Time to burn Greece?

jimmycrackcorm · 27-10-2011 10:58am

I cannot fathom, how, based on the riot images and perpetual strikes, there appears to be such a gulf between the Greek people and their government. They should hold a general election and ask the people what they want - austerity or something worse. We've already had this same opportunity in February.

srsly78 · 27-10-2011 11:06am

This greek government is the new one

The old government they had was the one that was cooking the books etc. Sure the people would love to go back to lying about their finances and pretending everything is ok.

Scofflaw · 27-10-2011 11:33am

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I cannot fathom, how, based on the riot images and perpetual strikes, there appears to be such a gulf between the Greek people and their government. They should hold a general election and ask the people what they want - austerity or something worse. We've already had this same opportunity in February.

The problem is partly that, unlike here, the Greek government is not dealing with a unified people. Some of the Greek rioting has consisted of battles between communists and anarchists, which is an indicator that the potential for civil strife in Greece is a lot higher. than here One of the reasons they were desperate to cook the books and get into the euro for cheap borrowing and high spending was that the Greek government has to keep a potentially seriously divided body politic happy by lavishing money on everyone, while simultaneously keeping military spending high to engage in sabre-rattling with the one enemy the Greeks can all agree on - the Turks.

The Irish may grumble about certain people, or groups of people under austerity as much as we adulated them in the boom, but there's no serious division in Irish society that reacts to the pressure of austerity by lining up the people on different sides of an ideological divide and saying that if the other side were only eliminated everything would be fine.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Monty Burnz · 27-10-2011 12:28pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

The problem is partly that, unlike here, the Greek government is not dealing with a unified people. Some of the Greek rioting has consisted of battles between communists and anarchists, which is an indicator that the potential for civil strife in Greece is a lot higher. than here One of the reasons they were desperate to cook the books and get into the euro for cheap borrowing and high spending was that the Greek government has to keep a potentially seriously divided body politic happy by lavishing money on everyone, while simultaneously keeping military spending high to engage in sabre-rattling with the one enemy the Greeks can all agree on - the Turks.

The Irish may grumble about certain people, or groups of people under austerity as much as we adulated them in the boom, but there's no serious division in Irish society that reacts to the pressure of austerity by lining up the people on different sides of an ideological divide and saying that if the other side were only eliminated everything would be fine.

cordially,
Scofflaw

If the Greeks don't cop on, the prospect of a failed state within the EU is not beyond the bounds of possibility. They have plenty of terrorist groups waiting to capitalise on the instability to murder their way towards their ideological goals...

Scofflaw · 27-10-2011 12:34pm

Monty Burnz wrote: »

If the Greeks don't cop on, the prospect of a failed state within the EU is not beyond the bounds of possibility. They have plenty of terrorist groups waiting to capitalise on the instability to murder their way towards their ideological goals...

Sure - to be honest, I'm not sure what happens then, and I don't think anyone else does either. The situation is unprecedented.

cordially,
Scofflaw

27-10-2011 1:27pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

Sure - to be honest, I'm not sure what happens then, and I don't think anyone else does either. The situation is unprecedented.

cordially,
Scofflaw

The EU fumbles the issue but is forced to act when Turkey reacts to the situation.
Of course the US would be putting all sorts of pressure on Europe so rather than the situation being unprecedented an organisation simply would never be allowed to get past say, ETA levels.

Icepick · 27-10-2011 4:46pm

The new deal solves nothing except for saving rich people's money and certain political careers ... for a while.

Greek economy is fundamentally flawed and should be kicked out of the Eurozone. We could write-off 80% of their debt if they could pay of the rest by selling state assets or write off 100% and be done with it.

A lot of this debt is held by Greek and other EU banks so the debt wasn't written off as much as just shifted.

Scofflaw · 27-10-2011 4:49pm

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

The EU fumbles the issue but is forced to act when Turkey reacts to the situation.

I'd go with the first bit, but not the second.

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

Of course the US would be putting all sorts of pressure on Europe so rather than the situation being unprecedented an organisation simply would never be allowed to get past say, ETA levels.

I think the difference with Greece is that the potentially violent groups have wider support.

cordially,
Scofflaw

beeftotheheels · 01-11-2011 12:09am

I think we're seeing a much more convincing endgame than that announced post summit. Summit agreement buys 2-3 months being vaguely feasible yet unlikely to actually achieve anything (detail anyone?). Papandreou calls a referendum he knows he cannot win while the National Bank dusts off the printing press and starts printing drachma.

No one admits anything, everyone expresses shock at the actions of the Greek Government. Pressure continues on Berlusconi to resign.

2-3 months down the road and before private sector involvement in the current deal is set in stone the referendum is held and lost, Greece exits stage left into a disorderly (yet reasonably well planned) default and returns to the drachma outside the EU but everyone can claim it is democratic and the will of the Greek people.

The hell fire that rains down on Greece soon afterwards serves as a warning to Ireland and the other PIIGS (ideally with new Italian Premier) to get their houses in order, and with the only "officially" insolvent member of the club out of the way, the ECB can claim that it is now dealing with a pure liquidity crisis and therefore its involvement in the secondary markets carries no risk of creating a transfer union, so they too can dust off the press.

Might just be capable of saving the euro and the EU (or at least more capable than the current plan). Shame about Greece.

Also explains Sarkozy's comments about Greek entry into the Eurozone being a mistake.

I seem to recall Lex suggested a Greek exit as a plan to save the euro several months back. Perhaps they will turn out to be right.

Of course this could be wishful thinking on my part, I just cannot believe that the results of the summit were any kind of resolution.

Scofflaw · 01-11-2011 9:45am

beeftotheheels wrote: »

I think we're seeing a much more convincing endgame than that announced post summit. Summit agreement buys 2-3 months being vaguely feasible yet unlikely to actually achieve anything (detail anyone?). Papandreou calls a referendum he knows he cannot win while the National Bank dusts off the printing press and starts printing drachma.

No one admits anything, everyone expresses shock at the actions of the Greek Government. Pressure continues on Berlusconi to resign.

2-3 months down the road and before private sector involvement in the current deal is set in stone the referendum is held and lost, Greece exits stage left into a disorderly (yet reasonably well planned) default and returns to the drachma outside the EU but everyone can claim it is democratic and the will of the Greek people.

The hell fire that rains down on Greece soon afterwards serves as a warning to Ireland and the other PIIGS (ideally with new Italian Premier) to get their houses in order, and with the only "officially" insolvent member of the club out of the way, the ECB can claim that it is now dealing with a pure liquidity crisis and therefore its involvement in the secondary markets carries no risk of creating a transfer union, so they too can dust off the press.

Might just be capable of saving the euro and the EU (or at least more capable than the current plan). Shame about Greece.

Also explains Sarkozy's comments about Greek entry into the Eurozone being a mistake.

I seem to recall Lex suggested a Greek exit as a plan to save the euro several months back. Perhaps they will turn out to be right.

Of course this could be wishful thinking on my part, I just cannot believe that the results of the summit were any kind of resolution.

In other words, Greece is being offered the opportunity to set fire to itself?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Tazz T · 01-11-2011 11:01am

No hellfire will rain down on Greece.

Public sector people will lose their jobs. Many people will move back to their family homes on the islands and live off the land like they did in the past.

Sure, there'll be austerity, but that was going to happen anyway. No money to pay back, so no austerity measures needed for that. Redistribute the money already in the economy. Don't worry, be happy. That's the Greek way.

And, unlike us, they get to keep the most important thing of all - their sovereignty.

beeftotheheels · 01-11-2011 11:13am

Scofflaw wrote: »

In other words, Greece is being offered the opportunity to set fire to itself?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Exactly (although they're already smoldering). Remember the comment by Noonan on the 5th of October which I thought at the time would be picked up by the press outside Ireland but wasn't (I had no hopes that the Irish press would realize what he said)?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1005/breaking60.html

Current EU actions have a huge democratic deficit, this would amend that.

From the Greek perspective while the GGBs are under Greek law Greece can effect a hard default hitting every holder including the ECB to actually get its debt down to sustainable levels (below 100% GDP) but they cannot burn the ECB and remain in the eurozone (I don't think they can do it and remain in the EU).

Even with a couple of months planning I doubt it will be a nice experience which should ensure that all other PIIGS follow our lead, elect a national unity government and stick to the plan.

Only question then is whether Schaubian housewife economics has already plunged the EU back into recession or whether a convincing end to the debt crisis could pluck us back out again....

Damian_ir · 01-11-2011 3:01pm

Tazz T wrote: »

And, unlike us, they get to keep the most important thing of all - their sovereignty.

Don't be sure about that. Turkey' s smart strategy is to attack always when Greece is weak.

The only deference now is that Turkey has pissed off Israel with its policy in middle east and the situation would be most complicated. This is the Greeks hope.

By the way, parliamenters starts to abandon George Disaster Papandreou. There is a chance that the political partie of Papandreou will collapse. Most of them are talking for new movement to assemble a combined political group of left and right to handle the extreme situation.

I think that what ever they try to do is useless cause it is too late.

Bullseye1 · 01-11-2011 3:17pm

Looks like the Greeks want to burn everyone else first

Scofflaw · 01-11-2011 3:20pm

I think that what ever they try to do is useless cause it is too late.

Whether you think you can do something or not, you're probably right.

gnomically,
Scofflaw

Damian_ir · 02-11-2011 7:24am

Damian_ir wrote: »

Don't be sure about that. Turkey' s smart strategy is to attack always when Greece is weak.

The only deference now is that Turkey has pissed off Israel with its policy in middle east and the situation would be most complicated. This is the Greeks hope.

By the way, parliamenters starts to abandon George Disaster Papandreou. There is a chance that the political partie of Papandreou will collapse. Most of them are talking for new movement to assemble a combined political group of left and right to handle the extreme situation.

I think that what ever they try to do is useless cause it is too late.

On top of that, yesterday , one parliamenter has abandon Papandreou's partie and became independend in the parliament. One more will probably do the same.

If just two more resign, then only the Military can be used by him to stay in charge.

Perhaps this is the reason , that this political imposter and above all this traitor, decided yesterday to change the heads of Army, Airforce and Navy.

That puppet, that traitor, that political corpse, the raper of Greek constitution, a major washing machine of Siemens briefcases, the worst of its kind, hasn't realise that 11 millions in the country and 6 millions Greeks abroad, are against him.

anymore · 03-11-2011 1:46pm

The Sunday Times in an article on greece quoted the case of one Katerina Constantinou who is worried; she retired at age of 52 from accounts dept of a Greek State TV station on a pension 0f € 27,000 ! Her husband who is 72 also has a pension. If he had been working in that tv station, then presumably he would have picking up a pension for 18/20 years as well.
Just why should Greece not be left to its on devices ?

Damian_ir · 04-11-2011 8:47am

anymore wrote: »

Just why should Greece not be left to its on devices ?

There is no reason.

The best that should be done is let Greece to drachma.

Greece will be able to recover quicker and probably more people will survive, than staying in the eurozone. The only major danger is a local war between Greece and Turkey. When they will occupy an island, they will stop and start again their colonization, like they did in Cyprus in 1974.

Most of the people in Greece will survive. On the other hand, staying in the eurozone, in less than 10 of the 20 years of austerity, hundrends of thousand people will die due to lack of food and medicine.

On the other hand, Eurozone will solve all of its problems. Greece is the black sheep that should be eaten by the wolf, for the prosperity of the Europeans to become true.

jetfiremuck · 04-11-2011 3:46pm

Lads Greece is only a small thorn in the side. That their prime minister can hold Europe to ransom shows how fragile this house of cards is. Its Italy where the real underlying problem is.bthey havent had the white light treatment yet. Wait and see

ei.sdraob · 04-11-2011 3:50pm

jetfiremuck wrote: »

Lads Greece is only a small thorn in the side. That their prime minister can hold Europe to ransom shows how fragile this house of cards is. Its Italy where the real underlying problem is.bthey havent had the white light treatment yet. Wait and see

Holding europe ransom by trying to consult the electorate? What sort of a upside down Orwellian doublespeak world has this become

Scofflaw · 04-11-2011 4:16pm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Holding europe ransom by trying to consult the electorate? What sort of a upside down Orwellian doublespeak world has this become

It hasn't - had it been part of the negotiations from the start it would have been quite above board, as it is when it comes to Ireland negotiating EU treaties. What made it something of a case of holding Europe to ransom was that it was sprung on Greece's negotiating partners after they thought the deal was sealed and had announced it.

So while I very strongly support a Greek referendum (which sadly looks like it won't go ahead), the annoyance and market upset it caused is real and justified.

Mind you, I don't think it was done to hold Europe to ransom, and certainly if it was nothing was gained by it (and predictably so) - it was advertised as being necessary to get the Greeks to face up to their choices, and that's what I think is the case. Certainly it appears to have actually done so to some extent merely as a threat.

cordially,
Scofflaw

cyberhog · 07-11-2011 8:22am

beeftotheheels wrote: »

So a transaction which Greece entered into in 2009 (eight years after they joined the euro) allowed them to keep some debt off their balance sheet. As Goldman's were the counter-party to this transaction we can accuse them of exporting accounting fraud to Greece???

In a word,Yes.

Wall Street tactics akin to the ones that fostered subprime mortgages in America have worsened the financial crisis shaking Greece and undermining the euro by enabling European governments to hide their mounting debts.

One deal created by Goldman Sachs helped obscure billions in debt from the budget overseers in Brussels.

...

Instruments developed by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and a wide range of other banks enabled politicians to mask additional borrowing in Greece, Italy and possibly elsewhere.

...

Critics say that such deals, because they are not recorded as loans, mislead investors and regulators about the depth of a country’s liabilities.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/business/global/14debt.html?pagewanted=all

Greg Palast's latest piece is must read for those who don't know the background on Goldman's dirty dealings.

...

When the new Socialist government of George Papandreou came into office, they opened up the books and Goldman's bats flew out. Investors' went berserk, demanding monster interest rates to lend more money to roll over this debt.

Greece's panicked bondholders rushed to buy insurance against the nation going bankrupt. The price of the bond-bust insurance, called a credit default swap (or CDS), also shot through the roof. Who made a big pile selling the CDS insurance? Goldman.

And those rotting bags of CDS's sold by Goldman and others? Didn't they know they were handing their customers gold-painted turds?

That's Goldman's specialty. In 2007, at the same time banks were selling suspect CDS's and CDOs (packaged sub-prime mortgage securities), Goldman held a “net short” position against these securities. That is, Goldman was betting their financial "products" would end up in the toilet. Goldman picked up another half a billion dollars on their "net short" scam.

But, instead of cuffing Goldman's CEO Lloyd Blankfein and parading him in a cage through the streets of Athens, we have the victims of the frauds, the Greek people, blamed. Blamed and soaked for the cost of it. The "spread" on Greek bonds (the term used for the risk premium paid on Greece's corrupted debt) has now risen to — get ready for this––$14,000 per family per year.

...

http://www.gregpalast.com/lazy-ouzo-swilling-olive-pit-spitting-greeksor-how-goldman-sacked-greece/

McDave · 08-11-2011 9:14pm

Papandreou dug his own grave. The referendum he proposed might have made sense on one level (e.g. rounding up popular support for the hard decisions ahead). However, what he proposed was a referendum on accepting the deal.

IMO that was a wholly inappropriate tack. His Eurozone partners correctly understood that a referendum could have only been meaningfully about being in or out of the Eurozone. Why? Because a No vote would have been seen as a pitch at renegotiating the deal. And that's no way to do crisis business on the multilateral stage.

Greece has been given an enormous digout through the 50% haircut. It has effectively been put on a debt par with Italy. It's up to them to sort out their current account and prove they can stabilise their situation. They should just get on with it. If they can't even do that, then it really is time to consider burning Greece. Let's hope it doesn't get to that.

maninasia · 09-11-2011 3:11am

If they burn Greece they burn their own banks too but in a very unpredictable way which will also damage their plans for other countries...that's the problem and why they were willing to give Greece such a big haircut.

So just saying 'burn Greece' is really not constructive and actually self-harm.

Damian_ir · 09-11-2011 12:48pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQzzTtc6flk

beeftotheheels · 09-11-2011 10:49pm

Question now is who the next PM will be (and why it is taking so long to announce)?

jetfiremuck · 09-11-2011 11:06pm

Its now strange that as greece and now italy are needing further bailouts that it comes with a change of government. This is ominous. Are the replacements going to be emf henchmen. At least the greeks were putting it to the people. Did anyone notice that the us stock market took a dump today. Roll on spain and portugal.

Noreen1 · 10-11-2011 1:33am

I was actually thinking something similar today.

Irelands request for a bailout led to a change in Government.

Greece, and now Italy will also have a change in Government.

I wouldn't go so far as to say the new Governments will be anyones henchmen - but it's a safe bet that the Bailouts are deeply unpopular with electorates throughout Europe, whether the electorate being bailed out, or the electorate doing the bailing out...

A Europe built on Democratic principles? Hmm...

It doesn't appear to be working very well, does it?

ArmaniJeanss · 10-11-2011 1:44am

Noreen1 wrote: »

I was actually thinking something similar today.

Irelands request for a bailout led to a change in Government.

Greece, and now Italy will also have a change in Government.

.....it's a safe bet that the Bailouts are deeply unpopular with electorates throughout Europe, whether the electorate being bailed out, or the electorate doing the bailing out...

Portugal has had a recent change of government as well.

But I don't quite see your point - I doubt any of the electorates voted out the prior government because of applying for and taking the bailout, it was more because of the general mismanagement of the countrys finances which led to the need for a bailout in the first place.
Its hard to bankrupt a country and retain popular support.

K-9 · 10-11-2011 2:28am

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Portugal has had a recent change of government as well.

But I don't quite see your point - I doubt any of the electorates voted out the prior government because of applying for and taking the bailout, it was more because of the general mismanagement of the countrys finances which led to the need for a bailout in the first place.
Its hard to bankrupt a country and retain popular support.

Indeed, FG and Labour didn't oppose the bailout, just particular parts. SF was about the only party that did and got 10%.

Time to burn Greece?

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