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Less cold...then colder again
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We have feelings too...
Anyway on track for gradually colder weather as we head into New Year. At first it will be settled and quite pleasant with only frost at night and daytime temperatures maxing around 4 - 6c. Cloud at first with the continental flow should give way to brighter skies from the North from the 30th. Cold at night with temperatures sub zero in most places from the 30th.
After the 1st of January things are going to get colder but how cold can not be said with much accuracy. Most likely is a North or Northeasterly flow as high pressure drifts away Northwestward. My own opinion is that very cold weather is likely again soon after New Years day but we will see.
Latest UKMO synoptics for the 2nd Jan (a cold slack Northeasterly)
Latest GFS holds back till the 3rd for the colder weather
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I think you may have just admitted trolling there which is another no no on the internets..you should knowDon't take things so personaly, if you can't take a bit of ribbing you should not be on the internets.
Meanwhile back to the models.There are in my opinion absolutely no signs of a return to cold.
There are only hunches which are far in superior to the thoughts of super computers if you ask me.
All models are showing at the moment in the reliable and in the unreliable FI is a high pressure doing the hokey cokey around Britain and Ireland.
Models have not resolved where that high is eventually going to go and any talk of it going NW is theoretical.
There are no signs of it doing this.
One thing I've noticed is the strangest shapes of flabby highs usually coincide with signals that the high wants to stick around so it probably will for a long time.
After that who knows.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »I think you may have just admitted trolling there which is another no no on the internets..you should know
Meanwhile back to the models.There are in my opinion absolutely no signs of a return to cold.
There are only hunches which are far in superior to the thoughts of super computers if you ask me.
All models are showing at the moment in the reliable and in the unreliable FI is a high pressure doing the hokey cokey around Britain and Ireland.
Models have not resolved where that high is eventually going to go and any talk of it going NW is theoretical.
There are no signs of it doing this.
One thing I've noticed is the strangest shapes of flabby highs usually coincide with signals that the high wants to stick around so it probably will for a long time.
After that who knows.
oooh . . .battle of the high-post-count people begins!!!0 -
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »This may sound selfish but I could use a week of totally bland, boring weather so I can extend my holiday. Bring it on (gently). :cool:
You're right it does sound very selfish
only messing MT.
I agree actually, would be nice to just get in the car and drive off in the morning and to be devoid of cold and snow for a little while to make the next round all the sweeter. I demand that the next snow not rear it's head until my turkey is devoured and only the toffee pennies are left in the chocolate tin.!0 -
isle of man wrote: »http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8KTvPd9mJtU&feature=player_embedded#!
lets hope we get what the USA is getting.
epic snow
http://vimeo.com/18213768
NJ snow accumulation. Quite incredible.
I know exactly what BB means by the 'flabby highs' readings from the models. Personally, I would look beyond this and focus on whether the cold to our north and east are making inroads on the warmer martime airmass to our W, SW and S. It looks like a stalemate at present which BB correctly alludes to as leaving us in pretty much the same type situation as we will find ourselves in a day or two i.e. a high pressure system that will prevent our weather from either warming up or coOling down significantly.
I note the absence of any high pressure system building up to our NE, NW or N over the next 10-14 days hence the lack of any real evidence to back up the potential for any real sustained reload of cold. Having said that there are tentative signs that we could see a return of severe cold by the middle to end (more likely) of the first week of Jan.
The below is not too disimilar to what we saw ahead of the last outbreak of cold i.e. 2-3 HP systems over Greenland, developing low in arctic ocean, HP over northern europe.
If the HP system in this graph was to shift further north and west I would be more confident in being able to say we will see a reload. In any case, we will see temps cooling to 4-7c by Saturday with some night time lows of 0 to -4c. Beyond that subtle changes (to what the computer models are showing) in a scenario being ruled by a high pressure system over Ireland in late Dec are inevitable.0 -
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Flicking through the models this evening, I think that the main factor preventing us from getting that cold unstable pool of colder air over us is the fact that the HP is anchored too far south. I therefore think that the next cold spell will hit central to southern europe (an elongated HP from Greenland to Spain/N Africa usually results in this). However I do believe that we are in for a good chance say from the 10th january onwards.
Edit: Could be a similar pattern forming like the start-middle of december: HP over us, first cold plunge into central/eastern/southern europe followed by retrogression of high to greenland and another Northerly/NEasterly ( validity close to zero though
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Deleted User wrote: »I think you may have just admitted trolling there which is another no no on the internets..you should know
Meanwhile back to the models.There are in my opinion absolutely no signs of a return to cold.
There are only hunches which are far in superior to the thoughts of super computers if you ask me.
All models are showing at the moment in the reliable and in the unreliable FI is a high pressure doing the hokey cokey around Britain and Ireland.
Models have not resolved where that high is eventually going to go and any talk of it going NW is theoretical.
There are no signs of it doing this.
One thing I've noticed is the strangest shapes of flabby highs usually coincide with signals that the high wants to stick around so it probably will for a long time.
After that who knows.
High pressure is going Northwest - there is nowhere else to go and the NAO does not support a sinking high. It's inevitable. Very cold Northerly or Northeastely winds are coming just after New Year. We are on track. Yes, the models are fooling around a bit but they will come into line with each other within,I reckon, the next 2 days.0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »That high pressure can actually go wherever it likes regardless of where anyone wishes it to go.
Theres nothing stopping it meandering all over the place untill the end of january if it wants to.
It may eventually go northwest...just as it may go southwest and back into the azores.
I'm not ruling out another cold snap.Guaranteeing one is a forecast faux pax because of a lack of certainty.
Of course theres going to be another cold snap and several mild periods.
10.4c here today which by anybodies book is true atlantic air established and easily established.
The danger of letting enthusiasm for cold over rule common sense is highlighted in the the first few posts of this thread which read like a forecast.
I realise it's easy for me to say that but then it's always the way.
Caution post 96hrs makes for a better forecast.
Im not being biased because it will turn colder. If it was going to be milder id say so. But it won't be.
You say Atlantic air - for now yes but from Thursday this will be replaced by a continental flow which whilst not that cold at upper levels will bring cold at the surface across the country and frosts and ice return.
By next weekend temperatures will be struggling above freezing.
But that is just the initial part of the process of high pressure building Northwest and blocking Atlantic systems. Eventually we should have a GL high and more significant cold from the North or Northeast. Just an example from the GFS to prove what I am getting at. (180hrs)
So in my opinion, and it is just my opinion, I think the outcome is like the OP. Getting gradually colder. Could be completely wrong and we could be blowtorched from the southwest but unlikely.0 -
But it's definitely mild now and will be for the next few days.Im not being biased because it will turn colder. If it was going to be milder id say so. But it won't be.
Not less cold ...it's not cold at all now it's 8 degree's above freezing! Thats mild.
Are you as confident of that new timescale as you were with the timescale you offered in the op?You say Atlantic air - for now yes but from Thursday this will be replaced by a continental flow which whilst not that cold at upper levels will bring cold at the surface across the country and frosts and ice return.
Previously you were quoting the UKMO for this cold hope,it's now got the high a bit to the northwest and then over us again and it's sending in returning atlantic maratime air at 144.So it doesn't even get there now in FI...
Leaving aside that problem,you're now resorting to FI in one run of the GFS.
Thats a candidate for very low confidence.
In fact I'd imagine forecasters wouldn't even mention the prospect of cold at all in the immediate future if thats all they had to go on at this stage.
I'm not getting a dig here at all but seriously,what are you doing presenting one run of the gfs as confidence that we're going back in the freezer in 5 days time?By next weekend temperatures will be struggling above freezing.
You didn't post the hair dryer southwesterly run from this morning.
Part of the job of forecasting is taking a view on confidence.
Genuinely now,you couldn't be more than 50% on this outcome?
This is what I'm getting at.But that is just the initial part of the process of high pressure building Northwest and blocking Atlantic systems. Eventually we should have a GL high and more significant cold from the North or Northeast. Just an example from the GFS to prove what I am getting at. (180hrs)
So in my opinion, and it is just my opinion, I think the outcome is like the OP. Getting gradually colder. Could be completely wrong and we could be blowtorched from the southwest but unlikely.
In theory that could happen but then again it mightn't.
Confidence has to be low at this stage making any statement that it will happen "hope casting" at best.
That said I like what you are doing here,you are,(protest my view on what you are doing or not) evaluating the likelihood and the signs to look out for to those that want a very [on this forum and others] much liked weather type.
Your confidence in this must be low though at this stage.
However,people that don't know that you are analyzing charts with a particular outcome in mind may expect that outcome and be disappointed.
I'll borrow MT's probability theory though.The likelihood at some stage of all the required building blocks for a repeat performance of december happening are probably higher than they not happening.
So at some stage sooner or later you will be right.
But obviously someone looking for milder interludes is going to have an easier time realising them than you will the cold ones.
Thats the sad fact for cold weather lovers with this island being disadvantageously positioned for that outcome where it is.
What we've had in late 2010 was remarkable but not normal obviously.
Thats my considered view.I won't be at all surprised if our high does retrogress northwestwards and if it does so,for all models to agree that it will within a few days of it doing so.
I want to see things trending there first though and as they aren't,I'm thinking we are more than likely stuck in mild high pressure dominated stagnation for the next week at least.0 -
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I understand that DM2 and admire your confidence.
My own hunch is that something very cold will eventually turn up but I'm not confident when that will be.
Also to clarify,your analysis is most certainly not OTT were those charts to verify as the weather we get on the day.
But will they?
That is the $64k question.
Yesterday you had the ukmo out on it's ownio,it's back tracked so is discarded...
Remember whether it was a fluke or a sign of a good model or pure coincidence,it was the ukmo that consistently showed a trend of colder/severely cold weather in the run up to our two cold spells.
The ECM is professionally regarded as the best model and yet it wasn't delivering as consistent a sign in the run up to those cold spells as the ukmo.
One thing we have to thank U.S law for and that is it's freedom of information laws have had the power to compel the entire information from each GFS run to be published.
We also get full US weather service technical discussions on all models runs and weather analysis published by virtue of the very same laws.
So it's easy to see what professional forecasters views are on various models veracity at various times is.
It's fair to say sometimes the best ones stuff up.
I actually think you are running with a bit of intuition at this stage yourself and you'd on balance probably be right to do so.
But to the general reader,if it's cold you want,if it's there at all or a sniff of it possible DM2 will find it
Don't be surprised if it's delayed though and be gratefull when it eventually does come because I'm in that camp too.
I'm just not confident of the timing (yet).
Thats returning atlantic air...the ever teething problem of a high tilted wrongly.Not to worry though,as you know it's not going to pan out like that chart,there'll be a different one tomorrow,hopefully a lot colder.darkman2 wrote:UK Met office is not far behind in fairness.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »I understand that DM2 and admire your confidence.
My own hunch is that something very cold will eventually turn up but I'm not confident when that will be.
Also to clarify,your analysis is most certainly not OTT were those charts to verify as the weather we get on the day.
But will they?
That is the $64k question.
Yesterday you had the ukmo out on it's ownio,it's back tracked so is discarded...
Remember whether it was a fluke or a sign of a good model or pure coincidence,it was the ukmo that consistently showed a trend of colder/severely cold weather in the run up to our two cold spells.
The ECM is professionally regarded as the best model and yet it wasn't delivering as consistent a sign in the run up to those cold spells as the ukmo.
One thing we have to thank U.S law for and that is it's freedom of information laws have had the power to compel the entire information from each GFS run to be published.
We also get full US weather service technical discussions on all models runs and weather analysis published by virtue of the very same laws.
So it's easy to see what professional forecasters views are on various models veracity at various times is.
It's fair to say sometimes the best ones stuff up.
I actually think you are running with a bit of intuition at this stage yourself and you'd on balance probably be right to do so.
But to the general reader,if it's cold you want,if it's there at all or a sniff of it possible DM2 will find it
Don't be surprised if it's delayed though and be gratefull when it eventually does come because I'm in that camp too.
I'm just not confident of the timing (yet).
Thats returning atlantic air...the ever teething problem of a high tilted wrongly.Not to worry though,as you know it's not going to pan out like that chart,there'll be a different one tomorrow,hopefully a lot colder.
It's not a case of discarding a particular model and, yes, none of those charts are "right" as to what may pertain on a given day but it's the overall trend we are interested in. The UKMO is in fact very good for cold but it may bring it down later then the ECM by a day or so. You are absolutely right about timing. We can be reasonably confident on what the overall broad trend is - that is a quiet Atlantic and an amplified Jet Stream and pressure gradually building toward the Northwest. There is only one outcome there and it is colder weather. How cold and the timing of it's arrival are the known unknowns:pac: We also have to keep an eye on undercutting areas of Low Pressure (as the GFS shows) - too far North and we are on the wrong side of the Polar Front etc etc - so ALOT of variables as usual. It will be 3 or 4 days really before we can be very confident. But right now things are on track.0 -
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Interesting to see some of the charts showing up tonight.
The potential for another cold/snowy spell is there but is by no means certain in my opinion.
I'd like to see better model agreement and at a shorter range, it's all too easy to focus on the charts we want to see and forget about the ones we don't.
Still though, I think the chances are we'll see another cold spell (of some form) shaping up early in January.
Stay tuned...0 -
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The new and improved optimistic Nacho welcome to the weather forum my friend :pac:nacho libre wrote: »The ukmo has changed it's outlook a lot in the last week. So perhaps the next update will signal a return to very cold conditions. Two months of meteorological winter to go, so hopefully the best is yet to come- or at least something close to the first two cold spells. 0
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