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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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    #2132
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    The NAO is a measurement, not a driver. North Atlantic blocking will result in a negative NAO pattern. The state of the NAO is only an indicator of current conditions.

    Do they use the GFS Ensembles to forecast NAO? If so they're as FI as anything else :D


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    #2133
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    IMT wise, yesterday's daily mean of 0.6c was the coolest mean temp of 2012 after the -0.3c on 2nd Feb last and equal to that of the 1st Feb. This made yesterday's reading the joint 2nd lowest of 2012 so far.

    Data from met.ie.

    230827.PNG


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    #2134
    tresb26
    Registered Users Posts: 15 ✭tresb26


    Where can you get MT's forecasts?


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    #2135
    DominoDub
    Registered Users Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub


    tresb26 wrote: »
    Where can you get MT's forecasts?

    Sticky Link at top of forum page

    Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=68


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    #2136
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Said MT seems to be hinting at more interesting times ahead in today's bulletin - mention of possible easterly in 10 or so day's time.....


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    #2137
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,822 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Said MT seems to be hinting at more interesting times ahead in today's bulletin - mention of possible easterly in 10 or so day's time.....

    Yet, UK Met have backed off in the severity of their monthly outlook (I know it wasnt that severe to begin with) and altered the prevailing wind direction for the period

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Dec 2012 to Thursday 13 Dec 2012:
    Low pressure will probably remain across or close to the British Isles through much of the forecast period. As a result, the weather looks likely to stay rather unsettled and cold during the first half of December. Showers or longer spells of rain will affect many areas with a risk of some heavy rain in places. Snow is probable over high ground, especially in the north, and it may fall to lower levels at times. It will be windy at times with a chance of gales in exposed western and southwestern areas. As the wind will mainly be from the north or northwest, temperatures will be generally rather cold, with some frosty nights likely, although there may be some milder weather in the south for a time.

    UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2012 to Saturday 29 Dec 2012:
    Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.

    Issued at: 0400 on Fri 30 Nov 2012


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    #2138
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Larbre34 wrote: »
    Yet, UK Met have backed off in the severity of their monthly outlook (I know it wasnt that severe to begin with) and altered the prevailing wind direction for the period

    UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Dec 2012 to Thursday 13 Dec 2012:
    Low pressure will probably remain across or close to the British Isles through much of the forecast period. As a result, the weather looks likely to stay rather unsettled and cold during the first half of December. Showers or longer spells of rain will affect many areas with a risk of some heavy rain in places. Snow is probable over high ground, especially in the north, and it may fall to lower levels at times. It will be windy at times with a chance of gales in exposed western and southwestern areas. As the wind will mainly be from the north or northwest, temperatures will be generally rather cold, with some frosty nights likely, although there may be some milder weather in the south for a time.

    UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2012 to Saturday 29 Dec 2012:
    Temperatures by both day and night are most likely to be below average during this period, with a greater incidence of overnight frost and, at times, fog or freezing fog. The signal for rain and snowfall amounts during this period shows a high degree of uncertainty, however, on balance, slightly drier conditions compared to average are favoured for most of the UK. Even though there is a drier-than-average signal for much of the UK, where precipitation does occur, there is a greater chance that it will fall as snow compared to normal.

    Issued at: 0400 on Fri 30 Nov 2012

    Seems pretty good to me as in regards to cold/snow. They have to keep the forecast grounded


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    #2139
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    Seen that in the sun... Surly they can't no this early if it will or won't


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    #2140
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    FI has being throwing up some interesting scenarios on the last few GFS runs with some very nice eye candy at the end of todays runs- 1947 esque.

    18z GFS at +240hrs-

    a8upa4e5.jpg

    And then todays 06z at the end>

    ygu2usu4.jpg


    AO looks like staying negative-

    ezuhyret.jpg

    NAO a bit more uncertain but looks like going negative-

    a7a8yjuj.jpg

    Decent warming at 30hpa level is forecast-

    5u7y9yma.jpg

    Nice NAEFS mean at +120hrs-

    y4ataja5.jpg

    ECM ensembles are very cold for De Bilt-

    nasaty6a.jpg

    EPV Flux is forecast to direct at the pole, as far as I know this usually causes the polar vortex to self destruct if it is sustained for long enough- it is only a forecast for the minute but is definitley one to watch.

    4emy5a4u.jpg


    Outlook is quite uncertain but Cold and potentially snowy weather is more likely as we reach mid to late December in my opinion.




    Dan :)


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    #2141
    Jaffusmaximus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 304 ✭✭Jaffusmaximus


    Very interesting things happening on the models yet very quite here. Has anyone thoughts on the hype about FI showing a considerable cold period ahead and also after all the talk of a more milder set up we are looking at another trip into to low digit temps. The fact still stands that with a PV that has been put through the shredder so nothing can be taken for certain especially another mild December.


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    #2142
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    I find the charts enthralling but I'm working off my own vague stats when I say I've seen maybe 10 periods in the last 3 years where I thought I'd see snow after following FI charts. In reality, I've seen less than 5 heavy snow falls in my lifetime.

    Based on pure sequencing of snow events, I'm not expecting anything for another 2 to 3 years minimum.


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    #2143
    Eastcoastryan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 197 ✭✭Eastcoastryan


    Trotter wrote: »
    I find the charts enthralling but I'm working off my own vague stats when I say I've seen maybe 10 periods in the last 3 years where I thought I'd see snow after following FI charts. In reality, I've seen less than 5 heavy snow falls in my lifetime.

    Based on pure sequencing of snow events, I'm not expecting anything for another 2 to 3 years minimum.

    Were 2 of those 5 in the past 3 years?


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    #2144
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Eastcoastryan wrote: »
    Were 2 of those 5 in the past 3 years?

    Im counting Nov 10 and Feb 11 as one period of snowy weather but beyond that I can't really remember more than 4. I might be totally off but Im just saying from memory I don't recall getting snow any more often than maybe once in 4 or 5 years.


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    #2145
    Eastcoastryan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 197 ✭✭Eastcoastryan


    HellFireClub wrote: »
    I'm kind of on the same page as you, I'm just not "feeling" it!

    Would this set up not bring anything Wintry? It's only 4 days out too!!

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=84&code=0&mode=0


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    #2146
    jimmy.d
    Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    looking at the charts dew point for wed morn down to -2, dam line 524, north winds, -2 temps could be snow for some east coast but -5 uppers lets it down can someone have a look at this only learning more than likely worng


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    #2147
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    jimmy.d wrote: »
    looking at the charts dew point for wed morn down to -2, dam line 524, north winds, -2 temps could be snow for some east coast but -5 uppers lets it down can someone have a look at this only learning more than likely worng

    I presume you mean the 18z GFS charts? If so there nothing really on for the east coast. The wind direction is from the N/NW so any showers would be more likely in the North/NW. And they'd be unlikely to penetrate very far inland.

    For the N/NW snow potential the uppers/dam line/dp are ok but the air temp isn't great and when taking into account the long track of the cold air across the ocean (which warms the lower layers) I'd say wet snow showers/sleet at best and snow on high ground.

    (I'm open for criticism and correction on this!)


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    #2148
    jimmy.d
    Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭jimmy.d


    Rougies wrote: »

    I presume you mean the 18z GFS charts? If so there nothing really on for the east coast. The wind direction is from the N/NW so any showers would be more likely in the North/NW. And they'd be unlikely to penetrate very far inland.

    For the N/NW snow potential the uppers/dam line/dp are ok but the air temp isn't great and when taking into account the long track of the cold air across the ocean (which warms the lower layers) I'd say wet snow showers/sleet at best and snow on high ground.

    (I'm open for criticism and correction on this!)
    No the 06 z and 09 thanks


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    #2149
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Things looking very interesting now for the UK, even as early as Thursday with a potential channel low.

    For Ireland, meh output....nothing to cold, pressure to high mostly, and the really cold uppers refuse to make their way to our shores from the UK.

    All up in the air still anyway, but fingers crossed if cold does come about, we're not left on the outside of it, again.


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    #2150
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Models this morning are very poor even in FI. GFs, UKMO, ECMWF... The trend is certainly looking to a chilly or nippy December but nothing that will bring the white stuff to lower ground. There needs to be a radical shift in the next few runs but I still think this change will happen, gradually, as we approach Christmas. It is looking more like late December-eary January for snowy potential to hit the east coast of Ireland but we will have to suffer a few more drab model runs. watch that trend!


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    #2151
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    Models this morning are very poor even in FI. GFs, UKMO, ECMWF... The trend is certainly looking to a chilly or nippy December but nothing that will bring the white stuff to lower ground. There needs to be a radical shift in the next few runs but I still think this change will happen, gradually, as we approach Christmas. It is looking more like late December-eary January for snowy potential to hit the east coast of Ireland but we will have to suffer a few more drab model runs. watch that trend!

    Output is brilliant, not very poor. Unless you are looking for mild weather that is.

    THIS is poor-

    sy5amyry.jpg

    mugajaje.jpg

    THIS is most defintley not-

    8ege7u5e.jpg

    We have a split vortex, southerly tracking jet and numerous other factors in our favour, and these are only going to get better with the current strat forecasts. EPV is still meant to be directed poleward at day 7 ish in todays update and this will cause the polar vortex to shred from its current split position. This should increase northern blocking and thus our chances of a very cold pattern.

    UK met are expecting a slightly milder blip before a firmer scandinavian block establishes with an easterly flow over the UK and with fronts attacking from the south or south west- This is from Ian Ferguson.




    Dan :)


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    #2152
    Caff Caff
    Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    HellFireClub wrote: »
    Nope, I've decided that the weather so far this winter isn't the kind of weather that I associate with snow!

    Wow... what a comment! I agree with Blizzard on this one... I've said this all along that the potential is there but we have to ride the rollercoaster closer to the end of December. The model trends in November were a delight to view and now we have models that are in a state of flux where we have interesting synoptics but potential for snow is poor for the coming week or two... Which we can all see and MT and many others have forecast also. So... Hellfire, to state that SO FAR THIS WINTER (two days in) that you predict no snow is a tad on the side of ridiculous. Do keep in mind, when I say snow I do not mean 2010 snow...who could predict that every time... but I do mean snowflakes to fall without any idicatiin of accumulation. It is a potential based on trends over months...not 2days!


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    #2153
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    KEEP IT ON TOPIC PLEASE, SPECULATION GOES IN THE RAMPING THREAD, THIS IS A MODEL/TECHNICAL DISCUSSION THREAD ONLY (FOR AND AGAINST COLD WEATHER)

    IF YOU HAVE NOTHING MODEL OR TECHNICAL RELATED TO SAY DONT POST IN HERE , LAST WARNING ON THIS


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    #2154
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    How anybody can despair when you have this sort of stuff showing at t180 is beyond me...

    gfsnh-0-180_xtc6.png

    Of course the above chart is subject to change, FI seem to be 96 hours recently, so I wouldn't be getting excited. But there is certainly more than a hint of hope of something wintry on the way!


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    #2155
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Agree with Beasterly. I actually find it quite silly that because of the winters of 2009 and 2010, nearly everything on the models is scoffed at since and compared to those winters. Seriously, I barely knew what lying snow looked like before 2009! Before '09, a sign of any sort of northern blocking even at +384 would have sent weather forums into a tizzy. Now, people almost look at charts with arrogance, "oh Greenland blocking laa di da". Can't people not be genuinely excited at the prospect of some cold weather? Sure it's not guaranteed but the trend is your friend!

    It's Christmas people, lighten up and enjoy the potential in the charts at the moment, whether it be +5 or +300!

    :)

    Ps; nice Gfs 12z run from +100 onwards, encouraging signs!


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    #2156
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    How anybody can despair when you have this sort of stuff showing at t180 is beyond me...

    gfsnh-0-180_xtc6.png

    Of course the above chart is subject to change, FI seem to be 96 hours recently, so I wouldn't be getting excited. But there is certainly more than a hint of hope of something wintry on the way!

    Certainly a great chart Beasterly! , Snow showers nearly a certainty in many areas if that was to become reality ! ...But maybe just still a bit for FI?

    I've been concentrating on just the next five days ahead as beyond that lies the fact of slight changes becoming a disaster...
    But positive trend none the less! :)

    ANyhow .... looks to be a brief mild spell 2moro and then back to the same cool spell as of late with increasing signs of high ground snow in the N & E , but not locally confined to...come midweek , hopefully this chart will cooperate nicely with a planned photo/ road trip :)

    231096.png

    Wet Bulb temps also in the low single digits will help snowfall above 500m :)



    EDIT : John ICY....


    i dunno about you but....


    LxLl7.gif


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    #2157
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    I'm not hung up on the details of model output past 120 hours either. What I'm taking from output past that recently is a recurrent trend, negative AO with the possibility of height rises in to our immediate North/Scandi/Svalbard/Geenland, you can't ask for much more than that at this stage. Details will sort themselves out within the reliable timeframe if it the trend survives till then!


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    #2158
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    BBC weather for the week ahead http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20573347


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    #2159
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Yr.No, the Norwegian Met spinoff ( I assume based on this Oslo Hirlam model I hear of) hardly showing any sub zeros out to Tuesday week.

    http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/Dublin/long.html

    also shows the worst of the current Scandinavian cold lasting until Tuesday and then jumping around 10c up into low value minuses for the following week.

    http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Oslo/Oslo/Oslo/long.html

    Even TROMSO is not forecast to have a notably cold snap out to mid month.

    http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Troms/Troms%C3%B8/Troms%C3%B8/long.html

    and neither is Iceland

    http://www.yr.no/place/Iceland/Capital_Region/Reykjavik/long.html


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    #2160
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Well we have agreement on a possible northerly...GFS and ECM at 168 hrs are very similar...
    edit:sorry should have posted this on the other thread


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    #2161
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Those charts look nice after 192+ Not too say they look bad for -192hrs. First week of winter and we have had a few frosty mornings. Someone pointed out that temps are below average.
    snow coverage 2010
    ims2010335.gif


    Snow coverage 2011
    ims2011335.gif

    snow coverage 2012
    ims2012336.gif

    We are not going to beat 2010 any time soon. Maybe not even in our life time will winter start so cold again. But we are looking good this year for a few weeks of cold. Look at Scandi, it's just ready to share with us. A loaded gun pointing our way.


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