Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Thursday, 2 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning fog may be persistent in some parts of the midlands, eventually becoming partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals, and highs around 14 to 16 C. Light winds for many but becoming moderately breezy in the west by mid-day and quite windy on the outer coast as southerly winds reach 60-80 km/hr there, accompanied by intermittent light rain.

TONIGHT ... Rain spreading gradually into western regions, becoming rather heavy at times with 10-15 mm possible. Foggy further east over higher terrain in particular, mild, moderate southerly winds. Lows 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain becoming heavy at times, especially for parts of south and east with 10-20 mm rainfalls, moderate south to southwest winds will ease slightly by afternoon, with highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Some risk of heavy rain persisting into the early morning across Leinster, becoming breezy, clearing then more passing showers developing, a few with hail or thunder mainly western counties later afternoon, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with passing showers, some with hail or thunder, lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C. Gusts to 80 km/hr from SW developing. Further rainfalls of about 10-15 mm.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, some gusts to near 80 km/hr (could reach 100 km/hr in coastal northwest), highs generally about 10-13 C, rainfalls about 15-30 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain tapering to showers, highs near 14 C. Strong SW winds at first, gusts to near 100 km/hr in Connacht, west Ulster, easing later.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern through much of October looks unsettled and somewhat cooler than average at times, with rainfall likely to reach 150% of normal values, in contrast to September.

For Britain the rain tonight and Friday will only affect western regions by late in the day and this rain could become very heavy in parts of Wales by Saturday morning. In general, the same sequence of generally cooler patterns will dominate there also.

In North America the eastern third will remain rather mild to the weekend and then become wet, turning colder at that time. The cooling trend with heavy rainfalls will soon affect most central portions, followed by quite cold northwest winds and a touch of snow possible in the western Great Lakes region by Friday. The west is warming up under high pressure and it will become very warm in the southwestern states by the weekend.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and spots of light rain around the area, highs near 15 C.

Saturday, 4 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong southerly winds late Sunday into Monday morning.

TODAY ... Moderate westerly winds, cooler with some sunny breaks, these more prolonged in Leinster, also some passing showers, slight risk of hail or thunder especially inland south and west. Highs about 14 C. Rainfalls generally only 2-4 mm with a few places staying dry (drying out perhaps more accurate).

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy in most regions, just a few brief showers but some places remaining dry. Winds backing to southwest and increasing in western counties to about 50 km/hr. Lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, becoming windy during the mid-day and afternoon hours, southerly gales 60-90 km/hr developing with highs near 14 C. Very windy in western counties by sunset, gusts to 110 km/hr. A driving rain will accompany the strong winds.

SUNDAY NIGHT heavy rain and strong winds will sweep across the country from west to east, arriving on the east coast around 0300h. About 20 mm of rain is likely, with temperatures steady 11-14 C and winds SSW 60-100 km/hr and risk of minor wind damage in exposed areas (due to full leaf loading at this early stage of autumn).

MONDAY ... Windy but moderating to breezy with further showers, some clearing developing, winds moderating to SW 40-60 km/hr. ... Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Periods of rain will develop late in the day moving northeast through most of the country to clear the east coast by Tuesday morning. 5-10 mm rainfalls with that system.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy late afternoon and evening, showers or periods of rain becoming more frequent. Some gusts to 80 km/hr but could reach 110 km/hr in coastal Mayo and Donegal. Lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C. Rainfalls 15-25 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain ending, windy (SW to W 50-90 km/hr) especially during the morning, some improvements later but further showers or rain by evening, winds may pick up again overnight (SSW 60-100 km/hr). A further 10 mm of rain on average. Lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY ... Strong winds in Connacht and west Ulster during the early morning (SW 70-110 km/hr) will gradually abate, otherwise breezy with passing showers,
5-10 mm on average, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled but not as windy, longer-term there may be another dry spell with rather mild temperatures and even some unseasonable warmth towards the 20th or so.

In Britain today, heavy rain will then head into Wales and parts of western and northern England where some regions could see some 50-70 mm falls and serious flooding. Most of this rain will then spread towards northeast to east-central England and eastern Scotland and just give the southeastern parts of England a glancing blow with strong winds developing there later today in advance of the front, as temperatures peak near 18 C mid-day and afternoon. Gusts to 100 km/hr are likely in parts of Sussex, Kent and east Anglia. For the rest of the sequence, most of the strong winds expected in Ireland will move more towards Scotland than England or Wales. It will be quite unsettled, however.

North America continues to see much cooler air masses advancing southeast and they should complete the march to the Atlantic today, except in some parts of eastern Canada which will become very windy (SE 80-130 km/hr in places). Rain is spreading east with the slow-moving fronts. Most central regions have now become quite cool and near the U.S.-Canada border highs are only about 5-7 C. The west coast will stay warmer and dry south of about central Vancouver Island. Highs in Las Vegas and Phoenix could be back near 35 C, into the 20s further north. My local weather on Friday was quite pleasant, with the sun getting through a partial high overcast, and a very mild feel at 19 C.

Monday, 6 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few sunny breaks in eastern counties, mostly cloudy otherwise and occasional showers, one or two becoming thundery, further rainfalls about 2-5 mm for most, 5-10 mm in parts of coastal northwest and inland west Munster. Highs 14-15 C. Winds generally quite moderate with a few gusts to about 50 km/hr. The winds will tend to back to southeast by late afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of rain likely across the south, 5-10 mm on average, only scattered drizzle or light showers further north, 1-3 mm there. Lows about 3 C. Some isolated frost could develop inland west and north.

TUESDAY ... Some sunshine at times, then increasing cloud, slowly advancing rain in western counties, moderate southerly winds developing. Highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming rather windy, showers or periods of rain, slight risk of thunder. Rainfalls about 20 mm in west, 5-10 mm east. Morning lows about 8-10 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers, breezy. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, evening or overnight rain developing, lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers (rain east coast) then clearing, rather chilly with highs only 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, cool. Isolated frost, lows near 1 C and highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled, temperatures near or somewhat above normal by mid-month.

Today, Britain will see the wind and rain from the departed storm although it is weakening slowly, gusts to 110 km/hr are already being reported in western parts of Britain. The longer term pattern will be unsettled with frequent showers, similar to the above forecast.

North America remains rather cool across eastern and central regions with a weak frontal wave bringing light rain to the Ohio valley; this will spread to the east coast tomorrow. Further west it will be very mild to warm with highs in the 20s to 30s further south. My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks and quite warm, high near 22 C.

Wednesday, 8 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Widespread thundery showers with some intense lightning and hail across large portions of the southern and central counties, reaching the east coast by mid-morning. Ulster may see somewhat less active showers with more isolated thunder. There are several more waves of these thunderstorms due to move inland from the Atlantic during the day, and many parts of Munster, south Connacht and south Leinster may have several rounds of them. Brief sunny intervals may develop between showers. Rainfalls will be generally 10-20 mm except for 20-30 mm locally in west Munster, but as little as 5-8 mm in east Ulster. Highs will reach 14-16 C. Winds near the south coast will occasionally gust to about 50-60 km/hr from the south, but otherwise winds in most regions will be light to moderate southeasterly veering to south later.

TONIGHT ... Further thundery showers although with a tendency for them to die out and move further east after midnight. Winds diminishing in most regions as the centre of low pressure drifts through Munster, winds backing to east then northeast in Ulster and north Connacht as a result. Some fog developing, rainfalls generally 5-10 mm but possibly 10-15 mm southeast, lows around 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some prolonged showers mainly shifting more to northern counties in a developing westerly flow, gusts to 60 km/hr and highs of about 13 C north, 15 C south.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking unsettled with occasional rain or showers, and highs near 14 C after morning lows of 5-7 C.

SUNDAY is likely to bring more sunshine than cloud, and some morning ground frost, in light northerly winds -- just a few isolated hail or rain showers near north-facing coasts. Lows near 1 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY will be sunny with scattered morning frosts, lows near -1 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK for next week calls for increasing cloud and possible showers near west coast during a series of warm fronts, but eventually a more settled and very warm interval where highs could be in the 18-21 C range. This interval could bring some dense fog at night under otherwise clear skies. This warmer spell is expected to peak around the 18th to 20th.

Meanwhile, my local weather has been like that for several days and Tuesday was no exception, hazy sunshine and a high of 20 C. Some high cloud around and a threat of fog, as I wait to see if the total eclipse is visible around 0340h here (1140h there).

Friday, 10 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with scattered showers, some becoming thundery (most likely west and south). Rainfalls 3-7 mm on average, highs near 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers becoming less frequent, some clearing towards dawn with lows 2-5 C (isolated ground frost likely). Some fog patches developing.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with a few more showers, one or two thundery, highs near 14 C. Average rainfalls 2-5 mm.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, showers more isolated and most places likely to remain dry. Morning lows -1 to +3 C with some frost, afternoon highs 12-14C.

MONDAY ... Risk of an interval of rain in east although it may stay just off to the east, but isolated showers more certain to develop in moderate northeast breezes, in parts of east Ulster and Leinster. Further west, less cloud and more sunshine, after a somewhat chilly start. Lows around 2 C west, 5-7 C in the east, and highs for most 12-15 C, could reach 16 C in western coastal regions.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, some risk of rain arriving later in the day from the south, a little warmer. Lows 4-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mild to warm, moderate southeast to south winds, some rain at times but also dry spells when sunshine could boost temperatures towards 18-20 C range. This warmer spell could persist to about the following weekend before somewhat cooler air arrives from west on gusty westerly winds.

As mentioned yesterday, Britain will get the full force of the Sunday night into Monday wind and rain and forecasts keep shifting because of small variations in the track of this system, but I notice that the European model has gone back to a more easterly track this morning, taking the low into the North Sea. If some other guidance showing the low in central Britain were to prove accurate, this rain could back up further and overspread Leinster on Monday, so this is why you may find some difference in forecasts. Chances are probably about equal that the rain will stay away from Ireland or move into the east; the west is almost guaranteed to avoid it on Monday.

Meanwhile, my local weather continues fabulous for this time of year, sunny, hazy and warm again on Thursday, with the high close to 20 C.

Sunday, 12 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Dense fog may persist to about 9:30 or 10 o'clock in some rural areas, otherwise, sunny with a few cloudy intervals for most, with extensive cloud confined to north coastal districts. Light northeast winds, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud in southeast, remaining clear elsewhere, fog developing in lower lying rural districts. Lows generally -1 to +3 C but 4-6 C in southeast.

MONDAY ... Cloudy across parts of south and east, risk of an interval of rain although latest guidance tends to keep the rain just offshore (except perhaps Rosslare to Waterford). Isolated and brief showers could develop later in the east as winds freshen from the east-northeast. Highs about 13 C but could reach 15 C in parts of Connacht and west Munster.

TUESDAY ... Morning frost and fog patches, then some sunshine with variable cloud spreading in from south, more sunshine in central and northern counties, winds backing to southeast and increasing to 40-60 km/hr by afternoon and evening. Rain approaching west Munster by evening. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy to windy, periods of rain, milder, morning lows 9-12 C and afternoon highs 14-17 C. Winds SE veering to S 50-80 km/hr in exposed coastal regions.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Mild to warm, moderate southerly winds, a few sunny intervals and passing showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 or 18 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There could be an interval of strong winds, as the large Atlantic low absorbs "Fay" north of the Azores, but some guidance suggsts that it will survive in some form with a tighter gradient reaching northwest coastal regions around Friday night or Saturday morning. Otherwise the weekend should remain quite mild and variable in cloud cover, some showers still possible, similar temperatures (12 to 18 C). There may be a gradual cooling trend setting in by Sunday or more likely Monday.

From there to end of the month, likely closer to average for temperatures and relatively dry, but with the risk of a passing windy system of tropical origins later in the final week. That one is just now getting organized near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

For Britain, rain and strong east to southeast winds will spread in to the south tonight and continue most of Monday, 20-40 mm possible, and temperatures both today and Monday steady near 14-16 C. After that, the trends will be more similar to the above forecast.

In North America eastern regions will turn very warm for a couple of days ahead of a slow-moving frontal system now in the central plains states. Rather chilly behind that today and in the Midwest on Monday, but trending back to warm in the far west, with weak frontal systems coming on shore in British Columbia. My local weather on Saturday was wet to start out then partly cloudy with a high near 17 C.

Tuesday, 14 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy in parts of east and south, with isolated light showers, otherwise partly sunny with increasing cloud this afternoon, moderate east to southeast winds developing. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming cloudy except for a few parts of Ulster remaining clear, rain spreading into south coast towards morning. Lows 6-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, moderate southeast winds becoming strong at times near south coast, rain spreading north, light for many areas until mid-afternoon, but heavy in parts of Munster before mid-day. Eventually 10-15 mm rain by evening for most, 5-10 mm east Ulster. Winds increasing to SE'ly 50-70 km/hr with possible higher gusts near Cork and Waterford. Highs reaching about 16 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, warmer and more humid, occasional showers, slight risk of thunder. Lows 11-13 C and highs 16-19 C. Moderate southerly winds 40-60 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, becoming windy and very mild, periods of rain may become heavy at times, 15-20 mm rain potentially. Lows 13-15 C and highs about 17-19 C. Winds SSW 70-100 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks, showers more isolated and winds not quite as strong from SSW at 40-60 km/hr. Lows 11-13 C and highs about 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, mild but turning a bit fresher during the day, passing showers or periods of rain developing. Moderate SW winds. Lows about 12 C and highs about 16 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are likely to remain unsettled and breezy with temperatures closer to normal values, highs 11-14 C. There may be very strong winds at times towards the end of October. Yesterday I mentioned Gonzalo being involved, now looks more like a system following Gonzalo which will probably end up close to Greenland by the weekend after giving Bermuda a raking on Thursday morning. So another low, itself possibly of tropical origins, will then move along in the trailing cold frontal zone and models keep trying to develop this into a strong windstorm around Ireland, timing at this point is uncertain but Wednesday to Friday of the following week (22nd-24th) seem most likely.

Meanwhile, my local weather on (holiday) Monday here was cloudy and mild with rain spreading in after a break at mid-day, rather heavy at times this evening, and associated with remnants of a typhoon which moved past Japan last week (the centre of that decaying storm is up around Alaska). The high here was about 16 C. Severe storms were widespread in the south central states with a few tornados reported.

Thursday, 16 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, some sunshine at times, warmer and more humid, leading to occasional showers, slight risk of thunder with highs 16-18 C. Moderate southerly winds 40-60 km/hr. Rainfalls rather variable, 5 mm for most, 10-20 mm possible though.

TONIGHT ... Very mild with a few isolated showers, thunder dying out (if it persists into the evening) and lows 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, becoming windy and very mild, periods of rain may become heavy at times, 15-20 mm rain potentially. Lows 13-15 C and highs about 17-19 C. Winds SSW 60-90 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks, showers more isolated and winds not quite as strong from SSW at 40-60 km/hr. Lows 11-13 C and highs about 18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, mild but turning a bit fresher during the day, passing showers or periods of rain developing. Moderate SW winds. Lows about 12 C and highs about 16 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers both morning and late afternoon, then an interval of blustery weather (remnants of Gonzalo) overnight into Tuesday morning, with the moderate daytime westerly winds increasing to near gale force at times (gusts to 70 km/hr daytime but as high as 110 km/hr in exposed northern areas by late evening through early morning Tuesday). Lows about 7 C and highs about 14 or 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued windy at first (WNW 60-100 km/hr) with showers clearing east, then breezy with sunny intervals developing, morning lows near 8 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY of next week will continue breezy and slightly unsettled but it should be reasonably mild and at times pleasant in sunny intervals, with temperatures quite close to seasonal normals (highs 13-14 C). Sharp frosts are unlikely but ground frost may develop in sheltered inland southern areas due to clearer skies and lighter winds there.

The general trends for Britain will be similar although southeast England will not see as much rain in the next few days with most of it heading further north. The wind and heavy showers from Gonzalo will race eastward very fast and will affect Britain just hours later than Ireland, mostly first half of Tuesday.

In North America, the warmer spell recently in eastern states is gradually trending to near normal temperatures as a trough edges east to capture Gonzalo near Newfoundland on Sunday -- at that time, cooler weather waiting over central Canada will have a more unobstructed path south although temperatures will only fall about 3 or 4 degrees below normal. The west remains rather mild with frequent blustery showers over northern portions of the Pacific northwest and most of B.C. ... My local weather on Wednesday was mild with occasional rain and fog, with a high near 16 C.

SPECIAL FORECAST ADVISORY -- VERY STRONG WINDS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY MORNING from REMNANTS of GONZALO
______________________________________________

Forecast guidance for the track and intensity of Gonzalo's remnant low is showing about 10-15% intensification over the guidance for our earlier forecast although this was suspected so this new advisory will be closer to the 10% increase. Now thinking that peak wind gusts could be around 120 km/hr in exposed locations especially in Connacht and west Ulster. These winds will develop rather rapidly on Monday night, towards midnight, and will peak around 0300-0600h Tuesday while staying quite strong most of Tuesday morning. Dangerous conditions are likely to develop over the near Atlantic marine areas and I would not be surprised if force 11-12 forecasts appear for these regions towards the event. High surf, waves and swell likely on all portions of exposed west coast before and after Tuesday morning high tides, if the current guidance is accurate.

The wind direction will veer from SW to WNW during the passage of the storm. About 15-25 mm of wind-driven rain can also be expected. Conditions will be somewhat less intense in Leinster although peak gusts could reach 110 km/hr there, while east Munster should see a peak near 100 km/hr. West Munster may not be quite as windy as Connacht but with some uncertainty involved we should say 110-120 km/hr for exposed parts there, duration may not be as long.

The low is predicted to track due east then slightly south of that once it passes Scotland. A severe windstorm is therefore also likely over most of the Irish Sea and North Sea on Tuesday. Central portions of Britain from southern Scotland to the English Midlands will take the brunt of the storm. Later on, severe conditions will spread into Holland, Belgium, northern Germany and southern Denmark.

Watch for updates. We expect there might be some scattered power outages by Tuesday morning and trees down on roads especially in western counties but not exclusively confined to there.

Meanwhile, cat-3 Hurricane Gonzalo is currently approaching Bermuda with the eye forecast to be over the island by about 2200h IST which is 1800h local time in Bermuda. This radar will show developments:

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/gonzalo14/Gonzalo_17Oct14_bermuda_long.gif

(on the Gonzalo thread I will post a link to a live web-cam if I don't find it already on there).

Saturday, 18 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls (20-25 mm), mainly in west Munster, today with possible local flooding. Risk of intense lightning with some of the showers. ADVANCE ALERT for strong winds and heavy rainfalls, especially in Connacht and west Ulster, on Monday night, associated with remnant low of Gonzalo.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny breaks more likely in east, showers and a few thunderstorms more persistent in west Munster where heavy thunder or hail could develop, and winds generally moderate SSW 40-70 km/hr but with some higher gusts developing by afternoon. Warm and humid with highs about 17 or 18 C. Rainfalls generally 5-10 mm but 20-25 mm in parts of west Munster and 10-15 mm in Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Showers or periods of rain, blustery SW winds 40-70 km/hr, lows about 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, mild but turning a bit fresher during the day, passing showers or periods of rain developing. Moderate SW winds about 50 km/hr with highs about 15 or 16 C. Some sunny intervals especially for eastern counties. Rainfalls generally about 5 mm on average.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers both morning and late afternoon, then an interval of blustery weather (remnants of Gonzalo) overnight into Tuesday morning, with the moderate daytime westerly winds increasing to near gale force at times (gusts to 70 km/hr daytime but as high as 120 km/hr in exposed coastal areas by late evening through early morning Tuesday). Morning lows about 7 C and highs about 14 or 15 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm by late overnight. Possible coastal flooding at high tides on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Large swells and waves developing on west coast. The peak of this storm is likely to be around midnight to 0600h on the west coast and around 0600 to 1200h Tuesday in eastern counties where not quite as severe.

TUESDAY ... Continued windy at first (WNW 70-110 km/hr) with showers clearing east, then breezy with sunny intervals developing, morning lows near 8 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C. Feeling quite cold in the strong winds although much improved conditions in most places except for a few exposed coastal locations ... high surf advisory with large waves and swells, morning high tides on west coast could be a concern as new moon is not that far away by 21st.

WEDNESDAY ... Milder again with some sunny intervals, late showers or periods of rain developing. Lows 2-5 C and highs 13-16 C.

OUTLOOK (Thursday 24th to Sunday 27th) ... Staying rather mild and breezy as the WSW flow continues. The winds should be generally less blustery too. Highs about 12-14 C. Another round of showers or rainfall towards Friday, but after that a more settled trend with models hinting at a warm dry spell (likely with dense fog at night) towards Hallowe'en.

Gonzalo has created quite a bit of damage on Bermuda with winds on some higher exposed ground there clocked at over 200 km/hr. The storm is now racing away from the island towards the southeast tip of Newfoundland which it should pass Sunday afternoon.

My local weather was overcast with periods of rain and fog on Friday, and mild with highs near 16 C.

Monday, 20 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for strong winds, heavy rainfalls and potential moderate storm surge (west coast only) tonight and Tuesday morning.

TODAY ... Passing showers, some of them rather heavy, with brief sunny intervals, winds generally moderate SW (40-70 km/hr) until late afternoon, and highs 13-15 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Stormy conditions will develop rapidly especially in Connacht and west Ulster, from vigorous remnants of Gonzalo. Periods of heavy rain will develop with some embedded thunder. Winds will rapidly increase to SW 70-100 km/hr in most regions and 90-130 km/hr in exposed locations of the northwest. This will produce a moderate storm surge into Galway Bay, Donegal Bay and other coastal areas, note that astronomical high tides are around 0430 to 0500h which unfortunately is well timed to coincide with the surge. Overtopping by 0.5m or more can be expected. The conditions will not be quite as severe in west Munster although very blustery at times. The south coast could also have a brief period of strong winds before the trough passes. Note also, conditions over marine areas of the near Atlantic will become very rough overnight and force 11-12 winds are possible off the west coast and possibly force 10-11 off the south coast briefly (force 9-10 likely Irish Sea by mid-morning).

More generally, the strong winds and blustery showers will make driving rather dangerous with a few trees coming down, power outages, and the potential for local flooding or hydroplaning conditions. Temperatures overnight will be steady near 10 C, falling off slightly in Connacht by morning to 7 C. Rainfalls of about 20 mm are likely in most regions, 30 mm locally inland northwest.

TUESDAY ... The very strong winds will gradually moderate in most regions, but may persist well into the afternoon in parts of Ulster and north Leinster, as well as coastal north Connacht. Passing showers will become confined to the north with more frequent sunny intervals in the south. Winds WNW 70-110 km/hr easing to 40-70 km/hr. Feeling cold all day north, morning elsewhere due to the wind, highs eventually reaching 10 C north, 13 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder, although steady rain likely near north coast and in some inland parts of Ulster. Highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, mild, periods of rain. Lows near 8 C and highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Showers at times, gradual improvement into next week, some very mild and at times sunny conditions towards end of the month.

Note that the wind and rain will hit parts of Scotland, northern England and Wales during the early morning Tuesday and will continue most of the day in eastern England. Otherwise the pattern there will be similar to the above. The storm will have somewhat less impact on southern England although coastal wind gusts to 110 km/hr are likely, inland it will be around 80 km/hr at peak.

Will update North America later in the week, for now, my local weather on Sunday was very warm with highs into the low 20s. There was a lot of cloud with brief sunny breaks.

Wednesday, 22 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Periods of rain in most of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster could brush the Dublin region (north especially) around 10:00 to noon, but south of a Galway-Dublin line it should remain mostly dry and the sun could break through the cloud at times, as it probably will in the north by afternoon, leading to a sunny afternoon for parts of the southwest. This rainfall will amount to about 7-10 mm where it hits, and highs will range from 13 C in the north to 16 C in parts of the inland south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, a few light showers and mild, lows 7-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild, occasional light rain or showers, some fog on hills due to a generally low cloud ceiling, and highs about 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 6 C and highs 13-15 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain developing, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The earlier indications of a mild, dry spell may hold true in part for the south around mid-week but the high pressure involved is looking weaker as we get closer to the time, and strong low pressure will definitely push it away into central Europe by Thursday, bringing heavy rain in time for Hallowe'en. Hopefully this will move through during the day but it's a long way off yet. Eventually into November the longer range indications show gradual cooling to rather cold weather before mid-month.

Britain will have quite a similar outlook in general. In North America, a low off the New England coast is spreading rain and moderate northeast winds into the larger cities on the east coast; further north and west it's just cloudy and mostly dry but cool. Temperatures warm steadily through central regions into the Rockies and southwestern states, while a strong front moving inland is bringing strong winds and heavy rains to the Pacific coast. My local weather was quite cloudy all day but rain and gusty southeast winds have just arrived here, temperatures are steady near 12 or 13 C.

Hoping to post a more detailed winter forecast later today and I will link to it in tomorrow's forecast.

Friday, 24 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, isolated showers although more widespread in the northwest, highs 11-13 C for most, 13-15 C southeast.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, showers becoming more widespread then a few periods of rain, about 10 mm on average ... highs 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... Continued cloudy and mild, showers, lows 5-8 C, highs 12-15C.

MONDAY ... Rain becoming heavier during the day, quite mild, highs 13-16 C.
Rainfalls of about 15-25 mm. Spot flooding risk.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending, partial clearing, then a second wave of rain arriving during the afternoon and evening. Highs near 14 C, another 10-20 mm rain.

OUTLOOK ... Becoming very mild with occasional rain heavier in south and west, highs could reach 16 or even 17 C, very mild nights, some fog.

This mild spell looks like hanging on to about Hallowe'en or perhaps 1st of November then a gradual cooling trend, maps do not yet show anything too extreme but you can see much colder air masses lurking to north and northeast by second week of the GFS run (which admittedly is almost to be expected).

By the way, I missed the timing of the recent new moon which took place on Thursday evening in universal time, and was associated with a solar eclipse over parts of the southern hemisphere. The weather for my part of the world on Thursday was overcast and mild with the odd sprinkle of rain, 14 C.

Sunday, 26 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY, TONIGHT and MONDAY will continue cloudy and very mild with the rain rather heavy at times in parts of the northwest but otherwise drizzly and intermittent, with some brief intervals of brighter weather in the daytime hours near the Wicklow and Dublin coasts and in parts of the inland southeast. It will be close to 15 or 16 C daytime and 12-13 C at night. Moderate southwest winds will gradually weaken through later Sunday (today) and it won't be as breezy for most on Monday with the wind more southerly.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY MORNING will see a pulse of heavy rain moving slowly eastward across Ireland with 20-30 mm likely. Temperatures during this rainfall will start out near 14 C and end up closer to 9 or 10 C by mid-day Tuesday. After that, TUESDAY AFTERNOON will see higher cloud gradually breaking up in a gentle northerly flow and the rain will end (latest timing for the southeast around mid-day to early afternoon). So for parts of Connacht then Tuesday could become relatively dry but elsewhere the rain could produce some minor flooding which would gradually subside after the rain ends.

WEDNESDAY will bring a very brief dry interlude with the clearing skies likely to promote a bit of ground frost (north central inland mainly) but it will then begin to cloud over from the next surge of mild air and sunshine may be limited to the eastern counties and Ulster, and mainly morning hours. Lows near -1 C to +3 C and highs 9 to 12 C for most on Wednesday then, with light rain returning to the Munster coasts by late in the day.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will become mild and breezy with occasional rain, possibly another surge of heavier rain in that by Thursday night or Friday morning. Temperatures will once again level off around 13 or 14 C, night and day.

The outlook beyond that calls for gradually cooling temperatures that will return to the normal early November range (8-10 C daytime, slight frosts possible at night to around 3-5 C for lows).

The pattern for Britain will be pretty much the same as the above, with the rain directed mainly to the north of England and Scotland until Tuesday.

In North America, some rain continues in New England but it is clear and rather warm for most between the mid-Atlantic coasts and the central plains. Fronts are approaching the Midwest with slightly cooler air but a colder push is expected at the very hour of Hallowe'en, in fact it could be snowing in places such as Buffalo NY and Montreal as October yields to November. Meanwhile, remnants of a central Pacific hurricane (Ana) are sliding northeast to join forces with a low south of Alaska, and all that will slam into the west coast over my MT Cranium on Monday night and Tuesday. There is some uncertainty from the models about how much of Ana's circulation will remain separate from the much larger low, so wind speed is more of a question than heavy rainfall at this point. On Saturday, we were being soaked by rain from a different frontal system out ahead of all that, so Sunday could see a few breaks. It is rather mild, around 15 C.

Tuesday, 28 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Temperatures during the slowly advancing band of moderate to heavy rainfall (20-25 mm possible) will start out near 14 C and end up closer to 9 or 10 C by mid-day Tuesday. After that, TUESDAY AFTERNOON will see higher cloud gradually breaking up in a gentle northerly flow and the rain will end (latest timing for the southeast around mid-afternoon to early evening). So for parts of Connacht then Tuesday could become relatively dry but elsewhere the rain could produce some minor flooding which would gradually subside after the rain ends. Winds generally rather light to moderate as they shift from south-southwest to northerly with the frontal passage. Slight risk of thunder in Leinster, east Ulster, and Waterford.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing, much colder with risk of slight frost especially over inland Connacht and Ulster, north Leinster with lows -1 to +3 C there, probably closer to 5 C near south, east coasts and 7 C west coast. Fog patches and isolated icy patches could develop with the frost.

WEDNESDAY will bring a very brief dry interlude with the clearing skies likely to maintain a bit of ground frost (north central inland mainly) to around 0930 or later, slowly warming temperatures elsewhere, but it will then begin to cloud over from the next surge of mild air and sunshine may be limited to the eastern counties and Ulster, and mainly morning hours. Highs 9 to 12 C for most on Wednesday then, with light rain returning to the Munster coasts by late in the day.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will become mild and breezy with occasional rain, possibly another surge of heavier rain in that by Thursday night or Friday morning. Temperatures will once again level off around 13 or 14 C, night and day. Moderate southerly winds with gusts to about 60 or 70 km/hr at times.

After a rather variable Friday night with passing showers and moderate southwest winds and midnight temperatures close to 7 or 8 C, the WEEKEND will continue rather mild although closer to 10 C with occasional rain in a moderate southwest wind. It will gradually become fresher and will feel somewhat cooler.

The outlook beyond that calls for gradually cooling temperatures that will return to the normal early November range (8-10 C daytime, slight frosts possible at night to around 3-5 C for lows). There are now some indications of a brief colder turn in northerly winds around 3-4 November, snow would be a marginal risk and confined to peaks mainly. It could then return to a milder southwest flow for a few days.

My local weather on Monday was wet and breezy, but the stronger winds stayed out on the west coast of the Island and up towards the north coast of B.C., our high was about 13 C.

Thursday, 30 October, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, moderate southeast to southerly winds, with a few gusts to 60 km/hr, milder again with highs 13-15 C for most and possibly reaching 16 or 17 C in the south and east.

TONIGHT ... Very mild, light rain and fog developing, moderate southerly winds and lows only 12-14 C.

FRIDAY ... Heavy rain at times, crossing the country rather slowly from west to east, should be mostly clear of the east coast by late evening, but not before giving most places 20-25 mm of rain. Moderate southerly winds and fog especially near coasts and over hills. Highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... A somewhat fresher day with a bright start in most areas, isolated showers becoming more widespread, then another interval of heavy rain towards afternoon west, evening east, accompanied by gusty southwest winds. Thunder could develop along a squally cold front, lows 8-10 C and highs near 13 C. Winds could gust to 90 or 100 km/hr at times by afternoon. Rainfalls about 20 mm.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, fresher with southwest winds 50-70 km/hr and lows near 6 C, highs near 13 C. Possible hail and thunder especially over western counties. Rainfalls about 10 mm.

MONDAY ... Breezy, rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers with risk of thunder or hail, and falling temperatures in the 7-9 C range. Rainfalls about 5 to 8 mm.

TUESDAY ... Windy and quite cold with passing showers of rain or hail. Sleet or snow possible on summits. Winds becoming NW 50-80 km/hr (after an interval of slack or light southeast winds near a low centre) and lows 3-4 C with highs only 5-8 C. Rainfalls about 8-12 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued rather cold and windy with passing sleety showers that will be mostly rain or hail at lower elevations, mixed and wintry on hills. It may become mainly dry in regions not directly exposed to a northerly flow from the ocean, especially the south central counties. Lows about 2 C and highs around 6 or 7 C. Winds NW to N 40-70 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, some morning frost. Lows near 0 C and highs near 7 C east, 10-13 C west as rain returns in southerly winds. Becoming very windy by late afternoon or evening in western regions.

OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat milder again in strong south to southwest winds, periods of rain, highs 9-12 C late next week. Despite that rise in temperatures, the pattern looks rather raw and unpleasant.

See yesterday's forecast for thoughts on Britain and North America, no changes in general there. My local weather on Wednesday was quite mild and apparently we just fell fractionally short of the daily record (which was 17.3 C for Vancouver) -- it was dry but cloudy with the odd spit of rain, although heavier echoes on radar just to my west, but those moving north. Looks like the slowly advancing front will give us a downpour here on Thursday and may even spread rain into parched areas of California by Friday. The very mild air is going to spread east across the Rockies into the southern prairies for a few days while much colder air spreads south towards the Great Lakes.

Saturday, 1 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A bright start to the day for Leinster as well as some parts of Ulster, increasing cloud east Munster and inland Connacht, Donegal, while rain spreads into the Atlantic coastal counties. This rain will eventually cover all other regions and bring another 15-25 mm on average, with some spot flooding. Highs 13-15 C. Moderate southerly winds will increase to strong southwest at times, especially for the southeastern counties this afternoon, where some gusts to 80 km/hr are likely.

TONIGHT ... Showers less frequent, strong southwest winds easing to 30-50 km/hr, lows about 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... A rather similar day although somewhat fresher and colder feeling with highs only 11-13 C. About 10-20 mm rain in the active showers, some of which could become thundery. Winds SW increasing again to 60-80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing squally showers with hail and thunder. Cold more due to the wind than temperatures which will range from lows near 4 C to highs near 11 C. Winds SW to W 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TUESDAY ... Cold and becoming windy by afternoon after a period of rather slack winds as low pressure moves southeast across the Irish Sea. Winds becoming northwest 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 or 10 C. Showers or periods of light rain could become sleety on high terrain, hail showers may mix in lower down at times. Rainfall (equivalent) about 5-10 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... During the early morning, any remnant cold air (over north Leinster, east Ulster) will be scoured out by milder air advancing on southerly winds. Rain will return and winds will slowly increase to 50-80 km/hr by later afternoon. Overnight lows could be frosty near midnight but then temperatures will rise to 5-8 C. Highs 9-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy (possibly very windy at times) with squally showers, temperatures briefly touching 15 C mid-day in southerly gales, then falling slowly later to near 8 C. Possible squall line that we can monitor closer to the actual time.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND will become rather cold and unsettled with temperatures between 7 and 10 C. There are some signs of even colder weather developing mid-month but no strong model consensus.

Will update Britain and North America in a day or two, my local weather on Friday was quite unpleasant until mid-afternoon with fog and rain, but a bit of clearing greeted the kids (and some adults) on their rounds. Max was 14 C.

Snow flurries fell this morning in Chicago and hilltops are turning white in the northeastern U.S. with mixed squall bands developing from the Great Lakes which did not become as warm this past summer as most years due to the very cold winter in 2013-14 and lacklustre temperatures at best all year. This may shift the snow squall season forward into NOV-DEC more than the usual DEC-JAN peak. The other day I mentioned my long-range forecast for Ireland but for North America, will be expecting very cold air to dominate in most regions with the west coast trying to hold on to persistent warmth but sometimes joining the rest of the continent under arctic air masses. Newfoundland and the eastern arctic may have above normal temperatures with a ridge expected over the west-central Atlantic. It may be a snowy and stormy winter in parts of the eastern U.S. and the Midwest, Great Lakes. Florida won't always be in the colder air, but some periods may be quite chilly there as well (meaning frosts in the citrus belt).

Monday, 3 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with brief intervals of sunshine, passing squally showers with hail and thunder. Cold more due to the wind than temperatures which will range from 6-8 C in some parts of the north to highs near 11 C over most of the country (although temperatures could drop several degrees during heavier showers especially if hail develops). Winds SW to W 50-70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, showers or periods of light rain, occasional clear intervals, cold with lows 4-7 C. About 3-5 mm rain.

TUESDAY ... Cold and becoming windy by afternoon after a period of rather slack winds (away from west Munster which will remain windy) as low pressure moves southeast across the Irish Sea. Winds becoming northwest at 50-70 km/hr. Highs near 9 or 10 C. Showers or periods of light rain could become sleety on high terrain, hail showers may mix in lower down at times. Rainfall (equivalent) about 5-10 mm. Frosty in some places during the evening and around midnight.

WEDNESDAY ... During the early morning, any remnant cold air (over north Leinster, east Ulster) will be scoured out by milder air advancing on southerly winds except possibly in parts of east Ulster and north Leinster. Rain will return by mid-day on the outer west coast and by evening in most other regions, as winds slowly increase to 50-80 km/hr by later afternoon or evening. Overnight lows could be frosty near midnight (as low as -2 C around Monaghan and Cavan) but then temperatures will rise to 5-8 C. Afternoon or evening highs 9-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy (possibly very windy at times) with squally showers, temperatures briefly touching 15 C mid-day in southerly gales of 70-100 km/hr, then falling slowly later to near 8 C. Possible squall line that we can monitor closer to the actual time, giving some thunderstorms and gusty winds.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND will become rather cold and unsettled with temperatures between 7 and 10 C. Models are now showing somewhat weakened low pressure off the south coast of Ireland, looping around and moving back to the northwest slowly between 7th and 10th of November. Some rather persistent light rain and moderate east winds may develop, and snow or sleet could accumulate on summits around Sunday night or Monday night as the flow will not be particularly mild (around 6-9 C at sea level, 2-5 C higher up). At this point, models are divergent on how this rather slack weather pattern might further develop, with some suggestion of milder air trying to push back from the southeast, although that looks like it might be held back over eastern England before the situation then transforms to a blocking ridge of high that could return somewhat colder air from the northeast into the circulation by mid-month. That being said, there is not much on the 10-15 day maps to suggest very dramatic weather events, just a rather chilly pattern in general.

For Britain, would expect that all these events will unfold about a half day later on average, until we get to the point where blocking begins, then it could be somewhat warmer in England for a while around the 10th to 13th, before colder air sags south. Snow is likely to start appearing on higher summits of Wales, northern England and Scotland in the next week or so, but not at lower elevations.

In North America, much colder weather seems to be gaining control as the jet stream is now running more across the southern U.S. which remains generally near normal in contrast to the colder than average readings that are common in the northern states and southern Canada. This trends to more average values near the west coast where some light rain is spreading in, but in general the weather systems are weak, except for the departing storm now moving north towards the Labrador Sea. My local weather on Sunday was overcast with drizzly light rain at times, and the high was about 12 C.

Wednesday, 5 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls tonight and Thursday, 20-25 mm likely, accompanied by strong wind gusts at times to 100 km/hr. Some flooding may develop by afternoon or evening tomorrow.


TODAY ... Sunny intervals for north and east, with increasing cloud during the afternoon. Highs 8-10 C. ... Cloudy by mid-day in south and west, becoming rather windy by late afternoon as rain begins to move in. Highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with periods of rain, mild in west and south, winds increasing to southerly 50-80 km/hr. Lows 7-9 C. Cloudy but dry at first in east and north, lowest temperatures before or around midnight (lows 3-5 C) and rain arriving before daybreak.

THURSDAY ... Windy and mild with intervals of heavy rain, becoming squally towards late afternoon with risk of thunder, southerly winds 70-110 km/hr and highs 13-15 C. Foggy especially over higher terrain, dense fog may limit visibility in parts of the inland north and northwest. Rainfalls for most regions about 20-25 mm, some spot flooding could develop.

THURSDAY NIGHT ... Heavy rain may continue over parts of Leinster as a wave is now expected to develop on the cold front and move north into the Irish Sea. A further 10-20 mm rain may fall in the inland southeast, Wicklow and Dublin with 5-10 mm further north and west, but western regions may escape almost without further rainfall. Lows 5-8 C. The strong winds will abate before the rain ends, then it may become moderately windy again towards morning.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloudiness with occasional showers, breezy to windy at times, and colder with highs 8-11 C. Rainfalls about 5 mm.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool with occasional light rain but some dry intervals, misty to foggy at times too. Highs will average 8-9 C. Slight frosts could develop over inland north.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY are looking unsettled, but details are not too reliable yet as some models show quite a strong low approaching the south around Wednesday 12th, which would lead to heavy rain and strong winds. Other guidance is more subdued although unsettled. Temperatures will likely stay fairly close to 10 C daytime.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and rather hazy with highs of about 13 C.

Friday, 7 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals for the east with isolated showers developing, cloudy for west and north, partly cloudy for south, more widespread showers that could turn heavy in parts of west Munster. Highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm west, considerably less during the day east.

TONIGHT ... A few intervals of rain persisting across the south with 5-10 mm possible, cloudy with a few clear intervals further north, slight risk of frost and icy sections on roads in north central counties. Lows near 5 C south, and in the range of -1 to +3 C elsewhere.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain across the south and showers in parts of the north, with highs 8-11 C. Rainfalls 3-7 mm.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy at times (west to northwest) with showers, lows about 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Becoming foggy and milder with intervals of rain with highs near 13 C and about 10-15 mm rainfall.

TUESDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy with showers more isolated, highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, east to northeast winds may become rather brisk, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are continuing hints of a colder turn after mid-month although maximum temperatures would not fall below freezing but might be as low as 4-7 C if some of this guidance proves correct.

My local weather was very mild on Thursday, with a few sunny breaks and light showers in the area, highs reached 16 or 17 C around the region.

Sunday, 9 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with rather frequent showers developing, after a dry morning in parts of Leinster and east Munster. Some of the showers could produce brief thunder or hail, but in general rainfall amounts only 3-7 mm, with highs reaching 10 to 12 C. Breezes from west to northwest will be moderate at times.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, more persistent in east Ulster and north Leinster, eastern Connacht. Lows -2 to +2 C. This may produce some scattered frost or freezing fog with slippery roads tomorrow morning in those regions. Further south and west, cloudy with lows about 3-6 C.

MONDAY ... Any morning sunshine will fade behind advancing cloud, as rain spreads into Munster during the morning, Connacht to south Leinster mid-day and other regions further east by afternoon. About 15-20 mm rain likely, milder with gusty southeast to south winds developing, highs 11-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain may continue early morning leading to fog, and then slow clearing with mild temperatures, lows 6-8 C and highs 11-14 C. Some light rain could be more persistent near Dublin as weak disturbances form over the Irish Sea moving north, but many other places could have a dry interval.

WEDNESDAY ... Scattered showers or periods of rain, mild with south to southeast winds sometimes rather gusty, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Moderate or even heavy rain likely with strong southeast winds, temperatures steady in the 8-11 C range. Potential for about 20-30 mm rainfalls.

OUTLOOK ... The storm track will shift further south and place Ireland in a mostly dry southeast to easterly flow that is not being advertised as particularly cold although slight frosts would be expected especially in central and inland northern counties. Daytime highs would be around 7 to 9 C.

As cold air masses over central Canada to move south in waves this coming week, the west coast remains rather mild and we enjoyed some sunshine for a change on Saturday with highs near 10 C. The strong storm in the Bering Sea is gradually filling up now and will be almost gone by this time tomorrow.

Tuesday, 11 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain will feed north into the eastern and some central counties, and some thundery bursts may develop, with 15-20 mm possible. Further west, a few dry intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain also moving north mainly near the Atlantic coasts. Amounts there closer to 5-10 mm. Mild with highs reaching 12-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to drizzle and fog, mild, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... More rain likely, although this time more concentrated on western counties, again with risk of thunder, 10-20 mm possible. Generally cloudy but with a few brighter intervals especially for Ulster and north Leinster. Highs around 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy and wet with southeast winds veering to south or southwest 70-100 km/hr before easing, 20-25 mm rainfalls possible, and highs near 11 C. Spot flooding seems likely especially south and east inland counties.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, somewhat cooler in southeast winds backing to easterly, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Some light rain at times near south coast, showers further north although generally not very heavy, in a somewhat cooler easterly wind of 30-50 km/hr. Lows 2-5 C with slight frosts inland north and west, highs 7-9 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models seem to be pointing to a quiet almost slack pressure pattern for several days next week, which could promote some dense fog or lingering frost in a few places, but temperatures close to average if perhaps slightly on the colder side. One model then goes on to show colder air seeping in from the east near the end of the month.

See yesterday's forecast for the general themes for Britain and North America, my local weather on Monday was sunny with a slight frost in the morning and an afternoon high near 9 C. Similar weather is expected most of the week here, but it's closer to -10 C on the far side of the Rockies over fresh snow. Very little new snow has fallen yet on the coastal mountains, today's clearing revealed no sign of it yet on nearby peaks.

Thursday, 13 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for heavy rainfalls and possible flood risks, developing in two stages, 20-30 mm rain today and a further 20-30 mm possible tonight. The greatest flood risk appears to be for the inland southeast and Leinster mainly west of Dublin, extending later into eastern Connacht and central Ulster.


TODAY will be mild and windy with intervals of heavy rain, possibly thundery in Leinster, giving 20-30 mm as it moves slowly east. There will be a partial clearance for Munster and western Connacht with just isolated but locally heavy showers. Highs near 12 C and winds SSE 50-80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... heavy rainfall will return from a second wave moving in from the south, affecting mostly the eastern half of the country. This will also give about 20-30 mm rainfalls and by this time the cumulative effects will make flooding both widespread and possibly severe in places. Watch for updates. Temperatures will stay near 8-10 C and western regions, while not as wet, will have 5-10 mm further rain and some dense fog may develop in places.

FRIDAY ... The heaviest rain will move out of Ulster during the morning, but with a clearing trend, some heavy thundery showers could then develop in moderate south to southeast winds. Highs near 11 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mm. Some flooding may be slow to abate despite the improvement in the weather.

SATURDAY ... Colder with passing showers, heavier near south coast and inland to central counties. Winds backing to east, lows 4-7 C and highs 8-10C.

SUNDAY ... Rather cold again with east to northeast winds, passing showers but some longer dry intervals, lows 2-6 C and highs 7-9 C. Some morning frost inland northwest.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, cold. Some isolated showers, lows 0-3 C and highs about 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Winds becoming southeast again, more rain likely, temperatures briefly near 10 C, then a rather brisk westerly flow with relatively cool highs in the 6-8 C range.

Cold air continues to spread east in North America and highs today will only reach 5 C on the east coast, -2 C in the Great Lakes and -10 C in the northern plains and Rockies. My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and cool with a high near 8 C.

Will post forecast updates around 1700h with the latest details on the second wave of rainfall expected tonight.

LATE UPDATE _ 10 p.m. Thursday 13 November 2014
_________________________________

Sorry this is a bit late but all weather sites seem to be slowing to a crawl and my mouse picked up a hint that it should do the same.

Although there is some westward drift in the model guidance for the final outcome of tonight's heavy rainfall event, it still appears to be a case of central and eastern counties seeing more than western counties with the track of the developing frontal wave likely to be central Waterford to Sligo. The heaviest rain will follow that general path although a secondary maximum is likely to develop near the southern flanks of the Wicklow Mountains and up the eastern side of the Wicklow-Dublin higher terrain. Expect a brief period of gusty east to southeast winds in some parts of the southeast. Winds to the west of the track of this feature will tend to go calm for a while in moderate rain.

Some final estimates for rainfall amounts overnight:

20-30 mm in general most counties, but 30-40 locally Waterford, Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois, Kildare, south Wicklow and north Wexford. 10-20 mm Kerry and southwest Clare, also some parts of east Ulster.

A few local 40-50 mm totals are possible over southeast-facing higher terrain and rivers or streams draining those areas could experience severe flooding by early morning hours.

The feature will tend to weaken gradually moving through north-central regions where totals will probably be closer to 20 mm than 30 mm, and this may limit further flooding to nuisance more than severe in Connacht and west-central Ulster.

Will keep watching and updating as required.

Friday, 14 November, 2014

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Remnant light showers will soon move out of the north, and many regions will enjoy a dry start with a few brief sunny intervals. Some heavy showers may push some distance inland from the south coast and could set off a thunderstorm around Cork or Waterford and there would be potential for 10-15 mm rainfall locally. However, for most places, further rainfalls will be slight. Moderate southerly winds developing. Very mild with highs near 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Further showers may become more widespread later in the night as winds back slowly to southeast, rain likely heavier in Munster than elsewhere, 5-15 mm there. Lows 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Slightly colder with winds backing more towards easterly, passing showers or periods of light rain mostly near south and southeast coasts, 5-10 mm on average there, but a few sunny intervals further north and west. Highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers in northeast winds that will back further into a northerly direction, while remaining rather light. Lows 2-5 C and highs about 9 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will be fairly bland days with scattered showers or outbreaks of light rain and generally light and variable winds picking up towards the end of the day on Tuesday from the southeast. Highs both days around 8 or 9 C, morning lows 2-5 C with slight risk of frost in a few north central inland areas.

WEDNESDAY will see a return to wet and windy conditions, at this point it appears moderate with 15-20 mm rainfalls and highs near 10 C, wind gusts to about 90 km/hr with a shift from southeast to westerly.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is becoming rather uncertain, the European model shows a deep low tracking across the south on Friday 21st and other guidance remains in a less active but unsettled westerly frame. We'll have to wait and see if the European model continues to develop this major storm (which could bring very strong winds to the southeast and to much of Britain) or if it fades out of forecasts later.

My local weather on Thursday remained clear and cold, the high was about 7 C and the nights are getting a bit colder as we move through this spell, -2 C outside at midnight.