Limerick City constituency

bacon&cabbage · 27-11-2010 3:56pm

liammur wrote: »

No, what I'm saying is this current government can't take any credit for jobs where a company that was already in the region prior to 1997 expands. Dell announced 50 jobs in 2008, surely we shouldn't be bowing to FF because of this? And we haven't seen any jobs since.
They brought Northern Trust into the region, but unfortunately these companies were few and far between over 14 years of unprecedented growth, whereas Galway got companies like SAP/IBM/Boston Scientific (thousands alone)/Cisco/ etc.

Galway/Cork are booming, and above is the reason why.

I agree not enough jobs have been created in the region, that was the very first thing I said in this thread.

You started with

liammur wrote: »

No IDA jobs for Limerick since FF got into power in 1997

and then came out with

liammur wrote: »

we can say under 14 years of FF governance we got 300 IDA jobs,

The only point I was making was that what you originally stated was completely incorrect and you have confirmed that yourself.

Amazotheamazing · 27-11-2010 4:25pm

bacon&cabbage wrote: »

I agree not enough jobs have been created in the region, that was the very first thing I said in this thread.

You started with

and then came out with

The only point I was making was that what you originally stated was completely incorrect and you have confirmed that yourself.

Limerick is a city of roughly 90,000 to 100,000, do you think the IDA have done enough to combat unemployment in Limerick? Lets be honest, 300 jobs for a city that size is a small number.

Imo, the IDA and FF have been a disaster for Limerick.

osarusan · 27-11-2010 4:33pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

Limerick is a city of roughly 90,000 to 100,000, do you think the IDA have done enough to combat unemployment in Limerick? Lets be honest, 300 jobs for a city that size is a small number.

Imo, the IDA and FF have been a disaster for Limerick.

in fairness, all he's saying is that the post claiming that no IDA jobs had been created was wrong. Nothing else. He's not claiming that the IDA has done enough.

Raiser · 27-11-2010 10:33pm

ninty9er wrote: »

Have you looked around. Have you ever taken not of what goes on inside Leinster House? Do you think there's just Dáil and Seanad chamber and a bar? You need to seriously wake up to how our political system works. Quite a lot of proposed legislation comes though committee stage with representatives from ALL parties on them. He has been on The Transport Committee and chaired the Justice Committee as well as the Child Protection Committee reviewing the legislation surrounding statutory rape after the CC Case.

Calling someone who was deemed capable enough of that vacuous sugests you could look elsewhere to cast your aspersions.

LOL.

Do you think that People on here are that stupid? Your arguments are insulting not to me but to the People you were too slack to think up a decent piece of spin for.

- I understand Irish politics Junior - I understand that a bollock licking Spaniel could have gotten into power on Willie the Pub Grappler/Brothel Speculators free Ticket.

I am horrified to hear that FF has been legislating - I thought it was all bribes and dodgy dealing - Do you think that there will be a separate IMF bill to cover the cost of reversing their half arsed utterly botched legislation?

liammur · 27-11-2010 11:42pm

bacon&cabbage wrote: »

I agree not enough jobs have been created in the region, that was the very first thing I said in this thread.

You started with

and then came out with

The only point I was making was that what you originally stated was completely incorrect and you have confirmed that yourself.

I know, but I didn't mean literally 'no' jobs, but for limerick city and county we've got practically no jobs. The county may literally have not got 1 job?You are correct in saying it isn't enough, all I want to do is highlight this issue to people who may not be aware of it. These are the jobs that all other sectors of the local economy are dependent upon.

Amazotheamazing · 18-01-2011 6:52pm

Can the Mod's add a poll to this thread, will be interesting to see the votes go.

Insect Overlord · 18-01-2011 7:01pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

Can the Mod's add a poll to this thread, will be interesting to see the votes go.

Give me a list of options and I'll sort out a poll for ye.

Amazotheamazing · 18-01-2011 7:24pm

Ok, going by parties.

Fianna Fail (O'Dea, Power)
Fine Gael (Noonan, O'Donnell)
Labour (O'Sullivan, Leddin)
Sinn Fein (Quinlivan)
Socialist Party (Prendiville)
Independant
Other

Or if there's space, just list all the candidates named so far.

(alphabetical)
Leddin (Lab)
Noonan (FG)
O'Dea (FF)
O'Donnell (FG)
O'Sullivan (Lab)
Power (FF)
Prendiville (SP)
Quinlivan (SF)

Other (name)

Looking at it, it'd probably be more instructive to have the individual rather than the party in the poll.

I don't know who's running for the green party, i thought it was going to be James Nix but heard he mightn't be going. (Pity imo, whatever about the green party, he'd be an excellent TD for Limerick)

Insect Overlord · 18-01-2011 7:28pm

Poll added, as per request: Leddin (Lab)
Noonan (FG)
O'Dea (FF)
O'Donnell (FG)
O'Sullivan (Lab)
Power (FF)
Prendiville (SP)
Quinlivan (SF)

Other (name)

liammur · 18-01-2011 10:05pm

Insect Overlord wrote: »

Poll added, as per request: Leddin (Lab)
Noonan (FG)
O'Dea (FF)
O'Donnell (FG)
O'Sullivan (Lab)
Power (FF)
Prendiville (SP)
Quinlivan (SF)

Other (name)

Good ideas folks. I like to post on the politics forum, but also local is good.
We don't have high calibre canditates, but I'll go for labour i think.

liammur · 20-01-2011 7:37pm

Another 650 jobs for cork over the last 2 days. This is what we must tell the FF canvassers. They've treated us here in limerick very very badly.

RonMexico · 20-01-2011 8:11pm

Who was stupid enough to pick O'Dea? *Awaits predictable response from Bacon&Cabbage*

Amazotheamazing · 20-01-2011 8:18pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limerick_East_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2002_general_election

Interesting to look at the actual figures from previous elections. Kieran O'Donnell's first preferences are closer to O'Sullivans than I remember. A lot will depend on whether O'Dea's transfers can drag Power across the line, if O'Dea's vote is down Power will be in serious trouble.

Still don't see anything other than O'Dea, Noonan, O'Sullivan and O'Donnell.

bacon&cabbage · 20-01-2011 8:34pm

RonMexico wrote: »

Who was stupid enough to pick O'Dea? *Awaits predictable response from Bacon&Cabbage*

I've never met the man nor did I ever vote for him in an election.

A significant amount of the of the threads here turn into general WOD bashing -thats what I find predictable
It usually spoils any rational or constructive conversation.

Amazotheamazing · 20-01-2011 8:39pm

bacon&cabbage wrote: »

I've never met the man nor did I ever vote for him in an election.

A significant amount of the of the threads here turn into general WOD bashing -thats what I find predictable
It usually spoils any rational or constructive conversation.

What if people are rationally and constructively bashing O'Dea?

People don't bash because it's suddenly cool to dislike him, they dislike him because Fianna Fail have been a disaster for Ireland and O'Dea has been a disaster for Limerick.

I have plenty of rational reasons to criticise the guy.

bacon&cabbage · 20-01-2011 8:58pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

What if people are rationally and constructively bashing O'Dea?

RonMexico wrote: »

Who was stupid enough to pick O'Dea? *Awaits predictable response from Bacon&Cabbage*

Really ? Whats constructive or rational about Rons latest post ?

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

People don't bash because it's suddenly cool to dislike him, they dislike him because Fianna Fail have been a disaster for Ireland and O'Dea has been a disaster for Limerick.
I have plenty of rational reasons to criticise the guy.

...and I too have criticised him when I feel it's warranted, but there's never any balance, never a word about Noonan, JOS, Power or KOD, what have they achieved ?

Remember nearly 40% of the constituency gave him first preference in 2007, up over 12% from 2002, that has to count for something.

Amazotheamazing · 20-01-2011 9:14pm

bacon&cabbage wrote: »

Remember nearly 40% of the constituency gave him first preference in 2007, up over 12% from 2002, that has to count for something.

You're right it does, it raises the standards O'Dea should be judged by. A lot of people back him and that makes his failure all the worse.

I don't know what you would criticise Noonan, JOS, or KOD for? They've been reasonably strong in their opposition to FF, they personally haven't been in power so they couldn't deliver any big projects to Limerick. I've never needed to go to them as my TD so i couldn't say if they've done much for individual constituents.

RonMexico · 20-01-2011 9:14pm

Stupid because the man has been a dismal failure not to mention having to resign from his office in disgrace.

And I find it odd that you claim to have no connection to the man given your posting history on boards.

liammur · 20-01-2011 9:55pm

RonMexico wrote: »

Stupid because the man has been a dismal failure not to mention having to resign from his office in disgrace.

Correct.

Noonan upgraded the hospital when he was minister and also got loads of companies like vistakon in.

Power i would be fairly sure will lose his seat, and quite rightly too, because like o dea, he has been a disaster for the region.

molard · 20-01-2011 10:53pm

interesting poll.will we have 2fg 1sf 1ff and no labour?

bacon&cabbage · 20-01-2011 10:55pm

liammur wrote: »

Correct.

Noonan upgraded the hospital when he was minister and also got loads of companies like vistakon in.

Power i would be fairly sure will lose his seat, and quite rightly too, because like o dea, he has been a disaster for the region.

Incorrect, the funding for the hospital was secured well before Noonan got to government, just because it was completed in his tenure doesn't mean he secured it.

and it looks like history is repeating itself...

New Critical Care Unit for Limerick Regional

New A&E dept for Limerick Regional

liammur · 20-01-2011 11:18pm

bacon&cabbage wrote: »

Incorrect, the funding for the hospital was secured well before Noonan got to government, just because it was completed in his tenure doesn't mean he secured it.

and it looks like history is repeating itself...

New Critical Care Unit for Limerick Regional

New A&E dept for Limerick Regional

Anyone that has been in the maternity hospital recently will know that Limerick has been forgotten.

Also, just watching prime time, and they are saying how well IDA have been doing in getting jobs,,,,,,,,do they know we exist here?

Browney7 · 21-01-2011 2:00am

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limerick_East_(Dáil_Éireann_constituency)#2002_general_election

Interesting to look at the actual figures from previous elections. Kieran O'Donnell's first preferences are closer to O'Sullivans than I remember. A lot will depend on whether O'Dea's transfers can drag Power across the line, if O'Dea's vote is down Power will be in serious trouble.

Still don't see anything other than O'Dea, Noonan, O'Sullivan and O'Donnell.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Mossy Quinlivan pipping O'Donnell to be honest. If Limerick city/East was still a five seater he would have a right good chance I'd say.

I despair for the people of Limerick west now Limerick County if they re-elect the 2 Fianna Failure morons. I can see at least one of them getting in unfortunately

Amazotheamazing · 21-01-2011 2:18am

Browney7 wrote: »

Wouldn't be surprised to see Mossy Quinlivan pipping O'Donnell to be honest. If Limerick city/East was still a five seater he would have a right good chance I'd say.

Don't see it. 18 months ago he got nearly 900 first preference votes in the North Ward. He'd need to find at least another 5000 votes to be anywhere near elected. Even 5,000 votes probably wouldn't be enough as SF traditionally don't get transfers. A better analyst than me could tell how each candidate will lose out due to new boundary. I've heard it suggested that O'Donnell will lose out more than the others.

In the last general election the first preference votes went as follows

O'Dea 19,082
Noonan 7,507
O'Sullivan 5,098
O'Donnell 5,094
Power 3,569
Quinlivan got 2,081

It looks like the only way Power will get elected is if O'Dea carries Power across the line. We've no idea of how much O'Dea's vote will decrease by or his his transfers will go to FF, his is a largely personal vote I would think. It's fairly certain that FG's, Labour's and SF's vote will increase therefore even if Quinlivan's vote doubles, it wouldn't counteract the increase in FG's and Labour's vote.

With that in mind, is it likely Quinlivan will have doubled or tripled his vote in the past four years? It's possible, but is it likely?

molard · 21-01-2011 11:42am

i can understand o dea's decrease but why are people giving sf 25% of the the votes.

bacon&cabbage · 21-01-2011 6:42pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

Don't see it. 18 months ago he got nearly 900 first preference votes in the North Ward. He'd need to find at least another 5000 votes to be anywhere near elected. Even 5,000 votes probably wouldn't be enough as SF traditionally don't get transfers. A better analyst than me could tell how each candidate will lose out due to new boundary. I've heard it suggested that O'Donnell will lose out more than the others.

In the last general election the first preference votes went as follows

O'Dea 19,082
Noonan 7,507
O'Sullivan 5,098
O'Donnell 5,094
Power 3,569
Quinlivan got 2,081

It looks like the only way Power will get elected is if O'Dea carries Power across the line. We've no idea of how much O'Dea's vote will decrease by or his his transfers will go to FF, his is a largely personal vote I would think. It's fairly certain that FG's, Labour's and SF's vote will increase therefore even if Quinlivan's vote doubles, it wouldn't counteract the increase in FG's and Labour's vote.

With that in mind, is it likely Quinlivan will have doubled or tripled his vote in the past four years? It's possible, but is it likely?

I agree, Power is most likely to lose out to either Quinlivan or Leddin. I reckon Quinlivan will get it.

EDIT: only 4 seats... (Thanks amazo) then I'd go with 2FG 1 FF 1 Lab

Amazotheamazing · 21-01-2011 6:55pm

bacon&cabbage wrote: »

I agree, Power is most likely to lose out to either Quinlivan or Leddin. I reckon Quinlivan will get it.

Only four seats this time.

Kev_ps3 · 21-01-2011 7:02pm

molard wrote: »

i can understand o dea's decrease but why are people giving sf 25% of the the votes.

:rolleyes:
Maby they are looking for patriot leadership that wont sell out to the IMF

Amazotheamazing · 21-01-2011 7:32pm

Kev_ps3 wrote: »

:rolleyes:
Maby they are looking for patriot leadership that wont sell out to the IMF

And take us out of the EU at the same time?

CiaranMT · 21-01-2011 8:08pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

And take us out of the EU at the same time?

About as likely as Norway joining the EU.

liammur · 21-01-2011 8:44pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

And take us out of the EU at the same time?

and into where......africa?

Noonan, o dea, o sullivan and o donnell v quinlivan for the last seat

in limerick west, 2 fg, 1 ff

retro2011 · 21-01-2011 10:54pm

wipe them out ff locally are buffoons.

retro2011 · 21-01-2011 10:55pm

joe leddin to win energertic intelligent focused candidate

molard · 21-01-2011 11:12pm

did u vote for him in the poll.

bacon&cabbage · 21-01-2011 11:36pm

liammur wrote: »

in limerick west, 2 fg, 1 ff

Limerick county I think its called now,
I agree 2 FG and 1 FF, it will be interesting to see which FF will lose his seat. I'd guess Collins will lose out.

All 4 FF and FG are based in the West of the constituency

Throw in James Heffernan (lab) who has the advantage of being from the east of the constituency and former IFA pres John Dillon is going as an independent

I'm not sure who SF have put forward.

In any case slightly off topic...

flutered · 22-01-2011 12:08am

bacon&cabbage wrote: »

Limerick county I think its called now,
I agree 2 FG and 1 FF, it will be interesting to see which FF will lose his seat. I'd guess Collins will lose out.

All 4 FF and FG are based in the West of the constituency

Throw in James Heffernan (lab) who has the advantage of being from the east of the constituency and former IFA pres John Dillon is going as an independent

I'm not sure who SF have put forward.

In any case slightly off topic...

o donnell fg is based in bruff, in the middle of the constituncy.

Amazotheamazing · 22-01-2011 3:14am

retro2011 wrote: »

joe leddin to win energertic intelligent focused candidate

Very capable guy alright but think he's too much ground to make up to be elected, imo. Will be interesting to see if there's much of a Left/Labour vote in Limerick, it's possible Leddin and O'Sullivan will split the vote (Leddin got over 1,000 first preferences in the South Ward in 2009) and if they do they could keep Quinlivan in the running.

angeleyes · 22-01-2011 3:49am

It could be an interesting contest but I do reckon that Noonan and O'Donnell should hold on.

O'Dea will have lost a lot of votes in the change over as his base is rural East Limerick i.e Kilteely, Cappamore, Doon etc - they have now been changed over to the Limerick county constituency. Also remember that last year O'Dea's sister ran for the local election and failed to get elected.

O'Dea seems not to be running for FF now - he has said he would get more votes as an independent. Sending him with Sweary Mary to meet with Michael Dell three years ago when it was well known Dell was going to close was just plain stupid and he did nothing for ex-Dell employees.

We will just have to wait and see.

Amazotheamazing · 22-01-2011 4:14am

liammur wrote: »

and into where......africa?

you can be a European country and be outside the EU. Strange you missed that.

bacon&cabbage · 22-01-2011 10:26am

flutered wrote: »

o donnell fg is based in bruff, in the middle of the constituncy.

O Donovan from NCW won at the FG convention

liammur · 22-01-2011 7:24pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

you can be a European country and be outside the EU. Strange you missed that.

You have NO understanding of economics. How do I know that?

If ireland were out of the €, it would sink immediately. That's what people need to realise. Why would we sink? Because FF has led to the country to circa €180bn of debt (not to mention private debt,,,how would people pay their mortgages back in €, when getting paid in punts? ),,,,how much would this translate to in irish punts?

Amazotheamazing · 22-01-2011 8:15pm

liammur wrote: »

You have NO understanding of economics. How do I know that?

If ireland were out of the €, it would sink immediately. That's what people need to realise. Why would we sink? Because FF has led to the country to circa €180bn of debt (not to mention private debt,,,how would people pay their mortgages back in €, when getting paid in punts? ),,,,how much would this translate to in irish punts?

I studied economics in college.

I agree with you btw, that's why I won't ever vote for SF's economic policy.

liammur · 22-01-2011 8:24pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

I studied economics in college.

I agree with you btw, that's why I won't ever vote for SF's economic policy.

Fair enough.

Tell me do you think SF's economic policies are much worse than FF's?

Amazotheamazing · 22-01-2011 8:42pm

liammur wrote: »

Fair enough.

Tell me do you think SF's economic policies are much worse than FF's?

In what way? Fianna Fail's policies have been reactionary. It's genuinely hard to know what was plain simple bad policy and how much was sheer panic, imo.

SF's policies could destroy Ireland, at any rate they'd lead to capital flight (imo), which would have long term impact on what kind of economy Ireland will have in the recovery.

liammur · 22-01-2011 8:52pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

In what way? Fianna Fail's policies have been reactionary. It's genuinely hard to know what was plain simple bad policy and how much was sheer panic, imo.

SF's policies could destroy Ireland, at any rate they'd lead to capital flight (imo), which would have long term impact on what kind of economy Ireland will have in the recovery.

I know where you are coming from re SF, but imo no party could have been worse. How on earth did they manage to get the country €180bn in debt and rising everyday.

Amazotheamazing · 22-01-2011 9:00pm

liammur wrote: »

I know where you are coming from re SF, but imo no party could have been worse. How on earth did they manage to get the country €180bn in debt and rising everyday.

Be that as it may, it's not really relevant. The only questions Ireland needs to worry about is where we're going, we all know where we are and why we're here.

We know FF destroyed Ireland, it's time to start asking who's going to rebuild it and how?

Tbh, no party has a magic bullet solution to Ireland's problems. It'll take years of compromise and probably a lot of luck to get back on track.

liammur · 22-01-2011 10:29pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

Be that as it may, it's not really relevant. The only questions Ireland needs to worry about is where we're going, we all know where we are and why we're here.

We know FF destroyed Ireland, it's time to start asking who's going to rebuild it and how?

Tbh, no party has a magic bullet solution to Ireland's problems. It'll take years of compromise and probably a lot of luck to get back on track.

Agreed.

Browney7 · 22-01-2011 11:18pm

Amazotheamazing wrote: »

Don't see it. 18 months ago he got nearly 900 first preference votes in the North Ward. He'd need to find at least another 5000 votes to be anywhere near elected. Even 5,000 votes probably wouldn't be enough as SF traditionally don't get transfers. A better analyst than me could tell how each candidate will lose out due to new boundary. I've heard it suggested that O'Donnell will lose out more than the others.

In the last general election the first preference votes went as follows

O'Dea 19,082
Noonan 7,507
O'Sullivan 5,098
O'Donnell 5,094
Power 3,569
Quinlivan got 2,081

It looks like the only way Power will get elected is if O'Dea carries Power across the line. We've no idea of how much O'Dea's vote will decrease by or his his transfers will go to FF, his is a largely personal vote I would think. It's fairly certain that FG's, Labour's and SF's vote will increase therefore even if Quinlivan's vote doubles, it wouldn't counteract the increase in FG's and Labour's vote.

With that in mind, is it likely Quinlivan will have doubled or tripled his vote in the past four years? It's possible, but is it likely?

Amazo I was looking at electionsireland.org there and had a good look around on it. I reckon Labour could be shooting themselves in the foot running 2 candidates. O'Dea should exceed the quota on the first round. I'd imagine that will be around the 11000 mark. Do you know the size of the electorate of the new Limerick city constituency?

I reckon Noonan will exceed the quota with the bulk of his transfers going to O'Donnell. Now the last time we had a good few independents and a green candidate who together polled around 2000ish votes and add in Tim O'Malley who polled 3354 votes and Noreen Ryan who polled 1391 votes. Now I'd imagine a lot of Quinlivan's base would be situated in the city and not out near Cappamore and Hospital and eastern county Limerick which is now gone.

I reckon a fair chunk of O'Dea's voters will desert him and these could well go to Quinlivan and Noonan. The Limerick city constituency will be interesting but the fact that Mossy isn't too transfer friendly could work against him.

If FG manage their vote properly they should get two in. I reckon it will go something like this and in the following order:

Noonan, O'Dea, O'Donnell and O'Sullivan/Quinlivan. If Limerick was still a five seater he would have been laughing I think

Amazotheamazing · 23-01-2011 12:05am

Browney7 wrote: »

Amazo I was looking at electionsireland.org there and had a good look around on it. I reckon Labour could be shooting themselves in the foot running 2 candidates. O'Dea should exceed the quota on the first round. I'd imagine that will be around the 11000 mark. Do you know the size of the electorate of the new Limerick city constituency?

I reckon Noonan will exceed the quota with the bulk of his transfers going to O'Donnell. Now the last time we had a good few independents and a green candidate who together polled around 2000ish votes and add in Tim O'Malley who polled 3354 votes and Noreen Ryan who polled 1391 votes. Now I'd imagine a lot of Quinlivan's base would be situated in the city and not out near Cappamore and Hospital and eastern county Limerick which is now gone.

I reckon a fair chunk of O'Dea's voters will desert him and these could well go to Quinlivan and Noonan. The Limerick city constituency will be interesting but the fact that Mossy isn't too transfer friendly could work against him.

If FG manage their vote properly they should get two in. I reckon it will go something like this and in the following order:

Noonan, O'Dea, O'Donnell and O'Sullivan/Quinlivan. If Limerick was still a five seater he would have been laughing I think

Depends, Leddin got a higher first preference in the 2009 local elections than Quinlivan and there should be a swing to Labour as much as any swing to SF.

We're dealing in predicting the future so I don't want to go too far into pure speculation. Until we know what's happened O'Dea's vote we won't know who'll be elected, there's just no way of knowing, imo. I personally can't see another 5,000 or so people voting for Quinlivan (that would be a massive shift in voters) but it could happen. Traditionally SF don't get transfers so Quinlivan needs a massive first preference. You can be fairly sure that whichever Labour candidate is eliminated will transfer in large numbers to the other (most likely Leddin eliminated early and this will push O'Sullivan up).

gaf1983 · 23-01-2011 2:38pm

Speaking of SF candidates (and while I know this isn't related to the Limerick constituency) it'll be interesting to see if Jean McConville's daughter does run against Gerry Adams in Louth:

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/mcconville-daughter-considers-run-against-adams-for-dail-seat-2507458.html

Limerick City constituency

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