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Winter 2011/2012

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  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Looking at the charts from last year (from November 18th onwards, just before our first severe cold spell), 850hPa temperatures over Scandinavia were hovering around the -16oC to -20oC mark.

    This very cold air then pushed south towards Ireland (Ireland 850hPa temps between -8oC and -12oC) thus giving us snow etc.

    I would suggest to anyone looking at the meteociel charts (GFS, EMCWF etc) to look for this type of cold over Scandinavia for Ireland to have any chance of a decent cold spell (even then the jet stream could keep such cold away from us!!)

    Latest models right up to the days before Christmas show Scandinavia under 850hPa temps of between +8oC and -8oC. No sign of a cold spell so !! :D (however health warning : FI Charts so this could all change)

    D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    derekon

    you won't get that post "thanked" around here with a message like that :D

    Us snow aficionados prefer to shoot the messenger :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Wild Bill wrote: »
    derekon

    you won't get that post "thanked" around here with a message like that :D

    Us snow aficionados prefer to shoot the messenger :cool:

    LOL :)

    However Wild Bill, I should have included my LRF for January 2012 - a severe arctic airmass over Ireland with heavy snowfall and temps dipping down past -15oc at night and not exceeding -5oC by day. :D:D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    derekon wrote: »
    LOL :)

    However Wild Bill, I should have included my LRF for January 2012 - a severe arctic airmass over Ireland with heavy snowfall and temps dipping down past -15oc at night and not exceeding -5oC by day. :D:D

    I'd have thanked you twice for that but they won't let me! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    derekon wrote: »
    Looking at the charts from last year (from November 18th onwards, just before our first severe cold spell), 850hPa temperatures over Scandinavia were hovering around the -16oC to -20oC mark.

    This very cold air then pushed south towards Ireland (Ireland 850hPa temps between -8oC and -12oC) thus giving us snow etc.

    I would suggest to anyone looking at the meteociel charts (GFS, EMCWF etc) to look for this type of cold over Scandinavia for Ireland to have any chance of a decent cold spell (even then the jet stream could keep such cold away from us!!)

    Latest models right up to the days before Christmas show Scandinavia under 850hPa temps of between +8oC and -8oC. No sign of a cold spell so !! :D (however health warning : FI Charts so this could all change)

    D

    Have to agree even if we did have an easterly wouldnt be worth anything as there is no real cold over europe now, so hopefully in Mid January things will change as we could be stuck in a cool zonal pattern for a while after the storms.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    baraca wrote: »
    I think they're referring to a poster on the daily mail website kippure.

    Paranoia setting it ?!


    :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,669 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    after the storm activity dies down, what may happen is for high pressure to develop to the southwest of us in response to the strong polar vortex.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭Coles


    Pangea wrote: »
    Has anyone here put on the snow tyres yet.
    After talking to a tyre fitter I have decided against snow tyres for the car and instead just got decent all-year tyres. I reckon they'll have plenty of grip over the coming months for when we get snow, and if it gets bad we won't be driving in the car anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 85 ✭✭StormGazer.11


    after the storm activity dies down, what may happen is for high pressure to develop to the southwest of us in response to the strong polar vortex.

    What do you think that high to the SW could bring for us Nacho (if it does play out that way of course).. More mild and drap rainy days? :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,669 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    What do you think that high to the SW could bring for us Nacho (if it does play out that way of course).. More mild and drap rainy days? :(

    well, it looks like i was wrong, according to the uk met office this cold zonal pattern will persist right up until january the 5th. if high pressure did build in from the south west we'd get milder and drier weather.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    289_Recm2401.gif


    ECM has an insane low at +240hrs, this would deposit Ireland somewhere in Russia! :D


    930MB!!?




    Dan :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    10c out with realfeel 0c.... wonderful morning out here on Northside of Dublin. Chilly and wet...just how I like it...although I would prefer snow :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    No snow really for Ireland for the next few weeks, looking very much like the AO wont be dropping anytime soon of course the AO is not the only driver to cold weather but its a huge part, also the NAO wont be dipping anytime soon.
    If i was V ogan id be thinking my forecast of a big freeze after x mas day will be a no show ,ah well there is always winter 2012-13 or maybe 2014-15 to have another big freeze.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,533 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    No snow really for Ireland for the next few weeks, looking very much like the AO wont be dropping anytime soon of course the AO is not the only driver to cold weather but its a huge part, also the NAO wont be dipping anytime soon.
    If i was V ogan id be thinking my forecast of a big freeze after x mas day will be a no show ,ah well there is always winter 2012-13 or maybe 2014-15 to have another big freeze.

    Why have you written off winter of 2013/14 :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Why have you written off winter of 2013/14 :confused:

    It's said to cause a reaction, Jerry.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 11,001 ✭✭✭✭opinion guy


    Why have you written off winter of 2013/14 :confused:
    When he got up and looked out his window there was a dandelion with a partial tear facing the setting sun at 8.15 on the morning of the last full moon and a caterpillar crawling directly away from the sun.


    Tsch!!!!!.....Obviously :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    It's said to cause a reaction, Jerry.

    We are not even threw this winter yet:rolleyes: My bet is Febuary;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Here is a google translate of the meteo france outlook posted december third.
    If we are to get an easterly here,it would be better in january it seems as that polar vortex is showing no signs of stopping this side of Xmas.

    Holly is full of berries but I wouldn't pay heed to that as it's a bumper harvest only because they were stripped bare last year.

    Forecast updated December 3, 2011 for France:



    Global context: Nina continued until the spring


    As expected for several months, the phenomenon La Nina ocean continues at least until spring 2012 in the Pacific Ocean. This Nina looks weaker than last year, but most of the weather models still considering another winter cold enough in the northern hemisphere. Severe weather conditions could even prevail over North America and parts of Europe, a recent study of climate scientists from NOAA (American Meteorological Administration) and the British MetOffice.


    Despite these factors, the fall is historically low in France (which was not foreseen by the seasonal patterns), our services are now considering a winter "normal" occasionally quite cold in late December and January.

    One point to watch for more substantial rainfall are now expected over the northern half of France, but in the prospect of a new dry spring, the rains will not allow groundwater to recover after an exceptionally dry year 2011.


    December: progressively colder in second half


    Times more agitated with the return of ocean disturbances. Then the second half looks more winter with a period considered cold enough for Christmas. It could be a dry cold and foggy. Snow should be at the rendezvous at the stations for the winter holidays of Christmas, but the amount moédérée compared to previous years.


    January 2012: Temperatures below normal


    After the sudden arrival of cold temperatures in late December did not recover in January to be within the normal with a cold as possible in the first decade in the winter of 2009 so it will be one month winter with very cold days. Disturbances should bring the average rainfall in the northern half, with probably a few episodes in the snowy plain.

    February: softer


    The winter is expected to end quickly, not excluding some cold periods in the first half, but then, temperatures should return to the above average rainfall with a loss, especially in the southern half. March: dry and sweet (poor reliability in the spring, which may be colder than expected by the models studied).


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Tis like trying to climb mount everest.Really needs to continue with no major set backs to soften up that Polar Vortex.Perfect timing if it does indeed continue warming.
    pole30_nh.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    blackius wrote: »
    Here is a google translate of the meteo france outlook posted december third.

    ...

    Times more agitated with the return of ocean disturbances.


    You gotta love Google Translate, everything sounds like Yoda :D


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Morning Ireland: Holly flourishing in mild winter: Holly grower Joe Barry

    http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/1209/media-3136291.html#


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    And now for that madden guy again .........“Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with some deep and widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. Any required updates will be posted accordingly”
    I have stated since very early this year, that I expect December to feature below-average temperatures with widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK. I have also stated “across many parts of the UK” for a good reason, as I will explain.
    Weather Warning – Widespread snowfall and much colder temperatures
    Now although there is going to be some notable snow about in the early part of next week, as forecast on Exacta Weather on the 8th November 2011. I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures, at times within this period in the evenings. A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.
    Definition of a white Christmas “across many parts of the UK”
    A single snowflake must fall at any time during the twenty four hour period of Christmas day at a specified location. Snow already lying on the ground does not count as a white Christmas officially, and I say this as snow is likely to be lying on the ground in many locations on or around this period, if things develop as I expect them to over the coming weeks.
    December widespread snowfall “across many parts of the UK”
    I am not expecting December to be the most severe month of this meteorological winter, as I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February, and I have also never stated otherwise. I have also stated that there will be some periods of moderation at times and any areas further south are likely to see the best of these conditions.
    I am however expecting widespread and heavy snow across many parts of the UK in December, and although the regions I expect to be affected by the most frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls are Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West, North East, and Yorkshire. I am also expecting parts of the West and East Midlands, Wales, and the East to experience some notable and frequent heavy snowfalls in December too. Some moderate to heavy falls of snow are even likely at times across parts of London, South East, and the South West. This is why I have stated since earlier this year “across many parts of the
    UK in December”.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    AO dropping again
    184477.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,011 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Wait... so up means good ??? :confused:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Good if you like milder weather.

    A lower AO index allows for a weaker polar vortex and more chance of blocking


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Wait... so up means good ??? :confused:

    Higher index is bad , lower index is better , Negative index is best

    This is from a cold lovers perspective !


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Now on the bad news front 14 day forecast is showing a dip and then a proper jump back up again , this does not please me :(


    Unless the 14 day forecast can held in the same distain as a normal GFS FI chart .


    184479.png


    184478.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    NAO paints a slightly better picture ,

    184481.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Snow cover in southern and western US.
    184486.jpg


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,246 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Snow cover in southern and western US.....

    Soooo jealous!:eek:


This discussion has been closed.
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