NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

I guessed the spreads this week before checking, was close enough in a lot of cases but based on what I thought and even bearing in mind that I was plain wrong on some, I think I’ll be backing Jacksonville, Kansas, and Atlanta plus the points. I don’t really like any favs. I’d also back Chicago if they move to +7.5 but I don’t think they will.

I am not gone on the Saints;
out of their dome, up north
laying that many points
change of timezone

skippymac6 wrote: »

I think the Bengals might have too much for the Falcons actually. They registered three sacks against the Ravens and constantly had Flacco fleeing for his life. The Falcons offensive line did a more than admirable job last week against the Saints but I think they'll be in for a rude awakening this week.

That and the Packers -8 are my main two bets. Geno Smith looked good but I'm hoping for a bounce back to form for the Green Bay offence and I think the defence (without being brilliant, which they are not) will do enough to stifle Geno.

The big things in the Packers/Jets game is the two lines. Green Bay's offensive line looked awful last week. The Jets DL looked poor too. I think this is a game where in-running betting is the way to go. You will know who is winning that battle very early and then go back the other team.

Had a small bet on Steelers to win by 1-6 points at 4/1. Think it'll be a tight affair again as with all these divisional games.

Threw a fiver on rams,jags,falcons to win at 33/1. Worth a punt I reckon

Line moves today (think this is usually sharp money)...

Big move on Vikings, so think I got that right, down from +5.5/6 down to nearly +3 now.

Giants +1.5 down to -2
Browns from +6.5 down to +5.5
Chargers from +5.5 to +4.5
Rams +6, down to +4.5
Jets from +7.5 to +7

Bit of money on Texans and Titans both pushing towards -3.5 (was -3).

Getting a push on a 7-point Packers win looks like value to me, even if it's the sharps on the other side.

Billy86 wrote: »

Unbelievable. I made two last minute, impulsive bets.

€10 on Steven Jackson to run over 42.5 yards,
Richardson to run under 40.5 yards (tomorrow) and Jamaal Charles to run over 73.5 yards. Jackson did his end, but Charles went off injured early so lost that one. 5.1/1 odds.

€5 on Rams to win, Newton to throw over 222.5 yards and the Chiefs +12.5 with under 52.5 in the game. Broncos made a goal line stand to secure the win and that bet winning by only 7, Newton went around 290 and the Rams won on a last minute FG. 15.6/1, €83 return.

Onky noticed now that I forgot to hit the final 'submit' button on the winner! :mad:

Fecking raging, at least the comeback at the Jets helps a little. Feel a right tit about now.

Absolutely sick when that happens. At least the Pack won, if they hadn't then you'd be fit to cry!

Had two accums go down and had a saver of three anytime TD's on which landed when Nelson obliged. Was waiting on Andre Johnson for another treble and I was so close to picking Hopkins instead with Cobb and Harvin.

On the 49ers -6.5 at 5/6 in the late game. Bears will have to improve big time from last weekend whilst the 49ers are in their new home so I'm hoping they'll have a little extra in them tonight.

matthew8 wrote: »

Bills to win 1.88, Jags +6 1.92, SF -7 2.0, Panthers to win 1.74 1 unit each.

Load of bottlers. Looked sure to beat the handicap and lost outright.

Loss: -.19 units.

Of the early lines I like the look of Saints -9.5 vs. Vikings and Panthers -3.5 vs. Steelers (prob just back Panthers to win though for 3rd week running).

Bateman wrote: »

2 record weeks in Vegas – they were drowning in cash. 7 has been the key number in 2 games – Denver -7.5 hugely supported against the Colts and win by 7, Green Bay -7.5 well backed and win by 7. Lessons to be learned chaps.

Clients of tipsters, who often oppose precisely these types of favs, will be doing well.

Yeah this week especially would have been carnage for the punters. Even fancied underdogs like the Jags got hammered and given Luck had never lost back to back ATS then those looking for a saver from last night's game would've got done too.

Bateman wrote: »

I am doing the lines each week before checking them now. Needless to say when you're out, chances are it's you and not Vegas that is wrong but a worthwhile excercise all the same. I think Green Bay should be favs and I think the Giants (shoot me!) should be favs. I certainly didn't have the Pats giving up as many points as they are.
.

The whole Vegas thing is overblown. Plenty of the Europeans are now getting their lines up before Vegas. Vegas these days is really only copying the moves by Pinnacle and other such firms which are basically Asians at this stage. The true pricing of games are coming moreso from Asia these days, similar to soccer, and its only a matter of time before the opinion in Vegas becomes defunct altogether. You should obviously always try price the games yourself, but don't be put off when theyre different to some bookies. For instance Bwin priced up week 2 before week 1 was played and made an absolute cock up on some games, 3-4 points out on the handicap in some cases. I endured a thoroughly frustrating couple of days trying to find a way to back them but was unable. Generally the best time to place bets is early in the week when the lines are out, and just before kickoff when the influx of mug money has had its effect

The line I'm really liking so far is the Carolina -3. Being at home that line suggests that he Steelers and Panthers are equal but I'd have the Panthers ahead of them by at least a few points. They've a strong defence and Cam was only just back from injury last week so he should come on for that game too. The Ravens showed that if you shut down Antonio Brown you limit the Steelers through the air in a big way.

1 unit each. Falcons -6.5 1.99, Cowboys +1 1.96, Saints -10.5 2.05, Panthers to win 1.56.