Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

dudara · 17-10-2017 3:19pm

They made the right call. In such situations you have to warn early and warn often (and even then, some people still won't hear it). By doing so on Sunday they gave everyone time to prepare.

HeidiHeidi · 17-10-2017 3:19pm

MJohnston wrote: »

This has all been said already, but I'd like to write my thoughts down as I think the context for these decisions is easily forgotten and already was being lost yesterday, never mind a couple of months down the line.

The important thing when judging this decision is to try and rid your mind of all hindsight, because nobody at ME is psychic, so far as I know. Then you have to consider the context:

First thing to remember is that on Saturday and Sunday, multiple models were giving slightly different tracks that altered the course of the storm by the most marginal of degrees. However, in an Irish context, those marginal degrees were the difference between the more westerly track the storm did take, and one that was maybe 50 miles more easterly. Had the track been more easterly, it would have more significantly affected the east coast than the strong effects it did have.

The second piece of context is that the judgement call for warning levels made on Sunday morning was inarguably going to be the one that had the most impact. Issue a nationwide Orange warning, with Red warnings for the southwest, and then change that on Sunday evening, and you would have had complete chaos. People in the newly affected Red Warning areas would be caught completely unprepared, never mind the local authorities that relied on those warnings to get ready.

Put those 2 things together, and the result is this - Met Eireann had to make a call on Sunday morning at the latest as to what they thought the worst conditions Ophelia could bring might be. They had to do this with the benefit of a lot of meteorological insight that was just imprecise enough to not be able to narrow the potential effects to a specific area of the country.

Now you can start thinking about all the other things that are relevant to this judgement call in hindsight:

1. I don't think anybody at all is arguing that the Red warnings for the southwest counties weren't warranted, that is being widely accepted as the right call and an extremely necessary one.
2. People outside of the track of the modelled worst effects of the storm died (particularly the poor fellow in Ravensdale who was out long before the storm was due to truly impact that part of the country).
3. Belfast, Dublin and many other cities that were 'less affected' had countless amounts of trees that collapsed onto roads. As we sadly saw with 2 of the deaths, that is extremely dangerous.

Now throw that hindsight together with the original context that I wrote about:

If you think that the red warnings for the Southwest were justified, and you accept that Met Eireann had to make their call by Sunday morning at the latest, and you understand that at that point the forecast models were showing small differences in track that would have resulted in more easterly effects, you have to come to the conclusion that the red warnings were justified for the entire country.

There's one other thing to consider, and I posted this in another thread, and I'll just use the metaphor I did there:

Think about how in the lead up to the year 2000, there was a lot of hype and anxiety about the Y2K bug. Perhaps you didn't live through that, but it was a huge story, which was that a core, date-based flaw to computer systems could cause widespread system failures, or even just a ****load of software bugs that would be annoying as hell. So, in 1999 there was an absolutely huge global effort to upgrade affected systems and software to be "Y2K Compliant". For the most part a vast majority of people took the advice and everyone rushed to have their devices and their apps ready and prepared. Certainly nearly all the vital systems like Air Traffic Control or power station automation were 'fixed'. People though were still very anxious about what would happen come the new year.

Fast forward to January 1st 2000, and lo-and-behold, airplanes didn't fall out of the sky, and nuclear power stations didn't explode.

Yet, the response wasn't "Great, we avoided this huge catastrophe (or this huge pain in the ass at the very least) by preparing for it and being ready". No, the response was "That Y2K thing was a whole load of bull****, nothing happened!".

Can you see the flaw in the logical thinking there?

To bring it back to the topic, we had a Red Warning countrywide, and as a result lots of people prepared for the storm, and made arrangements to be able to stay indoors and safe at home. Businesses stayed closed, public transport operators kept their vehicles and drivers off the streets. And as a result of that, the response should be "Great, we avoided further widespread deaths and injuries by preparing for it and being ready", and people who don't want to respond that way should consider what might have been the alternative.

I'd like to see this printed in all the national newspapers/websites, for maximum exposure.

The amount of "pah, what was all the fuss about" I'm hearing around the place has me sickened.

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2017 3:25pm

The poll is somewhat skewed by the wording of option (c) which is what I just voted for.

The "other position" would have been to extend Friday's original red warnings to a larger group of counties. IIRC the original warnings were for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Kerry, and Cork. There was quite a bit of discussion here about adding Limerick, Waterford, Wexford and then some other counties.

Perhaps if the warning had been extended to all counties except Ulster, Mayo and Sligo that might have come closer to being meteorologically valid. But then most of the criticism of the nationwide designation seems to originate in Dublin and probably they would have been in this somewhat less comprehensive almost everywhere red warning and we'd be having this discussion anyway.

So really what it boils down to is, should a red warning have included Dublin. As the system is county oriented, if the forecasters think a condition red would apply somewhere in the county, they have to include it. Probably at no time did anyone there or here or in any forecast group think that everywhere in Dublin county (which I understand is an outdated concept in political terms but not relevant to this warning system) was going to see red criteria met, but perhaps coastal locations and a scattering of inland locations. Also it was becoming more possible with later model runs that there could have been a more eastward track shift at the last minute (which did not happen) and that might have produced more widespread red conditions in Dublin. And another relevant point was that Kildare was looking more likely to see widespread damaging gusts as part of the inland surge from the south coast so with a lot of people routinely travelling from Kildare to Dublin that would have been a consideration.

The perfect compromise might have been to leave some other counties out, but given that they were well into orange warning potential and the already widespread nature of the red warnings, it made sense administratively to go with the entire country.

So I was torn between voting for the nationwide option or this third option, depending on whether you think the question is mainly a public safety question or a meteorological question (this storm illustrated how the two things are not necessarily exactly the same).

Neamhshuntasach · 17-10-2017 3:42pm

No. Early Sunday, just from even looking at the technical thread on here and reading comments from some of the more reliable posters. It could be told that most of the east coast would not be too bad. And certainly not warrant a red warning. So it's not all hindsight. I had been telling friends and relatives all up to Saturday night to take it seriously and not dismiss it. But by Sunday i was telling them that it won't be as bad for the east.

I've lived in both hurricane and tornado prone areas and when a highest level warning is issued and something doesn't materialize. The rational thought of many isn't, oh well at least the precaution was taken. It erodes confidence in future warnings. That's what happened me after evacuations and hitting the storm cellar over the years. You begin to take them less seriously as hindsight beings to influence one each time.

I had bins out that didn't fall and i also stuck an old towel on the line with 2 pegs and it stayed there. That was in Malahide. Just to give an indication of how "bad" it was out here. I just hope that if a storm does track this way in the future and legitimately warrants a red alert in now cast, that people don't refer back to Ophelia and say, well sure that wasn't bad despite all the hype.

HeidiHeidi · 17-10-2017 3:47pm

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

No. Early Sunday, just from even looking at the technical thread on here and reading comments from some of the more reliable posters. It could be told that most of the east coast would not be too bad. And certainly not warrant a red warning. So it's not all hindsight. I had been telling friends and relatives all up to Saturday night to take it seriously and not dismiss it. But by Sunday i was telling them that it won't be as bad for the east.

I've lived in both hurricane and tornado prone areas and when a highest level warning is issued and something doesn't materialize. The rational thought of many isn't, oh well at least the precaution was taken. It erodes confidence in future warnings. That's what happened me after evacuations and hitting the storm cellar over the years. You begin to take them less seriously as hindsight beings to influence one each time.

I had bins out that didn't fall and i also stuck an old towel on the line with 2 pegs and it stayed there. That was in Malahide. Just to give an indication of how "bad" it was out here. I just hope that if a storm does track this way in the future and legitimately warrants a red alert in now cast, that people don't refer back to Ophelia and say, well sure that wasn't bad despite all the hype.

And what if the storm hadn't taken that slight turn westwards, that couldn't be forecast in advance?

What about all the trees and slates that fell and roofs that lifted in the eastern counties that would have fallen on busy roads/locations had everyone not been on "Red Alert" and mostly stayed indoors?

The fact that your teatowel stayed on the line is neither here nor there, to be honest.

sjb25 · 17-10-2017 3:54pm

Yes better to over react than under react and you are left scrambling.

I work in the emergency services and we have a saying when thinking do you need extra resources at an incident which some people may see as an over reaction its "better to be looking at them than looking for them"
Same principal here do it instead of wishing you had
over react have everything you may need in place if you don't then happy days it wasn't that bad.

So they wer absolutely correct mostly everyone is safe unfortunately 3 people lost their lives but mostly everyone is safe who cars bout a day of production or business lost.

In some places yes it was an over reaction in some places it was not it was a dynamic situation nobody could tell for sure so a red alert everywhere was reasonable.

hmmm · 17-10-2017 4:08pm

I saw a picture of a tree down earlier in Dublin which would more than likely have landed on a car if it was rush hour traffic.

There is an unfortunate balancing act here, you can't shut down the entire country even if lives are at risk. However I think it was reasonable to project that with a large "unknown" hanging over an unprecedented weather event, which would almost certainly lead to lots of fallen trees, downed power lines and flooding, the death toll would have run into double figures if a strong warning was not given.

In the end I think most "essential" staff stayed working which is probably the right balance. I don't think the HQ of any foreign multinational is going to be put off investing in Ireland because of our reaction to a one-off weather event - they'll be more surprised the place isn't in bits after what was said in the media to be our first experience of a hurricane.

elperello · 17-10-2017 4:21pm

There are people walking around today who would be in hospital or even worse without the warning.
So yes they did the right thing.

uck51js9zml2yt · 17-10-2017 4:26pm

I had advised my son's school principal on Sunday afternoon to close with the orange warning having followed the threads here.

Red was the right call. A little to the east would have been a disaster.
More people on the roads would have been disastrous.

TheAnalyst_ · 17-10-2017 4:28pm

spurious wrote: »

No children were killed on their way to school.
Good enough for me.

They should have it every day then just to be safe. And cars limited to 5mph just to be safe because a life trumps everything.

Harry Palmr · 17-10-2017 4:30pm

The only thing they got wrong was that they waited too long before issuing it, it was clear enough that the eastern half of the country was not going to be let off Scott free by Ophilia and as long as yellow was in place there was an apparent reluctance to really ramp up the warnings. The NECC would have met 24 hours earlier I imagine and so we'd all have been that bit better prepared esp re schools, work and public transport and fewer people would have been going "Ah sure it'll only be a bit windy"

BoatMad · 17-10-2017 4:32pm

Rayden Purple Worm wrote: »

I had advised my son's school principal on Sunday afternoon to close with the orange warning having followed the threads here.

Red was the right call. A little to the east would have been a disaster.
More people on the roads would have been disastrous.

eastery track would have not resulted in much different damage profile. The strongest winds are well to the east of the centre anyway

The big advantage of a westerly track was the rain largely fell in the sea

donal.hunt · 17-10-2017 5:01pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The only thing they got wrong was that they waited too long before issuing it, it was clear enough that the eastern half of the country was not going to be let off Scott free by Ophilia and as long as yellow was in place there was an apparent reluctance to really ramp up the warnings. The NECC would have met 24 hours earlier I imagine and so we'd all have been that bit better prepared esp re schools, work and public transport and fewer people would have been going "Ah sure it'll only be a bit windy"

100% agree with this. The countrywide red alert was communicated on Sunday (anyone got an exact time?) without clear guidance of what that meant for businesses and transport. Issuing it on Saturday would have allowed time for consultation and clarification.

For the next countrywide / county-wide red alert, I expect that there will be a much more decisive approach taken. e.g. all public transport will end before the allotted period. All employees should have completed their journey home (or arrived in work if that makes sense). More clarity regarding what are essential services would also make sense.

Given some of the discussion around being out and about / pursuing pasttimes during an extreme weather events, clarity around expectations are worthwhile. No watersports even of you are very experienced personnel. No tree cutting until after the alert is lifted (exceptions allowed through consultantation with regional emergency committees). The fallen trees will still be there after the alert is lifted and the whole point is to minimise loss of life.

Harry Palmr · 17-10-2017 5:06pm

The RED was issued and the NECC press conference was just before lunchtime on Sunday.

endacl · 17-10-2017 5:33pm

I was about to respond to your poll, OP. Then I remembered I’m not in the least bit qualified to make that kind of decision.

I do bear in mind two facts, informed by hindsight. People died, who would otherwise be alive, as a direct result of yesterday’s storm. Therefore it was a storm with the potential to cause harm to anybody unlucky enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. The warning resulted in the vast majority of people being in th right place at the wrong time. So, my layman’s position is, they probably made the correct decision, which I won’t argue with.

M.T. Cranium · 17-10-2017 5:36pm

Well the thing is there are probably 20 or 30 people alive today who would not be alive today, but nobody knows which 20 or 30 they are so it's an abstract discussion.

If an angel appeared in your living room and said "in the alternate universe of limited warnings you were a dead man," then your attitude might be pretty positive about the extended red.

Your friends and family on the other hand ...

Hooter23 · 17-10-2017 5:43pm

Yes they were correct...I think saving lives is more important than a little bit of inconvenience caused by the red alert...Better safe than sorry

Irish Steve · 17-10-2017 5:46pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well the thing is there are probably 20 or 30 people alive today who would not be alive today, but nobody knows which 20 or 30 they are so it's an abstract discussion.

If an angel appeared in your living room and said "in the alternate universe of limited warnings you were a dead man," then your attitude might be pretty positive about the extended red.

Your friends and family on the other hand ...

Wish I could have written/posted such a clear and definitive response!

As it doesn't show unless you go to page 1, I think the present poll result is worth mentioning, the vote at present is Right 423/ Wrong 18/ Other 11, and there's under 70 posts, so there's a whole lot of people who have feelings about this, but have not chosen to specifically comment. That's good enough for me.

elperello · 17-10-2017 5:47pm

TheAnalyst_ wrote: »

They should have it every day then just to be safe. And cars limited to 5mph just to be safe because a life trumps everything.

Analyse this.

Gmaximum · 17-10-2017 5:54pm

I’m not a weather expert and in hindsight they were correct.

I think the big problem people had was the short notice of school closures and then the decision to close all schools today.

The challenge for business is how they react to these situations, just like an insurance policy they need to invest in the technology to enable people to work from home. Extreme weather and travel disruption is becoming increasingly common.

BoatMad · 17-10-2017 6:25pm

Gmaximum wrote: »

I’m not a weather expert and in hindsight they were correct.

I think the big problem people had was the short notice of school closures and then the decision to close all schools today.

The challenge for business is how they react to these situations, just like an insurance policy they need to invest in the technology to enable people to work from home. Extreme weather and travel disruption is becoming increasingly common.

The decision to close schools today could only be taken in the light of the storms progression yesterday.

Estrellita · 17-10-2017 6:41pm

Voted 'yes' the Met were correct to issue red. It really is a case of 'damned if you do, and damned if you don't' with some people. I also think it was necessary to have schools closed for the second day. Of course damage assessment would have to be done. If parents were told to send their children into potentially damaged buildings and something happened then of course heads would roll.

Prevention is better than the alternative, I don't know why it's so hard for some to comprehend that.

Sleeper12 · 17-10-2017 6:57pm

If they saved a single life then they did the right thing.

The need to lay out what a red warning means. Should people go to work or stay at home.

StripedBoxers · 17-10-2017 6:58pm

In my opinion they were absolutely 100% correct and if we were ever in such a situation again I would hope they would again issue such a warning.

There is no doubt in my mind that had they not issued it there would have been many more deaths and injuries.

I included this in a post last night, and I will include in this one too.

People seem to forget that rescue workers, guards, paramedics etc are people too and also have families, yet they don't give a rats backside about that, no, they only care when they themselves get into bother.

The emergency services were under enough pressure yesterday without it being added to unnecessarily.

Anyone who does it unnecessarily should be arrested and fined and if they are minors, then their parents should be held accountable. There is no excuse for it, none whatsoever. It's entirely selfish.

nuac · 17-10-2017 7:09pm

froog wrote: »

let's be honest here. the people whingeing are most likely business owners who care about losing some money than the safety of their staff.

Very unfair and ignorant remark about business owners

Neamhshuntasach · 17-10-2017 7:29pm

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

And what if the storm hadn't taken that slight turn westwards, that couldn't be forecast in advance?

What about all the trees and slates that fell and roofs that lifted in the eastern counties that would have fallen on busy roads/locations had everyone not been on "Red Alert" and mostly stayed indoors?

The fact that your teatowel stayed on the line is neither here nor there, to be honest.

What do you mean, hadn't taken the turn westwards? It did take a turn westwards. And well in advance of even the slightest of breezes in Dublin. I read on here that much of the east wouldn't be impacted the way the rest of the south would be. A red warning could have been rescinded for the counties it wasn't warranted in.

Of course the towel example is relevant. There will be many people that will have a similar marker of how bad it was. And if thats what a red warning was for them. They may not react when it actually is necessary and it really is a red warning for them. I've seen it time and time again from living in, Louisiana and Texas.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 7:32pm

I voted No, but also wish there was another option for extending the original red to more counties.

The countrywide warning was completely over the top and unwarranted imo. Certainly the original warning was warranted in some counties of the south and southeast, and based on the latest models overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, maybe should have been extended to include more counties through the midlands, while having the rest under Orange.

This is how we fared with gusts.

[/hindsight]

We're still waiting on the Sherkin data, which I'm sure will top the list. However, the criterion for a Red warning is

- Mean speeds >80 kph, and/or
- Gusts >130 kph

There was no indication that these thresholds would be met in the area more or less east of the Shannon or indeed in much of the north midlands and north Leinster. About 2/3 of the country always looked to be safe from such winds. As it happened, around 80% of the country was safe (see above).

Loss of life is tragic, however storms have killed before and there was never an outcry of "Why didn't they put the country on alert and tell everyone to stay indoors!?". The decision of Sunday was appropriate for the likes of Barbuda, BVI, Puerto Rico, etc., where we're talking real winds over the whole area of a country. These countries must be looking at us and scratching their heads, in between searching for more victims and rebuilding their lives.

I have a question. Why were the airports not also put on shut-down? How come the likes of bus, rail, etc. got to stay at home, yet Dublin and Shannon airports remained open? Cork, Kerry, etc. were closed. Why were the employees of Dublin and Shannon forced to come to work while others got to "sit it out" at home? Is it because of the international consequences of closing an international airport? Better to contain the consequences to a national level? It's either a national Red Alert or it isn't. It's either hazardous or it isn't. If it's not safe for a bus driver to go to work, how is it safe for an airport worker?

I'm a big fan of Met Éireann and support them 100%, however I do think they made a rash decision, no doubt under profound pressure from all angles. The data were telling them no, just like the rest of us, but they went with Red. I wonder how they privately refect on that decision now the (Saharan) dust has settled.

Having said all that, the families of the three victims must be remembered first. The rest is all irrelevant.

TheAnalyst_ · 17-10-2017 7:39pm

Exactly. If you cry wolf then you put people at greater risk for future storms.

We were told this was a once in a lifetime event yet I knew people who landed in Dublin during the height of it.

hatrickpatrick · 17-10-2017 7:45pm

They absolutely were. Even in Dun Laoghaire where I live, we had fallen trees, tree branches, and shop signs, for sale signs, other such weakly affixed heavy objects having been blown around. Some of these things became loose and got carried away by the wind in the blink of an eye without any warning at all. Would have only taken a second of bad luck for somebody to be seriously injured or worse by such projectiles - if Dun Laoghaire town had been as busy with pedestrians as it usually is, I'd state with almost 100% certainty that we'd have been hearing of very serious injuries in the area this morning.

donal.hunt · 17-10-2017 7:46pm

TheAnalyst_ wrote: »

Exactly. If you cry wolf then you put people at greater risk for future storms.

We were told this was a once in a lifetime event yet I knew people who landed in Dublin during the height of it.

I'm interested to hear the opinion of pilots regarding operating flights in these conditions. From another thread, there appeared to be a good few diversions, go-arounds, etc in Dublin airport. My sense from Ryanair was that unless the airport was closed, they were going to fly while other airlines decided it was simpler to just cancel and accommodate passengers once the weather settled today.

BrianD3 · 17-10-2017 7:47pm

ME was both incorrect and correct. Based on ME's own wind speed criteria for red and orange warnings and the projected wind speeds, it was not a red warning for much of the country.

IMO the warning system is undermined by this. It would be different if the wind speeds were a projected "red" but with hindsight turned out to be "orange".

However, perhaps the criteria need to be looked at with a weighting/multiplier applied depending on whether a storm is forecast to occur at nighttime on Christmas Eve (as happened in 1997) or during a normal school and work day.

In this case a national red warning was issued and there was a lot of media coverage. Had it been an orange warning with less media coverage there would almost certainly have been more deaths. The red warning was needed because
a) People are idiots
b) People are litigious
c) In the current jobs market employers have power to force people into doing things that they don't want to do e.g. long commutes, coming in to work during a storm

The authorities reacted to this by issuing a blanket red warning when technically an orange warning should have been issued.

The storm wasn't "unprecedented" and it's very debatable whether it was the "worst in over 50 years". Was there a need to keep repeating the word "hurricane" every few seconds. Did Joanna Donnelly really need to be teaching people the basics of driving "now if you're driving around a bend go slowly as you may come across a fallen tree".

Well based on point a) above maybe she was right!

hatrickpatrick · 17-10-2017 7:50pm

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

What do you mean, hadn't taken the turn westwards? It did take a turn westwards.

The projected westward turn came very late in the day, and that close range, the NHC can and does make mistakes - storms of that strength are unpredictable. The same thing happened with Hurricane Irma when it swung westward and missed most of the Florida peninsula at the last minute - certainly not a call anyone with responsibility for ensuring safety is going to make, IMO. If that westward wobble had been forecast a full day in advance, then maybe.

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 7:54pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

c) In the current jobs market employers have power to force people into doing things that they don't want to do e.g. long commutes, coming in to work during a storm

Forcing people to do long commutes? If you don't like the commute, either move house or move job.

George Sunsnow · 17-10-2017 7:56pm

I’m in Wicklow which wouldn’t have been red but today I saw a 4span cattle shed whose roof was torn clean off and in Arklow town a mobile home in a caravan park upturned moved and wrecked on top of another

So yeah that’s a red right there,more people might have been killed

donal.hunt · 17-10-2017 7:56pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

In this case a national red warning was issued and there was a lot of media coverage. Had it been an orange warning with less media coverage there would almost certainly have been more deaths. The red warning was needed because
a) People are idiots
b) People are litigious
c) In the current jobs market employers have power to force people into doing things that they don't want to do e.g. long commutes, coming in to work during a storm

The authorities reacted to this by issuing a blanket red warning when technically an orange warning should have been issued.

I suspect that discussion between NECC and ME resulted in the red warning being issued. i.e ME would not have issued a countrywide alert but the ability for a substantial number of people to heed the warning in their area (covering 35-50% of the country) was key. A nationwide red alert is very black and white and hard for people to justify ignoring.

It was pretty clear to me that there was a clear line between ME forecasting / providing data and the NECC who needed to make decisions that affected ~ 4.7 million people over the weekend. I think that's a good protocol to use and something that I've seen work well in other organisations before.

donal.hunt · 17-10-2017 7:58pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Forcing people to do long commutes? If you don't like the commute, either move house or move job.

With less than 24hours notice? I think not.

The reality is that they need to account for some percentage of people doing this. I'm sure why all know people who are doing 1-2 hours commutes into major urban areas (it's not just Dublin sadly) due to lifestyle choice / housing affordability.

MJohnston · 17-10-2017 7:58pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I'm a big fan of Met Éireann and support them 100%, however I do think they made a rash decision, no doubt under profound pressure from all angles. The data were telling them no, just like the rest of us, but they went with Red. I wonder how they privately refect on that decision now the (Saharan) dust has settled.

I think it's wrong to think that Met Eireann should be looking at the warning level system from an exclusively meteorological POV, which is what you seem to be suggesting in your post.

And I don't agree even from that meteorological POV - the data wasn't telling anyone 'no', there was absolutely nothing definitive about the predicted tracks of this storm, and without that, no definitive way of knowing where exactly the storm would go. There was massive uncertainty on Sunday morning in particular, which was when they made that key nationwide Red call.

As for people talking about the 'cry wolf' factor, I think that's a statement without foundation, I think there's more than enough people who will have seen that 3 people died, 2 of whom were doing nothing more 'dangerous' than driving a car. More than enough people will have seen the massive amounts of damage done to the southwest. I've chatted to my neighbours, some of whom were sceptical about the storm beforehand, and today they were mostly grateful that they missed the worst of it, because they can see the worst of it right on their TV screens.

People will remember those news reports, and those deaths, when the next warning comes around.

TheRiverman · 17-10-2017 8:05pm

Yes Met Eireann were correct.

flazio · 17-10-2017 8:05pm

nuac wrote: »

Very unfair and ignorant remark about business owners

Agree about tarring everyone with the same brush, however I have seen in another thread someone suggest they would not pay an employee who didn't turn up for work and split the owed wages to those who did turn up as a bonus. :rolleyes:
Absolutly the right call. It has been remarked over in the UK how it's 30 years since poor Michael Fish told the British public there was no hurricane coming and that cost many lives. A hurricane/Tropical Storm/Storm whatever you want to call it has never approached Ireland like this one did, there are no comparible conditions over in the Carribean or Asia in which we could make an accurate prediction as to what would happen. People say that some Czech site got it spot on by predicting it wouldn't be so bad up north. Big deal, if a camera shows me no traffic on the M50 at all, I'm not going to speed up there without a seatbelt.

Even if the next red alert, and the next turn out to be damp squibs in my area, I'm still going to take them seriously, just as I would any fire alarm even if I can't see any fire or smoke near me.
Life is too precoius to take chances on.

Oneiric 3 · 17-10-2017 8:06pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Forcing people to do long commutes? If you don't like the commute, either move house or move job.

Most people don't have the opportunity to do that F. Jobs, despite the rhetoric spewed out by the establishment, are not easy to come by. Add to this the unprecedented levels of job insecurity, personal debt etc, and you are pretty much tied down.

Lumi · 17-10-2017 8:13pm

Mod Note

Let’s get back in topic please!

This is the Weather Forum - head over to Work & Jobs if you want to discuss the ins and outs of employment

sdanseo · 17-10-2017 8:17pm

BrianD3 wrote: »

Based on ME's own wind speed criteria for red and orange warnings and the projected wind speeds, it was not a red warning for much of the country.

IMO the warning system is undermined by this.

I agreed with this yesterday at one point, to an extent, and I still agree that on a technical level there were probably small areas of the country where red conditions were not forecast on any model.

However Dublin was clearly shown on a few to be in for 150km/h + gusts at one point, even though we didn't get them. The probability was so widespread that I think the red warning made perfect sense. A huge proportion of the country was in the firing line and if the storm had been even a slight bit more intense I think we would have seen huge damage in the larger cities.

It's absolutely right for there to be debate about it because any and all of our public services have to be held to account. Would say the same about any of them, once the debate is educated and informed and not a pile of stupid twats on social media posting snapchats from the diving board in Salthill around 3pm yesterday.

But the conclusion many and myself included have reached is - overwhelmingly - yes, they were absolutely correct. There is no question at all that more fatalities and injuries were prevented by the national warning.

Fair play Met Éireann and in particular Joanna Donnelly, Evelyn Cusack and Gerry Murphy who all deserve a week in somewhere calm and sunny - on the taxpayer.

Donegal Storm · 17-10-2017 8:27pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it's wrong to think that Met Eireann should be looking at the warning level system from an exclusively meteorological POV, which is what you seem to be suggesting in your post.

And I don't agree even from that meteorological POV - the data wasn't telling anyone 'no', there was absolutely nothing definitive about the predicted tracks of this storm, and without that, no definitive way of knowing where exactly the storm would go. There was massive uncertainty on Sunday morning in particular, which was when they made that key nationwide Red call.

As for people talking about the 'cry wolf' factor, I think that's a statement without foundation, I think there's more than enough people who will have seen that 3 people died, 2 of whom were doing nothing more 'dangerous' than driving a car. More than enough people will have seen the massive amounts of damage done to the southwest. I've chatted to my neighbours, some of whom were sceptical about the storm beforehand, and today they were mostly grateful that they missed the worst of it, because they can see the worst of it right on their TV screens.

People will remember those news reports, and those deaths, when the next warning comes around.

Based on my Facebook feed people in Donegal are roundly annoyed and in disbelief that their days were put upside-down and kids had two days off school because of a moderately breezy evening. People are obviously aware that the warning was warranted in the south but Donegal and the whole northern half of the country barely warranted an orange warning never mind a 'put your life on hold and stay indoors' red warning for conditions that will be replicated probably 50 times over the next 5 months.

I think on the whole the met handled this very well and undoubtedly saved lives so I have no criticism in that sense, its just that red warnings should be reserved for genuinely dangerous conditions which was never forecast to be the case for the NW. If we have one of our more typical winter storms that warrants a red warning in Donegal and Mayo in the coming months then people will definitely hark back to this one and doubt its authenticity

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 8:35pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I think it's wrong to think that Met Eireann should be looking at the warning level system from an exclusively meteorological POV, which is what you seem to be suggesting in your post.

And I don't agree even from that meteorological POV - the data wasn't telling anyone 'no', there was absolutely nothing definitive about the predicted tracks of this storm, and without that, no definitive way of knowing where exactly the storm would go. There was massive uncertainty on Sunday morning in particular, which was when they made that key nationwide Red call.

As for people talking about the 'cry wolf' factor, I think that's a statement without foundation, I think there's more than enough people who will have seen that 3 people died, 2 of whom were doing nothing more 'dangerous' than driving a car. More than enough people will have seen the massive amounts of damage done to the southwest. I've chatted to my neighbours, some of whom were sceptical about the storm beforehand, and today they were mostly grateful that they missed the worst of it, because they can see the worst of it right on their TV screens.

People will remember those news reports, and those deaths, when the next warning comes around.

Met Éireann are qualified meteorologists. There are other bodies qualified in their own fields. They all come together to discuss the situation, each contributing their expertise to the table. I'm not sure what other qualifications you think Met Éireann have that allows them to look outside the meteorologial POV? There are other bodies qualified for that.

I don't think there was the massive uncertainty on Sunday that you claim. Even Joanna herself repeated many times that it didn't matter what exact track it took.

Compared to other wind storms, such as recent hurricanes, I don't think you can consider it "massive amounts of damage". Just look at Barbuda.

flazio wrote: »

Absolutly the right call. It has been remarked over in the UK how it's 30 years since poor Michael Fish told the British public there was no hurricane coming and that cost many lives. A hurricane/Tropical Storm/Storm whatever you want to call it has never approached Ireland like this one did

Debbie, 1961. Almost a carbon copy.

People say that some Czech site got it spot on by predicting it wouldn't be so bad up north.

Every model on the planet was saying the same, as were Met Éireann.

MJohnston · 17-10-2017 8:36pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Based on my Facebook feed people in Donegal are roundly annoyed and in disbelief that their days were put upside-down and kids had two days off school because of a moderately breezy evening. People are obviously aware that the warning was warranted in the south but Donegal and the whole northern half of the country barely warranted an orange warning never mind a 'put your life on hold and stay indoors' red warning for conditions that will be replicated probably 50 times over the next 5 months.

I think on the whole the met handled this very well and undoubtedly saved lives so I have no criticism in that sense, its just that red warnings should be reserved for genuinely dangerous conditions which was never forecast to be the case for the NW. If we have one of our more typical winter storms that warrants a red warning in Donegal and Mayo in the coming months then people will definitely hark back to this one and doubt its authenticity

There's a genuine argument to be made that Donegal and Sligo could have been left off the nationwide warning, as MT mentioned before. But on the other hand, you look at the kind of models and guidance that were available on Sunday morning, when they made that nationwide red call, and maybe they weren't so sure at the time:

MCSKYl8.png?1

MJohnston · 17-10-2017 8:50pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Met Éireann are qualified meteorologists. There are other bodies qualified in their own fields. They all come together to discuss the situation, each contributing their expertise to the table. I'm not sure what other qualifications you think Met Éireann have that allows them to look outside the meteorologial POV? There are other bodies qualified for that.

I guess I mean that they are expert enough to not have to adhere to strictly defined meteorological criteria for what triggers a particular warning level, but should be able to use discretion in understanding how dangerous particular conditions could be.

I don't think there was the massive uncertainty on Sunday that you claim. Even Joanna herself repeated many times that it didn't matter what exact track it took.

There definitely was, and the charts are all there in the Technical thread to back that up. A slight easterly change in the track would have had the strongest winds hitting the eastern coasts from a different direction, which would have made a big difference to their impact.

Compared to other wind storms, such as recent hurricanes, I don't think you can consider it "massive amounts of damage". Just look at Barbuda

I was talking about that in an Irish context. Barbuda isn't comparable in many many ways.

sdanseo · 17-10-2017 8:51pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Debbie, 1961. Almost a carbon copy.

One of only two only other comparable events in history on a national scale, and certainly the only other storm so organised when it hit us. No question if we had warnings back then it would have been a national red as well.

Steopo · 17-10-2017 8:56pm

Definitely Yes for me but I can understand the technical argument on why people might say it should have been Orange for some regions. Met.ie publish very definitive guidelines on what determines a Yellow/Orange/Red and actual results which Gaoth Laidir shows in a previous post will likely show that only SouthWest/South/SouthEast regions fell properly into 'Red' zone with most other regions Orange and some Yellow and that is also largely what the forecast was saying in advance.

But IMO we should really only use those Met E technical numbers as a guideline. The main purpose of weather warning systems is to alert authorities and public on the impending dangers for safety reasons so that they can take appropriate actions to protect property and life. Red "implies that recipients take action to protect themselves and/or their properties; this could be by moving their families out of the danger zone temporarily; by staying indoors; or by other specific actions aimed at mitigating the effects of the weather conditions" Given the widespread power outages and trees down across all counties (possibly except Sligo/Donegal and some northern counties) and the dangers of falling trees I think it's impossible to argue that the outcome didn't fall into the wording definition of Red countrywide. I think Met E made a very wise judgement to ignore the technical guidelines (which I'm sure they knew was likely Orange for lot of counties) and go with the assumption that unusually high winds in central and eastern counties and the unpredictably of this type of storm would mean lots of trees down, flying debris and damage to property during a busy working day and 100% correct decision in the interest of public safety which is surely the purpose of weather alerts.

Met E & NECC also know that the public will react completely differently to an Orange warning than a Red warning so sometimes common sense outways the technical guidelines

One point to note - a lot of posts above mention a Red warning issued on Sunday morning/lunchtime. The actual communication to the public that there was a country wide red warning was pushed to RTE at 8.07pm on Sunday evening.

Should also be noted that Meteoalarm (alerting system for extreme weather in Europe) had the whole country as a Red warning. I like their wording and again to me the end result for almost the whole country fell into their Red category.

Green -No particular awareness of the weather is required.

Yellow - The weather is potentially dangerous. The weather phenomena that have been forecast are not unusual, but be attentive if you intend to practice activities exposed to meteorological risks. Keep informed about the expected meteorological conditions and do not take any avoidable risk.

Orange - The weather is dangerous. Unusual meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Damage and casualties are likely to happen. Be very vigilant and keep regularly informed about the detailed expected meteorological conditions. Be aware of the risks that might be unavoidable. Follow any advice given by your authorities.

Red - The weather is very dangerous. Exceptionally intense meteorological phenomena have been forecast. Major damage and accidents are likely, in many cases with threat to life and limb, over a wide area. Keep frequently informed about detailed expected meteorological conditions and risks. Follow orders and any advice given by your authorities under all circumstances, be prepared for extraordinary measures.

George Sunsnow · 17-10-2017 8:57pm

People in areas less affected in my opinion giving out about the 2 days off school have little to be worrying about
It’s a symptom of the Facebook age that people better off saying nothing end up expressing opinions validly enough held that needn’t be expressed at all

The reason the dept got involved ordering schools to close was because they feared some wouldn’t shut even in the first red areas
I spoke to one teacher in west cork on Sunday whose school wasn’t closing for example
Given the poor man in Louth,a fairly northern county died from a falling tree,I think erring on the side of caution and compelling closures with the red was prudent

Gaoth Laidir · 17-10-2017 8:59pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I guess I mean that they are expert enough to not have to adhere to strictly defined meteorological criteria for what triggers a particular warning level, but should be able to use discretion in understanding how dangerous particular conditions could be.

https://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/warnings-explained.asp

The philosophy underlying the issuance of Weather Warnings by National Meteorological Services has developed considerably over the past few decades. Internationally, much research has been carried out on the effects of extreme weather, and this has led to an increased focus on the “Impacts” of extreme weather rather on the statistical meteorological rarity of the extremities themselves. Thus the timing and location of the occurrence of extreme weather can significantly affect the impact which extreme weather may have on society, or on the economy.

Hence the need for the NECC, comprising Met Éireann and several other bodies. Meterorological data are the primary input into the decision-making process. The data never looked like - not turned out like - anything like the criteria listed below on a national level:

Weather Element
Criteria for Red - Severe Weather Warnings

1. Wind
Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h
Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h

2. Rain
70mm or greater in 24 hrs
50mm or greater in 12 hrs
40mm or greater in 6 hrs

3. Snow/Ice
Significant falls of snow likely to cause accumulations of 8 cm or greater below 250 m AMSL. Slippery paths and roads due to accumulation of ice on untreated surfaces; situation likely to worsen.

4. Low Temperatures
Minima of minus 10C or lower expected. Maxima of minus 2C or lower expected.

5. Fog
No Criterion – not displayed.

6. High Temperature
As Orange criterion, but persisting for two or more consecutive nights.

7. Thunderstorms
No Criterion – not displayed.

8. Coastal Wind Warnings
Violent Storm Force 11 or greater. (Mean Speeds)

Anyway, it's all ifs, buts and maybes at this stage so no point in talking it to death. I just think that we may not see a national Red Warning issued again for a very long time.

Incidentally, it's laughable that only 8 cm of snow warrant a red level, but that's for another day.

Were Met E Correct to Extend the Red Warning Countrywide

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