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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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brisan

combat14 wrote: »

Angela Merkel today warning about biggest european recession since WW2 and talk of all the hotels, bars, restaurants, cinemas, hairdressers etc. putting up their prices here doesnt bode well either when in many cases they are over priced already ......

She is not alone
Central Bank saying the biggest recession since the foundation of the state
Bank of England forecasting biggest recession in 300 years
Fed saying biggest recession since the 1920s
Then there is Brexit
No one knows how it will play out and a vaccine will be a game changer

Ush1

4 bed in the Dublin commuter region, won't be more specific than that. House looks in very good condition, recently renovated I would say.

19233974

brisan wrote: »

She is not alone
Central Bank saying the biggest recession since the foundation of the state
Bank of England forecasting biggest recession in 300 years
Fed saying biggest recession since the 1920s
Then there is Brexit
No one knows how it will play out and a vaccine will be a game changer

Interesting seeing the article calling for 1.8bn to be pumped into the restaurant sector. Particularly when theres not a chance of a good portion of these surviving, and then also throws up the question of who else do we prop up? hotels? airlines?

the economy is being artifically propped up at the moment but we cant keep it up forever and its only then we will see the true fall out. Hopefully a good stimulus package can help us negotiate this but ireland being ireland im not so sure

brisan

Top Dog wrote: »

I'm following that thread too, and to be fair - the market hasn't recovered yet because it has yet to drop significantly. Yeah, sales were paused for a few months, but we've yet to see any significant drop in asking prices.

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/dublin

brisan

IsErik wrote: »

This right here, i don't understand how the crash deniers cannot fathom how bad this recession is going to be. It will make GFC 08 look like a picnic, all sectors are impacted this time at a much more elevated level.

What brought it home to me was when Dan O Brien of the Irish independent (who is normally upbeat ) appeared on the Tonight show
He said this recession has the potential to make 2008 look like a blip

Shelga

Just back from another viewing of a 2 bed apartment, advertised at €275k. The first thing the estate agent said to me was "the owner is actually looking for at least €290k"- why waste my time then?

Advertise it at the price you want for it. Stop playing these stupid games.

The Wordress

I can already see signs of a deep recession looming in my local area. I would say that my locality would rely on tourism for about 50-60% of overcall income. Footfall has been dramatically reduced. There is no buzz here like a typical summer. I would go as far to say that the last few months has hit the most wealthy and healthy businesses hardest around here, like cafes/restaurants/hotels/gift shops that would rely on American and holidaymakers from the North.

I really feel for people in business around here. Jobs and incomes are hanging by a thread.

As I write this, I am wondering is now the best time to be looking about buying property around here.

19233974

Also the EU fiscal stimulus package is far from a sure thing, the dutch and austrians will fight it as im sure a large chunk of the money will be hoovered up by italy and spain who were on the brink even pre-covid!

brisan

LJ12345 wrote: »

Don’t forget the fundamentals are different to the GFC in 2008, banks haven’t been lending 110% mortgages and are covered for a 10-20% drop in prices, builders haven’t been building like they were before, they’re selling in phases before building the next phase, lessons were learnt. This is an unprecedented time but I don’t believe we’re anywhere near the same position we found ourselves in 2008.

Are they covered for a 20-30% rise in unemployment and people unable to pay their mortgages ???

brisan

TheSheriff wrote: »

You say that now as a buyer, but will instantly have the opposite view when you are a home owner.

Ronan Ryan and pamela Flood done all right out of the rules and they were homeowners ......kinda

Springy Turf

brisan wrote: »

Are they covered for a 20-30% rise in unemployment and people unable to pay their mortgages ???

If the house is not in negative equity, from the point of view of a banks balance sheet, does that matter?

brisan

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

I've read this thread here and there over the last few months as we had been previously sale agreed but it fell through when our buyers business was affected by Covid. Our previous sale agreed price was 8k over asking.

We recently put the house back up at the same price. And we just went sale agreed on friday at 21k over asking. With 7 bidders emailing in offers on the day we had set for final offers. And it's a cash buyer to boot.

We've been looking at houses at the same time although we not rushed as we've somewhere else to live. We've noticed properties that were previously sale agreed back up at the same price. But this time, the bids on them are higher than pre covid. And even the limited number of new 2nd hand homes to the market where we're looking all have offers over asking. Not a sniff of any reductions in the prices we were accustomed to looking at back in January and February.

Not sure when people are expecting reductions to happen. But our experiences so far have been increases and the opposite to some of the comments here about prices falling. Not sure what's going on. We'll probably wait till after summer and look to buy a house as cash buyers ourselves. Hoping some of the predictions of prices dropping are true. But no sign of it for us so far.

i am afraid the facts do not agree

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/dublin
What is happening now is people who had mortgage approval are buying now at any price before their approval runs out and their circumstances change in regard to them getting mortgage approval again

Springy Turf

brisan wrote: »

i am afraid the facts do not agree

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/dublin
What is happening now is people who had mortgage approval are buying now at any price before their approval runs out and their circumstances change in regard to them getting mortgage approval again

You can't know that.

TheSheriff

brisan wrote: »

i am afraid the facts do not agree

https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/dublin
What is happening now is people who had mortgage approval are buying now at any price before their approval runs out and their circumstances change in regard to them getting mortgage approval again

That price changes link to myhome you keep posting doesn't really prove much to be fair - this isn't a new link and it always populated with price changes.

We were looking since last September and that link also had hundreds of price decreases in it back then. In fact, it was mostly decreases back then too.

Not sure what you are trying to suggest by linking to it, its not new by any means and likely reflects properties that were never advertised at the correct price initially. (Also, for interest, some price increases there too).

What matters is asking price versus sale price relative to the average in the area..... not some link to myhome advertising prices changes on unsold properties in Ireland.

Padre_Pio

What's happening now is no different to what has happened over the past few months, only more so.

People are afraid they're going to lose their mortgages, their exemptions and maybe their jobs.
If you're renting, thinking about buying and about to lose your job, it's better to buy a house ASAP.

The bank will work with you to restructure and pay what you can off the mortgage. They will never put you out of your home. Too much bad press.
The landlord will initiate eviction ASAP. And what then? Move home, maybe move away from your partner, look for a job, eat into your savings and deposit, delay your life for another year or two?

It may just be conjecture, but we're seeing a huge upset on the news every day, yet people are acting with less consideration that usual? It doesn't make sense.

brisan

OwlsZat wrote: »

If we stop our construction industry and add that to the list of desimated industries you get construction, retail, food, tourism, commercial property and farming. That's a bleak future, one that doesn't bear thinking about really.

Well a lot of foreign nationals who would typically be renters are returning home
The sectors they normally work in restaurants ,pubs,hotels are going to struggle
Cleaning firms however will be crying out for staff ,albeit at minimum wage

[Deleted User]

I'd wait to see what the PPR details tbh ........... all the reports of x above or below asking are lovely but until the sales go though we won't really know what's going on.

19233974

Exactly, while i do feel sales now are pent up demand and people trying to push through while they still have approval, there is literally no way we know, its all conjecture at this point.

brisan

OwlsZat wrote: »

REITs where they have bought land and got planning will continue those projects to recoup costs. Will they look for planning on new sites and continue to build build-to-rent apartments? I doubt they will, more likely they will start selling apartments in the face of holiday and long term rental market weakness.

The central bank report linked a few pages back spelt out how we are more exposed than 90% of the EU countries to the impending commercial property collapse. David McW was sounding the alarm on this long ago when "smart money" was leaving the market and commercial rents were 3X that of Barcelona. We love boom-bust economics in Ireland.

On the bolded point
If a renter has taken a 3 month payment break on a 2k a month lease ,how will he /they pay back the 6k and over what term
Over a 12 month period that's a 25% rent increase
Will they just walk away and surrender their deposit
i know their references will be shot to pieces but if rents are falling and they can obtain somewhere by hook or by crook it may be financially viable for them to do so
What does the landlord do then

[Deleted User]

brisan wrote: »

........
Will they just walk away and surrender their deposit............
..

Many will I imagine. Some more will stay put without paying for as long as they can I suspect.

brisan wrote: »

........
What does the landlord do then

Report to PRTB is all they can do unless they want to pursue the matter with solicitors etc which will be a waste of money, ignoring the time.

Loads of tenants would be sharing so who knows what's on the actual lease also.

The number of folk who availed of "rent breaks" is not in the public domain afaik.

combat14

From a stock market point of view when you see the big boys like warren buffett sitting on 130+ Bn in cash and sitting tight not buying anything it says it all

Have a portion of pension funds in propery got warning letter a few months ago that there was now a 6 months freeze on withdrawals from property funds as there was such a huge exit .. this exit particularly in commercial retail started earlier in the year prior to covid 19

brisan

Springy Turf wrote: »

If the house is not in negative equity, from the point of view of a banks balance sheet, does that matter?

It may not be in negative equity now,but what about in 12 months time ??

Queasy Tadpole

Shelga wrote: »

Just back from another viewing of a 2 bed apartment, advertised at €275k. The first thing the estate agent said to me was "the owner is actually looking for at least €290k"- why waste my time then?

Advertise it at the price you want for it. Stop playing these stupid games.

Too right. I am a seller and have a price I will not sell below and that is was it will be set at. Anything above that is a plus.

guyfawkes5

Shelga wrote: »

Just back from another viewing of a 2 bed apartment, advertised at €275k. The first thing the estate agent said to me was "the owner is actually looking for at least €290k"- why waste my time then?

Advertise it at the price you want for it. Stop playing these stupid games.

This is something that screams out for legislation.

It's a practice based in deception that collectively wastes the time of a lot of people in the hope of benefit for one person (the seller). This is usually the perfect usecase for a law.

It happened to me too and the attitude of the EA was infuriating. She told people the stated price was purposefully false and you might have just wasted most of your evening so breezily, just like she was telling you the square footage or aspect or something.

Springy Turf

Queasy Tadpole wrote: »

Too right. I am a seller and have a price I will not sell below and that is was it will be set at. Anything above that is a plus.

OK, say you have a situation where you put a property up that you want at least 300k for. You get a relatively small amount of interest, and eventually a single bid comes in at 270k. At this point, when your house was tested on the market, it turned out that the max offer you could get is 270k. If you are committed to selling (i.e. you want to trade up), this is now the best you can do - however you have ruled out people who are at the 270k price level from the start.

If you list at 270k from the start, firstly you might get an earlier bid at 270k, and secondly you might get more interested parties to start a bidding competition. Obviously you don't want to go too low, but from what I have seen, an asking of 10% under the final sale value wouldn't be unusual.

lastusername

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

This is something that screams out for legislation.

It's a practice based in deception that collectively wastes the time of a lot of people in the hope of benefit for one person (the seller). This is usually the perfect usecase for a law.

It happened to me too and the attitude of the EA was infuriating. She told people the stated price was purposefully false and you might have just wasted most of your evening so breezily, just like she was telling you the square footage or aspect or something.

Wow. Just wow. I would tell any estate agent doing that I'll never do business with them, and will tell others to steer clear too.

wassie

Shelga wrote: »

Just back from another viewing of a 2 bed apartment, advertised at €275k. The first thing the estate agent said to me was "the owner is actually looking for at least €290k"- why waste my time then?

Advertise it at the price you want for it. Stop playing these stupid games.

Like it or not, this is the game.

That may be what the the owner is looking for....but if you are the only potential buyer and they need to sell, the €290k in 2 weeks time might suddenly overnight change to €275k.

The lesson I have learnt after buying and selling a number of houses over the years is never assume what the other party is thinking.

You have no idea on what the vendors motivation is or what they may be willing to accept as this can change in an instant.

guyfawkes5

Springy Turf wrote: »

OK, say you have a situation where you put a property up that you want at least 300k for. You get a relatively small amount of interest, and eventually a single bid comes in at 270k. At this point, when your house was tested on the market, it turned out that the max offer you could get is 270k. If you are committed to selling (i.e. you want to trade up), this is now the best you can do - however you have ruled out people who are at the 270k price level from the start.

If you list at 270k from the start, firstly you might get an earlier bid at 270k, and secondly you might get more interested parties to start a bidding competition. Obviously you don't want to go too low, but from what I have seen, an asking of 10% under the final sale value wouldn't be unusual.

There's potential upside for the seller, but it's definitely wasting the time of a lot of buyers for that upside you may or may not get.

It's also something slightly grimey even if it's seemingly culturally accepted by EAs. Clearly the asking price means a certain thing to most buyers, and the sellers are relying on this to get them to turn up while subverting it by not holding themselves to that meaning.

Claw Hammer

Shelga wrote: »

Just back from another viewing of a 2 bed apartment, advertised at €275k. The first thing the estate agent said to me was "the owner is actually looking for at least €290k"- why waste my time then?

Advertise it at the price you want for it. Stop playing these stupid games.

So what? The owner can look for what they like. Just because something is advertised at a price does not mean it is available at that price. it might sell for less or more. it is up to you to work out the value and the price you will pay. If you see something advertised at too low a price you can be sure that the idea is to get a bidding war going. it the price is too high it is your signal to wait in the long grass on a lowball offer.

neutral guy

Was watching property at 850K in County Louth last night.The same vases of flowers was on every photo of every room.They probably was carrying them from room to room to make photos more attractive.I was watching those photos with smile thinking Keep going lads,Keep going ! The price is not what you want price is what you will get.

Edit: Trough this recession I found the very good sign about when recession starting.The recession starting when number of property for sale are rising on posh areas.Those guys always getting news first.And there is plenty houses for sale at the moment,more than usual I would say.