Summer 2017 - General Discussion

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Anyone seen the Irish independent? I'm unable to link articles but the way there reporting the weather is that the whole country is and will be bathed in hot temperatures and sunshine for the foreseeable. It's ridiculous.

For me it's more annoying when they run headlines "Ireland to be warmer than Spain, Fiji and Greece" and then you see 22 degrees.
I mean sweet jaysus

Cloud breaking here and plenty of sun now, very very warm, time to get out on the bike

km79 wrote: »

No sun in east Galway for last 2 days
Dull and gloomy
But disappointing
But it's dry and I don't want use to use up our quota of sunny days yet

Gorgeous afternoon and evening !

Serious drop in temperatures starting from next week and pissing rain.
Can't believe I missed the good weather. Again.

TheRiverman wrote: »

The awful s....e that Independent.ie and to a lesser extent Met Eireann come out with about a heatwave in Ireland is bizarre.The last time I remember what could be classed a heatwave here was in 1995 and prior to that the great Summers of 1975 and 1976.If we get one day now that is 24 or 25 degrees it is a heatwave.Mad:mad:

Irishtimes and examiner were the same.

Jaysus lows of 13 degrees next week.
You can't help but get frustrated at the ****e people endure when it comes to weather in Ireland.

sryanbruen wrote: »

You weren't far off Pauldry .

He said bank holiday weekend, that's next weekend remember

Can anyone say what the week following the bank holiday weekend might be like?

Does anybody want me to reveal my Summer 2017 forecast a day early or do you want to wait 'til tomorrow? :P

glossy wrote: »

Now!!!
If only it contains lots of sun sun I mean lots of sun sun sun

Here ya go glossy .

Ok this is my official Summer 2017 forecast guys and I have put a large amount of work into preparing this so don't feel that this is a "total" guess. Obviously, I'm not going to give my final thoughts just straight off the spot for Summer 2017. I will summarise all of my research and analogues I have made for the Summer of 2017.

The few things we had a look at for predicting what Summer 2017 would be like were warm Marches, very dry Aprils, the May setup and dry Aprils & dry Mays combined. We also had a look at Weak La Nina winters to El Nino summers as well as Weak La Nina winters to ENSO neutral summers.

Warm Marches since 1990 in Ireland showed a deep trough over the country with a stubborn block of high pressure over Greenland and the Arctic. We could clearly see that from the side of warm Marches, a warm March (at least since 1990) is not a good sign for Ireland's summer weather. Many of the years that had warm Marches tended to be followed by the poorest of summers since 1990 such as 2012.

The Warm Marches were contradicted by the driest Aprils since 1955 however. Everybody's theory is that if you get a very dry April, it's a guarantee for a poor Summer. Well not necessarily. Before 1955, that was indeed the case and there is not a single very dry April (in Ireland at least) that was followed by a good Summer. Since then, things have changed significantly however as it was a long time ago. The analogue for the driest Aprils since 1955 shows a stubborn ridge of high pressure over Ireland with a deep trough nearly over all of mainland Europe bar us and western Scandinavia. This clearly showed that very dry Aprils since 1955 were a very good sign for good summers. There is a mix of summers in the analogue but Ireland's best summers, 1995, 1976 and 1955 are in there.

Weak La Nina winters to El Nino summers were not a good sign at all, like warm Marches for the Summer. They showed a deep trough over the country and much of western Europe bringing a very, very poor Summer. Weak La Nina winters to ENSO neutral summers were different summers than those of course in the weak La Nina winters to El Nino summers analogue BUT the depressing part is that the pattern is the exact same with a deep trough over the country bringing very poor Summer weather. So on the ENSO side of things, Summer 2017 is not looking good.

The May 2017 setup shows strong Northern Blocking albeit building through the country also bringing quite a lot of settled, sunny weather. Unfortunately, despite some similarities in some Mays, there is no exact match to May 2017's setup. May 1957 was one of my "similar" matches to May 2017 that I found but it's still different. The conditions of May 1957 were nearly the exact same as May 2017 however. May 1957 was a very sunny, dry and rather cool month. The only difference with May 2017 being is that it has been a warmer month than May 1957. Overall, you can't really put May 1957 as a match for May 2017 despite its similarities.

The long range models are showing a very clear signal for a warm Summer, some more significantly than others especially the BCC and Jamstec. But overall, they're all going for a warm Summer and not a single one is going for a cool Summer. There is a split on precipitation as well as where the high and low pressures will end up. There is a trend mostly on low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east bringing up southerlies. Precipitation is trending around average overall as some models are showing a wet Summer, some are showing an average Summer and some others are showing a dry Summer. The ones that are trending wetter than average could possibly be down to thundery downpours that will push up from the south with the southerlies bringing a wet Summer. That could be the reason why. Overall, the models are showing a decent Summer, probably even more than decent.

With all the elements summarised now, I think it's time to give my final thoughts and predictions for Summer 2017. Back in my December 2016 predictions for 2017, this is what I predicted for Summer 2017:

June - Pleasantly warm and dry. Very sunny.
July - Very sunny, dry and warm.
August - Warm, wet and dull.

I cannot change these predictions even if my thoughts change. However, if I were allowed to change, I most certainly would because I think that Summer 2017 will get off to a pretty slow start. By this I mean, you should not expect any amazing weather to start the Summer. I am feeling that the start of Summer 2017 will be very bland and pretty boring. Nothing atrociously poor or amazingly good. Now are you ready for this, I am going ALL IN with this one when I say it. During the latter part of June and into the rest of the Summer, I am expecting a very large rise in temperatures and at some point this Summer, I am expecting a heatwave. My money is on July but could be August too. I am expecting a very warm spell at the end of June much like how May has gone off but even warmer or hotter. I am also expecting a lot more thundery downpours in places this Summer with the expected southerly flow. If we do not get this kind of weather at any part of the Summer, I am sure that the start of September will definitely bring it. Sunshine won't be anything remarkable. It will probably be a west-east split with the west often seeing cloudy weather and the east seeing sunny weather. With southerly winds, this is often the case. So you heard it from me here, I am expecting a slow start to Summer but then a huge difference with a heatwave, plenty of fine weather etc albeit thundery downpours at times. So I'm going very risky with my Summer 2017 predictions. I would also like to add that Summer 1995 started very slow in June with quite a cool and dull start. That changed significantly however as we went further into the Summer. Hope that gets you excited! Don't rely on my predictions here as with any long range forecasting, it's all in the realm of just for fun. Enjoy your day guys!

Mostly unsettled, cool with below June average for the first week or two. Then the summer weather begins. Just my €0:02c .

I think June will be quite a poor month until halftime

Gonzo wrote: »

the next 2 weeks don't look good at all. It's been very disappointing since the warm spell ended on Friday night, after Saturdays relentless downpour, it's been dull, cool and damp ever since and barely any sunshine.

Yep, the GFS ensembles showing a potential very showery/wet spell early next week for Dublin here.

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like a right off as far as June 17th, and very cool at times, may have to put the heat on a few times next week.

I think you're stooping a bit low however to say it will be "very cool" at times. Not looking that cool at all to me. Temperatures looking average to slightly above.

Terry Scholey (a forecaster over at Netweather forums) gave his Summer 2017 forecast and yes I know it's primarily for the UK but still, nice to share here. It's quite similar to mine bar June being very different. Here is his forecast:

A decent very warm Summer with stifling heat at times. Uneven rainfall with lengthy dry spell mostly in June when drought is possible.
Short very wet spells with thunderstorms giving localised torrential downpours - Wettest period probably towards or around mid-July. Stark temperature contrasts in north and east.

This is my final decesion, in what should be at the very least a decent summer. The warmth has been based on the phase of the Hale solar cycle that brings up or is close to many of the very warm summers of the past. Singularities remain as important as ever and have also been included as they are being quite well followed at present.

Current events show that warm May's are often followed by unsettled summers, so conditions although warm perhaps much warmer than average may at times be rather mixed. Current short term solar activity suggests the most likely periods for fine summer weather on any of the three months are around the 4th to 12th and 21st to 26th.

Rough monthly breakdowns timings approximate
June:- Warmer than average, particularly at first and later. Drier than average, very dry in a few places. Mixed but very warm at times especially in the East and South. Mainly dry towards during and after mid-month. Humid mostly early and later, with heavy showers or thunder into the second and during the final week.

July:- Stifling heat at times at first, followed perhaps by thunder. Unsettled and cooler towards mid-month, probably quite wet at times. Further very warm or hot humid spells after about the 20th, followed by thunder and mixed weather towards month end.

August:- More very warm or hot, humid spells, but some showers with thunder occasionally. A trend for somewhat cooler, fresher but mainly dry weather towards mid-month. Perhaps another very warm spell towards or into the final week, followed by thunder and cooler conditions by month end.