reach about 10-12 C at mid-day with a slight drop later. In northern counties from north Connacht to all of Ulster, rain could be sleety on hills but much lighter near the north coasts, and temperatures will only rise to about 5 or 6 C due to east winds followed by a northerly breeze then turning more southeast by late in the day after low pressure tracks across Ireland by mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Foggy in many areas with rainfall becoming heavy again near Atlantic coasts, a further 15-25 mm likely, 5-15 mm south and east. Lows 8-10 C in south and west, temperatures rising to those levels elsewhere.

TUESDAY ... Early morning heavy rainfall will resume, and will then move away to the north followed by partly cloudy skies, with strong south to southwest winds 80-120 km/hr by late afternoon and evening on the west coast, and quite mild all day with temperatures steady and very mild at 10-13 C. About 15-30 mm rain could fall in parts of the west, 5-15 mm east.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers, turning colder through the day, temperatures starting out near 10 C falling to 3-5 C by afternoon and evening, rain could turn to sleet or snow on hills late evening and overnight into Thursday morning. Strong southerly winds early will moderate during the mid-day hours.

THURSDAY ... Morning rain may linger in south (sleet or snow on some southern hills) with gradual clearing across north. Lows 1-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Very windy and mild, potential for gusts over 110 km/hr in south to southwest winds, highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Briefly colder around Saturday (7-9 C) but back to very mild southwest winds, highs 11-12 C, for several days towards the mid-month period. There are some indications of a colder turn after the 13th but too early to place much confidence in that yet.

The main difference for Britain will be that most of southern England will stay mild to mid-day Thursday, but otherwise a similar picture to the above. Today's thermal divide will show up across central Britain too, and snow could fall on northern hills while southern England warms to 13-14 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and cold with a sharp frost and highs reaching 6 C.

Wednesday, 2 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for very strong southwest winds on Friday with gusts reaching at least 130 km/hr in exposed parts of western counties, 120 km/hr later in east and south.


TODAY ... Intervals of rain will continue across parts of the south and east but will gradually taper off to drizzle with a slow clearing trend spreading in from the northwest around mid-day. The strong southwest winds this morning will continue to moderate and will be only 30-50 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs will be close to current temperatures for most, 8-10 C in the northwest, to 11 or 12 C south and east. About 5-10 mm further rainfall is likely for most of Leinster and east Munster.

TONIGHT ... Cloud will linger across the east and south, with occasional drizzle after midnight, turning to rain on the south coast around sunrise. Lows in this part of the country will be 4-7 C. Further west and north, partial clearing will allow temperatures to drop to 1-3 C with isolated ground frost in parts of Connacht.

THURSDAY ... Latest guidance shows an area of rain likely to spread across the south and into east coast counties, but it should remain dry from about north Kerry to Connacht and in parts of central Ireland as well as most of Ulster. Where the rain spreads in, expect 5-10 mm and temperatures near 7 or 8 C in moderate east to northeast winds. In dry areas, with veiled sunshine through higher cloud layers, highs will perhaps reach 9 C and winds will be light and variable.

FRIDAY ... Temperatures will start to recover during the early morning hours with a developing southwesterly flow, so that lows will be 3-5 C but sunrise temperatures could be 8-10 C in the west. The day will become increasingly windy and there may be gale or storm force gusts on the west coast by afternoon, in southwest winds 80-130 km/hr. Occasional rain will develop but falls will be rather moderate this time, 5-10 mm.

FRIDAY NIGHT into SATURDAY ... Continued very windy but the strongest winds will shift south and east across the rest of the country while moderating on the Atlantic coasts especially north of the Shannon estuary. It will continue windy and mild with occasional rain for the south and east, winds southwest at 80-110 km/hr, temperatures steady 10-12 C. Further north, variable skies and occasional showers with less windy conditions expected, temperatures steady in the 7-9 C range.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will continue breezy to windy and mild with further outbreaks of light rain, temperatures well above normal at 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is somewhat uncertain with conflicting guidance, some suggesting further mild and windy conditions, while other maps depict slightly colder conditions (near average highs of 7-9 C) and somewhat more settled for part of the week. There are then indications of very windy weather returning around mid-month followed by a modified blast of colder air from a source region in Greenland but with considerable ocean modification, this would not be overly wintry with highs 5-7 C (this seems to be the tabloid cold wave of modern times). At this point I don't foresee anything disruptive from cold or snow but the wind potential at some point between 12th and 16th is more of concern.

The above scenario will play out in most parts of Britain but the present mild spell will continue unbroken in southern England to late Thursday as the low expected to cross Ireland then will hold back the fronts around north Wales to Yorkshire.

North America continues to see widespread rather mild weather conditions with some rain on both coasts now, which has finally broken down the long spell of dry, frosty weather here, Tuesday became wet and drizzly with a high near 7 C at my location.

Friday, 4 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERTS for strong winds and heavy rainfalls with most severe conditions in west coastal counties, peak gusts around 130 km/hr and some rainfalls reaching 75-150 mm on hills, with risk of severe flooding, near higher terrain (valid from 3 p.m. Friday to 6 a.m. Sunday)


TODAY ... Turning more cloudy in rising southwest winds, then becoming rather windy in most regions but very windy near Atlantic coasts by afternoon, mostly dry until a band of rain sweeps in during the late afternoon or early evening in Connacht and west Munster. The southerly gales may reach storm force both at sea and on exposed western coasts, 80-130 km/hr with some spells near 140 km/hr over the near Atlantic marine areas. Highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT into SATURDAY will remain very windy in most areas, but severe gusts are most likely near southwest coasts and over the Irish Sea, where they might reach 120 km/hr, for most inland areas 60-100 km/hr will be the typical range, and it will remain very mild at 11-13 C. Some rain at times for most places, isolated heavy rain on western hills (20-40 mm locally but 5-15 mm more widespread). Localized flooding is very likely to develop from swollen streams that drain higher ground in areas such as Kerry, northwest Limerick, Clare and Connemara into western Mayo, also central Donegal.

SATURDAY NIGHT this rain will tend to become heavier in central and eastern regions for a time while slowly easing in the west, but winds will continue rather strong for all regions (SW 70-110 km/hr), with temperatures holding near 10 C until falling off late in the overnight period over western counties to around 6 C.

SUNDAY will see partial clearing with diminishing westerly winds becoming slack for a time then southeasterly by afternoon into the evening, with temperatures steady in the range of 7-9 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY will become windy again (SSE 70-110 km/hr) with periods of rain, 25-50 mm likely, renewed flood risks in western counties and temperatures steady in the 10-12 C range.

TUESDAY will continue very blustery with rain tapering off to showers in southwesterly winds 70-110 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY may see a brief dry interval with slightly cooler temperatures then THURSDAY and FRIDAY will become stormy again with heavy rain potential and strong winds. Highs will reach 10 or 11 C each day.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is quite uncertain given the spread in the guidance and signals for colder and very unsettled conditions, I would lean towards a continuation of the stormy trends with perhaps a larger range in temperatures from day to day. This is where we are facing quite a potential battle between mild air driven in from the southwest by a strong jet stream and the colder air finding easy passage south across the colder than normal central Atlantic. The results of this clash are bound to produce stormy conditions at times.

The above scenario would tend to apply to Scotland, northwest England and parts of Wales especially with the strong winds and heavy rainfalls, whereas southern and central England may be somewhat less stormy and even milder at times (13-15 C), through the period.

My local weather on Thursday turned very mild after some heavy bursts of rainfall and the high reached 14 C, then it became rather windy with peak gusts of about 80 km/hr, just some minor tree damage as a result with scattered power outages.

Sunday, 6 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for renewed strong winds and heavy rainfalls valid 9 p.m. Sunday to 6 a.m. Tuesday, peak gusts to 110 km/hr in west, 90 km/hr east. About 20-30 mm rain in west, 10-20 mm east, will maintain or even renew some flooding in western and central counties if it manages to ease during today's dry interval.


TODAY ... A welcome break from the wind and rain for at least half a day ... fairly soon any rain or gusty winds will end in eastern counties and all regions will have some brighter intervals in moderate westerly winds that will go rather slack at mid-day then turn quickly to the southeast, although still not very strong for the afternoon. Highs 7-10 C in most areas, 5-7 C inland north.

TONIGHT into MONDAY ... Strong southerly winds will quickly develop with rain spreading across western counties, peak gusts will be in south Kerry and west Cork (possibly reaching 120 km/hr there), and more generally 110 km/hr in western counties, 90 km/hr east. The rain will clear for a time then redevelop and spread further east during Monday. Amounts will be 20-30 mm west, 10-20 mm east. Some flooding could redevelop in west, assuming that there is any improvement later today, or if not, this will just hold flood levels in place for some further time. Temperatures will be steady 9-11 C overnight and 11-13 C Monday.

TUESDAY ... Becoming more showery, winds continued very strong and veering to southwest 80-120 km/hr, some severe gusts possible. Temperatures steady 8-10 C will fall off slightly late in the day. About 5-10 mm further rainfall will not be enough to maintain high flood levels so despite that rain things may improve slowly.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild, winds WSW 70-110 km/hr in exposed locations, severe gusts possible at times, a few showers but dry intervals in east. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy or very windy and turning a bit colder with showers, winds westerly 60-100 km/hr, morning lows near 4 C and afternoon highs about 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and colder, some passing showers may become wintry, highs 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... A frosty start, some sunshine possible, but outlook rather uncertain with guidance becoming very scattered around this time, some risk of sleet or a cold rain developing if low pressure pushes in close enough from south. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some guidance suggests a colder interval, but there seems at least the same possibility if not greater that the weather will gradually turn rather mild again in strong southerly winds and rain. I should underline the fact that the guidance has been all over the place for this mid-month period and may not settle in on the right solution for a day or two yet.

Early thoughts about the Christmas holiday period -- I have the feeling that it will become very windy again with at least some rainfall, let's hope it isn't too severe but with the large-scale set-up being the way it is, more severe storms are quite likely. Prolonged cold may come eventually but I think there will be several false starts (and no doubt millions of newspapers sold) before the real deal which I am expecting to be later January or early February.

In BRITAIN, the windy and showery weather will continue much of the morning before the clearing trend reaches them. Severe flooding will affect road travel in parts of northern England and southwest Scotland.

By contrast, the weather is quite bland across much of North America at the present time, although it was quite windy and wet in my location on the west coast on Saturday, around 50 mm of rain and strong wind gusts, sound familiar? High of about 10 C.

Tuesday, 8 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and turning slightly colder this afternoon with frequent showers in west (5-15 mm), occasional showers for east (2-5 mm). Winds south veering southwest 60-90 km/hr, risk of more severe gusts in parts of northwest. Highs 9-11 C will occur relatively early, as temperatures fall off to about 7 C this afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and rather cold but temperatures recovering after midnight in southwest winds 50-80 km/hr, lows 3-5 C but closer to 10 C by morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and mild with occasional rain (10-20 mm), but also some dry intervals, in southwest winds 70-110 km/hr. Highs 9-12 C. Steady rain by evening lasting through part of the night into Thursday morning.

THURSDAY ... Windy and turning colder in stages, early rain then scattered showers which may become rather wintry over higher parts of the north, winds southwest to west 70-110 km/hr, morning lows 5-7 C and highs 7-9 C but temperatures falling off to 3-5 C by afternoon.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cold. Some frost possible inland, lows -1 to +3 C, highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Periods of rain, milder again, temperatures rising to about 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy, partly cloudy with a few showers, highs near 9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mostly milder than average again next week, highs mainly in the 10-12 C range, occasional rain. We are seeing charts extending almost to Christmas Day now, and little change in this pattern all the way, with some signs of a stormier period developing around the holiday week.

This will be fairly similar to the weather pattern across most of Britain too.

Over most of North America, the coming week looks very mild, highs will be as much as 10 degrees above normal in some areas, reaching 15-20 C on the east coast. The El Nino pattern is really "raging" at this point with strong fronts hitting the west coast in rapid succession. Our local weather on Monday was overcast with a bit of light rain (heavier to our south), highs near 10 C. We are expecting heavier rain and strong winds most of this week.

Wednesday, 9 December, 2015 _ 7 p.m.

ALERT for ACTIVE SQUALL LINE CONDITIONS GREATER DUBLIN 7:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.

ADVANCE ALERT for WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN (Munster, south Connacht, south Leinster)


For the greater Dublin region, be alert for strong wind gusts, briefly torrential rainfall and possible hail and thunder, as a squall line approaches next few minutes to half hour and moves through the region including some parts of Wicklow and Kildare, south to east Meath and all of Dublin. Road travel may become briefly hazardous especially for cyclists and high-sided vehicles.

Along with the regulars on the weather forum, I am closely watching developments as slow-moving low pressure to the southwest appears likely to force a nearly stationary band of moderate to heavy rainfall to linger for at least three days (Saturday to Monday) over Munster, Galway and south Leinster. Some guidance shows 100-150 mm rainfall potential in this period which would no doubt worsen the flood risk in already badly affected areas. At least 50-75 mm rainfall by Monday seems a safe bet in these outlined regions but it could be more.


Some guidance shows the heavier rain moving further north for a time but at this point, I am not as fully concerned for heavy rain potential for north Connacht and central Leinster, yet at least. An early estimate for those regions would be 15-30 mm but trending towards 30-50 mm near Dublin. Ulster may remain largely outside the rainfall zone unless there is a significant northward shift.

I hope we might have some better news by the morning forecast update, but I am not optimistic seeing how much agreement there is for this potential. As the new moon occurs later this week, tides will be running high and although strong winds seem unlikely, the high tides will interact with estuary outflow to slow down the ability of rivers such as the Shannon or rivers reaching the south coast to discharge high volumes of water.

Next update from me will be the morning forecast at around 0715h. -- MTC

Friday, 11 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfall in Munster and Galway, spreading at times into parts of the midlands and south Leinster, from Saturday to Monday in several intervals with total rainfalls 40-70 mm possible. Also, ALERT for locally heavy snowfall ahead of the rain in higher parts of Connacht, south Ulster and inland central Leinster on Saturday morning with 3-5 cm potential in a few locations, sleet more widespread, all turning to rain later.


TODAY ... Bright and cold with a few passing wintry showers possible mainly over higher parts of northwest, less windy than recent days but still a west to northwest breeze 30-50 km/hr, highs 4-7 C north, 6-9 C south. (Astronomy note, new moon is at 10:29 a.m. today).

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals in parts of north and east will produce some brief frost but clouds will increase, temperatures near -1 C in those regions will rise to about +2 C. Sleet could develop in a few places in north central counties towards morning. Further south, temperatures will start out around 4 C and rise to about 7 C with rain developing in west Munster towards morning. Winds near the south coast will become southeast 40-60 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... A cold start for much of the country away from the south and west coasts, sleet or snow possible especially over higher portions of Connacht and Ulster, inland north Leinster, as rain moves steadily north in western counties. The rain will only be light or drizzly in Donegal and parts of north Connacht. Eventually the precipitation will change over to rain in all higher locations, temperatures will edge upwards from 1-4 C to 7-10 C in the north, and from 5-7 C to 11-13 C in the south. Winds easterly becoming southerly, 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls of about 20-40 mm likely in western counties, 5-15 mm elsewhere (3-7 cms snow in early stages for some higher areas). The heaviest rain now appears headed for Clare, Kerry, Limerick and Cork, 50 mm could fall on higher terrain. Flooding may resume or worsen in a few places.

SATURDAY NIGHT into SUNDAY will continue mild, foggy at times, with further rainfalls of 10-30 mm in western counties developing towards morning then showery outbreaks during the day, leading to some further flooding, but only 5-15 mm further east except 15-25 mm on parts of Wicklow Mountains. Very mild with highs 11-14 C in southerly winds increasing to 50-80 km/hr.

MONDAY will continue windy and very mild with occasional rain, 10-20 mm possible in parts of west, and 20-30 mm near south coast, highs near 13 C and winds southerly 70-100 km/hr.

TUESDAY will be mild with occasional light rain, foggy at times, less windy with highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It may turn slightly cooler mid-week but mild south to southwest winds will soon resume. Highs will be near 8 C mid-week and back into 10-12 C range later. There are still fairly steady indications of increasingly volatile conditions as the jet stream intensifies later in the month around the Christmas to New Year holiday week.

It has been very mild for several days in most of the central and eastern United States and the weekend will bring near-record warmth with 21-24 C predicted for some of the larger cities. Thursday was very unsettled on the west coast but that storm is now circling around towards Oregon and somewhat improved conditions will slowly spread south behind it, meanwhile my local weather on Thursday was overcast with heavy rain at times and gusty winds, highs near 10 C.

Sunday, 13 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy and mild, turning mostly dry after the band of mostly light rain finishes moving through Connacht, Leinster and Ulster, 5-10 mm for locations north of Galway to Dublin. Highs 10-12 C south, 8-10 C central and about 6-8 C north. Winds SE 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Windy with periods of rain becoming heavier, 10-20 mm likely in south, 30 mm in a few locations. Lows 8-10 C. Winds SSE 70-100 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Occasional rain, some heavier bursts likely, in strong SE to S'ly winds 70-110 km/hr, highs 10-12 C. About 10-15 mm further rain.

TUESDAY ... Windy and very mild with more rain, some of it rather heavy. About 15-25 mm rain, this steady accumulation may result in widespread flooding around this time, lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C. Winds will remain southerly 70-110 km/hr with some severe gusts possible near south coast.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, rain tapering to showers and ending with some sunny spells as winds moderate, south to southwest 30-50 km/hr by afternoon. Lows near 9 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued mild, moderate winds and more rain on Thursday, more variable Friday, but very windy Saturday with rain redeveloping. Expect about 30 mm through this period with temperatures 8-12 C. Beyond Saturday, a more westerly flow is likely and this may bring temperatures down to about 7 to 9 C. Some very strong winds could develop just before Christmas and then may occur again in the days after Christmas. Even though there is a lot of mild weather in the forecasts, there is a slim chance of Christmas Day being a bit colder with the potential for light snow flurries. But this is just a "maybe" at this point.

As we're running late (have been out) will just finish up with a note of record high temperatures yesterday and today in eastern parts of the U.S., highs in the 21-24 C range from Washington D.C. to New York City. My local weather by contrast was rather cold, windy and wet with a high near 6 C.

Tuesday, 15 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfall in south coast counties, Kerry to Waterford, about 20 to 30 mm likely through the day and overnight. Dry tomorrow for a change.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy and very mild, intervals of mostly light rain although heavier near south coast where 20-30 mm possible, otherwise 5-15 mm should be the range. Highs 11-13 C, winds SE to S 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to showers, winds gradually veering to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mostly dry except for some light showers expected late afternoon in the south, very mild. Highs 12-15 C in moderate southwest breezes.

THURSDAY ... Windy and mild, showers or periods of rain (about 10-15 mm) with lows 7-9 C and highs 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, occasional showers. Lows 7-9 C and highs 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with rain becoming heavy at times, potential for 20-30 mm, and winds increasing to SSW 70-110 km/hr, highs 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued mild, another spike in temperatures expected around Tuesday 22nd when it could reach 13 C, but then turning somewhat colder and looking rather unsettled for the holiday period, too early to nail down details but some chance of mixed precipitation at least in the north as temperatures may be in the 3-7 C range from north to south around Christmas Day. The maps now showing up for the rest of the holiday period look increasingly stormy with potential for strong winds around 27th and again New Years Eve. Temperatures look closer to normal values in that interval in a strong southwest to west flow.

The picture for BRITAIN is about the same, very mild almost all the way to Christmas Eve then turning a bit colder.

Record warmth continued on Monday in the eastern half of the U.S., highs reached 20-24 C and today won't see much of a drop despite a weak cold front passing, a reload of this warmth will soon begin as low pressure forms in the southern plains states and heads northeast. Behind that low, much colder air is flooding south, with light snow covering much of Utah and Colorado at this point, extending into northern Arizona where it's -12 C at the Grand Canyon in the early morning hours. Further south, while it's cooler than average, highs for Phoenix will reach 15 C. My local weather is somewhat on the cold side as well, breezy with passing showers and hail or snow on hills, highs near 5 C.

Thursday, 17 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy to windy and mild, periods of rain ending in Leinster by late morning (about 5-10 mm additional rainfall there), then partially clearing from west with a few later showers possible, more frequent in west, highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, rain at times towards morning, lows 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, occasional showers, and highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild with rain becoming heavy at times, potential for 20-30 mm, and winds increasing to SSW 70-110 km/hr, highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY will continue very mild and it may get quite windy at times Monday night or Tuesday morning as deep low pressure passes well to the north. Different models now have various estimates of wind speed potential, ranging from 70 km/hr to 110 km/hr in gusts for parts of Connacht. Highs will continue to run between 11 and 13 C. There could also be heavy rainfalls with this Monday-Tuesday frontal system.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for unsettled and increasingly windy weather in the days around Christmas, winds may gust to 80 or 90 km/hr at times on 24th and 25th with highs 7-9 C, showers or periods of rain, then it could turn even stormier 26th-27th with deep low pressure forming over the central Atlantic, too soon to hoist a red flag on this but it matches up with research indications of a very stormy interval around these dates. For now, would say that we have a very close watch on developments. No concrete signs of colder weather, at least not cold enough for widespread snow, but hints that the temperature trend is generally downward after the 22nd.

All of the above is basically true for Britain also, with the chance of a few locations reaching 15 or 16 C (actually Malin Head did that overnight at 04h).

The eastern U.S. will see a gradual cooling trend and the Great Lakes region will have a brief taste of winter with lake effect snowfalls developing over the next several days but this won't last, much milder weather will return to those regions for the Christmas week. It is quite cold in the far west, my local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cold with a sharp frost, highs near 4 C and a risk of sleet or wet snow developing later today.

Saturday, 19 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Very windy (S-SW 70-110 km/hr) in parts of Connacht and west Ulster for a few hours, but then winds should ease to 40-70 km/hr, while other regions will start around 50-90 km/hr before easing this afternoon. There will be a few bursts of moderate showery rain but amounts will generally be only about 5-10 mm. Continuing mild, highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain in the south will spread to the east coast, with about 10-15 mm possible. Further west, just a few showers or occasional light rain, 2-5 mm. Turning slightly colder with morning lows about 6-8 C. Winds moderate southwest 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers may be briefly heavy, chance of thunder in north-central counties, moderate WSW winds 50-80 km/hr. Highs about 9 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning rain and strong winds (SW 70-100 km/hr) should begin to ease around mid-day, morning lows near 7 C and afternoon highs about 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Another round of squally showers, gusty winds to 100 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, less windy with lows 3-5 C and highs about 8-10 C.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Windy with gusts to 100 km/hr in exposed areas and possibly very windy in north with westerly gusts to 120 km/hr, a few squally showers, then improving weather later in the day as this storm moves rapidly away, temperatures in the 5 to 9 C range.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) ... The current indications are generally showing a calm start with fog or mist likely, then some rain pushing in from the south, temperatures mostly in the 6-9 C range but possibly a bit colder over higher parts of the north where a bit of sleet can't be ruled out. Light rainfalls generally of about 5-10 mm. This picture could change to something a bit more active given that we are still about six days away.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming milder again, then quite stormy at times as deep low pressure areas form in the central Atlantic and move towards Donegal Bay. We can't be fully certain how strong these winds may become, it depends on how close to land the low pressure centres travel. The most likely time for strong winds would be around 26th-27th and 29th-30th in two separate events.

Over in BRITAIN, the above picture will be fairly similar in most regions although there will be somewhat milder temperatures in southern England as well as less rain in general there.

Some areas of eastern NORTH AMERICA have cooled down to more normal temperatures with a few lake effect snow squalls although it is not a major outbreak, nor will it last very long, as temperatures rapidly warm up again this coming week, to around 17-20 C in the major eastern cities.

My local weather meanwhile was cloudy with a few brief sleety showers, and cool, with highs about 6 or 7 C. We are in a rather non-descript weather pattern now and this will continue right up to New Years apparently. I will attempt to describe it anyway.

Monday, 21 December, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... This morning's rain and strong winds (SW 70-100 km/hr) should begin to ease around mid-day as some clearing develops, as winds veer more to the west (40-70 km/hr by afternoon), but a few showers will likely redevelop in parts of the west and north, with temperatures falling from about 11 C in the morning to 7-9 C this afternoon. About 10 mm more rain will fall in the next few hours, some minor flooding may develop on roads in Leinster and east Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Another windy, wet frontal system will arrive and this one will be slightly stronger, with south to southwest wind gusts to 110 km/hr and 10-15 mm rainfalls, temperatures rising during the night to about 10-12 C by morning. Winter officially begins with the winter solstice at 4:48 a.m. Tuesday.

TUESDAY ... During the morning, squally showers, gusty winds to 110 km/hr, and temperatures steady 8-10 C. The afternoon will once again see improvements and showers more confined to the west.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, less windy for the first part of the day, just a few isolated showers near northwest coasts mainly, with colder morning lows of 2-4 C and highs about 7-9 C. Strong winds and rain will sweep in late in the day or during the late afternoon on Atlantic coasts, and will peak during the first half of the overnight hours, with south to southwest gusts to 120 km/hr on exposed coasts, generally 80-100 km/hr most other regions. This wind and rain storm will begin to moderate towards sunrise Thursday after dropping 15-25 mm of rain. Some minor wind damage is likely in exposed parts of Connacht and west Ulster, and possibly near the south coast. The storm will be even more intense for northern Scotland where gusts to about 140 km/hr are likely Thursday morning.

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) ... Windy during the early morning in parts of the north, with gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed areas but winds in most of the south will quickly settle back to 40-60 km/hr during the morning hours and by afternoon most places will have moderate southwest winds and a few passing showers, some becoming squally with hail, and some chance of a few of these showers turning wintry over higher parts of the north towards evening, with temperatures in the 5 to 9 C range for most during the day, but falling to 1-3 C in the evening in some central and northern counties. No large snow accumulations are expected.

FRIDAY (Christmas Day) ... Foggy to start with drizzle, possibly a touch of sleet or wet snow over northern hills, but slowly warming up during the mid-day and afternoon hours in an increasing southeasterly wind reaching 50-70 km/hr by late in the day, with some rain (5-15 mm) pushing in from the south, morning temperatures around 2 to 5 C in most places, then slowly warming to about 6-9 C by afternoon and 8-11 C by evening.

SATURDAY (St Stephen's Day) ... Mild and windy with occasional rain, southerly winds 60-90 km/hr developing, highs near 10 or 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The last days of the month and year will probably remain quite mild in a generally southerly flow, and there is a risk of strong or even severe winds developing at some point, guidance is having trouble resolving the complexity of the situation once a very deep low develops in the western Atlantic and drifts closer to the central parts of the ocean around the 27th. What is more certain is that temperatures will be generally well above freezing and near 10 C most days. Early January then begins to look considerably colder in more of a northwesterly flow.

All of the above will be fairly similar for BRITAIN. The eastern and central United States will be very mild through Christmas and well into the following week, with temperatures as much as 10-15 degrees above normal in many places (highs will reach 20 C at times). It is closer to normal over the western states and much of west-central Canada, my local weather on Sunday was overcast with brief showers and highs near 7 C.