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Winter 2011/2012

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    289_Recm2401.gif


    ECM has an insane low at +240hrs, this would deposit Ireland somewhere in Russia! :D


    930MB!!?




    Dan :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    10c out with realfeel 0c.... wonderful morning out here on Northside of Dublin. Chilly and wet...just how I like it...although I would prefer snow :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    No snow really for Ireland for the next few weeks, looking very much like the AO wont be dropping anytime soon of course the AO is not the only driver to cold weather but its a huge part, also the NAO wont be dipping anytime soon.
    If i was V ogan id be thinking my forecast of a big freeze after x mas day will be a no show ,ah well there is always winter 2012-13 or maybe 2014-15 to have another big freeze.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    No snow really for Ireland for the next few weeks, looking very much like the AO wont be dropping anytime soon of course the AO is not the only driver to cold weather but its a huge part, also the NAO wont be dipping anytime soon.
    If i was V ogan id be thinking my forecast of a big freeze after x mas day will be a no show ,ah well there is always winter 2012-13 or maybe 2014-15 to have another big freeze.

    Why have you written off winter of 2013/14 :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Why have you written off winter of 2013/14 :confused:

    It's said to cause a reaction, Jerry.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Why have you written off winter of 2013/14 :confused:
    When he got up and looked out his window there was a dandelion with a partial tear facing the setting sun at 8.15 on the morning of the last full moon and a caterpillar crawling directly away from the sun.


    Tsch!!!!!.....Obviously :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    It's said to cause a reaction, Jerry.

    We are not even threw this winter yet:rolleyes: My bet is Febuary;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Here is a google translate of the meteo france outlook posted december third.
    If we are to get an easterly here,it would be better in january it seems as that polar vortex is showing no signs of stopping this side of Xmas.

    Holly is full of berries but I wouldn't pay heed to that as it's a bumper harvest only because they were stripped bare last year.

    Forecast updated December 3, 2011 for France:



    Global context: Nina continued until the spring


    As expected for several months, the phenomenon La Nina ocean continues at least until spring 2012 in the Pacific Ocean. This Nina looks weaker than last year, but most of the weather models still considering another winter cold enough in the northern hemisphere. Severe weather conditions could even prevail over North America and parts of Europe, a recent study of climate scientists from NOAA (American Meteorological Administration) and the British MetOffice.


    Despite these factors, the fall is historically low in France (which was not foreseen by the seasonal patterns), our services are now considering a winter "normal" occasionally quite cold in late December and January.

    One point to watch for more substantial rainfall are now expected over the northern half of France, but in the prospect of a new dry spring, the rains will not allow groundwater to recover after an exceptionally dry year 2011.


    December: progressively colder in second half


    Times more agitated with the return of ocean disturbances. Then the second half looks more winter with a period considered cold enough for Christmas. It could be a dry cold and foggy. Snow should be at the rendezvous at the stations for the winter holidays of Christmas, but the amount moédérée compared to previous years.


    January 2012: Temperatures below normal


    After the sudden arrival of cold temperatures in late December did not recover in January to be within the normal with a cold as possible in the first decade in the winter of 2009 so it will be one month winter with very cold days. Disturbances should bring the average rainfall in the northern half, with probably a few episodes in the snowy plain.

    February: softer


    The winter is expected to end quickly, not excluding some cold periods in the first half, but then, temperatures should return to the above average rainfall with a loss, especially in the southern half. March: dry and sweet (poor reliability in the spring, which may be colder than expected by the models studied).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Tis like trying to climb mount everest.Really needs to continue with no major set backs to soften up that Polar Vortex.Perfect timing if it does indeed continue warming.
    pole30_nh.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    blackius wrote: »
    Here is a google translate of the meteo france outlook posted december third.

    ...

    Times more agitated with the return of ocean disturbances.


    You gotta love Google Translate, everything sounds like Yoda :D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Morning Ireland: Holly flourishing in mild winter: Holly grower Joe Barry

    http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/1209/media-3136291.html#


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    And now for that madden guy again .........“Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with some deep and widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. Any required updates will be posted accordingly”
    I have stated since very early this year, that I expect December to feature below-average temperatures with widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK. I have also stated “across many parts of the UK” for a good reason, as I will explain.
    Weather Warning – Widespread snowfall and much colder temperatures
    Now although there is going to be some notable snow about in the early part of next week, as forecast on Exacta Weather on the 8th November 2011. I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures, at times within this period in the evenings. A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.
    Definition of a white Christmas “across many parts of the UK”
    A single snowflake must fall at any time during the twenty four hour period of Christmas day at a specified location. Snow already lying on the ground does not count as a white Christmas officially, and I say this as snow is likely to be lying on the ground in many locations on or around this period, if things develop as I expect them to over the coming weeks.
    December widespread snowfall “across many parts of the UK”
    I am not expecting December to be the most severe month of this meteorological winter, as I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February, and I have also never stated otherwise. I have also stated that there will be some periods of moderation at times and any areas further south are likely to see the best of these conditions.
    I am however expecting widespread and heavy snow across many parts of the UK in December, and although the regions I expect to be affected by the most frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls are Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West, North East, and Yorkshire. I am also expecting parts of the West and East Midlands, Wales, and the East to experience some notable and frequent heavy snowfalls in December too. Some moderate to heavy falls of snow are even likely at times across parts of London, South East, and the South West. This is why I have stated since earlier this year “across many parts of the
    UK in December”.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    AO dropping again
    184477.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Wait... so up means good ??? :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Good if you like milder weather.

    A lower AO index allows for a weaker polar vortex and more chance of blocking


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Wait... so up means good ??? :confused:

    Higher index is bad , lower index is better , Negative index is best

    This is from a cold lovers perspective !


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Now on the bad news front 14 day forecast is showing a dip and then a proper jump back up again , this does not please me :(


    Unless the 14 day forecast can held in the same distain as a normal GFS FI chart .


    184479.png


    184478.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    NAO paints a slightly better picture ,

    184481.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Snow cover in southern and western US.
    184486.jpg


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Snow cover in southern and western US.....

    Soooo jealous!:eek:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Higher index is bad , lower index is better , Negative index is best

    This is from a cold lovers perspective !

    Yeah but all charts you post seem to be positive, Im just not getting it :(


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Yeah but all charts you post seem to be positive, Im just not getting it :(

    The one I posted i starting to trend lower which is a good sign.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,599 ✭✭✭matthew8


    That's a pretty sharp AO drop. How low was the AO during last year's cold snap?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    matthew8 wrote: »
    That's a pretty sharp AO drop. How low was the AO during last year's cold snap?

    AO from last 60 years


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    i just cant see ireland getting a good widespread snow coverage this side of christmas, i say we might get just a dusting after christmas and long cold spell eg frost


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  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    Looking like rain and more rain from sunday onwards and into the next few weeks more rain.Looks like marks prediction is going to fail.
    The AO staying very high right up past xmas day ,looks like no cold spell at start of jan 2012 either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    guess i could be wrong according to accuweather a huge storm is to hit ireland on tuesday which is to pull in cold air to the north with snow and rain for the southern half might be repeat of "the night of the big wind" which brought heavy snow soon after =)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Yeah but all charts you post seem to be positive, Im just not getting it :(

    Positive is bad , Negative is good ,

    The charts have been in a very positive territory for the last while so any thing that see's them moving away from that type of setup is a good sign,

    We want them to go negative .


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    guess i could be wrong according to accuweather a huge storm is to hit ireland on tuesday which is to pull in cold air to the north with snow and rain for the southern half might be repeat of "the night of the big wind" which brought heavy snow soon after =)
    Snow in the south? I forgot what it even looks at this stage


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    yeah its long time since the south saw any real snow, well its according to accuweather on their news part showing a map of ireland with snow in the north and rain as norm in south


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Simon Keeling ...weather.co.uk


  • Registered Users Posts: 551 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Simon Keeling ...weather.co.uk


    Fascinating what could happen if the 2nd scenario around the 19th onwards he paints actually happens......SNOWMAGGEDON :eek::eek::eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Simon Keeling ...weather.co.uk
    omg another cold snap could happen i am so happy i love you wolfeIRE for this information


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    Looking like rain and more rain from sunday onwards and into the next few weeks more rain.Looks like marks prediction is going to fail.
    The AO staying very high right up past xmas day ,looks like no cold spell at start of jan 2012 either.

    another word for word recomment from doylem on the daily mail...cant believe your doylem. wont ever be able to look at you the same way again...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    another word for word recomment from doylem on the daily mail...cant believe your doylem. wont ever be able to look at you the same way again...

    Ha ha dont loose sleep over it:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    cant see anything come from it as its still far off, BUT next week will tell all as anything beyond 7days is hard to work out correctly


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Simon Keeling ...weather.co.uk

    Really well broken down look at the charts there , showing some potential too , I really like when people go into detail on where they are getting there idea's from


  • Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭StormGazer.11


    If that block does manage to form in the West Keeling and the ECMWF could become very popular around here :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    well infairness it does look very promising and well put together but theres still the real high risk it wont happen and just end up with a real cr*py storm on christmas as we had a vfew years back


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1 James madden100


    Snow is likley in many parts of the UK and Ireland in December January and Feburary.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Snow is likley in many parts of the UK and Ireland in December January and Feburary.

    a good optimistic first post without any scientific basis!

    you will go a long way on this site!


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    but ANY one can say snow dec,jan and feb its down to how much where, when and how long


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Looking at the F1 charts Christmas will be marked with double figures.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    likley.........Feburary.

    James may have got his forecast wrong for the start of winter, but his spelling is pretty much spot on.

    Please don't troll here whoever you may be.


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭mrweatherman


    hahaha any one can say it will snow in the main winter months of december, jan and feb


  • Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    well infairness it does look very promising and well put together but theres still the real high risk it wont happen and just end up with a real cr*py storm on christmas as we had a vfew years back
    no scienfic proof on that still i 50 percent chance it could happen


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    I think Mike65 is the biggest troll on here.:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,984 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Really well broken down look at the charts there , showing some potential too , I really like when people go into detail on where they are getting there idea's from

    Yeah I agree with that. Unlike others who just say there will be heavy snowfalls for most of the UK in December.
    However, it's unlikely his idea about a Greenland high linking with a scandi high will come to fruition though. With a strong vortex any high that builds up north will surely only be fleeting. In the current setup the only door to prolonged cold is through Scandinavia.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    another word for word recomment from doylem on the daily mail...cant believe your doylem. wont ever be able to look at you the same way again...

    This relationship is OVER!!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,029 ✭✭✭shedweller


    :D:Dao.obs.gif


This discussion has been closed.
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