NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Billy86 · 31-10-2014 1:08am

€20 on Saints -0.5 and over 49.5 points at 9/5
€2.62 loose change on Kenny Stills first TD scorer at 16/1, for no good reason but the long odds.

padraig_f · 31-10-2014 1:11am

Not gonna hit +3.5 at this stage, so put 1 unit on the Panthers +3 @ 2.04.

eagle eye · 31-10-2014 1:18am

I don't get how people think the under is a good bet here. Neither of these teams D's do well against a balanced offense. The Saints have a good mix now that Ingram is back and Carolina have both Williams and Stewart back now which gives them a good mix. This game to me seems like it will go well over and maybe even end up on the sixties with the nice weather and no wind.

I'm on the over 49 and Saints -3 in a double.

skippymac6 · 31-10-2014 1:20am

Yeah I have to agree with Eagle Eye, although these defences had good showings last week I think ultimately they haven't been good this year so far. I'm going over 49 points and I'm taking Cam Newton to have a great game and Panthers +3. That said the Thursday night games haven't been that kind to me so far!

matthew8 · 31-10-2014 1:26am

Only picking them ATS and no thread so far, gone for Panthers +3.

padraig_f · 31-10-2014 1:27am

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't get how people think the under is a good bet here. Neither of these teams D's do well against a balanced offense. The Saints have a good mix now that Ingram is back and Carolina have both Williams and Stewart back now which gives them a good mix. This game to me seems like it will go well over and maybe even end up on the sixties with the nice weather and no wind.

I think part of it is that the Panthers are a run-oriented team when they have those guys back. If they do it well, it will eat clock and keep the Saints offense off the field.

kryogen · 31-10-2014 1:29am

matthew8 wrote: »

Only picking them ATS and no thread so far, gone for Panthers +3.

I won't be starting an ATS thread this week, didn't seem to be that much interest really but if one is started I will certainly contribute

skippymac6 · 31-10-2014 2:07am

skippymac6 wrote: »

Yeah I have to agree with Eagle Eye, although these defences had good showings last week I think ultimately they haven't been good this year so far. I'm going over 49 points and I'm taking Cam Newton to have a great game and Panthers +3. That said the Thursday night games haven't been that kind to me so far!

Ah 0-0 after the first quarter, not the result for the overs I was looking for! Looks like it will be a tight game. Both teams should have capitalised more on their opportunities so far

Hulk Hands · 31-10-2014 2:39am

Kharrell wrote: »

My 2c will mean nothing to most people here since I'm not a regular contributor. Sure, when I quizzed the regulars here a few weeks back over who maintains a proven winning record, no one chimed in for whatever people's reasons for not replying were. I wouldn't even say I am a lurker really. I just pop in once a week at most and read the a few of the most recent posts and leave, but the petty bickering which is what it
looks between some people is all a bit strange to put it politely.

Firstly apologies if I caused the bickering. On the winning records point, plenty of us have winning records on what we've posted this year. I haven't gone through it personally but im way ahead id say. It's completely irrelevant though as ive like 15-30 bets posted up, a miniscule sample size so my record means nothing. Reasoning and whether the price moves are much more important than results imo. Maybe i'll come along in 2 hrs when my unders bet tonight wins and proclaim myself a genius

Kharrell wrote: »

As for the part on you being ahead of the curve line movement wise, otherwise it being a failure, I don't agree with that whatsoever, but if you believe that and it works for you, fair play. I don't sweat over the line too much, unless there is something noticeable like a key injury or something along those lines. From my experience, people either over-complicate things or are lazy bettors lucking for that big hit by betting on parlays, accumulators and similar. There's a medium there, and the best cappers are in that medium zone. I went to Vegas earlier in the year, and became friends with a couple of highly regarded touts over there, and they'll say the same thing.

The odds movement thing is really more relevant to racing. But I do think it applies to sports also. Like how do you know you're getting value if the line doesnt move in your favour? Lines are so efficient these days that anything with a strong betfair/asian/pinnacle line at the off, the value has been squeezed to the hilt out of it. The exception of course being massive events like World Cup, Superbowl, Champs League knockouts etc, where public money is probably more influential than smart money. There's plenty of reasons why accounts are retricted these days but bar arbing, the no.1 reason is people consistently beating the starting price/line. That tells a story in itself

matthew8 · 31-10-2014 3:09am

If you're way ahead after 30 bets then it's not too small a sample size. If only making small percentage gain then it's too small but if someone's way ahead, even in early stages, it's solid evidence of profit making ability. The old binomial is something I use to try and see if someone could just be fluking it:

http://joemath.com/binomial/ (the second calc)

Basically the N is your total bets, p is average % chance of bets (for me it's .5 because I like standard hcaps), ending k is total bets and starting k is whatever number of victories would give you your total units. For me it's roughly N=30, p=.5, starting k=18 and ending k=30 (though it looks like the record will be worse after tonight) and the probability that I would have my record or better if the bets were randomly selected (ie probability of current profit if I had no expertise) is 18%, not nearly enough to be confident in saying I have expertise. Let's say I was +10 off even money bets instead though and the starting k was 20 then the chance of that record while fluking it would be 5%, so if someone was +10 off even money bets after 30 bets that's someone worth following for me as 5% is pretty unlikely. 5% is generally the cutoff point for me when deciding to follow somebody.

kryogen · 31-10-2014 10:18am

kryogen wrote: »

I like the Saints for a couple of reasons, though I hate to pick them on the road. The Panthers have won once since week two, the Saints are coming off a morale boosting win against the Packers. Jimmy Graham looks like he is getting back to his old self and that would be a big factor for the Saints putting up points, he adds so much to that offence. Thomas will probably still be out, but Ingram is coming off a huge day and the Panthers give up over 5 yards a carry so he may have some success again with his confidence up also. The Saints O line will be tested but it is one of the best in the business.

The weather is supposed to be pretty good, no wind to speak of or rain so no problems for Brees.

Personally, I would cap the Saints at 7 point favorites at a neutral site so allowing for homefield advantage Saints -2.5 still looks good to me. Im tempted by the unders due to the trends in matches between these two teams.

I have done a couple of bets on the game, the stakes blacked out as usual

Gone for an adventurous Saints -9 for a laugh The other ones are more serious though

3/3 Good start to the weekend, backed the Saints away and they covered! Surely a good sign for the weekend to come

UnitedIrishman · 01-11-2014 10:42pm

kryogen wrote: »

3/3 Good start to the weekend, backed the Saints away and they covered! Surely a good sign for the weekend to come

I officially hate the Saints. Backed this year against the Bucs, Browns and Falcons and couldn't cover on any occasion (and that's only this season - last season was much the same!). Then I convince myself out of backing them Thursday night. Bah!

kryogen · 01-11-2014 10:50pm

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

I officially hate the Saints. Backed this year against the Bucs, Browns and Falcons and couldn't cover on any occasion (and that's only this season - last season was much the same!). Then I convince myself out of backing them Thursday night. Bah!

Yeah, I have similar experiences with them, the Bears are my kryptonite this season.... I wouldn't have been shocked if the Saints had been beaten of course, just you make your reads and you go with them. Happy to be right on this one

padraig_f · 02-11-2014 3:10am

Did the lines this week (actual lines in brackets).

6pm
Bucs @ Browns -8 (-7)
Cardinals @ Cowboys -6.5 (-3)
Eagles @ Texans -2 (+1.5)
Jets @ Chiefs -8 (-9)
Jags @ Bengals -10 (-10.5)
Chargers @ Dolphins -2 (-2)
Redskins @ Vikings +2 (+0)

Likes: Cowboys -3, Texans +1.5 Redskins +0

9pm
Rams @ 49ers -10 (-10)
Broncos @ Patriots +4 (+3)
Raiders @ Seahawks -14 (-14)

Lean: Broncos -3

SNF
Ravens @ Steelers +1 (+2)

MNF
Colts @ Giants +6 (+3)

Like: Colts -3

padraig_f · 02-11-2014 3:32am

Cowboys -2.5 vs. Cardinals - 2 units
Texans money-line (2.06) vs. Eagles - 2 units
Redskins money-line (1.98) @ Vikings - 1.5 units

Broncos -3 @ Patriots - 1 unit

Colts -3 @ Giants - 1 unit

Balance: -6.2 units

skippymac6 · 02-11-2014 9:56am

Chargers +2.5 -- If they drop this one they have lost three straight and might be overtaken by Kansas City who play at home to the jets. I just feel Rivers will make enough plays to ultimately get them the win.
Cowboys -2.5 -- The Cardinals have been brilliant this year especially on defence where they dealt with the loss of key guys through injury or few agency and haven't missed a beat. Even if Romo isn't 100% I think that they Cowboys run game will set up a few scores and they'll get the job done.
Colts -3 -- The Giants need this game badly but they are banged up. Cruz is already out and JPP and Roders Cromarterie have done little or no practice this week. Iff JPP is out then Luck will have all kinda of time to throw and I can't see the Giants secondary being able to stop him, especially if DRC is out

Billy86 · 02-11-2014 12:09pm

Blake Bortles over/under line for passing yards @CIN today with Paddy is 330.5 yards. That's not a typo... THREE hundred and thirty point five yards. At 5/6 odds. Just saying...

EDIT: It's actually 10/11! I usually small ball bet for the most part to have something to cheer for in games I have no stake in, but I've got put €110 in this one. Must be an error in the website so take it while you can!

Guffy · 02-11-2014 12:49pm

Multiple small bets on this lads... I want to get to bookies before its gone :P

padraig_f · 02-11-2014 12:56pm

Billy86 wrote: »

Blake Bortles over/under line for passing yards @CIN today with Paddy is 330.5 yards. That's not a typo... THREE hundred and thirty point five yards. At 5/6 odds. Just saying...

EDIT: It's actually 10/11! I usually small ball bet for the most part to have something to cheer for in games I have no stake in, but I've got put €110 in this one. Must be an error in the website so take it while you can!

Down to 234.5 now

MattHelders · 02-11-2014 12:58pm

Bollix! Got 30 on it but was gonna go into the shop and throw another 100. Can't complain about free money though!

Billy86 · 02-11-2014 1:14pm

padraig_f wrote: »

Down to 234.5 now

Thank Christ I got my bet on asap so!

matthew8 · 02-11-2014 2:44pm

You have to wonder how things like that happen. Anyway, in addition to my Cincy, SD, NE and KC bets 1 unit on Seattle -13.5 at 1.98. Yes they're banged up, but considering home field is worth around 4 points to Seattle and they were 5.5 point favourites away to the Panthers, this line is saying that the Raiders are basically as good as the Panthers.

JaMarcusHustle · 02-11-2014 3:34pm

The over/under on Murray is 100.5 on Bet365. Reckon the Cowboys will use him heavily today with Romo out.

Billy86 · 02-11-2014 3:57pm

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

The over/under on Murray is 100.5 on Bet365. Reckon the Cowboys will use him heavily today with Romo out.

Same on Paddy. I am extremely tempted, but don't like lines above 70-75 on RTE, plus Arizona are tied best per carry against the run (3.3 per carry), will pack the box now and with Romo being injured all week will likely have been planning for a Murray heavy offense.

Worth keeping an eye on if a late line comes out on Weedon under 225 yards, though. He was very good in his drive last week.

matthew8 · 02-11-2014 4:12pm

1 unit on Cardinals to win 1.93.

And all the ATS picks for today on pinnacle handicaps:
Chargers +2.5
Bengals -10.5
Browns -6.5
Vikings -1.5
Chiefs -9.5
Cardinals -.5
49ers -9.5
Patriots +3
Seahawks -13.5
Steelers +1.5
Colts -3
Texans +1.5

JONJO THE MISER · 02-11-2014 6:43pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Yeah, my accounts are all restricted or closed because im losing money :rolleyes:

Have you read over the last 2 pages? How am i not capping lines myself when I posted up lines last week before a single bookie, US based or UK had it priced up? How about you release your lines next Sunday night for the following week when you're once again having a mug bet on the late TV game, after all the midweek value is gone?

To a novice you probably seem like you know what you're talking about but to someone experienced, its actually ridiculous what complete and utter crap you're coming out with week on week. Keep making 6-1 teams 3 point favs at home to 2-5 teams and see where it gets you. Like I said already, id have let it go if you weren't spouting nonsense about being 'born' with it and smarter than everyone else. Post up your betslips from now on bigshot. The first man in history to make a living from Pinnacle (sharpest traders in the business)

Where to start, you should keep backing horses, id say you make a fortune on them:rolleyes:
What's you ROI on them.
You dont have a clue if you think people dont make money from Pinnacle, i make money week in week out this time of year, id love to see have you made profit last few weeks, i highly doubt it.
Anyway my account speaks for itself simply as that.
Have a good evening now.

JONJO THE MISER · 02-11-2014 6:46pm

Tonights bets.

Jacksonville VS Cincinnati over 43 at 1.854 for 5 Pts.

Tampa vs Clevland over 44 at 1.934 for 3 Pts.

KC-2.5 and over 34 at 5/6 for 4 Pts.

Billy86 · 02-11-2014 6:57pm

Check out the Pats/Broncos under for points (51), Manning passing yards (315 I think) and Brady (285 I think) - there's a blizzard going on there!

Right now I have:
€110 on Bortles under 330.5 passing yards at 5/6
€18 on Bridgewater over 235.5 passing yards at 5/6
€18 on Vick over 194.5 passing yards at 4/5
€10 free bet treble on Vick/Bridgewater and Rivers (254.5 yards) at 5.05/1

eagle eye · 02-11-2014 7:04pm

I've a treble on the three big handicaps, thats Bengals -10.5, Chiefs -8.5 and 49ers -10.5, they just all look generous to me.

I did a massive accum anytime td scorer bet on Gronk, Beast-mode, Foster, Murray, Charles, Morris, Miller and AJ Green.

Later, but I'm waiting for the weather, I currently intend to go on the over and Patriots +3.

Oh and DeMarco Murray to score two tds or more @ 4/1 seems like the value bet of the night to me.

JONJO THE MISER · 02-11-2014 10:22pm

Seattle vs Oakland over 44 at 1.970 for max 5 Pts.

skippymac6 · 02-11-2014 10:36pm

skippymac6 wrote: »

Chargers +2.5 -- If they drop this one they have lost three straight and might be overtaken by Kansas City who play at home to the jets. I just feel Rivers will make enough plays to ultimately get them the win.
Cowboys -2.5 -- The Cardinals have been brilliant this year especially on defence where they dealt with the loss of key guys through injury or few agency and haven't missed a beat. Even if Romo isn't 100% I think that they Cowboys run game will set up a few scores and they'll get the job done.
Colts -3 -- The Giants need this game badly but they are banged up. Cruz is already out and JPP and Roders Cromarterie have done little or no practice this week. Iff JPP is out then Luck will have all kinda of time to throw and I can't see the Giants secondary being able to stop him, especially if DRC is out

Well the less said about that the better. The chargers were completely out played and just got mauled. After the cowboys went 10-0 up they have up 28 unanswered points and just looked terrible when Weedan was asked to pass it. They've got a great running game but if Romo isn't there they'll struggle.

Billy86 · 02-11-2014 11:23pm

Billy86 wrote: »

Check out the Pats/Broncos under for points (51), Manning passing yards (315 I think) and Brady (285 I think) - there's a blizzard going on there!

Right now I have:
€110 on Bortles under 330.5 passing yards at 5/6
€18 on Bridgewater over 235.5 passing yards at 5/6
€18 on Vick over 194.5 passing yards at 4/5
€10 free bet treble on Vick/Bridgewater and Rivers (254.5 yards) at 5.05/1

I had to pop over to the auld fellas for dinner but obviously Bortles got close. Rivers got pulled disappointingly but understandably, buy I was disgusted to see Vick what I thought was pulled... only to find out when a friend texted me that he was injured, came back in and finished on 196 yards!

Also I see all is fine for Broncos/Pats conditions. Missed the chance to hit the unders before Paddy paid my bets, blessing in disguise I guess!

Billy86 · 02-11-2014 11:42pm

Small €10 bet on the Rams to win at 5/2. Not holding my breath but their defensive line is dominating and in a tied game it's tough not to take those odds, especially if they get Kaepernick more frustrated.

Billy86 · 03-11-2014 12:05am

€11 on Raiders/Seahawks to be over 47.5 points to cover the bet above - seems a really low total for 27 first half points, especially if the Seahawks get a bigger lead and take a foot off in the fourth quarter.

upandcumming · 03-11-2014 1:16am

Janey... 49ers.

matthew8 · 03-11-2014 1:39am

+4.85 with 41 staked.

Billy86 · 03-11-2014 2:05am

Billy86 wrote: »

€11 on Raiders/Seahawks to be over 47.5 points to cover the bet above - seems a really low total for 27 first half points, especially if the Seahawks get a bigger lead and take a foot off in the fourth quarter.

Hit on both of them... unbelievable stand from the Rams!

JONJO THE MISER · 03-11-2014 2:07am

Going with Baltimore at 2.20 for 2 pts.

Billy86 · 03-11-2014 2:24am

€10 on Ravens +1.5 and over 47.5 total points @ 23/10.
€12 on Forsett to rush for over 73.5 yards @ 5/6.

2smiggy · 03-11-2014 10:54am

had cardinals, patriots and steelers, waiting on the giants. cash out for €197 or let it ride for €528 for a stake of €24.68 ?

Gregk961 · 03-11-2014 10:59pm

2smiggy wrote: »

had cardinals, patriots and steelers, waiting on the giants. cash out for €197 or let it ride for €528 for a stake of €24.68 ?

Hard call, 197 is undervaluing your bet by about €25 though. Id be quite happy with getting nearly 200 out of a 25 stake however, even if the giants go on and win.

matthew8 · 04-11-2014 12:06am

If you're going to cash out now you shouldn't have even put them in your accumulator. Got to stick it out for me.

Billy86 · 04-11-2014 12:29am

This dilemma is exactly why I don't like doing accumulators that include TNF, SNF or MNF games - too much second guessing and waiting if the earlier ones come off. I prefer to just use the 6/9pm games on Sunday for them and put a portion of the winnings on the next day.

Over/under is at 50 tonight, really think the Colts should win this but I never like betting against a team coming off a bye week. I am kind of tempted to take the over and Andre Williams to go over 63.5 yards with Rashad Jennings out but have a bad feeling I would get stuck screwed via RB-by-committee like last night (why the hell did the Ravens not give the ball to Forsett more, by the way? Really irritating since I had the over on him, and he was playing pretty well too).

JONJO THE MISER · 04-11-2014 12:56am

On NY Giants +3 at 2.0 for 3 Pts.
Good luck all.

kryogen · 04-11-2014 1:36am

Been on the Colts all week, waiting on them for a treble but may have a little cover dart on the Giants, cause I hate them and they screw me lots.

Billy86 · 04-11-2014 1:40am

€30 for the over on 50 points.

2smiggy · 04-11-2014 1:40am

Just cashed out, but will put 50 back on the giants. Know I'm losing bit overall, but still be up a bit. I have had about 5 weeks of similar bets with 1 team losing. Just had the luxury of a cash out this week

2smiggy · 04-11-2014 1:47am

Took giants plus memphis 50 to return 184.

kryogen · 04-11-2014 2:04am

After taking one last look at it, I am still happy with my Colts bet, and have also back the over 50 line.

Not going to do the cover bet, actually put more on the Colts

I may regret it, but it is what it is

Billy86 · 04-11-2014 2:50am

Popped €10 on Colts -3 at kickoff... had completely forgotten about Cruz, would've taken 51.5 points and Colts -2.5 at 12/5 otherwise!

NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

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