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Winter Charts 2011/2012

11617181921

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    It was stressful alright, I've heard greenie highs are a lot easier for the models to handle so if something does start brewing their in the next week hopefully it won't be so rough a rollercoaster.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,522 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    There was a time long ago when cigarettes had to carry a government health warning about the serious long term risks of smoking them.

    Have to wonder if it isn't time we started putting something similar on these charts, the damage they are doing to things like blood pressure and stress levels is not funny, not at all:D

    It's not a roller coaster, they keep going forward at about the same speed, this is more like that staircase thing in Florida. goes up slowly for what seems like for ever, then all of a sudden, it drops like a stone, and you don't know how soon it's going to stop and go up again. :p:p

    How mant times have people said "Game over", and then within a few hours even, the charts are hanging all manner of potential snowmageddon over us.

    Times like this, I'm glad I've got my own private lamp post I can stare at, at least I can turn it off so that I don't get even more dissapointed :D:D:D

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    I'd rather gouge my own eyes out with hot teaspoons than go through the past weeks model watching again.

    My sentitments exactly. I have spent the past couple of weeks checking the models on a daily basis. I was really hopeful of a decent cold spell for Ireland. The result? A few frosts, no snow and the mild Atlantic muck to win out at the weekend :mad:

    MT's forecast this morning does not inspire enthusiasm either for cold lovers - mild next week with highs of 9-12oC. We could be back in October!

    I think I will pass on the next rollercoaster ride. In my mind, the snow chances for Ireland this winter have all but gone. :(

    D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,029 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Its alright lads, I found this !! :p;):D:pac:

    cfs-2-990_jik1.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    And only 6 weeks away too!! :) looks like my prediction of +15C by St Patrick's Day could be about to fall apart! :eek: that wouldn't be a bad thing though if that chart came off mid-March :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Hay Su ,

    Have you any thoughts on how you think things might play out after mid month ?

    Are the teleconections pointing towards northern blocking ?

    Interested to hear your views after the great call on how this cold snap would play out and what your feelings are for the mild interlude to maybe midmonth .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭Snowmaker


    Not a lot of support or model consensus for this, but thought it may be interesting if this scenario came off next week, very brief event though if it did happen! - not too far into FI... :)

    191038.png

    191039.png

    preceded during the night by this:
    191040.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,029 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    CFS always cheers me up !

    cfs-2-342_sen0.png

    cfs-2-432_tuz5.png


  • Subscribers Posts: 8,322 ✭✭✭Scubadevils


    I recall someone saying back in about November that CFS was showing cold for most of Feb and nothing really prior to that, it may turn out to be correct!


  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    A reload for round 2:)

    gfs-2012013118-1-324.png?18?18
    and then this[IMG]http://62.89.145.4/charts/18_300_uksnowdepth.png?dt=14January 20061218:42[/IMG]


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,810 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Jaysus, that'd be one for the record books. The only part of the country with snow would be..........


    WATERFORD !!!

    :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    If this came about Ireland and the UK would get epic snowfall. Huge battleground over both countries

    epicsnowfall.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    WE all like to see a slice of heaven ever now and again :D :rolleyes: :D

    191300.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Some more pretty colours from Canadian model. 2 m anomaly temp in F


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    redsunset wrote: »
    Some more pretty colours from Canadian model. 2 m anomaly temp in F

    191305.png

    Is this anomaly from a certain time scale in overall winter or just the last week.

    Ireland looks very very chilly


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Top of image, 138 hours ahead


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    redsunset wrote: »
    Top of image, 138 hours ahead

    Yeah I seen that , but an anomaly is usually,

    Option A was this cold in January

    Option B will be this cold in February,

    The anomaly is the difference in the two so in this chart are we to take it that the 06/02/12 will be -10 to -17 degrees cold than the 03/02/12 ?

    Ive made that seem really complicated when it prob isnt !


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Below normal temps for said period.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Surely its just comparing the projected temperature with the average for this time of year? Going for about 6C below average in Ireland if that's the case


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Harps wrote: »
    Surely its just comparing the projected temperature with the average for this time of year? Going for about 6C below average in Ireland if that's the case

    The green is a -9 , the white is -16/-17 and the purple is -18/-19

    Has -9 on green if you look closely at it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Correct
    But in F not c


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    redsunset wrote: »
    Correct
    But in F not c

    How stupid of me :o Had not noticed , dam americans :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    The green is a -9 , the white is -16/-17 and the purple is -18/-19

    Has -9 on green if you look closely at it

    I presume that's Fahrenheit? If not....:eek::D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    I presume that's Fahrenheit? If not....:eek::D

    Il have to nip off the CFS model to get a few FI charts so I sweep my indiscretions under the table :o


    WOW look at this beauty

    [IMG][/img]cfs-2-288_ctq2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭dexter647


    Helloo...:D:D

    ECM0-192_atg2.GIF


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  • Registered Users Posts: 413 ✭✭aurora 527


    Nice..gfs-1-144.png?18


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    And way in on FI on the the 12z ECM run, signs of the scandi high pushing west again.

    ECM1-240.GIF


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    A zonal flow as flat as a pancake for next Tuesday!
    I think flooding in E.Europe will be in the news next week, with rivers frozen solid the snow melt will have nowhere to go?Recm1201.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Time to get the sand bags ready?
    Look how far east the 546 dam line is in Eastern Europe!
    brack4.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 845 ✭✭✭tylercollins


    Time to get the sand bags ready?
    Look how far east the 546 dam line is in Eastern Europe!

    2 questions

    1.) What is the "546 dam line"?

    2.) Sand bags ready. Explain?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    2 questions

    1.) What is the "546 dam line"?

    2.) Sand bags ready. Explain?


    My guess is warmer temperatures will melt all the snow still lying on the ground.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    2 questions

    1.) What is the "546 dam line"?

    2.) Sand bags ready. Explain?

    The Dam line is the height of the 500mb level above sea level which varies depending on how cold or warm the lower atmosphere is.
    A sub 528 dam is generally required for snow but the 546 is usually in the vicinity of Ireland in winter and not so far east.
    We need blue colours over Ireland for any decent winter weather. This chart is a perfect example. (see graph on right of chart)
    Rrea00120101222.gif

    snow on the ground melts quickly but ice on rivers takes much longer. There was serious flooding in the UK in March 1947 because of this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,336 ✭✭✭arctictree


    A final blast of winter perhaps?

    120328_0000_144.png

    120328_0000_138.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    arctictree wrote: »
    A final blast of winter perhaps?

    120328_0000_144.png

    120328_0000_138.png

    The ECM would say yes, but the gfs have none of it, If it dose happen its going to be a shock to the system after this week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    The ECM would say yes, but the gfs have none of it, If it dose happen its going to be a shock to the system after this week.

    God I hope not, weather in dublin is absolutely beautiful atm, some of the clearest skies I've ever seen, sun spitting the rocks, no wind, and I'd say its about 20 degress out side now. In my shorts, tshirt and fli flops right now:D Would ate if it got colder, if it even does happen it wont be the proper snow and will melt quickly, long live the nice hot weather hopefully all summer long!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    God I hope not, weather in dublin is absolutely beautiful atm, some of the clearest skies I've ever seen, sun spitting the rocks, no wind, and I'd say its about 20 degress out side now. In my shorts, tshirt and fli flops right now:D Would ate if it got colder, if it even does happen it wont be the proper snow and will melt quickly, long live the nice hot weather hopefully all summer long!

    Dont think it will be a snow fest, just a lot colder than we have right now:)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    hopefully this will only be a brief spell of colder weather before it turns better again, then again I dont mind a crap April as long as July and August turn out decent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    FI I know but I feel a "sting in the tail" is inevitable. A white Easter perhaps?
    PS. I mentioned a snowfall in April '98 in a previous post but in fact it was the night of April 14-15 1999 when several cms fell.

    Rtavn2401.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Rrea00119990414.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    this chart is a very big I'm afraid :o I wouldn't know how to make it smaller :o
    nice chart though!

    bracka19990415.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Seen this online
    The Postman Forecaster said this.

    “People will laugh at me but I think we could have another cold snap just yet.

    “Getting heat like this so early is never good and I think it could turn quite cold again fairly soon


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Pangea wrote: »
    Seen this online
    The Postman Forecaster said this.

    “People will laugh at me but I think we could have another cold snap just yet.

    “Getting heat like this so early is never good and I think it could turn quite cold again fairly soon

    Met Eireann are already giving day time maxes of 7c in northern areas next Monday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I put all my winter gear away and now there is a possibility of cold weather again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    this chart is a very big I'm afraid :o I wouldn't know how to make it smaller :o
    nice chart though!

    Handy and simple site for resizing images:
    http://www.resizeyourimage.com
    Just follow the 3 simple steps on bottom of page and resize the image to whatever dimensions you want. A wee example:

    198207.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Lucreto wrote: »
    I put all my winter gear away and now there is a possibility of cold weather again.
    You might want to have a look for them, Looks like Easter could have a chill to it. Or the easter snow bunnies might make an appearance :)

    ECM

    ECM0-144.GIF?29-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    You might want to have a look for them, Looks like Easter could have a chill to it. Or the easter snow bunnies might make an appearance :)

    ECM

    ECM0-144.GIF?29-0

    As much as I want to believe it I doubt it will happen. Just one final tease until the end of the year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    547702_260708140687459_176235642468043_567259_660448862_n.jpg

    Its by no means that crazy folks... so yeah , ill give this one a go! :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    This is a little bit out in FI but something to look forward to in January 2013





    199729.png


    199730.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    best chart I've ever seen! wrong time of year though, pass the box of kleenex
    sob sob.

    gfsnh-0-96.png?12


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