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COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

Beasty

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No anti-vax stuff in this thread - it's to discuss the various vaccines available and how they are getting rolled out, as well as testing procedures

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crossman47

Economics101 wrote: »

A few quick phonecalls to private hospitals and organisations representing GPs, nursing homes etc would get an estimate that was a heck of a lot closer to the true number than the HSE seems to have got.

Also on the number of over 70s, I am sure that the CSO could provide quite good data within
a few hours: what are census data and mortality/life-expectancy tables for? And errors due to emigration or immigration would be low for the over 70s.

The more one looks into it the more of a total shambles is the HSE.

Of course CSO could provide a figure for the country but whats needed here is the number to be vaccinated in each place. The more I hear about it, the more I think GPs have not put the effort in. They must tell HSE how many patients they have, organise a timetable, etc. My own has been brilliant, everything operating like clockwork but I fear not all are like that.

eoinbn

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

https://twitter.com/OleRyborg/status/1375073391481401344

Seems like nonsense. Nobody was expecting J&J to deliver those numbers in April. It will be well into June before they deliver that amount to Denmark.

Apogee

badger54 wrote: »

Thank you. I understand what you are saying about deliveries being done for the quarter. I had assumed that the Irish Government plan would have had more precise delivery figures rather than divide total quarterly deliveries by 3 (for each of April, May and June).

Perhaps I was naive!

Journalists have been asking for this at HSE briefing. Reid/HSE say they have no hard numbers from any of suppliers - any forecasted numbers they've been given in the past have not been accurate. Ballpark numbers only.

badger54

Wolf359f wrote: »

It's not that easy, it's done per quarter and divided into weeks. Based on previous deliveries. I think people may be dissapointed if we don't get 1mil doses in April, it may end up as 700k and 1.1mil in May and then 1.2mil in June.

That's why then EU was considering changes to the export licence, to compel companies not to load all the deliveries towards the end of the quarter.

Thank you. I understand what you are saying about deliveries being done for the quarter. I had assumed that the Irish Government plan would have had more precise delivery figures rather than divide total quarterly deliveries by 3 (for each of April, May and June).

Perhaps I was naive!

IRISHSPORTSGUY

https://twitter.com/OleRyborg/status/1375073391481401344

Wolf359f

badger54 wrote: »

Do we have up to date information on the status of one million per month deliveries expected for April, May and June?

Have any deliveries relating to April been confirmed to be lower? Or is it the case, that today, as things stand, we still expect to receive supply of one million doses this April?

It's not that easy, it's done per quarter and divided into weeks. Based on previous deliveries. I think people may be dissapointed if we don't get 1mil doses in April, it may end up as 700k and 1.1mil in May and then 1.2mil in June.

That's why then EU was considering changes to the export licence, to compel companies not to load all the deliveries towards the end of the quarter.

Danzy

RavenBea17b wrote: »

How many larger vaccine centres are the HSE vaccinating at?
Does anyone have a current record. Surely village sports halls, pitch up commercial type tents/temporary buildings to get as many people thru at supermarkets. Free up Dr surgeries for our elderly, and for other medical appointments too.
If the vaccines ramp up, get the numbers up.

There will never be enough vaccines sent so quickly as to need that.

1.5mn flu vaccines in 6 weeks with no pressure.

badger54

Do we have up to date information on the status of one million per month deliveries expected for April, May and June?

Have any deliveries relating to April been confirmed to be lower? Or is it the case, that today, as things stand, we still expect to receive supply of one million doses this April?

Red Silurian

ek motor wrote: »

Apogee wrote: »

HSE Briefing:
-17,500 AZ administered since Sunday to Today
-Estimate of 200-230k in Cohort 4
-Will take until end April/early May to do Cohort 4
So about mid-may then to do cohort 4

So about mid-may then to do cohort 4

230k with a million doses in April, May and June would suggest Cohor 4 will be given their first dose during the first week of April and the second dosage 4-12 weeks later depending on the vaccine

[Deleted User]

https://twitter.com/med_indonews/status/1375094916741799939?s=19

Hopefully this is correct and it will be put in place asap. Gp to begin vaccinating those in Cohort 4 who are not linked to hospitals.

Apogee

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1375099009736577033

RavenBea17b

I notice that Norway health authority is saying blood clots 'unlikely' over two weeks after AZ. Will see if I can find the article again.

Economics101

A few quick phonecalls to private hospitals and organisations representing GPs, nursing homes etc would get an estimate that was a heck of a lot closer to the true number than the HSE seems to have got.

Also on the number of over 70s, I am sure that the CSO could provide quite good data within
a few hours: what are census data and mortality/life-expectancy tables for? And errors due to emigration or immigration would be low for the over 70s.

The more one looks into it the more of a total shambles is the HSE.

ek motor

Apogee wrote: »

HSE Briefing:
-17,500 AZ administered since Sunday to Today
-Estimate of 200-230k in Cohort 4
-Will take until end April/early May to do Cohort 4

So about mid-may then to do cohort 4

astrofool

josip wrote: »

What you've described above makes complete sense, but if we have an effective hiatus on vaccinating on Monday and Tuesday, that will be a big impediment to scaling up the vaccinations in May-June when supply has massively increased.

The hiatus only occurs because vaccine supply has ran out, so it is in fact a really good thing right now.

When supply increases and there isn't a hiatus (due to ample supply) it will mean our time from delivery to arm is over 7 days, people will complain about that as well

RavenBea17b

How many larger vaccine centres are the HSE vaccinating at?
Does anyone have a current record. Surely village sports halls, pitch up commercial type tents/temporary buildings to get as many people thru at supermarkets. Free up Dr surgeries for our elderly, and for other medical appointments too.
If the vaccines ramp up, get the numbers up.

wadacrack

More evidence of the Vaccine preventing infection

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1375095487594950670

josip

astrofool wrote: »

Arranging vaccines takes time per person, but seems to be about 1-2 days, most vaccinations are mid-week as this is the time by which deliveries into the country have occurred, so final numbers are in place, that amount going to each GP has been figured out, and then actually driven to that location to be administered, the GP then usually get through the doses over the few days.

What you've described above makes complete sense, but if we have an effective hiatus on vaccinating on Monday and Tuesday, that will be a big impediment to scaling up the vaccinations in May-June when supply has massively increased.

KrustyUCC

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Is that not a notice?

Yes but the other poster said "well it takes a few days to send out notices"

It doesn't

Apogee

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1375094514315104263

[Deleted User]

Economics101 wrote: »

From to-day's Indo on the low delivery of AX vaccines over the past week.

The most interesting part of this article on a slightly different aspect: the following from Dr Colm Henry of the HSE: "As of March 21 over 204,000 frontline healthcare workers had received their first dose vaccination. We have now significantly exceeded the original estimation of this group by more than 50,000 and are now in a position to begin to close out dose 1 vaccinations for this group"

So the HSE underestimated the number of front line health workers by 50,000? Truly awful incompetence, but quite in keeping with the HSE track record. The information they provide to the Covid Data Hub is just the total vaccinations to date (with a 2 or 3 day lag). I have had to down load the numbers to a spreadsheet each day to get some idea of a time-series of daily or weekly vaccinations.

The same HSE seems to be incapable of counting the numbers of over-70s. I know this directly as my GP has been undersupplied, most probably because the HSE did not have good data on the numbers in the older age-groups (for whom they presumably have issued medical cards).

The HSE would not have the employment records of healthcare workers employed in the private sector

Wolf359f

Economics101 wrote: »

From to-day's Indo on the low delivery of AX vaccines over the past week.

The most interesting part of this article on a slightly different aspect: the following from Dr Colm Henry of the HSE: "As of March 21 over 204,000 frontline healthcare workers had received their first dose vaccination. We have now significantly exceeded the original estimation of this group by more than 50,000 and are now in a position to begin to close out dose 1 vaccinations for this group"

So the HSE underestimated the number of front line health workers by 50,000? Truly awful incompetence, but quite in keeping with the HSE track record. The information they provide to the Covid Data Hub is just the total vaccinations to date (with a 2 or 3 day lag). I have had to down load the numbers to a spreadsheet each day to get some idea of a time-series of daily or weekly vaccinations.

The same HSE seems to be incapable of counting the numbers of over-70s. I know this directly as my GP has been undersupplied, most probably because the HSE did not have good data on the numbers in the older age-groups (for whom they presumably have issued medical cards).

The HSE wouldn't really know how many private doctor's, dentists, nurses there are in the country though.
All they would know would be those directly employed by the HSE. They did also tend to just go and vaccinated all HCW's rather then taking time identifying the key Frontline ones. I think that was a better choice.

astrofool

namloc1980 wrote: »

Detailed excuses you mean. If you're happy to give up to 3 weeks for them to catch up on the missed AZ doses for just 1 week then fair enough. Meanwhile the economy is tanking and we're in crisis mode. Not like we need a bit of urgency or anything.

We're not getting out of crisis mode until we get to 80% vaccine rollout (June/July timeframe), as was pointed out many multiple of times on this thread, the AZ pause does not change the timeline to herd immunity, or change the timeline to the economy reopening, the supply of vaccine is the constraint, as the supply comes in, it gets used. The UK is weeks ahead of us in vaccination % due to their large supply, and are still just as locked down as we are.

Stark

Economics101 wrote: »

The most interesting part of this article on a slightly different aspect: the following from Dr Colm Henry of the HSE: "As of March 21 over 204,000 frontline healthcare workers had received their first dose vaccination. We have now significantly exceeded the original estimation of this group by more than 50,000 and are now in a position to begin to close out dose 1 vaccinations for this group"

So the HSE underestimated the number of front line health workers by 50,000? Truly awful incompetence, but quite in keeping with the HSE track record. The information they provide to the Covid Data Hub is just the total vaccinations to date (with a 2 or 3 day lag). I have had to down load the numbers to a spreadsheet each day to get some idea of a time-series of daily or weekly vaccinations.

I think he means that they're ahead of expected schedule for frontline workers group.

Apogee

Next week:
-95k-105k total
-75k-80k Cohort 3
-15-20k Cohort 4
-5k Cohort 1

Large delivery still expected from AZ next week.

Apogee

HSE Briefing:
-17,500 AZ administered since Sunday to Today
-Estimate of 200-230k in Cohort 4
-Will take until end April/early May to do Cohort 4

Economics101

From to-day's Indo on the low delivery of AX vaccines over the past week.

The most interesting part of this article on a slightly different aspect: the following from Dr Colm Henry of the HSE: "As of March 21 over 204,000 frontline healthcare workers had received their first dose vaccination. We have now significantly exceeded the original estimation of this group by more than 50,000 and are now in a position to begin to close out dose 1 vaccinations for this group"

So the HSE underestimated the number of front line health workers by 50,000? Truly awful incompetence, but quite in keeping with the HSE track record. The information they provide to the Covid Data Hub is just the total vaccinations to date (with a 2 or 3 day lag). I have had to down load the numbers to a spreadsheet each day to get some idea of a time-series of daily or weekly vaccinations.

The same HSE seems to be incapable of counting the numbers of over-70s. I know this directly as my GP has been undersupplied, most probably because the HSE did not have good data on the numbers in the older age-groups (for whom they presumably have issued medical cards).

IRISHSPORTSGUY

Juncker coming out today against blocking exports. This is a critical moment in von der Leyen's premiership - if the supply chain grinds to a halt as a result she's done.

namloc1980

astrofool wrote: »

Because all the detailed reasons I listed in the previous posts?

They are working through a backup of stock, we'll continue to be ahead of most other EU countries, and we'll quickly get back to 95% of vaccines delivered being used. When the supply comes along, the MVC will also open and vaccinate on a schedule based on the supply they have (which if it's like today, will mean they'll be closed on Sunday due to lack of vaccines, you can then work yourself into a rage on a weekly basis).

Detailed excuses you mean. If you're happy to give up to 3 weeks for them to catch up on the missed AZ doses for just 1 week then fair enough. Meanwhile the economy is tanking and we're in crisis mode. Not like we need a bit of urgency or anything.

Nqp15hhu

17,124 vaccines in Northern Ireland yesterday. 48.4% of adults have received their first dose.