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Grandouet

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    #182
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭droidman123


    RichieLawlor wrote: »

    Fair point. But the difference is everything I post is either (a) my own opinion or (b) backed up by stats or facts.

    I do like I have a pop if I think a poster is being completely foolish.

    Huntley is trying to argue against Mathemathical FACTS, with complete tripe.

    If I say Overturn lacks the class to win an arkle, it is my opinion based on his runs so far. I could possibly be wrong. I think he is a grinder and that's what wins him races. Opinion.

    2+2 = 4. That is a fact, no matter what I say or how I try to spin it, the answer is still 4. While that is not exactly what Huntley is saying, it is in essence the same thing.
    I honestly think huntleys views are being completely misunderstood, maby i am being naive,but i can understand his point of view and his reasoning. I know about stats,facts,figures etc but it really is about two different angles on the whole subject.


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    #183
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    droidman123 wrote: »
    I honestly think huntleys views are being completely misunderstood, maby i am being naive,but i can understand his point of view and his reasoning. I know about stats,facts,figures etc but it really is about two different angles on the whole subject.

    There are 2 different angles. Some people are saying they look for value others are saying the opposite

    Huntley has said value is irrelevant & has called me "inept", an idiot and laughed at my posts as merely an attempt to make me look "shrewd"

    He has posted things that contradict rigorous mathematics & statistics and has called such theory "idiocy". His posts are on a par with someone posting that the world is flat

    If you are a punter that doesn't focus on value merely finding the most likely winner then good luck with that but do not post condescending, arrogant bullsh!t that flies in the face of the world as we know it.


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    #184
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »

    There are 2 different angles. Some people are saying they look for value others are saying the opposite

    Huntley has said value is irrelevant & has called me "inept", an idiot and laughed at my posts as merely an attempt to make me look "shrewd"

    He has posted things that contradict rigorous mathematics & statistics and has called such theory "idiocy". His posts are on a par with someone posting that the world is flat

    If you are a punter that doesn't focus on value merely finding the most likely winner then good luck with that but do not post condescending, arrogant bullsh!t that flies in the face of the world as we know it.
    I think there are different ways of how someone can define value.i know the fundamental basics cant be argued, but i can understand his take on it. I,m not taking "sides" here but i can only opine on what i see.


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    #185
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    droidman123 wrote: »
    I think there are different ways of how someone can define value.i know the fundamental basics cant be argued, but i can understand his take on it. I,m not taking "sides" here but i can only opine on what i see.

    Value in horse racing is subjective. Nobody has argued that. Even after the event nobody can state the PRIOR probability of any horse winning. I never stated I could 100% accurately assign a probability to a horse, I stated there are metrics you can keep track of to help assess whether on average you are getting it right

    As RL correctly stated this is an example of opinion

    1. Huntley has explicitly stated that value is irrelevant and all that counts is backing winners irrespective of price.

    2. He has explicitly stated that my assertion that you cannot win in the long run without getting incorrect prices is "subjective" and "idiocy"

    3. He has stated that a bad punter is as likely to win money as a good punter is as likely to lose

    1 & 2 are categorically 100% incorrect. For 3 you can come up with a set of assumptions over a finite series of bets where this is the case but in general this is not the case (eg see my example in the other thread). Over an infinite number of bets it is also 100% incorrect

    I state opinions on here all the time, I've no problem with people arguing over opinions as they may or may not be correct.

    I have a huge problem where someone states "facts" that are false or insults other posters who quote actual facts and say they are "wrong"

    The irony is that the majority of Huntley's posts on here are arrogant, condescending and belittle other posters opinions (not facts) via a god complex of "I'm right you're wrong, end of story"

    I'm posting using my iPhone now so can't pick his last post to pieces. I will do so when I get home. That will be my last reply directly to him until

    1. He admits he's talking bollox
    2. He produces a rigorous proof that the law of large numbers is in fact incorrect

    I have no problem discussing value & other aspects of gambling on the other thread I posted yesterday

    Until this evening here's one for Huntley to chew over. You are Sprinter Sacre's biggest fan. You were 100% correct in your bullishness over the horse for last years Arkle and bet accordingly. I assume you believe he's the most likely winner of the champion chase. I assume most posters assume he is the most likely winner. If that horse is 1/100 on the day will you be backing it? If not why not as price doesn't matter?

    If you do not think he is the most likely winner ignore the last part


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    #186
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    I agree with most of what Huntley is saying.

    How people are saying this value element is mathematical fact is beyond me. It's impossible to know if a horses price is value as opposed to telling if heads at 2/1 is value in a coin toss. It is a matter of opinion whether you think a horses price is value or not, far from fact.

    I would sometimes back a horse if I thought he was a massive price for what its worth.


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    #187
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    ft9 wrote: »
    How people are saying this value element is mathematical fact is beyond me. It's impossible to know if a horses price is value as opposed to telling if heads at 2/1 is value in a coin toss. It is a matter of opinion whether you think a horses price is value or not, far from fact.

    I would sometimes back a horse if I thought he was a massive price for what its worth.

    Nobody is saying you can 100% accurately price a horse

    What I and others have stated is that in the long run you cannot win money in the long run without getting prices that under estimate tote selections chances of winning

    The 2nd part is the mathematical fact people keep referring to


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    #188
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭droidman123


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »

    Value in horse racing is subjective. Nobody has argued that. Even after the event nobody can state the PRIOR probability of any horse winning. I never stated I could 100% accurately assign a probability to a horse, I stated there are metrics you can keep track of to help assess whether on average you are getting it right

    As RL correctly stated this is an example of opinion

    1. Huntley has explicitly stated that value is irrelevant and all that counts is backing winners irrespective of price.

    2. He has explicitly stated that my assertion that you cannot win in the long run without getting incorrect prices is "subjective" and "idiocy"

    3. He has stated that a bad punter is as likely to win money as a good punter is as likely to lose

    1 & 2 are categorically 100% incorrect. For 3 you can come up with a set of assumptions over a finite series of bets where this is the case but in general this is not the case (eg see my example in the other thread). Over an infinite number of bets it is also 100% incorrect

    I state opinions on here all the time, I've no problem with people arguing over opinions as they may or may not be correct.

    I have a huge problem where someone states "facts" that are false or insults other posters who quote actual facts and say they are "wrong"

    The irony is that the majority of Huntley's posts on here are arrogant, condescending and belittle other posters opinions (not facts) via a god complex of "I'm right you're wrong, end of story"

    I'm posting using my iPhone now so can't pick his last post to pieces. I will do so when I get home. That will be my last reply directly to him until

    1. He admits he's talking bollox
    2. He produces a rigorous proof that the law of large numbers is in fact incorrect

    I have no problem discussing value & other aspects of gambling on the other thread I posted yesterday

    Until this evening here's one for Huntley to chew over. You are Sprinter Sacre's biggest fan. You were 100% correct in your bullishness over the horse for last years Arkle and bet accordingly. I assume you believe he's the most likely winner of the champion chase. I assume most posters assume he is the most likely winner. If that horse is 1/100 on the day will you be backing it? If not why not as price doesn't matter?

    If you do not think he is the most likely winner ignore the last part
    I didnt see all huntlys posts, but of the ones you posted above i cant say i agree with all of them. IPHONE???? Now dont get me started on apple : ) any seeing this thread is about grandouet, for what its worth i think with some improvement raya star can place in the champion hurdle. 155 rating atm. And talking about value, i think 20-1 is a fair price although i will be keeping my stake low-ish.


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    #189
    NewApproach
    Registered Users Posts: 2,185 ✭✭✭NewApproach


    Huntley, using your example, if I were to back a horse at 20s who was backed into 2s and it was beaten in a photo, would that constitute a 'bad value' bet because he lost?


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    #190
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    I'm posting using my iPhone now so can't pick his last post to pieces. I will do so when I get home

    Here you go, I suggest any replies be posted to that particular thread

    This has very little to do with the OP on this one


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    #191
    Hulk Hands
    Registered Users Posts: 6,013 ✭✭✭Hulk Hands


    Huntley wrote: »
    Its becoming quite tedious and it is no surprise that the piss poor analysis in general is synonymous with the external views about this forum.

    Where are these external views coming from by the way? Online or what? Is it a view held by more than a select few people?


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    #192
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Where are these external views coming from by the way? Online or what? Is it a view held by more than a select few people?

    I reckon his mam said it to him, "Don't mind your internet friends, you are always right my special little poopsykins even when Turing, Newton, Galileo and Phythagorous have solid evidence to the contrary"


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    #193
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Anymore posts regarding value can go in this thread

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=82620806&postcount=15

    This can return to Grandouet/Champion Hurdle


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    #194
    SRFC
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭SRFC


    LOL at dicklawlor giving out the stick on the thread this is the clown who has made these statement's


    ''Overturn is a million to one to win the arkle''


    ''Overturn hasnt got the class to win an arkle'' despite the fact he's a grade one winning hurdler galway hurdle winner chester cup winner and northumberland plate winner to name but a few wins not to mention champion hurdle placed :rolleyes::rolleyes:



    Oh an he backed 3 horses in a 4 horse race to beat him claiming his jumping made this a bet to make :D:D:D:D:D



    Moron.









    Anyways back on topic





    HURRICANE FLY WINS THE CH AGAIN SO MAKE SURE YOU BET GRANDOUET EW


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    #195
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    SRFC please refrain from personal insults. Calling posters ''clowns'' or ''morons'' is generally frowned upon and will result in a ban next time


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    #196
    SRFC
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,132 ✭✭✭SRFC


    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    Lol Huntley is worse than that clown in the Simonsig thread.

    He is trying to argue against mathematical FACT

    Lol.

    Credibility

    Gone

    Forever.

    Lol


    @urbansea does this dig not deserve a warning or is it just me who gets one?


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    #197
    UrbanSea
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    I messaged him about that. Call his posts as idiotic or stupid as you like but don't directly insult him


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    #198
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,339 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Value in horse racing is subjective. Nobody has argued that. Even after the event nobody can state the PRIOR probability of any horse winning. I never stated I could 100% accurately assign a probability to a horse, I stated there are metrics you can keep track of to help assess whether on average you are getting it right

    As RL correctly stated this is an example of opinion

    1. Huntley has explicitly stated that value is irrelevant and all that counts is backing winners irrespective of price.

    2. He has explicitly stated that my assertion that you cannot win in the long run without getting incorrect prices is "subjective" and "idiocy"

    3. He has stated that a bad punter is as likely to win money as a good punter is as likely to lose

    1 & 2 are categorically 100% incorrect. For 3 you can come up with a set of assumptions over a finite series of bets where this is the case but in general this is not the case (eg see my example in the other thread). Over an infinite number of bets it is also 100% incorrect

    I state opinions on here all the time, I've no problem with people arguing over opinions as they may or may not be correct.

    I have a huge problem where someone states "facts" that are false or insults other posters who quote actual facts and say they are "wrong"

    The irony is that the majority of Huntley's posts on here are arrogant, condescending and belittle other posters opinions (not facts) via a god complex of "I'm right you're wrong, end of story"

    I'm posting using my iPhone now so can't pick his last post to pieces. I will do so when I get home. That will be my last reply directly to him until

    1. He admits he's talking bollox
    2. He produces a rigorous proof that the law of large numbers is in fact incorrect

    I have no problem discussing value & other aspects of gambling on the other thread I posted yesterday

    Until this evening here's one for Huntley to chew over. You are Sprinter Sacre's biggest fan. You were 100% correct in your bullishness over the horse for last years Arkle and bet accordingly. I assume you believe he's the most likely winner of the champion chase. I assume most posters assume he is the most likely winner. If that horse is 1/100 on the day will you be backing it? If not why not as price doesn't matter?

    If you do not think he is the most likely winner ignore the last part

    Define what a large number is CS.
    If you actually know what you are talking about you have to concede that a selective punter over 50 years may well come no where near backing enough horses for the total to be considered a large number.


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    #199
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    Morebattle on Thursday.


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    #200
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Huntley wrote: »
    Morebattle on Thursday.

    Heavy odds on looking at the entries. It's not going to tell us much, bar he's beaten.


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    #201
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    Kingwell would have been perfect for him.

    This might dispel some of the views that he doesn't get a yard over 2 miles which people have used against him as being a Champion Hurdler. Nice little spin around should do the trick anyway to set him up for the big one.


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    #202
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Yes it will make it all the more interesting to know what he has up his sleeve for Cheltenham. Also it will keep the price up higher than had he went on and destroyed top class 2 milers in his prep.


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    #203
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    Such an unlucky animal.


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    #204
    beaker1
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭beaker1


    anyone thinking of backing grandouet any time soon hold your bets as theres rumours that he might not run most bookies have suspended betting on the champion hurdle due to the news about grandouet


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    #205
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Hurricane Fly will start shorter than last year if this keeps up, race Is falling apart


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    #206
    droidman123
    Registered Users Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭droidman123


    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    Hurricane Fly will start shorter than last year if this keeps up, race Is falling apart
    ALL the horses at the head of the betting will start shorter. damn,why didnt i have the balls to get an antepost bet on:mad:


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    #207
    beaker1
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭beaker1


    confirmed now a n/runner


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    #208
    Gerlad
    Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭Gerlad


    @RacingPost: Grandouet is undergoing treatment for a near-fore issue which has put his Kingwell Hurdle participation in doubt, Nicky Henderson reports...@RacingPost: ...but it is stressed by the trainer that there is no danger to his Stan James Champion Hurdle plans. He is not out of that race.


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    #209
    Johner
    Registered Users Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    This happened last year, missed the Kingwell and Henderson said he would be fine for the Champion Hurdle.

    :(


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    #210
    Arctic89
    Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    First Bobs Worth,then Simonsig,now Grandouet. You'd wonder how well things are at Seven Barrows.


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    #211
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    Still in one piece seemingly. I was pleased with the decision not to send him up north to hack around some sub standard racetrack for a poor prize and the Kingwell looked the option earlier in the week. He is going to miss that now, supposedly due to the ground and not the fluid in his leg, which has supposedly cleared up. Not ideal but a more pertinent issue is whether he will get his good ground. The dream lives on for the time being anyway.

    GRANDOUET will miss the Grade 2 Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday and head straight to the Champion Hurdle with the ground, and not an injury revealed earlier this week, the reason for his absence.

    Owned by Simon Munir, Grandouet was briefly removed from the betting for the Stan James Champion Hurdle on Tuesday with doubts surrounding his participation at the Cheltenham Festival.

    Trainer Nicky Henderson quickly quashed talk of the six-year-old missing Cheltenham although he did say that filling had been found in the gelding's near-fore which could rule him out of his intended prep race.

    With his absence confirmed, Grandouet will now follow the same pre-Cheltenham preparation as his high-profile stablemates Bobs Worth, Simonsig, Long Run, Binocular, Rolling Star and Riverside Theatre by having a racecourse gallop.

    Henderson said on Thursday: "The filling in Grandouet's near fore has dispersed as we had hoped with exercise and is now negligible.

    "However, in view of the likelihood of very testing conditions at Wincanton and the fact that his training for this race has obviously been interrupted, we have all decided to forego a prep race and train him at home without a run before the Champion Hurdle.

    "If it was the Champion Hurdle this weekend, he would be able to run but we feel under the circumstances a tough race in the ground would not be ideal and, like many of our others - Long Run, Bobs Worth, Simonsig, Rolling Star, Binocular, Riverside Theatre - will have a racecourse gallop between now and then. He is fit and well and, dare I say, fancied."

    http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/grandouet-misses-wincanton-but-on-course-for-festival/1203790/top/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews


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