Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

Lumi · 17-10-2017 9:13pm

Mod Note

Let’s get back in topic please!

This is the Weather Forum - head over to Work & Jobs if you want to discuss the ins and outs of employment

sdanseo · 17-10-2017 9:17pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

Based on ME's own wind speed criteria for red and orange warnings and the projected wind speeds, it was not a red warning for much of the country.

IMO the warning system is undermined by this.

I agreed with this yesterday at one point, to an extent, and I still agree that on a technical level there were probably small areas of the country where red conditions were not forecast on any model.

However Dublin was clearly shown on a few to be in for 150km/h + gusts at one point, even though we didn't get them. The probability was so widespread that I think the red warning made perfect sense. A huge proportion of the country was in the firing line and if the storm had been even a slight bit more intense I think we would have seen huge damage in the larger cities.

It's absolutely right for there to be debate about it because any and all of our public services have to be held to account. Would say the same about any of them, once the debate is educated and informed and not a pile of stupid twats on social media posting snapchats from the diving board in Salthill around 3pm yesterday.

But the conclusion many and myself included have reached is - overwhelmingly - yes, they were absolutely correct. There is no question at all that more fatalities and injuries were prevented by the national warning.

Fair play Met Éireann and in particular Joanna Donnelly, Evelyn Cusack and Gerry Murphy who all deserve a week in somewhere calm and sunny - on the taxpayer.

Donegal Storm · 17-10-2017 9:27pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it's wrong to think that Met Eireann should be looking at the warning level system from an exclusively meteorological POV, which is what you seem to be suggesting in your post.

And I don't agree even from that meteorological POV - the data wasn't telling anyone 'no', there was absolutely nothing definitive about the predicted tracks of this storm, and without that, no definitive way of knowing where exactly the storm would go. There was massive uncertainty on Sunday morning in particular, which was when they made that key nationwide Red call.

As for people talking about the 'cry wolf' factor, I think that's a statement without foundation, I think there's more than enough people who will have seen that 3 people died, 2 of whom were doing nothing more 'dangerous' than driving a car. More than enough people will have seen the massive amounts of damage done to the southwest. I've chatted to my neighbours, some of whom were sceptical about the storm beforehand, and today they were mostly grateful that they missed the worst of it, because they can see the worst of it right on their TV screens.

People will remember those news reports, and those deaths, when the next warning comes around.

Based on my Facebook feed people in Donegal are roundly annoyed and in disbelief that their days were put upside-down and kids had two days off school because of a moderately breezy evening. People are obviously aware that the warning was warranted in the south but Donegal and the whole northern half of the country barely warranted an orange warning never mind a 'put your life on hold and stay indoors' red warning for conditions that will be replicated probably 50 times over the next 5 months.

I think on the whole the met handled this very well and undoubtedly saved lives so I have no criticism in that sense, its just that red warnings should be reserved for genuinely dangerous conditions which was never forecast to be the case for the NW. If we have one of our more typical winter storms that warrants a red warning in Donegal and Mayo in the coming months then people will definitely hark back to this one and doubt its authenticity

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 9:35pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it's wrong to think that Met Eireann should be looking at the warning level system from an exclusively meteorological POV, which is what you seem to be suggesting in your post.

And I don't agree even from that meteorological POV - the data wasn't telling anyone 'no', there was absolutely nothing definitive about the predicted tracks of this storm, and without that, no definitive way of knowing where exactly the storm would go. There was massive uncertainty on Sunday morning in particular, which was when they made that key nationwide Red call.

As for people talking about the 'cry wolf' factor, I think that's a statement without foundation, I think there's more than enough people who will have seen that 3 people died, 2 of whom were doing nothing more 'dangerous' than driving a car. More than enough people will have seen the massive amounts of damage done to the southwest. I've chatted to my neighbours, some of whom were sceptical about the storm beforehand, and today they were mostly grateful that they missed the worst of it, because they can see the worst of it right on their TV screens.

People will remember those news reports, and those deaths, when the next warning comes around.

Met Éireann are qualified meteorologists. There are other bodies qualified in their own fields. They all come together to discuss the situation, each contributing their expertise to the table. I'm not sure what other qualifications you think Met Éireann have that allows them to look outside the meteorologial POV? There are other bodies qualified for that.

I don't think there was the massive uncertainty on Sunday that you claim. Even Joanna herself repeated many times that it didn't matter what exact track it took.

Compared to other wind storms, such as recent hurricanes, I don't think you can consider it "massive amounts of damage". Just look at Barbuda.

flazio wrote: »

Absolutly the right call. It has been remarked over in the UK how it's 30 years since poor Michael Fish told the British public there was no hurricane coming and that cost many lives. A hurricane/Tropical Storm/Storm whatever you want to call it has never approached Ireland like this one did

Debbie, 1961. Almost a carbon copy.

People say that some Czech site got it spot on by predicting it wouldn't be so bad up north.

Every model on the planet was saying the same, as were Met Éireann.

MJohnston · 17-10-2017 9:36pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Based on my Facebook feed people in Donegal are roundly annoyed and in disbelief that their days were put upside-down and kids had two days off school because of a moderately breezy evening. People are obviously aware that the warning was warranted in the south but Donegal and the whole northern half of the country barely warranted an orange warning never mind a 'put your life on hold and stay indoors' red warning for conditions that will be replicated probably 50 times over the next 5 months.

I think on the whole the met handled this very well and undoubtedly saved lives so I have no criticism in that sense, its just that red warnings should be reserved for genuinely dangerous conditions which was never forecast to be the case for the NW. If we have one of our more typical winter storms that warrants a red warning in Donegal and Mayo in the coming months then people will definitely hark back to this one and doubt its authenticity

There's a genuine argument to be made that Donegal and Sligo could have been left off the nationwide warning, as MT mentioned before. But on the other hand, you look at the kind of models and guidance that were available on Sunday morning, when they made that nationwide red call, and maybe they weren't so sure at the time:

MCSKYl8.png?1

MJohnston · 17-10-2017 9:50pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Met Éireann are qualified meteorologists. There are other bodies qualified in their own fields. They all come together to discuss the situation, each contributing their expertise to the table. I'm not sure what other qualifications you think Met Éireann have that allows them to look outside the meteorologial POV? There are other bodies qualified for that.

I guess I mean that they are expert enough to not have to adhere to strictly defined meteorological criteria for what triggers a particular warning level, but should be able to use discretion in understanding how dangerous particular conditions could be.

I don't think there was the massive uncertainty on Sunday that you claim. Even Joanna herself repeated many times that it didn't matter what exact track it took.

There definitely was, and the charts are all there in the Technical thread to back that up. A slight easterly change in the track would have had the strongest winds hitting the eastern coasts from a different direction, which would have made a big difference to their impact.

Compared to other wind storms, such as recent hurricanes, I don't think you can consider it "massive amounts of damage". Just look at Barbuda

I was talking about that in an Irish context. Barbuda isn't comparable in many many ways.

sdanseo · 17-10-2017 9:51pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Debbie, 1961. Almost a carbon copy.

One of only two only other comparable events in history on a national scale, and certainly the only other storm so organised when it hit us. No question if we had warnings back then it would have been a national red as well.

Steopo · 17-10-2017 9:56pm

Definitely Yes for me but I can understand the technical argument on why people might say it should have been Orange for some regions. Met.ie publish very definitive guidelines on what determines a Yellow/Orange/Red and actual results which Gaoth Laidir shows in a previous post will likely show that only SouthWest/South/SouthEast regions fell properly into 'Red' zone with most other regions Orange and some Yellow and that is also largely what the forecast was saying in advance.

But IMO we should really only use those Met E technical numbers as a guideline. The main purpose of weather warning systems is to alert authorities and public on the impending dangers for safety reasons so that they can take appropriate actions to protect property and life. Red "implies that recipients take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions" Given the widespread power outages and trees down across all counties (possibly except Sligo/Donegal and some northern counties) and the dangers of falling trees I think it's impossible to argue that the outcome didn't fall into the wording definition of Red countrywide. I think Met E made a very wise judgement to ignore the technical guidelines (which I'm sure they knew was likely Orange for lot of counties) and go with the assumption that unusually high winds in central and eastern counties and the unpredictably of this type of storm would mean lots of trees down, flying debris and damage to property during a busy working day and 100% correct decision in the interest of public safety which is surely the purpose of weather alerts.

Met E & NECC also know that the public will react completely differently to an Orange warning than a Red warning so sometimes common sense outways the technical guidelines

One point to note - a lot of posts above mention a Red warning issued on Sunday morning/lunchtime. The actual communication to the public that there was a country wide red warning was pushed to RTE at 8.07pm on Sunday evening.

Should also be noted that Meteoalarm (alerting system for extreme weather in Europe) had the whole country as a Red warning. I like their wording and again to me the end result for almost the whole country fell into their Red category.

Green -No particular awareness of the weather is required.

Yellow - The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.

Orange - The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.

Red - The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

George Sunsnow · 17-10-2017 9:57pm

People in areas less affected in my opinion giving out about the 2 days off school have little to be worrying about
It’s a symptom of the Facebook age that people better off saying nothing end up expressing opinions validly enough held that needn’t be expressed at all

The reason the dept got involved ordering schools to close was because they feared some wouldn’t shut even in the first red areas
I spoke to one teacher in west cork on Sunday whose school wasn’t closing for example
Given the poor man in Louth,a fairly northern county died from a falling tree,I think erring on the side of caution and compelling closures with the red was prudent

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 9:59pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I guess I mean that they are expert enough to not have to adhere to strictly defined meteorological criteria for what triggers a particular warning level, but should be able to use discretion in understanding how dangerous particular conditions could be.

https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp

The philosophy underlying the issuance of Weather Warnings by National Meteorological Services has developed considerably over the past few decades. Internationally, much research has been carried out on the effects of extreme weather, and this has led to an increased focus on the “Impacts” of extreme weather rather on the statistical meteorological rarity of the extremities themselves. Thus the timing and location of the occurrence of extreme weather can significantly affect the impact which extreme weather may have on society, or on the economy.

Hence the need for the NECC, comprising Met Éireann and several other bodies. Meterorological data are the primary input into the decision-making process. The data never looked like - not turned out like - anything like the criteria listed below on a national level:

Weather Element
Criteria for Red - Severe Weather Warnings

1. Wind
Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h
Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h

2. Rain
70mm or greater in 24 hrs
50mm or greater in 12 hrs
40mm or greater in 6 hrs

3. Snow/Ice
Significant falls of snow likely to cause accumulations of 8 cm or greater below 250 m AMSL. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation likely to worsen.

4. Low Temperatures
Minima of minus 10C or lower expected. Maxima of minus 2C or lower expected.

5. Fog
No Criterion – not displayed.

6. High Temperature
As Orange criterion, but persisting for two or more consecutive nights.

7. Thunderstorms
No Criterion – not displayed.

8. Coastal Wind Warnings
Violent Storm Force 11 or greater. (Mean Speeds)

Anyway, it's all ifs, buts and maybes at this stage so no point in talking it to death. I just think that we may not see a national Red Warning issued again for a very long time.

Incidentally, it's laughable that only 8 cm of snow warrant a red level, but that's for another day.

TheQuietFella · 17-10-2017 10:01pm

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

Matter of some debate in the main chat thread.

Some posters (including myself) believe Met E overstepped the mark by extending Fridays Red Warning Countrywide.

Many believe that Met E were correct & this decision saved many lives.

I've stuck up a poll to gauge the public support for this decision, feel free to contribute.

Also, I'm aware I'm posting this poll in the Lions Den so to speak as the prevailing opinion is in favour of Met E.
I am prepared to reconsider my position should the perceived prevailing opinion rule me incorrect.

Did not enough people die for you to justify their actions in your mind?

kippy · 17-10-2017 10:02pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Based on my Facebook feed people in Donegal are roundly annoyed and in disbelief that their days were put upside-down and kids had two days off school because of a moderately breezy evening. People are obviously aware that the warning was warranted in the south but Donegal and the whole northern half of the country barely warranted an orange warning never mind a 'put your life on hold and stay indoors' red warning for conditions that will be replicated probably 50 times over the next 5 months.

I think on the whole the met handled this very well and undoubtedly saved lives so I have no criticism in that sense, its just that red warnings should be reserved for genuinely dangerous conditions which was never forecast to be the case for the NW. If we have one of our more typical winter storms that warrants a red warning in Donegal and Mayo in the coming months then people will definitely hark back to this one and doubt its authenticity

You don't think there were genuinely dangerous conditions up north?
Check the report here:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/storm-ophelia-a-county-by-county-damage-report-1.3258433
Which mentions plenty northern counties and plenty after effects of the weather yesterday.

Again there was an air of the unknown about the weather yesterday, I think making granular decisions based on such pointless things as county borders (does the weather care when it passes a county border for example) when the size of the weather front being dealt with was bigger than the entire country would have been foolish.

I heard lots of people with similar attitudes here in Galway today - some of the posts earlier in this thread have been pointed out to them.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 10:05pm

Steopo wrote: »

I think Met E made a very wise judgement to ignore the technical guidelines (which I'm sure they knew was likely Orange for lot of counties) and go with the assumption that unusually high winds in central and eastern counties and the unpredictably of this type of storm would mean lots of trees down, flying debris and damage to property during a busy working day and 100% correct decision in the interest of public safety which is surely the purpose of weather alerts.

So based on that we can expect plenty of national Red warnings this winter, with the numerous winter storms with gusts above 90 kph we get.

civdef · 17-10-2017 10:06pm

When it comes to storms in Ireland, it'd actually pretty simple, the main killer is falling trees (as was so tragically proven again yesterday). If you get a lot of trees falling you will have a genuine threat to the safety of the public.

It was clear that the wind levels predicted for Ophelia were going to result in significant numbers of falling trees- especially given the time of year (leaves still on trees).

There's more to a Red warning than just simple wind speed calculations.

Met Eireann's explanation of the warning levels makes this clear:

Given that the thrust of the Weather Warnings service is on potential “Impacts” of weather rather than on the numerical values attained by the weather elements themselves, it may on occasion be appropriate to issue warnings at a level higher than that strictly justified by the anticipated weather elements.

https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp

My job is in emergency response management. I was at a coordination meeting Sunday morning when my county was Orange, and we were ****ting it, because we knew that if it stayed Orange the roads were going to be particularly busy at the time of the peak winds (schools and then businesses emptying out). At that stage we fully expected to be dealing with serious road incidents involving trees (and the inherent risks in sending crews out to deal with them). The message from our group that went up to the National Emergency Coordination Group was that we felt the risk to public safety warranted a Red warning.

When the national Red warning came on Sunday evening there was an awful lot of relief among emergency services that now we would have less potential for harm due to less people out and about.

During the 2014 event we had 3 trees land on vehicles in this county- the Red alert was declared that day when the winds had already hit (Met Eireann's review admitted this was too late).

This time we had more than twice as many fallen tree incidents as 2014 - but no occupied cars were hit, because there were far, far fewer on the road.

The decision to use the system correctly and base the warning level on impact levels rather than purely numerical values saved lives yesterday, and I'm very grateful for the work of Met Eireann staff in helping the country prepare.

MJohnston · 17-10-2017 10:09pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Hence the need for the NECC, comprising Met Éireann and several other bodies. Meterorological data are the primary input into the decision-making process. The data never looked like - not turned out like - anything like the criteria listed below on a national level

Hmm, have to disagree, the Coastal Wind Warnings might well have been met for the entire country, but they certainly looked like they could have been in several models. The ECM I posted above there is just one of them.

flaneur · 17-10-2017 10:11pm

Met Éireann made a perfectly sane decision and it has prevented problems.

There was confusion being caused by lack of coordination. A lot of state and private bodies ranging from the HSE, to individual hospitals and even bin companies were not on the ball and were managing to provide conflicting information.

For example at one stage the HSE were saying that outpatients appointments were postponed while the country’s largest hospital, CUH, was tweeting the exact opposite advice while being located in the middle of one of the most highly impacted areas.

There needs to be a review of how communication is handled during these events and perhaps a chain of command type structure in place for ensuring that you don’t end up with “too many cooks” type stations with conflicting information.

Met Éireann however did a great job and I think they need to have a more prominent and public role in weather emergency planning.

It’s not inconceivable that we will see more frequent serious weather events.

kippy · 17-10-2017 10:14pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

So based on that we can expect plenty of national Red warnings this winter, with the numerous winter storms with gusts above 90 kph we get.

No

Steopo · 17-10-2017 10:17pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

So based on that we can expect plenty of national Red warnings this winter, with the numerous winter storms with gusts above 90 kph we get.

Not necessarily but if 90kph winds always result in major damage to property and life then I'd recommend that Met E review their criteria for Red from 130kph to 90kph. But we know it's not that simple because some westerly counties can cope much better with a 90kph wind than a heavily populated area like Dublin generally not used to such winds. Then some storms have other factors like high tide, heavy rain etc.. so I'm saying let the technical numbers be the guide but let judgement of the experts be the decision on alert based on the expected regional impacts.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 10:23pm

civdef wrote: »

When it comes to storms in Ireland, it'd actually pretty simple, the main killer is falling trees (as was so tragically proven again yesterday). If you get a lot of trees falling you will have a genuine threat to the safety of the public.

It was clear that the wind levels predicted for Ophelia were going to result in significant numbers of falling trees- especially given the time of year (leaves still on trees).

There's more to a Red warning than just simple wind speed calculations.

Met Eireann's explanation of the warning levels makes this clear:

https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp

My job is in emergency response management. I was at a coordination meeting Sunday morning when my county was Orange, and we were ****ting it, because we knew that if it stayed Orange the roads were going to be particularly busy at the time of the peak winds (schools and then businesses emptying out). At that stage we fully expected to be dealing with serious road incidents involving trees (and the inherent risks in sending crews out to deal with them). The message from our group that went up to the National Emergency Coordination Group was that we felt the risk to public safety warranted a Red warning.

When the national Red warning came on Sunday evening there was an awful lot of relief among emergency services that now we would have less potential for harm due to less people out and about.

During the 2014 event we had 3 trees land on vehicles in this county- the Red alert was declared that day when the winds had already hit (Met Eireann's review admitted this was too late).

This time we had more than twice as many fallen tree incidents as 2014 - but no occupied cars were hit, because there were far, far fewer on the road.

The decision to use the system correctly and base the warning level on impact levels rather than purely numerical values saved lives yesterday, and I'm very grateful for the work of Met Eireann staff in helping the country prepare.

You appear to be speaking from a county point of view. It sounds like the red was warranted in your county anyway. However, this refers to the national warning. A lot of the counties in the country we not only "just" below Red criteria, they were barely Orange. Some were most certainly Red. Your point on trees in leaf refers to these counties but not all.

It's all to easy to take the easy way out and just go national with the Red. If that's the decision process in future - to go national with Reds when the the data are screaming no - then it's a ridiculous situation.

Irish Steve · 17-10-2017 10:27pm

Donegal doesn't have too many double decker buses or railways that can be adversely affected by high winds either, and nothing like the population density that other parts of the country has, so there are different criteria to apply to the risks, and that's nothing to do with personal safety.

If the eye of the storm had gone up the eastern side of the cone of probability that the Hurricane centre projected rather than the western side, we'd very likely to have been having a very different discussion about the damage in Donegal, and that was one of the criterial that ME had to apply before the event. We have the luxury of being able to look at it after the event, which is a very different situation.

No, it might not have met the specific criteria for the speeds of wind, but in so many other respects, the overall balance of risk meant that it did, and that the risk was national. That was the decision, and it was (for me) the only one they could make

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 10:29pm

Steopo wrote: »

Not necessarily but if 90kph winds always result in major damage to property and life then I'd recommend that Met E review their criteria for Red from 130kph to 90kph. But we know it's not that simple because some westerly counties can cope much better with a 90kph wind than a heavily populated area like Dublin generally not used to such winds. Then some storms have other factors like high tide, heavy rain etc.. so I'm saying let the technical numbers be the guide but let judgement of the experts be the decision on alert based on the expected regional impacts.

All counties - including those in the east - get >90 kph gusts at least once in a year, yet we've never had national warnings before. I don't see why yesterday was any different.

java · 17-10-2017 10:31pm

Given the widespread and volume of trees and esb poles down, the national red warning, without doubt, prevented more deaths.

kippy · 17-10-2017 10:33pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

All counties - including those in the east - get >90 kph gusts at least once in a year, yet we've never had national warnings before. I don't see why yesterday was any different.

There's actually no point in trying to convince you otherwise.
You are dead right, yesterday was just a regular standard weather event.

Shemale · 17-10-2017 10:36pm

Absolutely right going red.

As for those bellends kite surfing being rescued, the lives of the emergency services should not be put in risk by people who should be winning Darwin Awards and it must have cost the taxpayer at least €100,000 too.

Drives me spare, idiots being recused at huge cost to taxpayer when the money could be put into disability or elderly services.

Steopo · 17-10-2017 10:37pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

All counties - including those in the east - get >90 kph gusts at least once in a year, yet we've never had national warnings before. I don't see why yesterday was any different.

I don't recall seeing graphic below at least once a year - that's why it was so different in my view. Trees were down in nearly every county.

I don't think we're going to agree but I think it's a healthy debate to challenge the calling of the Red alert.

Irish Steve · 17-10-2017 10:38pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

All counties - including those in the east - get >90 kph gusts at least once in a year, yet we've never had national warnings before. I don't see why yesterday was any different.

The difference was that yesterday was only the second time in nearly 60 years that a weather system had the potential to cover the entire country at the same time with extreme conditions that were likely to last for a considerable period of time, which is why the response had to be different. Once the National Red was decided, it made it much easier for Bus Eireann and Irish Rail (to mention just 2) to make decisions about their whole network. IR removed over 200 trees from the network after the event, we have no way to know how many BE routes were blocked by trees, the implications of a train or bus accident as a result of hitting a downed tree are the sort of implications that going Red nationally helped prevent.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 10:43pm

Irish Steve wrote: »

The difference was that yesterday was only the second time in nearly 60 years that a weather system had the potential to cover the entire country at the same timewith extreme conditions that were likely to last for a considerable period of time, which is why the response had to be different. Once the National Red was decided, it made it much easier for Bus Eireann and Irish Rail (to mention just 2) to make decisions about their whole network. IR removed over 200 trees from the network after the event, we have no way to know how many BE routes were blocked by trees, the implications of a train or bus accident as a result of hitting a downed tree are the sort of implications that going Red nationally helped prevent.

No it didn't. Some of the country, yes, but it was never severe over the whole country at the same time. Dublin Bus stopping services at 10 am? Come on, that's a bit Irish.

Anyway, I've given my opinion so I won't go on.

civdef · 17-10-2017 10:46pm

java wrote: »

Given the widespread and volume of trees and esb poles down, the national red warning, without doubt, prevented more deaths.

In 10 years of my current job, I have experienced only 2 extreme wind events that resulted in multiple trees falling within a short timeframe. Darwin and Ophelia.

Both were correctly rated Red, the difference was that the 2014 rating came after the trees had already started falling, i.e. way too late to be any use.

A red warning needs a good few hours of advance notice to be any use at all, but you're never going to get certainty prior to an event.

It's a small country, so I don't think a nationwide red is overkill where there is a chance that any part of the country could be involved.

Donegal Storm · 17-10-2017 10:47pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

People in areas less affected in my opinion giving out about the 2 days off school have little to be worrying about
It’s a symptom of the Facebook age that people better off saying nothing end up expressing opinions validly enough held that needn’t be expressed at all

The reason the dept got involved ordering schools to close was because they feared some wouldn’t shut even in the first red areas
I spoke to one teacher in west cork on Sunday whose school wasn’t closing for example
Given the poor man in Louth,a fairly northern county died from a falling tree,I think erring on the side of caution and compelling closures with the red was prudent

If north Donegal is forecast to see stormy conditions next month but all evidence says your part of the country will just get breezy for a few hours, would you be happy to be told that your hospital appointment has been cancelled and that you need to organise babysitters for your kids for two days? As I said it probably saved lives so I can't really criticise the met, its just that the line has to be drawn somewhere, we can't have blanket red warnings every time there's a bit of wind.

Would the met perhaps have been influenced by the NHC? Their wording and phrases used to describe the storm were certainly far more Americanised in terms of hype than I've ever seen before.

Definitively saying it'd be the worst storm in over 50 years, calling it unprecedented, saying sustained winds of 60kts are totally unheard of etc is in total contrast to their usual style of playing things down

kippy · 17-10-2017 10:50pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

If north Donegal is forecast to see stormy conditions next month but all evidence says your part of the country will just get breezy for a few hours, would you be happy to be told that your hospital appointment has been cancelled and that you need to organise babysitters for your kids for two days? As I said it probably saved lives so I can't really criticise the met, its just that the line has to be drawn somewhere, we can't have blanket red warnings every time there's a bit of wind.

Would the met perhaps have been influenced by the NHC? Their wording and phrases used to describe the storm were certainly far more Americanised in terms of hype than I've ever seen before.

Definitively saying it'd be the worst storm in over 50 years, calling it unprecedented, saying sustained winds of 60kts are totally unheard of etc is in total contrast to their usual style of playing things down

Where is this evidence presented before the event you are talking about that suggested Donegal would only experience "breezy" conditions?
Does the evidence presented since the event suggest that Donegal "only" had breezy conditions?

Of course the met were influenced by the NHC - they are the experts in this area.

Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

Comments