Tour de France 2015 Stage 4 Seriang - Cambrai (cobbles) *contains unmasked spoilers*

After a very messy mini-Ardennes classic, we are now faced with the Tour's mini-Paris Roubaix. Dry weather is forecasted, unlike last year, however I would fully expect plenty of changes in the GC after all is said and done. Ignoring the high risk of falls and crashes, there are enough pavee sections here for a superior and more robust team to create an edge over their rivals. It is also likely that the riders will be faced with a stiff headwind all day, so a big engine is surely needed.

For the stage win, Paris Roubaix winner John Degenkolb enters as favourite, and he will no doubt be giving it his all in order to propel himself up the green jersey standings. However, the stage doesn't favour a cobbled rider nearly as much as Paris-Roubaix, with the 12km run in to Cambrai being quite simple. Sprinters like Kristoff, Paolini and Greipel will be aiming to simply hang-on. Strong men like Van Marcke, Stybar and Boom (if he goes for it) will have to make their impact earlier.

In the GC, I believe Nibali will be quite optimistic going into tomorrow. His highly successful race on the cobbles in last year's Tour plus his immensely strong team will give him plenty of reason to be so. Boom and Fuglsang, along with time trialists Westra and Grivko offer him a very capable step up to already being the robust rider of the GC "big four". That is not to say Froome's lieutenants are anything to be sniffed at, and I expect lessons have been learned from the nightmare of last year.

I expect Quintana will have serious issues tomorrow. His team is by far the least capable on cobbles, plus his billed weight of 50kg will not stand him in good stand when the road gets nasty. Movistar also fared quite poorly today to keep Valverde and Quintana in a safe and protected environment, and I expect tomorrow will reveal this even moreso. Quintana is currently sitting 1'56 down on Froome, and really cannot afford to give away any more time for free.

Oddschecker Degenkolb 7/2, Kristoff 7/1, Sagan 7/1, Vanmarcke 10/1, Stybar 10/1, Greipel 12/1, Boom 33/1