Tour de France 2015 Stage 4 Seriang - Cambrai (cobbles) *contains unmasked spoilers*

Darkglasses

After a very messy mini-Ardennes classic, we are now faced with the Tour's mini-Paris Roubaix. Dry weather is forecasted, unlike last year, however I would fully expect plenty of changes in the GC after all is said and done. Ignoring the high risk of falls and crashes, there are enough pavee sections here for a superior and more robust team to create an edge over their rivals. It is also likely that the riders will be faced with a stiff headwind all day, so a big engine is surely needed.

For the stage win, Paris Roubaix winner John Degenkolb enters as favourite, and he will no doubt be giving it his all in order to propel himself up the green jersey standings. However, the stage doesn't favour a cobbled rider nearly as much as Paris-Roubaix, with the 12km run in to Cambrai being quite simple. Sprinters like Kristoff, Paolini and Greipel will be aiming to simply hang-on. Strong men like Van Marcke, Stybar and Boom (if he goes for it) will have to make their impact earlier.

In the GC, I believe Nibali will be quite optimistic going into tomorrow. His highly successful race on the cobbles in last year's Tour plus his immensely strong team will give him plenty of reason to be so. Boom and Fuglsang, along with time trialists Westra and Grivko offer him a very capable step up to already being the robust rider of the GC "big four". That is not to say Froome's lieutenants are anything to be sniffed at, and I expect lessons have been learned from the nightmare of last year.

I expect Quintana will have serious issues tomorrow. His team is by far the least capable on cobbles, plus his billed weight of 50kg will not stand him in good stand when the road gets nasty. Movistar also fared quite poorly today to keep Valverde and Quintana in a safe and protected environment, and I expect tomorrow will reveal this even moreso. Quintana is currently sitting 1'56 down on Froome, and really cannot afford to give away any more time for free.

Oddschecker Degenkolb 7/2, Kristoff 7/1, Sagan 7/1, Vanmarcke 10/1, Stybar 10/1, Greipel 12/1, Boom 33/1

neris

Dan Martin








well someone has to say it

Brian?

Andre Greipel

I'm going with Van Avermaet for the stage and Tony Martin to be in yellow after today at 4/1

irishrover99

Andre Greipel

i've seen showers forecast in the afternoon from accuweather all over northern france.
kristoff for the win and van Avermaet to be in yellow at the end of the day

happytramp

Peter Sagan

Too much expectation on Nibali this stage. He's had pretty poor luck so far and it could go either way today. Push too hard and he risks hitting the deck.

spock.

Greg van Avermaet

Won't be able to watch today's stage.
Going to try to avoid all internet until the highlights tonight.

ZiabR

Peter Sagan

This should be a classic stage. If it does rain on those cobbles I would expect crashes.

MPFG

Zdenek Stybar

No Lars Boom in poll ?

manwithaplan

Sep Vanmarcke

Sagan if he's allowed go for it

Inquitus

Andre Greipel

manwithaplan wrote: »

Sagan if he's allowed go for it

He'll be all about protecting Nibali, but its not impossible he's in a very reduced bunch sprint.

Darkglasses

Sep Vanmarcke

Inquitus wrote: »

He'll be all about protecting Nibali, but its not impossible he's in a very reduced bunch sprint.

Treason among the tinkoff saxo team?

lennymc

Griepel was pretty impressive on the cobbles during PR after working hard for his team. I'm gonna put him second to JHB's truffle

Inquitus

Andre Greipel

Darkglasses wrote: »

Treason among the tinkoff saxo team?

lol I haven't had my coffee yet, if he's in a reduced bunch with Contador at the end hes defo a likely winner

irishrover99

Andre Greipel

it would actually be nice to see roche for a change today. haven't caught a glimpse of him yet and he's meant to be road captain for sky.

MPFG

Zdenek Stybar

irishrover99 wrote: »

it would actually be nice to see roche for a change today. haven't caught a glimpse of him yet and he's meant to be road captain for sky.

He is working like yesterday on flat early part of stages

Also sparing himself

Will probably come more to the fore as race proceeds as some of the other SKY rider get tired especially those who have ridden hard this week and maybe have not so much stamina over 3 weeks

eagle eye

Peter Sagan

I like VanMarcke's chances but Florain Senechal turns 22 on Friday and hails from Cambrai. He finished 17th in the Paris Roubaix this year and is only getting stronger. I'd expect a big ride from him today.

funnights74

Griepel looking strong so he'll be up there but anything could happen on the cobbles.I suspect Contador and Quintana could be in bother. The brown stuff will really hit the fan today.

D3PO

irishrover99 wrote: »

it would actually be nice to see roche for a change today. haven't caught a glimpse of him yet and he's meant to be road captain for sky.

well hes kept Froome upright and on the right side of echelon on stage 2 so id say hes doing a pretty good job as road captain so far even if hes not been seen much.

Taxuser1

Andre Greipel

GVA today. He's going so well, scorched up the Mur yesterday in some illustrious climbing company. Cannot see Kristoff being involved, the heat seemed to affect him and his form seem a little short - how did he get blown out of the front echelon on Sunday ?

Cannot see any chance of Degs being brought to the finish, or Sagan for that matter. Vanmarcke and Stybar look likeliest to mix it up on the cobbles but Vamarcke is tactically a dunce and Stybar is slightly undercooked. GVA does his best work when others relax and always a man to sniff his chance. Best classics rider outside Degs and Kristoff this year. Deserves yellow

Taxuser1

Andre Greipel

eagle eye wrote: »

I like VanMarcke's chances but Florain Senechal turns 22 on Friday and hails from Cambrai. He finished 17th in the Paris Roubaix this year and is only getting stronger. I'd expect a big ride from him today.

crashed yesterday though which is the only worry for him

Morrisseeee

Alexander Kristoff

Degenkolbalpecin ftw

Talib Fiasco

Alexander Kristoff

Degenkolb for the win. A big GC contender to abandon.

daramike

Sep Vanmarcke

I think the cobbles are being over-estimated. They are not as hard as last year, we won't have anywhere near the bad weather and they are further from the finish. I expect a reduced sprint of 50 riders myself. I think Degenkolb, Kristoff, Sagan and Greipel are the big stand out favourites. T Martin is interesting at a big price 66/1. He finished top 20 last year in the cobbles and has 13K after the last section to go for the win and yellow jersey. Trentin is my other outside pick at 66/1. Finished 9th in last years stage would have been higher only for a Kwiatkowski puncture. He is very strong in these longer stages and won a reduced sprint stage last year in the Tour. Of the favourites Sagan at 7/1 for the win. He finished 4th in the similar stage last year. He nearly caught Griepel on the line in stage 2 so is very strong.

Never saw betting thread sorry.

irishrover99

Andre Greipel

D3PO wrote: »

well hes kept Froome upright and on the right side of echelon on stage 2 so id say hes doing a pretty good job as road captain so far even if hes not been seen much.

really? only seen thomas and stannard with him crossing the line

D3PO

irishrover99 wrote: »

really? only seen thomas and stannard with him crossing the line

he doesn't need to sheppard him to the line. Hes been conserving energy, like yesterday got him into a good position towards the end, then drifted back to conserver energy, makes a lot more sense to have the classics guys do the legwork this week so all in all that's a good plan.

Pudsy33

h

irishrover99 wrote: »

really? only seen thomas and stannard with him crossing the line

He said in his diary that the plan was to have those 2 with Froome

Talib Fiasco

Alexander Kristoff

Froome looks dangerously skinny here...he must have like 3% body fat, if even

Brian?

Andre Greipel

D3PO wrote: »

he doesn't need to sheppard him to the line. Hes been conserving energy, like yesterday got him into a good position towards the end, then drifted back to conserver energy, makes a lot more sense to have the classics guys do the legwork this week so all in all that's a good plan.

Froome hasn't missed a split or been caught up behind a crash. That means Roche's work is done.

Brian?

Andre Greipel

Talib Fiasco wrote: »

Froome looks dangerously skinny here...he must have like 3% body fat, if even

No way is he 3% bodyfat. That's about what a body builder steps on stage at. I'd guess it's about 7 or 8%, any less and he'd be in constant danger of bonking.

Brian?

Andre Greipel

Brian? wrote: »

Froome hasn't missed a split or been caught up behind a crash. That means Roche's work is done.

In fact it was Roche who led the charge to close down a split Saxo-Tinkoff caused.

Talib Fiasco

Alexander Kristoff

Brian? wrote: »

No way is he 3% bodyfat. That's about what a body builder steps on stage at. I'd guess it's about 7 or 8%, any less and he'd be in constant danger of bonking.

He's definitely not 8%. Nibali remarked a few years back he was at 7% at the Dauphine and he couldn't follow Contador and Froome as their BF% was lower and his fat level couldn't follow that. I also read somewhere saying he attributes that weight loss as to being vital for his Tour win. I'd say Contador and Nibali are at 5/6% and Froome is below that. I read on another forum that some guy watched all the cyclists at the start line in person the other day and they all looked skinny, but Froome looked like a zombie.

MPFG

Zdenek Stybar

I feel a good raod captain is like a good funeral director. You shouldn't really notice them and if you do then it means things has gone wrong

lennymc

sky on their funny bikes today?

CramCycle

I wonder did the guy with the Canon manage to hit any of them?

Brian?

Andre Greipel

lennymc wrote: »

sky on their funny bikes today?

Yup. Eurosport are obsessed by them, JA Flèche just did a minute long report on them.

godtabh

Talib Fiasco wrote: »

He's definitely not 8%. Nibali remarked a few years back he was at 7% at the Dauphine and he couldn't follow Contador and Froome as their BF% was lower and his fat level couldn't follow that. I also read somewhere saying he attributes that weight loss as to being vital for his Tour win. I'd say Contador and Nibali are at 5/6% and Froome is below that. I read on another forum that some guy watched all the cyclists at the start line in person the other day and they all looked skinny, but Froome looked like a zombie.

There pctures I've seen of Froome lately suggested that he is too thin for the stress that will be put on his body over the next 3 weeks but I assume some one knows what they are doing with Froome at Team Sky

Brian?

Andre Greipel

I'm so excited about today, I used Alpecin shampoo this morning to get in the right mindset.

isitraining

Peter Sagan

lennymc wrote: »

sky on their funny bikes today?

Yep. They've just been bouncing one up and down on Eurosport to prove it does what it's supposed to.

Peterx

Bennett on the front there a few minutes ago going round a corner. He looked lost. Roche on the front now looking much more like it. I only need to see Dan and my lunchtime bingo is complete!

ThisRegard

The guys going on about how the stage could be absolute mayhem if the conditions turn bad are really unintentionally selling it.

Ouch, broken neck from yesterday for Bonnet.

MPFG

Zdenek Stybar

Race splitting

Jude13

45 mins till I am home watching it.

Pudsy33

its an uphill sprint today, can Bennett get over the cobbles?

MPFG

Zdenek Stybar

Stannard off the back

D3PO

seems theres crosswinds at play here too. this is going to be one interesting stage from here on I reckon.

D3PO

gallopan, standard and kelderman all struggling and 7 sections of pave to come I wish I wasn't tracking on text comms

MPFG

Zdenek Stybar

How many sections of cobbles are there today ??

Al I heer are cobbles cobbles cobbles cobbles cobbles cobbles cobbles cobbles cobbles

D3PO

7 sectors the one they are on now, then the remaining 6 sectors are in the last 20 km

MPFG

Zdenek Stybar

D3PO wrote: »

7 sectors the one they are on now, then the remaining 6 sectors are in the last 20 km

Gosh considering how excited they got for that one stuff is gonna happen

D3PO

MPFG wrote: »

Gosh considering how excited they got for that one stuff is gonna happen

yep lol. I mean a 1.7km cobble section and then no more for nearly 100km what exactly were they expecting to happen on that sector ?

irishrover99

Andre Greipel

Brian? wrote: »

In fact it was Roche who led the charge to close down a split Saxo-Tinkoff caused.

i said i'd like to see roche today, didn't say he wasn't pulling his weight.
your like a dog with a bone. is it because i suggested some here were anti english(regarding wiggins)and you took it on yourself to think i was talking about you.