Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

It's also based on pretty much every vulnerable vaccinated person being exposed to Covid in order for breakthrough infections to cause mass deaths.

In context, England, despite higher cases numbers, only ~4% of new cases are in the over 50's. I know it takes time for cases to spread up through the age groups, but there's definitely a vaccine effect causing the spread to be much much slower than previous waves.

Ah, nice one!

Anyone know what the age profile is of the people admitted into hospital and if they were fully or half vaccinated?

It is true that after a certain percentage of the population have been vaccinated, natural virus spread has some benefits provided it does not go completely out of control. The difficulty is determining what that vaccination level is and whether it is sufficient that the benefits of immunity through contracting the virus outweigh the costs.

This view contrasts with a fairly common one on this forum that the more people are shielded from the virus while vaccinations are proceeding the the quicker things can open up. The problem with the vaccination only route, of course, is that it is not taking advantage of immunity through catching the virus. It is relying purely on vaccinations. The danger is that progress may be sufficiently slow that another winter approaches and full opening then needs to be postponed to the following year.

What boggles me is that Tony said last week that the wave is coming, and we cannot do anything about it. Now today Ronan Glynn said that with public health measures we can prevent it from spreading (too late). It's here already and we're seeing it but let's be real - SURELY, with the vulnerable vaccinated, this disease is not a huge risk anymore?

Very true. There is still a calculation to be made however. In reaching that number after which numbers start to decline, how many hospitalisations, ICU admissions, deaths will there be in order to gain the benefit of not having to close up again in autumn and have the whole thing drag out in to next year.

I think the UK have probably made this calculation and found that there's more to be gained from opening up now in the summer than remaining restricted and prolonging problems.

Young people nearly as likely now to suffer from Long Covid with organ damage as over 50's.