Winter 2011/2012

pistolpetes11 · 02-12-2011 12:44am

C14N wrote: »

I wish I knew what all this weather talk was about

Is there still any chance of snow or should I give up at this stage?

There is a chance all the way out until the end of March some would say :rolleyes:

This is the first day of Winter , there is loads of fun to come of that I am sure !

pistolpetes11 · 02-12-2011 12:48am

jo06555 wrote: »

I'm assuming its Scandinavian high pressure ? I'm as much in the dark here as you I'm just hoping it is a sign of some oncoming snowy conditions soon maybe

A scandi High would allow cold weather to sink across our shores from an Easterly direction ,

Some what similar to this chart I think .

Su Campu · 02-12-2011 12:49am

Here's a multimodel blend of the GFS, GENS, ECMWF and BOM for the mentioned storm next Thursday. Stiff west-northwesterly winds, with some snow on hills in the northwest.

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 12:52am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

jo06555 wrote: »

I'm assuming its Scandinavian high pressure ? I'm as much in the dark here as you I'm just hoping it is a sign of some oncoming snowy conditions soon maybe

A scandi High would allow cold weather to sink across our shores from an Easterly direction ,

Some what similar to this chart I think .

[IMG]https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/181192/183407.png[/ If this set wad to happen it would be at least 3 weeks away but im thinking jan or feb is are best bet for this unless we get a jan type event like 1985[/img]

C14N · 02-12-2011 12:53am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

There is a chance all the way out until the end of March some would say :rolleyes:

This is the first day of Winter , there is loads of fun to come of that I am sure !

Well that depends who you are (always considered November the start of winter myself). I just really want a bit of snow for Christmas.

StormGazer.11 · 02-12-2011 12:57am

I know it's still very hard to tell guys seeing as the models aren't even really showing it but what do ye reckon the realistic possibilities of this Scandi high are? I'm just praying for the AO and NAO to plummet for some prolonged cold and some mood changing snow!! early Christmas present please

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 1:05am

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

I know it's still very hard to tell guys seeing as the models aren't even really showing it but what do ye reckon the realistic possibilities of this Scandi high are? I'm just praying for the AO and NAO to plummet for some prolonged cold and some mood changing snow!! early Christmas present please

I cant see the AO or NAO going below -1 this side of xmas the ao has more of a chance of gong very low in time the Nao less of a chance
The PDO is on the way up now too
But we may get lucky and have a 1984 85 type event where we get cold air from a Plus AO and NAO

davidsr20 · 02-12-2011 1:07am

mcriot29 wrote: »

I cant see the AO or NAO going below -1 this side of xmas the ao has more of a chance of gong very low in time the Nao less of a chance
The PDO is on the way up now too
But we may get lucky and have a 1984 85 type event where we get cold air from a Plus AO and NAO

What the hell is pdo,ao and nao?

snow ghost · 02-12-2011 1:22am

Saw this vid in the angling forum :eek: hopefully we'll only be seeing such scenes of watery-woe after mega snow melts in spring 2012:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fr9bY0_JB8

Bring on the white stuff, save the salmon.

pistolpetes11 · 02-12-2011 1:28am

More importantly ,

Whats more important to us ,

A negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) OR

A negative Arctic Oscillation ???

pistolpetes11 · 02-12-2011 1:31am

davidsr20 wrote: »

What the hell is pdo,ao and nao?

PDO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

AO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_oscillation

NAO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

Caff Caff · 02-12-2011 8:26am

Current temp 2dgrs c but real feel is -5...brrr...remained at 2 for majority of night and rose, slightly, to 3 but real feel was up and down from -1 to -6! Good aul air temps deceiving us

Caff Caff · 02-12-2011 8:26am

Ice ice baby...

StormGazer.11 · 02-12-2011 12:59pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

I cant see the AO or NAO going below -1 this side of xmas the ao has more of a chance of gong very low in time the Nao less of a chance
The PDO is on the way up now too
But we may get lucky and have a 1984 85 type event where we get cold air from a Plus AO and NAO

Ya fingers crossed that nothing will be able to stop the huge amount of cold air at the pole from seeping down to us.

h57xiucj2z946q · 02-12-2011 1:12pm

Seems to be spitting a small bit of slush in athlone.

only one · 02-12-2011 1:16pm

What was 1985 winter like? Anyone got a link to it?

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 1:16pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

More importantly ,

Whats more important to us ,

A negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) OR

A negative Arctic Oscillation ???

It would be the AO
NAO was neg last jan and feb but AO was not and it meant we had no snow once the AO goes below -2 we get colder air over us most times
Mark vogan has just done a update on the cold he thinks it will start from end dec into jan

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Weather-and-Climate-Through-The-Eyes-of-Mark-Vogan/368502778051

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 1:38pm

only one wrote: »

What was 1985 winter like? Anyone got a link to it?

Look here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winthist;sess=

Video here dublin. 85

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=/&gl=IE#/watch?v=PDv1ubaFA0E

only one · 02-12-2011 1:44pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

only one wrote: »

What was 1985 winter like? Anyone got a link to it?

Look here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winthist;sess=

Video here dublin. 85

http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=/&gl=IE#/watch?v=PDv1ubaFA0E

Thanks

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 3:55pm

The weather postman was on radio today he said a normal winter for ireland this year with little snow also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Id say he is going by the sunspots beefing up so less chance of the jet doing strange things
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

WolfeIRE · 02-12-2011 4:01pm

Unless the sunspot is doing the Siege of Ennis with the donkey in the barn, I doubt it very much he is basing his predictions on present or future levels of solar activity. He bases his predictions on the natural environment in his native Donegal, something that has been practised down through the ages and some would say with considerable accuracy.

I prefer the scientific approach myself but am always interested in what this gentleman has to say.

blackius · 02-12-2011 4:12pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

The weather postman was on radio today he said a normal winter for ireland this year with little snow also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Id say he is going by the sunspots beefing up so less chance of the jet doing strange things
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

The Donegal postman doesn't use sun spots lol.
He goes on signs of nature,like what the birds are doing,the animals,how many berries are on the holly etc etc

He has a book out where he talks about his auld timer ways of predicting the weather.

He was right last year probably because what was coming nature wanted to last a month so of course the birds were eating all the holly berries.
I am a believer myself in nature having it's signs.

It's no exact thing so for example,that postman may genuinely feel that no severe winter is ahead but you could still get a week of north easterlies and a few days with a few inches of snow which we'd all go mad about on here and find memorable...
Mr postmans prediction for an overall ordinary winter would still be right though if there was only 1 interlude like that as a week is a very short time inside 3 or 4 months.

WolfeIRE · 02-12-2011 4:24pm

oops...wrong thread

Pangea · 02-12-2011 6:23pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

I just listened to it on replay. He never said anything about the next few winters don't know where you got that from.

http://2fm.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=1%3A3129512%3A4678%3A02%2D12%2D2011%3A
Hes on there at around 1h:11mins.

Dave fanning was pretty much clueless with everything. I don't think he ever heard of Michael before and he had trouble understanding him, plus Dave didn't even know what a new moon was lol

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 6:36pm

Pangea wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

also said next few winters wont see much snow either
Bit silly for him to go as far as saying next few winters will be mild he reminds me of piers coming out with stupid predictions

I just listened to it on replay. He never said anything about the next few winters don't know where you got that from.

http://2fm.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=1%3A3129512%3A4678%3A02%2D12%2D2011%3A
Hes on there at around 1h:11mins.

Dave fanning was pretty much clueless with everything. I don't think he ever heard about Michael before and he had trouble understanding Michael, plus Dave didn't even know what a new moon was lol

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong
You can only predict weather 3 weeks ahead anyone who gets a long term forecast correct is just lucky

Pangea · 02-12-2011 7:07pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong

Sounds like rubbish to most scientific people, that doesn't mean its wrong.
What winter was that?

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 7:14pm

Pangea wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong

Sounds like rubbish to most scientific people, that doesn't mean its wrong.
What winter was that?

It was well before we had any of the cold winters and he was on saying it would be a very cold winter etc

Pangea · 02-12-2011 7:16pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

It was well before we had any of the cold winters and he was on saying it would be a very cold winter etc

So you don't have the date or a link.
Well I never heard him talking about Cold winters, and I have been seeing him in the local paper for the past 10-15 years.
He warned many times that heavy snow was coming and he was right about it on those occasions. I never heard him saying a very cold winter would come before the previous two, he warned about snow events yes.

snow ghost · 02-12-2011 7:24pm

mcriot29 wrote: »

He was also on newstalk today thats where he said about it
Sounds like rubbish to me he also predicted a very bad winter a few years ago and he was totally wrong
You can only predict weather 3 weeks ahead anyone who gets a long term forecast correct is just lucky

I find him and his traditional methods interesting.

A lot of the old folks around here make similar predictions based on nature's 'signs'. It's part of our heritage and culture and if nothing else it is a bit of craic.

I also don't believe for one minute he is a snake oil salesman trying to dupe people that he can predict the future nor fleece them. Unlike some spoofers out there.

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 7:29pm

It was years ago and in the local paper
You seem to know more about his forecasts and as you said he gets them correct so maybe his ways work
Id love to know what signs in nature he goes by etc

snow ghost · 02-12-2011 7:32pm

mcriot29,

I've heard him talk about foxs' behaviour and farm animals and I have to admit I have witnessed similar behaviour and the exact weather happening shortly afterwards.

mcriot29 · 02-12-2011 7:37pm

Its very intresting stuff esp if he does not use models or pdo etc just going by nature etc
I know in the early 1900s the farmers seem to predict snow etc well before it came a great grandfather of mine was said to be very good

Tindie · 02-12-2011 9:05pm

Winter maybe here sooner then we think!

Check this link out!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16011619
Posted today at Last updated at 17:16

That cheers me up little, long as we have taste of winter, i can for wait big freeze in Jan

pistolpetes11 · 02-12-2011 10:09pm

So whats the weather doing then ?

snow ghost · 02-12-2011 10:24pm

Su Campu wrote: »

What hurricane? There was no hurricane in England in 1987. Do we have to go through the whole misquoting argument again? There was a fierce windstorm alright, which the models had forecast heading further south than it did. It's a popular thing though to still insist on misquoting him, leaving out the rest of what he actually said, i.e. "but it is going to get mighty windy though...".

There is no argument, fierce wind storm is fine by me, there is no deep dark sinsiter motive to me calling it a hurricane, I simply thought that was what occured.

Have you a salient point to make regarding the substance of my post?

Su Campu · 02-12-2011 10:29pm

snow ghost wrote: »

There is no argument, fierce wind storm is fine by me, there is no deep dark sinsiter motive to me calling it a hurricane, I simply thought that was what occured.

Have you a salient point to make regarding the substance of my post?

That it's wrong to incorrectly use this misquote to say that it would be better to go with the fish than with Fish!

Anyway, I've moved all that discussion to the new animals thread, so let's all get back on topic here.

nacho libre · 02-12-2011 11:10pm

looking ahead, maybe with the stratosphere so cold it can only swing the other way eventually??

Could the polar vortex eventually move towards Canada without a major warming event in the stratosphere?, thereby allowing heights to rise in Scandinavia.

I think in the current setup we can definitely rule out a major Greenland high developing.

only one · 02-12-2011 11:16pm

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

homersimpson · 02-12-2011 11:29pm

I have Micheal's book and I have to say its an interesting read

konman · 02-12-2011 11:30pm

only one wrote: »

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

i have a lot of relations in the southeast and they had nearly 2 foot of snow at one stage last december. where are you located only one?

nacho libre · 02-12-2011 11:33pm

only one wrote: »

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

If M.T's forecast is correct, you'll maybe in business come January. In this current setup; of polar maritime air, the west and northwest are favoured for any snow that's going. Although any snow we get will be wet and fleeting(still any kind of snow, is better than no snow at all!)

only one · 02-12-2011 11:34pm

konman wrote: »

only one wrote: »

I just want snow in the south east this winter. Any bit of snow we get where I'm from is a snow flake on the flipping hills.

i have a lot of relations in the southeast and they had nearly 2 foot of snow at one stage last december. where are you located only one?

East cork west Waterford area. In a valley. We get the least of the snow

konman · 02-12-2011 11:42pm

only one wrote: »

East cork west Waterford area. In a valley. We get the least of the snow

thats very borderline southeast, parden the pun. that would explain alot

Pangea · 03-12-2011 3:59am

Snow fell in Cumbria, England today.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069125/Englands-snowfall-Cumbria-way-weekend.html

Newtown90 · 03-12-2011 10:28am

The forecast this morning is looking well for a good freeze and maybe a sprinkle of snow this week coming

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Lucreto · 03-12-2011 12:48pm

It looked on the weather last night they were reluctant to mention snow even met eireann didn't mention it.

Today they mention it for Ulster.

ShytePryde · 03-12-2011 12:50pm

http://www.planetski.eu/news/3292

Finally snowing in the alps.

WolfeIRE · 03-12-2011 1:51pm

NAO Ensembles showing a continuing downward trend post mid December. MTC's Winter forecast of a possible outbreak of very cold weather pre xmas and/or during xmas period as well as a colder January on track.

BEASTERLY · 03-12-2011 2:15pm

WolfeIRE wrote: »

NAO Ensembles showing a continuing downward trend post mid December. MTC's Winter forecast of a possible outbreak of very cold weather pre xmas and/or during xmas period as well as a colder January on track.

I dont think this is showing up on the model runs at all yet, any idea when they might start to pick up on this?

BEASTERLY · 03-12-2011 2:20pm

Actually look at the latest projections...:(

NAO:

AO:

Oh well there's always winter 12/13!:pac:

Winter 2011/2012

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