Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

hucklebuck · 21-11-2011 11:17pm #1

I was wondering what horse you think represents the best value in the ante post markets for Cheltenham?

For me it's Samain but I am not sure where he is going, that aside Denman could be well worth an each way smash given the training masterstroke on Kauto.

Huntey · 21-11-2011 11:24pm

Sir Des Champs at 25/1, Ante-Post would break your heart though.

Goldcupfav · 22-11-2011 1:42pm

Sonofvic ew at 33/1 for the RSA. Should be running in a novice chase over 3m on Thursday at Newbury. 2/2 over hurdles always going to make a much better chaser.

RichieLawlor · 22-11-2011 1:47pm

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Sonofvic ew at 33/1 for the RSA. Should be running in a novice chase over 3m on Thursday at Newbury. 2/2 over hurdles always going to make a much better chaser.

Grands Crus will be in that novice chase on Thursday aswell I think

Goldcupfav · 22-11-2011 3:20pm

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Grands Crus will be in that novice chase on Thursday aswell I think

Yeah seen he was entered in the race. If GC runs i will have a nibble on Sonofvic w/o GC.

Oscars Well. · 22-11-2011 8:27pm

Prospect Wells for the supreme novices at 14/1.

longshotvalue · 22-11-2011 8:30pm

Ive no doubt at all , Tataniano is superb value for the Champion Chase. on good ground i think hell be difficult to beat, he is in the top 3 jumpers of a fence in training imo... 16/1 currently i have a little bit on at 25/1 not so long ago..

mdwexford · 23-11-2011 12:41am

aidankkk wrote: »

Ive no doubt at all , Tataniano is superb value for the Champion Chase. on good ground i think hell be difficult to beat, he is in the top 3 jumpers of a fence in training imo... 16/1 currently i have a little bit on at 25/1 not so long ago..

I was expecting big things from him last year but things didnt go to plan.

He is a savage jumper and that round he put in at Aintree when slamming Osana was the best round id seen from a novice since Azertyuiops Arkle.

On good ground against the current crop id fancy him to run really well also.

Morgans · 23-11-2011 6:19am

Have had a little on Mr. Moonshine for the RSA at 33/1 and Unaccompanied for the Champion Hurdle at 33/1.

Juwwi · 23-11-2011 4:59pm

SE will be 10-y-o and BZ will be 11-y-o in march and they are the first 2 in the betting.
Captain Chris is 4th fav and he might'nt run in it.

Realt Dubh is 25/1 with sportingbet for the champion chase.
He was 3rd in the arkle, which has a great record for it runners in the next years CC.
He then pushed Captain Chris hard at punchestown.
With normal improvement this year he should have a good chance.

Morgans · 23-11-2011 5:24pm

Just dont see him being quick enough. If he good enough for a grade 1 at the festival, I think it will be the Ryanair.

Huntey · 23-11-2011 6:13pm

Wishfull Thinking has a better chance of going for the Queen Mother than Captain Chris imo. Wouldn't be surprised to see him stepped back to 2 miles.

RichieLawlor · 23-11-2011 7:14pm

If Captain Chris runs in the Champion Chase then he will probably win it. I learned my lesson last year. Never ever take on the Arkle winner in the Queen Mother. The record is unreal

Goldcupfav · 23-11-2011 7:19pm

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Sonofvic ew at 33/1 for the RSA. Should be running in a novice chase over 3m on Thursday at Newbury. 2/2 over hurdles always going to make a much better chaser.

Goes up against Grand Crus tomorrow. 6/1 with 365 now. Think thats a decent price. I have my doubts over Grand Crus staying 3 miles. Paul Nicholls always keeps one of his better chasing prospects for this race. (1833 and Michel Le Bon winners the last two years both are fancied for the Hennessy on Sat, his record is 7 winners in the last 20 runnings also had a few bf's in the last few years) With Viking Blond in the race they should go a decent clip even with 4 runners. Im on Sonofvic EW at 33's for the RSA if he does manage to beat GC tomorrow he will be less than half that price tomorrow evening.

mdwexford · 23-11-2011 9:09pm

The Grands Crus thing is getting old, the horse has bags of stamina and is proven over three miles.

Just because Big Bucks got the better of him last season twice doesnt mean he lacks staying power.

If BB had gotten injured GC would have crushed everything all season.

RichieLawlor · 23-11-2011 9:44pm

mdwexford wrote: »

The Grands Crus thing is getting old, the horse has bags of stamina and is proven over three miles.

Just because Big Bucks got the better of him last season twice doesnt mean he lacks staying power.

If BB had gotten injured GC would have crushed everything all season.

He did finish 6th behind 3 Mullins horses in France. Maybe he was over the top but he stopped very fast that day when the going got tough

Colonel Sanders · 23-11-2011 9:44pm

I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him

RichieLawlor · 23-11-2011 10:05pm

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him

It's amazing how often Pipe says 'pick up some prize money' in his interview, I don't recall Nicholls every mentioning the money. I understand Nicholls has better horses but I wouldn't put it past Pipe to make the wrong choice for the horse just for the cash

Huntey · 23-11-2011 10:24pm

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him

Would you not think that running a novice in the Gold Cup would have a greater chance of ruining him than the RSA?

Colonel Sanders · 23-11-2011 10:27pm

Huntey wrote: »

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'm not in the "Grand Crus won't stay" camp but I am in the "RSA is a gruelling test for young horses & can ruin them" camp.

I'd go Jewson if he were mine. Knowing Pipe he'll surely at least get an entry in the Gold Cup & if he's on track to be top novice chaser I wouldn't put it past them to run him

Would you not think that running a novice in the Gold Cup would have a greater chance of ruining him than the RSA?

Yes!

2 independent points. I was saying firstly I'm not a fan of the RSA for young horses & maybe they'd go the Jewson route => ante post no go

Secondly Pipe might be tempted by the GC (there seemed to be considering throwing him in at the deep end in the Betfair) so a double ante post no go

mdwexford · 23-11-2011 10:53pm

Yeah if Grands Crus does rack up a few I could see them going the Pillar/Gold Cup route like they did with Therealbandit or the Racing Post chase/Gold Cup route they went with Gloria Victis who were both novices.

Especially in what is looking a weak year, if anything was to happen to Long Run its up for grabs. (Hopefully nothing will happen to him)

premierstone · 24-11-2011 1:30pm

RichieLawlor wrote: »

It's amazing how often Pipe says 'pick up some prize money' in his interview, I don't recall Nicholls every mentioning the money. I understand Nicholls has better horses but I wouldn't put it past Pipe to make the wrong choice for the horse just for the cash

The number one function of a trainer in reality is to win prize money to keep the owners happy, at the end of the day it is the owners who will make the decisions all the trainer can do is advise.

Arctic89 · 24-11-2011 2:51pm

I was thinking Steps to Freedom @ 10/1 for the Supreme Novices as a decent ante post bet. Has been impressive enough all summer and in the 2 graded novice hurdles he ran in. Also showing he can get up the hill at Cheltenham pretty well last time out when rallying from behind to get his head in front. Only thing I'd be worried about is his hurdling, he's liable to make a mistake or two on the way round.

Jessie has said she's putting him away until Cheltenham and the only run he'll get is on the all weather early next year so the chance of him getting injured and not making it to the post are probably slightly smaller than with other novices who have a full campaign to get through.

premierstone · 24-11-2011 3:46pm

Arctic89 wrote: »

I was thinking Steps to Freedom @ 10/1 for the Supreme Novices as a decent ante post bet. Has been impressive enough all summer and in the 2 graded novice hurdles he ran in. Also showing he can get up the hill at Cheltenham pretty well last time out when rallying from behind to get his head in front. Only thing I'd be worried about is his hurdling, he's liable to make a mistake or two on the way round.

Jessie has said she's putting him away until Cheltenham and the only run he'll get is on the all weather early next year so the chance of him getting injured and not making it to the post are probably slightly smaller than with other novices who have a full campaign to get through.

Personally I thought that Erricht was the horse to take out of that Cheltenham race you talked about , it was hes debut over hurdles and looked novicey at a few but is definitely open to huge improvement, he was sixth in last years champion bumper aswell.

Slattsy · 24-11-2011 5:55pm

My only ante post bet so far is Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. At 10/1.

I know he hasn't jumped a fence yet, but Henderson always said he was an Arkle horse in making.
No horse travelled better than him in the Supreme last year but he just got out stayed up the hill to finish 5 lenghts third to the class Al Ferof.
Another year on his back and bound to improve hugely from 5 to 6.
And basically once he wins any mickey mouse race over fences he will shorten up.

Nulty · 24-11-2011 10:04pm

Solwhit is interesting for the Arkle. Couldn't have him on my mind as an antepost bet but if he got to Cheltenham in good form, I'd be taking anything above 6/1. Of course, I'm saying that having not seen him jump. Assuming the best, he's likely to be in the first 3 in the betting anyhow.

Is 30/1 value at this stage though? Not seen him jump a fence, on the easy list with a ligament injury.....probably about the right price imo. He's rated 164 over hurdles.

sting60 · 24-11-2011 10:04pm

Far to early to back anything for Cheltenham.A horse I would like to see run over three miles is Medermit.

Slattsy · 09-12-2011 1:35pm

Slattsy wrote: »

My only ante post bet so far is Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. At 10/1.

I know he hasn't jumped a fence yet, but Henderson always said he was an Arkle horse in making.
No horse travelled better than him in the Supreme last year but he just got out stayed up the hill to finish 5 lenghts third to the class Al Ferof.
Another year on his back and bound to improve hugely from 5 to 6.
And basically once he wins any mickey mouse race over fences he will shorten up.

WOW !!!! Did you see him jump lads??
Unbelievable jumper for a novice.
Into 7s now in most places. Might go in again.

Johner · 09-12-2011 3:33pm

Very impressive jumping. I'm on Peddlers though.

Goldcupfav · 09-12-2011 3:50pm

Jumping was class but im sure he would of had harder schooling sessions at home than that race today.

Slattsy · 09-12-2011 3:53pm

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Jumping was class but im sure he would of had harder schooling sessions at home than that race today.

Definitely but like I said, he was bound to shorten even if he won a 2 runner race.
The Arkle is gonna be some race.

Slattsy · 27-12-2011 2:48pm

Get in.

Morgans · 27-12-2011 4:54pm

I will be opposing Grand Crus in the RSA. I thought he was more dominant than the winning margin was. If he was mine, I'd even think of going the softly softly route this year, probably the Arkle, and then step him up next year. It could be that he does his racing a long way from the finish but I wasnt impressed with how close the others were at the finish line, compared to how far behind they were three out. I think it would be a shame if he went for the Gold Cup. Wouldnt surprise if to see him thrown Gloria Victis like into the Racing Post chase as a prep.

RichieLawlor · 27-12-2011 6:10pm

The Pipes are greedy, they value prize money over what's best for the hors I'd make GC a 6/4 shot to line up in the Gold Cup.

Goldcupfav · 28-12-2011 4:05pm

The Gold Cup now looking like a match bet. Still think there is value in the 25/1 Boyles are offering on TFR.

mdwexford · 28-12-2011 7:56pm

Agree with that, he looks one of the only ones capable of a big run back at his favourite track. Certainly has great place prospects.

Colonel Sanders · 28-12-2011 8:08pm

Ladbrokes are NRNB on the 4 championship races

Prices aren't great on the Gold Cup though. They had been top price Captain Chris at 33/1 but they've shaken their market up after the Lexus

Juwwi · 28-12-2011 11:27pm

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Ladbrokes are NRNB on the 4 championship races

Prices aren't great on the Gold Cup though. They had been top price Captain Chris at 33/1 but they've shaken their market up after the Lexus

8/1 NRNB on Grands Crus might'nt be a bad bet at the moment.

Your right about their odds being bad tho nearly every horse is shorter.

UrbanSea · 28-12-2011 11:33pm

Best bet at the moment for me is Scotsirish in the Cross Country at 4/1

RichieLawlor · 29-12-2011 12:22pm

Grands Crus heading down the Pillar/Gold Cup route according to the RP

Hoofer · 31-12-2011 9:31pm

First Lieutenant 20-1 RSA chase, out of presenting so better ground a major factor for this horse,backed him heavily in neptune last year, backed china rock in 2009, came 4th, backed venalmar 2008, came 2nd by a neck..i nearly collapsed watching it from the club enclosure..gutted.F L is proven around cheltenham, mouse will relish the challenge to improve his jumping and to have him spot on for the day and have a right crack at it..thats why Davy Russell wont get off him for any other Gigginstown horse..hes thinking ahead to the olympics...get on lads:)

hucklebuck · 01-01-2012 4:22pm

Hoofer wrote: »

First Lieutenant 20-1 RSA chase, out of presenting so better ground a major factor for this horse,backed him heavily in neptune last year, backed china rock in 2009, came 4th, backed venalmar 2008, came 2nd by a neck..i nearly collapsed watching it from the club enclosure..gutted.F L is proven around cheltenham, mouse will relish the challenge to improve his jumping and to have him spot on for the day and have a right crack at it..thats why Davy Russell wont get off him for any other Gigginstown horse..hes thinking ahead to the olympics...get on lads:)

I will be avoiding him like the plague, the ground was good in Leopardstown on the 28th by the way

Colonel Sanders · 01-01-2012 5:01pm

Reading the racingpost yesterday there was a section on horse racing specials for 2012

One that stood out for me was Coral going 5/1 for Big Bucks to start odds against in the World Hurdle

First up people will shout "are you mad, he's 4/7 ante post". True, however the same was the case this year. Odds on at this stage and that was before Grand Crus blast on the scene in the Cleeve Hurdle. This year his opposition might include Thousand Stars, Oscar Whiskey among others. I'm confident evens or possibly odds on will be available on the day whether his SP stands up is a different matter

All in all 5/1 is too big IMO (seeing as he was available at odds against on the day the last 2 years in arguably weaker races). Pity it's with Coral as they won't take Euro bets (well didn't used to is this still the case?)

Colonel Sanders · 01-01-2012 5:03pm

It's here with a few other specials

Colonel Sanders · 01-01-2012 5:25pm

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Reading the racingpost yesterday there was a section on horse racing specials for 2012

One that stood out for me was Coral going 5/1 for Big Bucks to start odds against in the World Hurdle

First up people will shout "are you mad, he's 4/7 ante post". True, however the same was the case this year. Odds on at this stage and that was before Grand Crus blast on the scene in the Cleeve Hurdle. This year his opposition might include Thousand Stars, Oscar Whiskey among others. I'm confident evens or possibly odds on will be available on the day whether his SP stands up is a different matter

All in all 5/1 is too big IMO (seeing as he was available at odds against on the day the last 2 years in arguably weaker races). Pity it's with Coral as they won't take Euro bets (well didn't used to is this still the case?)

FYI Coral now accept euro bets

However they would only offer me the pathetic sum of €25 at 5/1 FFS

I've never had a bet with them before btw so it's not like I'm restricted on sports

Plentyofice · 08-01-2012 10:12am

I think when Dylan Ross gets proper ground and carberry stops acting the f*ck he'll go close.
Ut de sivola at 20/1 for the triumph...

sonnky · 08-01-2012 7:54pm

Galileos Choice in the Supreme if he goes for it. Ran a cracker behind a Mullins horse in a G1 at Fairyhouse on heavy ground. Will appreciate better ground. He has a bit of class a Grade 3 winner on the flat and I think he will like Cheltenham, as hes won at tracks like at before. 16/1 is too big for him at the moment.

UrbanSea · 08-01-2012 10:11pm

Plentyofice wrote: »

I think when Dylan Ross gets proper ground and carberry stops acting the f*ck he'll go close.
Ut de sivola at 20/1 for the triumph...

Where is there 20 available for Ut plentyofice?

ste2010 · 08-01-2012 10:38pm

Anyone got an opinion on prospect wells performance yesterday..I'd be interested to see if there was anything wrong with him? It was a terrible perf which looked way below par

Colonel Sanders · 08-01-2012 10:39pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Where is there 20 available for Ut plentyofice?

14/1 best price on Oddschecker

No 20's showing in the history

UrbanSea · 08-01-2012 11:14pm

ste2010 wrote: »

Anyone got an opinion on prospect wells performance yesterday..I'd be interested to see if there was anything wrong with him? It was a terrible perf which looked way below par

I think that horse needs further and I'd be very surprised if he was a grade 1 horse

Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

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