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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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    #2102
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    DanRu wrote: »
    Excellent run from the GFS 6Z :D

    Not really. It has us in a cool W, occasionally NW, flow with rain or heavy showers (some of which will be wintry on high ground). It is in a word 'horrible' if you are looking for signs of cold weather reappearing in the near future. It is cool zonal all the way into mid December.

    While cold is becoming more entrenched over northern Europe, the building blocks are just not in place to put Ireland under a NE/E setup during the coming 7-10 days.


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    #2103
    DanRu
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭DanRu


    True, I was just looking at the cold building over N Europe. I never seen Ireland getting any large falls of knickers out of a Northerly flow , waiting for the beast from the East!


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    #2104
    Jostef
    Registered Users Posts: 31 ✭Jostef


    Wolfe_IRE wrote: »
    Not really. It has us in a cool W, occasionally NW, flow with rain or heavy showers (some of which will be wintry on high ground). It is in a word 'horrible' if you are looking for signs of cold weather reappearing in the near future. It is cool zonal all the way into mid December.

    While cold is becoming more entrenched over northern Europe, the building blocks are just not in place to put Ireland under a NE/E setup during the coming 7-10 days.

    Just curious Wolfe....how can you say with any certainty that it will be cool zonal all the way into mid December when it has been said time and time again that the models are only accurate up to 96 hours? We're still in November afterall. Surely FI must apply to rubbish weather as well as the good snowy variety.


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    #2105
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    It looks that way on all computer models, Jostef. You are correct about FI but the chances of a reversal to severe cold in the next 7-10 days from what is being shown now is unlikely. Usually when someone shows a chart from FI, they show one chart from one model. All charts from all models are presently showing a cool zonal setup. There will be 12-24hr blasts of cold weather in between but there is no sign of any extended cold in the next 7-10 days


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    #2106
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Jostef wrote: »
    Just curious Wolfe....how can you say with any certainty that it will be cool zonal all the way into mid December when it has been said time and time again that the models are only accurate up to 96 hours? We're still in November afterall. Surely FI must apply to rubbish weather as well as the good snowy variety.

    I think he is just commenting on what the GFS run shows.


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    #2107
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    well I wouldn't call the flow zonal.

    Meridional flow around the Northern hemisphere looks evident with some exaggerated troughs and ridges.


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    #2108
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    NAO in positive mode is not conducive to a block on the atlantic flows and does not look like building a block over the next 7-10 days. So I entirely agree with Wolfie on that timescale. Normal service for 7-10 days.

    We also see a more positive than was forecast signal meaning that the models are underestimating the positivity in the positivity over the last 48 hours or so. See the 7 day forecast/outturn divergence. :)

    nao.sprd2.gif


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    #2109
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    No, I'm not Maq. Why do you presume that?

    For what it's worth, The GFS is a horrid run Maq
    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=250&ext=1&y=40&run=6&runpara=0

    Other models. None GFS.

    ECM, JMA, GEM, UKMO

    J192-21_jvl4.GIF
    UW96-21_qlq4.GIF
    gem-0-240_her5.png
    ECM0-240_tmp5.GIF


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    #2110
    Jostef
    Registered Users Posts: 31 ✭Jostef


    Wolfe_IRE wrote: »
    It looks that way on all computer models, Jostef. You are correct about FI but the chances of a reversal to severe cold in the next 7-10 days from what is being shown now is unlikely. Usually when someone shows a chart from FI, they show one chart from one model. All charts from all models are presently showing a cool zonal setup. There will be 12-24hr blasts of cold weather in between but there is no sign of any extended cold in the next 7-10 days

    I hear what you're saying, but the GFS, ECMF and UKMO runs from a week or so ago were all in full agreement on some tastey blocking for our current time frame......but unfortunately we got bupkis! So bearing this in mind, is it even slightly possible that the crud that's showing on the models at the moment could flip in the happy direction within the next couple of weeks?


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    #2111
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Jostef wrote: »
    but unfortunately we got bupkis!
    Mmmm Bupkis, tashty!
    So bearing this in mind, is it even slightly possible that the crud that's showing on the models at the moment could flip in the happy direction within the next couple of weeks?
    Look at the NAO outturn....are the models a modelling ????


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    #2112
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    Jostef wrote: »
    I hear what you're saying, but the GFS, ECMF and UKMO runs from a week or so ago were all in full agreement on some tastey blocking for our current time frame......but unfortunately we got bupkis! So bearing this in mind, is it even slightly possible that the crud that's showing on the models at the moment could flip in the happy direction within the next couple of weeks?
    I only recall the GFS consistently giving us a strong easterly/northeasterly feed. The others hinted at it but did not show the blocking to be as effective as what was shown on the GFS. The odds were stacked in favour of a relatively short cold spell as a result.


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    #2113
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    Redsunset wrote: »
    well I wouldn't call the flow zonal.

    Meridional flow around the Northern hemisphere looks evident with some exaggerated troughs and ridges.

    Meridional flow is south to north or north to south. this is pretty much nw to se or w to e, and therefore i would categorise it as cool zonal. Very similar to last winter.


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    #2114
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I understand that but I'm taking the Northern hemisphere as a whole.


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    #2115
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Redsunset wrote: »
    well I wouldn't call the flow zonal.

    Meridional flow around the Northern hemisphere looks evident with some exaggerated troughs and ridges.

    Not so sure about that Red, The outlook for the NH looks fairly Zonal overall, if a little more slack than what you would expect for the time of year.
    230686.PNG


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    #2116
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    Redsunset wrote: »
    I understand that but I'm taking the Northern hemisphere as a whole.
    Fair enough. I'm talking about Ireland.


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    #2117
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Ok agree to disagree. Not raging zonal by any means.


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    #2118
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Wolfe_IRE wrote: »
    No, I'm not Maq. Why do you presume that?

    No, what I mean was, you were talking about what the model is showing for up to mid-December, not 'this is what the weather will be in mid-December', because nobody knows that. Just look at what the models thought was supposed to happen this weekend. FI is useless apart for entertaining value.


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    #2119
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Whether it's down to splitting hairs or not, it is more zonal than meridional. The best we look to be getting in the strat is a temporary burglar-mask partial split before it regathers itself in around a week's time. We had a brief flirt with cold, and some higher ground will still get some maybe on Monday night, but to be honest it's just more of the same no matter what model you look at.

    ecmwf30f96.gif


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    #2120
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Whether it's down to splitting hairs or not, it is more zonal than meridional. The best we look to be getting in the strat is a temporary burglar-mask partial split before it regathers itself in around a week's time. We had a brief flirt with cold, and some higher ground will still get some maybe on Monday night, but to be honest it's just more of the same no matter what model you look at.

    ecmwf30f96.gif


    Hi Su,


    What are your thoughts on the wave 1 and wave 2 activity that is forecast?

    Also interesting zonal winds at 30hpa and 10hpa are looking like there on the decline.





    Dan :)


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    #2121
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Could Ireland be in cool Zonal flow and the UK in a Meridional pattern

    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    12Z EC ENS clusters beyond the 10th have a very meridional pattern with high pressure influential in some interesting positions.


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    #2122
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Could Ireland be in cool Zonal flow and the UK in a Meridional pattern

    Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
    12Z EC ENS clusters beyond the 10th have a very meridional pattern with high pressure influential in some interesting positions.

    That's 12 days time so it could end up that way, Pete. The discussion we had was about the coming 7-10 days.


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    #2123
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    And the models have lost their handle on the NAO over the next 7 days. It has just gone a netch positive and is trending higher and faster to there than the models showed on the last few days runs. Lets see if the models 'catch up' with reality over the next 2 runs.


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    #2124
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    The models past 144 are varying so much they might aswell not bother. GFS has a euro high building and blocking off that sub tropical mess from hitting UK and Ireland.


    I can see the models throwing out another round of possible cold over the weekend for next week, but then quickly dropping it. But as always it will be 196+ The hype will begin

    Look at the last run of the GFS, like last years big freeze. Pressure is not as high or as further north. Nice to look at all the same. No use for us tho :)

    12121506_2906.gif


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    #2125
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    And the models have lost their handle on the NAO over the next 7 days. It has just gone a netch positive and is trending higher and faster to there than the models showed on the last few days runs. Lets see if the models 'catch up' with reality over the next 2 runs.
    :confused:

    230777.png


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    #2126
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Just posting a friendly reminder in all winter-related threads that the

    Third Annual Winter Forecast Contest

    is open for entries but late penalties will apply starting Sunday 2nd December.

    This is available in a separate thread on the weather forum. Thanks.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056808656

    Note also that the Monthly forecast contest for December is open, with the same deadline, and for 2013 we have added a third form of competition to our existing annual contests, namely seasonal contests which will run from Dec 2012 to Nov 2013 in the four traditional seasons, and this will also produce an annual champion. See the thread for details (which are posted today rather than in the original post).


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    #2127
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    Just posting a friendly reminder in all winter-related threads that the

    Third Annual Winter Forecast Contest

    is open for entries but late penalties will apply starting Sunday 2nd December.

    This is available in a separate thread on the weather forum. Thanks.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056808656

    Note also that the Monthly forecast contest for December is open, with the same deadline, and for 2013 we have added a third form of competition to our existing annual contests, namely seasonal contests which will run from Dec 2012 to Nov 2013 in the four traditional seasons, and this will also produce an annual champion. See the thread for details (which are posted today rather than in the original post).
    Mt how come u never post in discussion treads it would be nice to see some of ur input on what's ahead!


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    #2128
    Wolfe_IRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 309 ✭✭Wolfe_IRE


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Mt how come u never post in discussion treads it would be nice to see some of ur input on what's ahead!

    He posts a detailed long range outlook every day.

    Anyway, I would fear for his safety in here. :P


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    #2129
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    NAO in positive mode is not conducive to a block on the atlantic flows and does not look like building a block over the next 7-10 days. So I entirely agree with Wolfie on that timescale. Normal service for 7-10 days.

    The NAO is a measurement, not a driver. North Atlantic blocking will result in a negative NAO pattern. The state of the NAO is only an indicator of current conditions.


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    #2130
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Mt how come u never post in discussion treads it would be nice to see some of ur input on what's ahead!

    There isn't a whole lot to discuss at the moment. It's looking fairly uninteresting in the short and medium term.


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    #2131
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,782 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Mt how come u never post in discussion treads it would be nice to see some of ur input on what's ahead!

    MT is like the (sensible) parent who minds the coats and bags while the kids are on the rollercoaster! :)

    Usually when MT posts there is the potential of something actually happening.


This discussion has been closed.
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