Severe Frost countrywide + Occasional Snow Showers in the East from Thursday 9th Feb

martinsvi · 07-02-2017 12:55pm

I'm beginning to change my mind, I was very skeptical mainly due to models showing air mass originating from continent being dry and stable, but the latest model outputs suggest it will have ample opportunity to pick up moisture along North Sea as well as Irish Sea. Both these seas are unseasonably warm, giving surface temperatures around +10C, if you combine it with cold uppers (-8 to -14 depending on a model), you get yourself a massive lapse rate and instability, which would potentially set the stage for lake effect snow. It could even bring thunder with it. Breezy winds might make it more widespread too.

The only weight that's keeping me grounded is that it looks like a very very short lived event, which means that it might not happen at all if one variable is taken away. We are looking at couple of hours at best and probably on the night from Saturday to Sunday. After that, I would say, it will revert back to South-Easterly bringing us cold but dry air

Easterly Beasterly · 07-02-2017 12:55pm

D9Male wrote: »

I am a very enthusiastic weather watcher, and love snow as much as the next man. However, threads like these really confuse people as to what to expect when there is a chance of unusual weather conditions. To my mind, they should be created when there is a genuine likelihood of something unusual happening.

I don't think we are there yet. What I see is a cold weekend, with bits and bobs of precipitation. This forecast will change. Maybe the easterly will become more potent. Maybe it will become more watered down. But there have been so many threads like this on this forum down the years that have been started too early, and have effects that are similar to the hyperbolic newspaper articles about deep freezes and heat waves

I have been following the models intently for the last few days, as I have something weather dependent that I need to do in Dublin on Saturday. I have never seen a model run sufficient to generate a thread like this.

The thread title is exactly what is being forecast though, why should a thread only be opened when there is extreme weather happening? This is a weather forum. The majority of people here are weather enthusiasts. I have just watched the RTE Weather and it showed snow and Easterly Winds for Friday. Nobody is predicting a blizzard!

Doctor Shivering · 07-02-2017 12:59pm

D9Male wrote: »

I don't think we are there yet.

I have been following the models intently for the last few days, as I have something weather dependent that I need to do in Dublin on Saturday. I have never seen a model run sufficient to generate a thread like this.

We're not there yet for anything momentous but there is scope for snow in the east and especially if Ian's map verifies

Meanwhile the proclaimer's 500 miles is on RTÉ gold I suggest everyone turns the wireless up..

lawred2 · 07-02-2017 1:02pm

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

We're not there yet for anything momentous but there is scope for snow in the east and especially if Ian's map verifies

Meanwhile the proclaimer's 500 miles is on RTÉ gold I suggest everyone turns the wireless up..

heard enough of that in Edinburgh on Saturday

D9Male · 07-02-2017 1:06pm

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

The thread title is exactly what is being forecast though, why should a thread only be opened when there is extreme weather happening? This is a weather forum. The majority of people here are weather enthusiasts. I have just watched the RTE Weather and it showed snow and Easterly Winds for Friday. Nobody is predicting a blizzard!

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

Doctor Shivering · 07-02-2017 1:13pm

D9Male wrote: »

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

Are you new to boards

D9Male · 07-02-2017 1:14pm

No, but you seem to be??????

MidMan25 · 07-02-2017 1:22pm

D9Male wrote: »

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

Leave the thread so! The title is not misleading, I don't understand what anyone is doing wrong here.

squarecircles · 07-02-2017 1:30pm

bickering and general grumpiness on the threads this morning,don't have to check the charts so.

Graces7 · 07-02-2017 1:30pm

Lovely sunny springlike day here now. Even took a cup of coffee outside and sat in a sheltered place enjoying surprisingly warm sun.

Much of the snow has dispersed but still some slight cover.

nacho libre · 07-02-2017 1:31pm

D9Male wrote: »

Fair point that the forecast is not outrageous, but I don't think cold weather in February is anything worth creating a thread for. It is just winter weather.

If that idea was followed through on, there would be little activity on this forum, because our weather is very rarely extreme/ notably unusual. Darkman's thread is fine, he is not engaging in hyperbole, he states in the thread title there maybe occasional snow showers, which there might be.

Unfortunately, it does not look to be a potent easterly, but hopefully there will be a few surprises and a reload of cold after a milder interlude

Doctor Shivering · 07-02-2017 1:35pm

nacho libre wrote: »

If that idea was followed through on, there would be little activity on this forum, because our weather is very rarely extreme/ notably unusual. Darkman's thread is fine, he is not engaging in hyperbole, he states in the thread title there maybe occasional snow showers, which there might be.

Unfortunately, it does not look to be a potent easterly, but hopefully there will be a few surprises and a reload of cold after a milder interlude

+1
And my joke obviously missed further up thread was you must be new to boards(weather forum) if you're not used to threads like this for snow

There's No bickering at all actually

I'll be back at 7 after the evenings output:)

fraxinus1 · 07-02-2017 1:55pm

Just spoke to a guy who works in Donegal County Council. They keep in very close contact with Met E as they need to know about gritting roads. He said that they have been told to expect severe frosts Friday and Saturday night then not so severe from then onwards as this cold weather is expected to fizzle out by Tuesday next week. Now I'm only passing on what I was told so no accusations of trolling etc.

Gonzo · 07-02-2017 2:38pm

just after seeing the RTE forecast, they going for a cool weekend with heavy frosts at night and isolated light showers between Dublin and Wexford. daytime temps around 4C which would produce sleet at best at lower levels.

Easterly Beasterly · 07-02-2017 2:54pm

Gonzo wrote: »

just after seeing the RTE forecast, they going for a cool weekend with heavy frosts at night and isolated light showers between Dublin and Wexford. daytime temps around 4C which would produce sleet at best at lower levels.

Nope.. they said very cold weekend. Taking snow out of the equation saying it will be a cool weekend is misleading. There will be severe frost and ice where there are any showers.

That's not just cool, that's cold.

nagdefy · 07-02-2017 4:47pm

The weekend looks nailed on cold with severe frost and the odd wintry flurry.

After the mild interlude we may get a reload of cold from around 16th February on. We're at the borderline stage where we're getting a little into borrowed time. Granted the 1947 heaviest snowfalls were 24-26 February and 5th March but in my lifetime after the 3rd week of February it's quite difficult to get snow to lie at lower levels. Stronger sun, longer day. Where i am on the hills snow has stayed. Yet even with us i remember during very cold weather late February/early March 2001 snow used melt off the roads in the daytime but stay in the fields.

So it's last chance saloon alright but who knows, for snow lovers we might just be on the right side of that time borderline and maybe the cold reload will be potent.

Pangea · 07-02-2017 4:54pm

nagdefy wrote: »

in my lifetime after the 3rd week of February it's quite difficult to get snow to lie at lower levels. .

lucky you, in my lifetime its difficult to get snow to lie at any time :mad: :pac:

07-02-2017 4:54pm

Drumpot wrote: »

So when you say east I presume it's everywhere but Bettystown on the Meath coast?!!!! Not sure what's wrong wth this small area but we never get any decent snow...

I don't mind that ...... we get more than our fair share of sun and blue skies in the Summer .... makes up for lack of snow

squarecircles · 07-02-2017 6:10pm

latest gfs shows very limited,or little or any frost countrywide on saturday and sunday night, back to a balmy 10 and 11 degrees on the west/southwest coast by monday,anyone for some north african sourced air,uhhhh,toasty,mmmm

and back to hopeful wishing of colder weather therafter,chasing a mirage after that id imagine...

christ,its depressing stuff,
wheres the valium.

Rebelbrowser · 07-02-2017 6:14pm

squarecircles wrote: »

latest gfs shows very limited,or little or any frost countrywide on saturday and sunday night, back to a balmy 10 and 11 degrees on the west/southwest coast by monday,

and back to hopeful wishing of colder weather therafter,chasing a mirage after that id imagine...

christ,its depressing stuff,
wheres the valium.

Yeah, this gfs chart below for midnight on Saturday into Sunday (peek cold I'd have thought) shows rain which is very disappointing. Not giving up the ghost yet though.

Iancar29 · 07-02-2017 7:04pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Yeah, this gfs chart below for midnight on Saturday into Sunday (peek cold I'd have thought) shows rain which is very disappointing. Not giving up the ghost yet though.

Peak cold is Friday night into Saturday. That chart is promising for high ground above 350m though, but yeah the uppers didn't look THAT cold to begin with.

fraxinus1 · 07-02-2017 7:09pm

I refused to get excited. I have resigned myself to the fact this winter will go down as one of the blandest ever.

Doctor Shivering · 07-02-2017 7:45pm

Actually Donegal was never in the frame for precipitation in this brief easterly so I'm puzzled as to why our Donegal member is dissing it

I've looked back at the ECM model from last week for today (168 then) and it bears no resemblance to today's weather
So not a shining light

That said tonight's output still has us in a mild southeast flow by Monday
Rain showers by then if any precipitation falls

Saturday afternoon to Sunday night still looking like peak chance for wintry precipitation in the East
That's anywhere from Waterford to Louth with the possibility of a shallow low in the Irish Sea enhancing precipitation but emphasising it more Dublin down to about North Wexford

Any Clear Skies further west will be brass monkeys

So we're on target in the east mainly for a 48hr window of interest where I doubt most of any precipitation will be rain

Onwards ,there's literally oceans of WAA heading up to Iceland as our Scandi high sinks so our next attack may indeed be driven by an Iceland high pulling down proper Artic air from the far northeast
But realistically that's into late February which may be the precursor to a delayed spring this year

nacho libre · 07-02-2017 7:52pm

Well those of you living near Wicklow, who are prepared to go to the snow, will have a good time on the mountains this weekend. I know if i lived in Dublin, i would go there a lot during winter. Of course the majority here want a beast from the east which brings heavy snow to all levels, but for whatever reason, they seem to be even harder to come by these days.

snowstorm445 · 07-02-2017 7:53pm

Cross model agreement now for a brief cold spell (virtually dry) followed promptly like a kick in the teeth by an unseasonably mild plume up from the Mediterranean. There have been winters where cold model synoptics are few and far between but they've been ten a penny this year, practically every few weeks we seemed to have been within sight of a cold outbreak that was watered down long before it ever got going. Plenty of good background signals, high pressure lurking about and cold pooling but nothing ever materialising for this part of the world. It seems we just aren't capable of getting a decent cold snowy spell this winter.

It's getting wearisome at this stage. There are some parts of the country that have received barely a cm or so of lying snow since the end of 2010. More than 6 years ago. Incredible by the standards of your typical Irish winter, even in the 2000s that would have been unheard of. Either it's extraordinarily bad luck or our climate is slowly changing and becoming milder.

It may seem downbeat but I can entirely understand anyone's pessimism and frustration.

Spanish Eyes · 07-02-2017 7:58pm

Global warming is the cause of much disappointment re snowfalls here. But Trump doesn't believe in it. So it's false news. LOL

Let's just wait and see what happens.

pad199207 · 07-02-2017 8:03pm

snowstorm445 wrote: »

Cross model agreement now for a brief cold spell (virtually dry) followed promptly like a kick in the teeth by an unseasonably mild plume up from the Mediterranean. There have been winters where cold model synoptics are few and far between but they've been ten a penny this year, practically every few weeks we seemed to have been within sight of a cold outbreak that was watered down long before it ever got going. Plenty of good background signals, high pressure lurking about and cold pooling but nothing ever materialising for this part of the world. It seems we just aren't capable of getting a decent cold snowy spell this winter.

It's getting wearisome at this stage. There are some parts of the country that have received barely a cm or so of lying snow since the end of 2010. More than 6 years ago. Incredible by the standards of your typical Irish winter, even in the 2000s that would have been unheard of. Either it's extraordinarily bad luck or our climate is slowly changing and becoming milder.

It may seem downbeat but I can entirely understand anyone's pessimism and frustration.

Yes and that's the thing. That's the one negative about what we got in 2010. It has led a lot of us to believe that we can expect it to happen again soon. And that our expectations are at a new higher level now because of it.
Reality is we have a mild maritime climate here and that any snow seems a rarity nowadays.

Anyways let's not derail the thread lads. There is a cold snap coming this weekend. And maybe just maybe some of the lucky few will see some of the white gold.

DOCARCH · 07-02-2017 8:04pm

Mod Note: Let's keep it clean! No moaning, or, 'I told you so' posts. No backseat modding either....thanks.

snowstorm445 · 07-02-2017 8:08pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Yes and that's the thing. That's the one negative about what we got in 2010. It has led a lot of us to believe that we can expect it to happen again soon. And that our expectations are at a new higher level now because of it.
Reality is we have a mild maritime climate here and that any snow seems a rarity nowadays.

Anyways let's not derail the thread lads. There is a cold snap coming this weekend. And maybe just maybe some of the lucky few will see some of the white gold.

Believe me I don't expect a month long 2010 situation any time soon, prolonged cold is obviously rare. But a widespread snowy spell lasting even a few days has been a long time coming.

Anyway will keep an eye out for anything this weekend, Saturday should be particularly interesting for eastern counties. A few stray snow showers could result. It will certainly feel cold in the wind chill.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 07-02-2017 8:13pm

If downgrades are possible, upgrades are also possible.

Severe Frost countrywide + Occasional Snow Showers in the East from Thursday 9th Feb

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