Malaysia Airlines plane shot down in Ukraine near Russian border[Mod warning post#193

Irish Steve · 22-07-2014 5:50pm

In a (possibly futile) attempt to get the thread back on track, some specific news relating to MH17.

It has been announced this afternoon that the UK AAIB will be processing the FDR and CVR of MH17 on behalf of the Dutch and Malaysian authorities.

I would be reasonably confident that their report will be based on the information they gain from the devices, and will be as accurate as is possible, they have a long track record of investigating serious accidents and incidents over a long period of time, and have proved their status as one of the leading investigation authorities in the world.

smurfjed · 22-07-2014 9:27pm

I'm curious about what people expect to find from the CVR/FDR? Personally i think that the CVR will have their request to/from ATC to climb to a specific flight level and maybe even a frequency change. After that, depending on the synergy between the 2/3 or even 4 crew members in the cockpit, you might just get a lot of silence or a debate on a mundane personal or company topic. Then there will be a muffled noise followed by chaos. As for the FDR, it will show a lot of normal readings followed by an ever increasing list of EICAS messages and system failures, until it loses the ability to record anything else. None of this is going to be pleasant and it certainly won't answer the question about who pulled the trigger!

Am I missing something? Do you expect them to learn anything else from the devices?

ProfessorPlum · 22-07-2014 9:36pm

smurfjed wrote: »

Am I missing something? Do you expect them to learn anything else from the devices?

Well I suppose it might put to bed the theory that Ukrainian ATC lead them to spot x so they could be shot down by the Ukrainian military in order to frame the Russians.:roll eyes:

ProfessorPlum · 22-07-2014 10:30pm

Red Nissan wrote: »

It's typically only thirty minutes of recordings. They were on that course longer than that.

It's typically 2 hours of voice, and the entire flight of data.

Can you post a link to the evidence they were 'off course'?

YbFocus · 22-07-2014 11:20pm

Christ almighty,

I don't post that much in the Aviation forum, but I almost always read it.
It is always a forum that holds back all the non professional crap so we can see this from an aviation point of view.

This thread started out as such but has turned into a complete shambles, at this stage I'd be better off in the After Hours variant.

Can we please return to the points this forum should cover and have less of the conspiracy theories, bush/putin is better etc and equivalent crap.

Red Nissan · 22-07-2014 11:32pm

YbFocus wrote: »

Can we please return to the points this forum should cover and have less of the conspiracy theories, bush/putin is better etc and equivalent crap.

I think, that this incident, hate calling it that, but this shooting down of a civilian aircraft by military weapons designed to shoot down NATO and US bombers invading the USSR sort of transcends common boundaries in all meanings of the phrase.

And I do actually agree, in this ONE incidence, that After Hours are kicking your asss, metaphorically speaking, in the aviation forum, where I personally have people who don't actually understand aviation or the various radars in use, so that does not bode well for the aviation forum, tbh, like. Seriously.

We expect a higher standard and actual knowledge, it has not, rightly or wrongly, been presented in the 'technical' forum.

YbFocus · 22-07-2014 11:40pm

Red Nissan wrote: »

I think, that this incident, hate calling it that, but this shooting down of a civilian aircraft by military weapons designed to shoot down NATO and US bombers invading the USSR sort of transcends common boundaries in all meanings of the phrase.

And I do actually agree, in this ONE incidence, that After Hours are kicking your asss, metaphorically speaking, in the aviation forum, where I personally have people who don't actually understand aviation or the various radars in use, so that does not bode well for the aviation forum, tbh, like. Seriously.

We expect a higher standard and actual knowledge, it has not, rightly or wrongly, been presented in the 'technical' forum.

I always see here as a place with great knowledge, it still has that but it's been infected by the outsiders to the point where the regulars have given up.

During the MH370 thread it was a wealth of info and although it was a horrible situation also (and remains such) I found it thrilling reading.

Please can we get this back on track as this is where I go for info as I know it will be correct and well explained for people like myself (an avid planespotter with a bit of knowledge).

Five Lamps · 22-07-2014 11:59pm

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Well I suppose it might put to bed the theory that Ukrainian ATC lead them to spot x so they could be shot down by the Ukrainian military in order to frame the Russians.:roll eyes:

Surely the 14km of course that is reported is not unusual? In any case the flight route was well known and would pass over contested territory anyway. If the Ukrainians were up to no good, they wouldn't have to interfere with it's flight plan.

mbur · 23-07-2014 12:06am

Some earlier gems

Jack1985 wrote: »

Very good piece from the NY Times below. The shrapnel blast probably killed a lot of those on-board before the actual crash, also it does seem the aircraft was critically affected but didn't explode until impact with the ground, apparently too of the bodies missing are crew can't help but think the majority are cabin crew who were probably catapulted from the aircraft.

Without going into gory details, on the NY times is says that bodies which were unclothed were already free of the aircraft before impact, so it would suggest a definite break-up before final impact. Doesn't bare thinking about.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/21/world/europe/wreckage-offers-clues-on-why-flight-17-went-down.html

weisses wrote: »

I go with the version below

BY DEFEENCE CONSULTANT AND RADAR EXPERT THOMAS WITHINGTON
Both Ukraine and Russia have the SA-11 Surface to Air Missile (SAM) system. At its heart of the SA-11 is the ‘Fire Dome’ radar used to detect hostile aircraft and to guide missiles to their targets. This radar can detect aircraft at a range of 17 nautical miles and at up to 72,100 feet, twice the altitude that MH17 was reportedly flying when it was hit.
Crucially, the radar is equipped with an Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system. The IFF is designed to ensure that the missile system’s operator never shoots down friendly or innocent civilian aircraft by mistake. It receives electronic signals transmitted by an aircraft’s transponder containing details of its identity and its altitude, known in aviation jargon as a ‘squawk’. This information is displayed next to the aircraft’s ‘blip’ on the radar screen to identify it.
If the IFF was, for any reason, not working then it would not have been possible for the operator to determine the identity of the aircraft that they are seeing. Instead their screen would be covered with blips, but no information on what these blips represents. The operator could shoot a missile, but they would have no real idea of what they were shooting at. To deploy a surface-to-air missile system without a working IFF is to court disaster; not least because you may shoot down one of your own aircraft by mistake.
Presuming that the IFF was functioning, an experienced radar operator would understand that the IFF information on their screens accompanying these blips represented airliners. They would also know that the flight patterns of the blips on their screens were consistent with airliners flying predictable courses, at predictable altitudes along busy air corridors.
Put simply, to the trained operator, a radar screen provides a wealth of detailed information of what is flying above them. To the inexperienced operator, it is nothing more than an array of illuminated dots annotated with letters and numbers.
Was an inexperienced radar operator on a hair trigger responsible for shooting down MH17? Did they launch a missile at what they thought was a large military aircraft without understanding that they were shooting at an airliner?
If the IFF was not working, why was the missile system even deployed? Did Russian-backed forces not realise that this would bring a very significant risk of shooting down an innocent aircraft?
If the SA-11 operator did not understand what they were shooting at, or if the SA-11 was deployed without a working IFF, then those responsible are guilty of supreme criminal negligence. However, if they knew what they were shooting at, then they are guilty of mass murder.

The NY time analysis has the missile approaching from the front so our negligent/murderous belligerents were pretty quick at making up their minds.

That idea to explode the missile before impact so that the target is sprayed with mach3.5 scrapnel is pretty neat. The guy who thought of that probably got a medal. Sickening.

Irish Steve · 23-07-2014 12:33am

We expect a higher standard and actual knowledge, it has not, rightly or wrongly, been presented in the 'technical' forum.

The harsh reality is that while we know the outcome, MH17 ended up as a smoking heap on the ground, despite many hours of reporting, speculation and the feeding frenzy that has been apparent in all of the media since the event, we DON'T know exactly what happened on the day, and the majority of the aviation people on this forum have been very specifically trained at significant cost to deal in facts, and make decisions based on those facts, so they've not been particularly active in this thread.

Like it or not, we do not have those facts, and speculation about what might or might not have happened, or who did what, or why, is not going to put MH17 back into the sky, or do anything to turn the clock back.

The next complication is that in the immediate aftermath of the event, there was a lot of confusion, a number of misleading statements, some of which are no longer available, so determining the truth of events, however good or bad that truth is, may not be possible, and the manner in which the crash scene was managed, or mis managed, will also have had an effect on the ability of accident investigators to determine exactly what happened.

The FDR and CVR may be able to help the investigators determine what happened, in terms of how the aircraft was immediately affected by the (presumed) missile, and if power was not lost immediately, what systems and controls were disrupted by the initial event, or by subsequent events.

From a lot of (often painful) reading that I have done over the years, the investigators should have been able to learn a lot from the crash site, but that ability was significantly compromised in the days following the event, some of the evidence has now been corrupted in ways that will make it impossible to determine some events and their sequence.

A lot of significant information would have been available from the combination of the CVR and FDR, and the crash scene, some of that information has been lost or compromised, but given how thorough the UK AAIB are in their investigations, they will extract as much as is possible from the information that is still available and valid, and the final report will reflect those findings.

Some of the information will not be released into the public domain, as it will have been captured by systems that are operated or controlled by the military, and they will be reluctant to reveal exactly how much data they have, or how accurate that data is, for obvious reasons. It will however have been used as confirmatory evidence by politicians and the like, and that use without disclosure has done nothing to make arriving at the truth any easier

That's before we get into the whole ideology of the two sides of a deeply rooted and deeply felt dispute that is happening in the Ukraine. Europe has been a very unstable part of the world, especially in parts of the East, and there is a massive cultural difference between the East and West of Europe, which won't be quickly or easily resolved or changed.

While Russia now is not Communist Russia of a few years ago, it most assuredly is NOT Western, and the Russian culture is very different from that of the West. What has changed is the economic interdependence of Russia and Europe, there are trade links in place now that if disrupted would have very damaging effects on both Europe and Russia, so there is a clear reluctance to become involved in things like sanctions, and a people on the ground war is just not an option, how ever some people might like to see it.

Then there is the whole destabilising effect of fundamentalist Islam. which is a factor in many of the disputes that are happening around the world.

Most of this has nothing to do with aviation, other than that the instability of many places has now spilled over into the world of aviation, and as such, it is being discussed here.

So, in some respects, it's very possible that the After Hours thread, and maybe even threads in the Conspiracy theory forum will have more "meat" than the thread here, which is a result of the absence of hard verifiable facts that can be relied on and that can be used as a basis to make decisions. I'm not completely sure if we should be happy or sad that we don't have a lot to go on in the aviation thread.

What is clear is that the events of the last few days are different from the events of 9/11, but the effect on world aviation is likely to be every bit as significant, as I'm typing this, Sky News are reporting that the FAA has banned American carriers from operating into Ben Gurion in Israel, and a number of other carriers are also suspending services because of the risk to aircraft from the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

If routes that overfly "sensitive" areas such as Syria, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, and possibly Egypt and Lybia are deemed to be unsafe, there are going to be significant problems for a number of carriers that operate in those areas, finding acceptable alternate routes to avoid those areas will not be simple.

billie1b · 23-07-2014 12:38am

Red Nissan wrote: »

No it was not, against the target, we have a chicken tied to the barn door and blasted with a shotgun type of situation, that's not a reflection on how effective the shotgun or the missile system is in its intended usage/

The missile from the BUK system is designed to detonate before impact to cause maximum damage due to the shrapnel from it impacting its intended target, so yes, it destroyed its target the way it was supposed to

Atlantic Dawn · 23-07-2014 12:41am

My thoughts on the whole thing...I believe it was an accidental shooting down by seperatists not intent on killing inocent civilians, however what I don't yet know is if there was a troop transporter of a similar radar footprint why would it be so far east in Ukraine there doesn't appear to be any airport to the east under Ukrainian control that the plane would be going to and a parachute out of troops wouldn't be likely.

Irish Steve · 23-07-2014 12:47am

Red Nissan wrote: »

No.

What was it designed to take out?

A hint, this jet was traveling at about a half mach.

At the risk of being pedantic, the cruise speed of a 777 is .84, so considerably faster than half Mach.

Growler!!! · 23-07-2014 12:49am

Red Nissan wrote: »

No.

What was it designed to take out?

A hint, this jet was traveling at about a half mach.

Come on man, at least look up your facts.

Typical speed of a 777 at cruising altitude is between .80 and .84 Mach

Red Nissan · 23-07-2014 12:58am

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

My thoughts on the whole thing...I believe it was an accidental shooting down by seperatists not intent on killing inocent civilians, however what I don't yet know is if there was a troop transporter of a similar radar footprint why would it be so far east in Ukraine there doesn't appear to be any airport to the east under Ukrainian control that the plane would be going to and a parachute out of troops wouldn't be likely.

To be honest, we are not looking at that level of sophistication, we have a group of guys most likely former CCCP too, who have been indoctrinated with defense, Russia would not be here, without deference and cold winters, and ultimately the defense of the Ukraine when Hitler was after it, lost him the war, but we still come down to a defense battery that 'simply' fired on anything, though they were expecting a 'Government' plane and looking out for it.

They were going to fire on anything. The missile could take down a Mach 3 spy plane.

Tenger · 23-07-2014 2:41am

I am back from my hols and have had the opportunity to read over the last 10-15 pages of this thread. Quite frankly its got so long now that new posters are not reading previously warnings and/or answers to questions. Adding to that,the level of bitchiness and outraged posts are turning it into a debacle. I have approx 10-15 Reported posts and Pm's all from this thread.

Below I have posted some examples of unwanted posting style. This is not complete list and is not meant to single out any particular posters. In 20 hours from now I will be off work and looking to see if further temp bans are required. No more geo-politics, no more hoax/set-up/Western/Russian media bias arguments.

billie1b wrote: »

No he probably told them to shoot down military a/c but due to their stupidness and low IQ level (much like your own) they got a pax jet instead.

Here we have an example of the type of posts that are making a mess of this thread. Attack the post not the poster.

mickmackey1 wrote: »

I don't think ISIS will take over in Syria, both the west and Russia will keep Assad there.

Nothing to do with MH17

Azwaldo55 wrote: »

Murder is the intentional killing of an innocent person.

The rebels thought they were firing at an Ukrainian military plane - they had shot down a series of Ukrainian military planes in recent days and weeks.

They made a boo boo but didn't commit murder.

This level of moral dissection is not required in A&A. The shootdown may have been mistaken in target but it was intentional in action.

And the term 'boo-hoo' is completely inappropriate with nearly 300 civilians dead

Cookiemunster wrote: »

.....
Maybe you should improve you're actual aviation knowledge before questioning others.

No need to be so rude to another poster who's post was less than 100% correct.

youreadthat wrote: »

Putin is pretty much the definition of evil. I'm sure if Cameron came out as harboring feelings of hope that one day the UK could retake Ireland you'd not board the "let's look at it from his POV before slating him" train. .....

Off topic and irrelevant to this discussion.

Gringo180 wrote: »

I can tell you one thing. He hasn't as much blood on his hands as the likes of Bush, Blair or Obama has, who I bet you wouldn't betray as evil.

Geo-politics is not required here.

YbFocus wrote: »

.....Please can we get this back on track as this is where I go for info as I know it will be correct and well explained for people like myself (an avid planespotter with a bit of knowledge).

knucklehead6 wrote: »

i personally DON'T have a problem with conspiracy theories. But i DO have a problem with them in threads where people are discussing an incident like this....... Especially after the forum mods have asked for them not to be here

Stallingrad wrote: »

...I would almost propose locking this thread for 24 hours to let everyone calm down, and as a mark of respect for those lost.

Well if it continues to derail I will lock it. I'm back from my hols so able to watch more closely.

Peregrine · 23-07-2014 6:06am

Tenger, could we have an updates thread like MH370?

There isn't much to discuss on this right now and it's awfully upsetting having to read page after bickering page of this thread(or AH for that matter) to stay updated on the incident.

smurfjed · 23-07-2014 8:18am

A hint, this jet was traveling at about a half mach.

this just demonstrates the lack of technical knowledge that some posters actually have?

Syria, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, and possibly Egypt and Lybia

Try avoiding those areas and still route from Europe to Asia. Its not easy! I am concerned that certain groups will now have seen how much of a reaction that they can get by shooting down just one aircraft, with the amount of military grade equipment left behind or captured in Libya, Syria and Iraq, I'm concerned that some nutter of a general will decide to repeat this devastating attack in a different place.

Call me Al · 23-07-2014 8:39am

Has anyone read details about the other military planes that were taken down in this area in the run- up to this tragedy? It would be interesting to know what analysis was made of the missile used. If the capacity to down planes with this type of equipment was known then,not to mention the presence of trigger happy rebels, then maybe a no-fly zone should have been considered more seriously than appears to have been the case?

Tenger · 23-07-2014 8:47am

Call me Al wrote: »

Has anyone read details about the other military planes that were taken down in this area in the run- up to this tragedy? ....?

BBC had that info up....I read it last night. If I recall correctly it was an SU-25 and an IL-76. However I would guess the Ukrainians area bit cagey about giving out that info so maybe were less than upfront....and if those aircraft went down in rebel held areas then no on-site analysis would be possible.

weisses · 23-07-2014 10:46am

Story now emerging that 5 countries (their intelligence services)knew about the possible Danger flying over that area and instructed their carriers to avoid it ( except for a small exception)
ECA now says that if that information was shared among all carriers (pilots) this tragedy wouldn't have happened

Countries are:
US
France
Canada
GB
Australia

Shocking if true

Jack1985 · 23-07-2014 11:10am

weisses wrote: »

Story now emerging that 5 countries (their intelligence services)knew about the possible Danger flying over that area and instructed their carriers to avoid it ( except for a small exception)
ECA now says that if that information was shared among all carriers (pilots) this tragedy wouldn't have happened

Countries are:
US
France
Canada
GB
Australia

Shocking if true

Explains why all US carriers, Air France, Air Canada, BA and Qantas has been avoiding Eastern Ukraine. Interesting to note Virgin Atlantic had been overflying the Ukraine up until the day if this disaster.

Jawgap · 23-07-2014 11:18am

How Social Sleuthing Uncovered Evidence of Surface-to-Air Missile Systems in Eastern Ukraine

Reports emerged in the immediate aftermath of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 on July 17 that members of a Russian backed separatist militia had possession of a ‘Buk’ surface-to-air missile system prior to the incident. Evidence points to the separatists being in possession of the Russian-made ‘Buk’ missile system, or SA-11, which is capable of the attack which targeted the passenger plane, resulting in the loss of all 298 people on board.

As images and videos purporting to show the missile system in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine began to flood in, Storyful, alongside other journalists and social media experts in our Open Newsroom and elsewhere, worked to verify this information and determine the veracity of these claims. From the images and videos, we were able to determine that members of the Donetsk People’s Republic separatist militia, at the very least, did appear to have access to an anti-aircraft system capable of an attack like the one carried out on MH17.

ProfessorPlum · 23-07-2014 11:23am

Red Nissan wrote: »

A hint, this jet was traveling at about a half mach.

Well that's it solved then! Mach .5 at FL330. No missile involved, airplane probably stalled.

Thank God someone on this forum has some good info :rolleyes:

Jack1985 · 23-07-2014 11:29am

A1044/14 NOTAMN
Q) EHAA/QFAXX/IV/BO /A /000/999/5218N00446E005
A) EHAM

1407231350
C) 1407231402
E) ON THE OCCASION OF THE NATIONAL DAY OF COMMEMORATION
OF THE MH17 VICTIMS,
A ONE MINUTES SILENCE PERIOD WILL BE OBSERVED ON
JULI 23RD 2014 FROM 1400 TILL 1402.
ATC WILL TAKE MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT PILOTS
WILL NOT TAXI OR LAND DURING THE ABOVE MENTIONED PERIOD.
PILOTS OF DEPARTING ACFT WILL NOT GET AN ATC CLEARANCE.

the_monkey · 23-07-2014 12:53pm

Black Boxes arrive in the UK for analysis :

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/22/mh17-black-boxes-farnborough-malaysia-airlines

MH17 black boxes arrive in Farnborough for analysis

AAIB experts will examine chain of events using data from voice and flight recorders belonging to Malaysia Airlines plane

Ukraine rebels hand over MH17's black boxes to Malaysian government officials in Donetsk Photograph: IBL/REX

The black boxes from flight MH17 have made a long journey from eastern Ukraine to a building set in woodland just outside Farnborough airport in Hampshire, the headquarters of the UK's Air Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB).
There, experts from the AAIB – considered one of the world's pre-eminent specialists in air crash analysis – will download the data from the two instruments, the voice data recorder and the flight data recorder. This process will not take long.
A spokesman for the Department for Transport, of which the AAIB has been a part since 2002, said: "They're confident that, depending on the level of damage, they will be able to retrieve the information within 24 hours and they'll feed it back into the investigation. We're not able to go into detail about anything else."
This task, while vital, will be only a tiny part of the overall work to determine exactly what caused the Malaysian Airlines flight to come down, killing 298 people.
The voice recorder carries two hours of cockpit audio recording. Analysts looking into crashes will examine not just what the pilot and co-pilot say but also any telltale clicks as instruments are engaged, as well as possible sounds of an explosion. On the assumption that MH17 was hit by a missile it seems unlikely the pilots' actions played any role, but everything must be analysed.
The data recorder, which like the voice instrument is encased in a protective shell of metal and insulation, collects an entire flight's worth of information from dozens of sensors, which on modern planes can total several terabytes of data.
While downloading the information should be a speedy process, it is likely to take weeks for it to be analysed in tandem with examination of the remnants of the aircraft.
The full report on the crash of Air France 447, the Airbus A330 that came down in the Atlantic en route to Rio de Janeiro, was published a year after the recorders were recovered from the bottom of the ocean.
MH17's recorders were in the hands of pro-Russia rebels before they were handed to Malaysian investigators. Experts say it would be extremely difficult to tamper with the data, and the memory cards used in the recorders have serial numbers matched to those on the recorders so they cannot be secretly substituted.

Terrabytes ???? surely this is a mistake ? I would have thought the CDR is all text - logs, commands etc ...

Growler!!! · 23-07-2014 1:38pm

the_monkey wrote: »

Black Boxes arrive in the UK for analysis :

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/22/mh17-black-boxes-farnborough-malaysia-airlines

Terrabytes ???? surely this is a mistake ? I would have thought the CDR is all text - logs, commands etc ...

Yep, with everything being digital theses days it's very easy to integrate all types of data from a variety of systems and sensors.

smurfjed · 23-07-2014 1:58pm

it's very easy to integrate all types of data from a variety of systems and sensors.

True, but the B777 is a 20 year old design. I'm surprised that the amount of date is measured in TB.
Reading from the Honeywell site, it says that "their" units are capable of recording 2 hours of audio and 25 hours of aircraft data. From outputs that i have seen, all of the data is in text format.

Maximus Alexander · 23-07-2014 2:02pm

the_monkey wrote: »

Terrabytes ???? surely this is a mistake ? I would have thought the CDR is all text - logs, commands etc ...

Just wrote a quick sample program to test this, printing random values to a log file. I'll attach it below and if you have a Java compiler you can try it yourself, just change the extension from .txt to .java and compile.

It generated a 3GB log file in 60 seconds, so I'd well believe it.

smurfjed · 23-07-2014 2:37pm

Maximus, would you have considered dealing with TB capacities 20 years ago?

Malaysia Airlines plane shot down in Ukraine near Russian border[Mod warning post#193

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