Galway West General Election

galwayrush · 12-01-2011 12:24am

PomBear wrote: »

but the bypass is far from what is in the national interest to get this country back on track, I think we need our TDs to have their minds on national interest and not what's good for their constituency.

I don't think so, it will relieve one hell of a traffic mess and get quite a few people back to work in it's construction, that to me is in the national interest.

Sponge Bob · 12-01-2011 12:33am

PomBear wrote: »

but the bypass is far from what is in the national interest to get this country back on track

It is one of the most significant missing links in the National Primary Road Network and therefore in the National Interest. Not as important as a Galway Dublin motorway but important now that is complete.

Then the Greens and Connolly can build their light metros, cycle lanes and and buslanes inside the city like they want to.

We must to be able to export our way out of trouble, Galway exports the best part of €10m a day worth of medical devices alone and they were not ferried out of the country by the tooth fairy last time I looked

PomBear · 12-01-2011 12:34am

galwayrush wrote: »

I don't think so, it will relieve one hell of a traffic mess and get quite a few people back to work in it's construction, that to me is in the national interest.

well we'll see what happens in the next government, every TD is looking to do something for their constituency and not focused on the national, we'll see how far we get.

Sponge Bob · 12-01-2011 1:12am

PomBear wrote: »

every TD is looking to do something for their constituency and not focused on the national, we'll see how far we get.

They have nothing else to do on the backbenches...government backbenches or otherwise. That is where Nolan and Connolly are headed if they get elected. Same with all these fresh new FG faces we may sent up from Galway at the general election.

We don't actualy need any more housing in Galway....not that we can have any in the city with Mutton Island now maxed out and yet Connolly constantly calls for us to build more social housing despite knowing Mutton Island is maxed out

Connollys all social housing good mantra is wearing thin, we need to make better use of what we already have including bringing empty homes into use by taxing empty houses a lot more than we do right now.

The Bypass would cost the same as buying land for and then building around 5000-7000 social homes and that in a City that already has around 3000 homes lying empty most of the time...except that we also need to spent a few squids upgrading Mutton Island before we build anything new. The number of genuine applicants on the housing waiting list is less than the number of empty homes.

Sadly Catherine is is also unaware of the difference between live sh1te and dead sh1te ....it is technically called "deactivated "sludge Catherine and is rather like compost in fact.

She cannot have it both ways and to mind electing an economic and numeric illiterate is a bad idea although she would probably make a great minister of finance by our standards

Michael D may be many strange things but a numeric illiterate he is not.

It will be no surprise to me if she outright ignores the national interest and concentrates on parish pump politics on the west side, as ever. What are we voting for again ??

That much needing saying and said, sooner her than Fahey and Crowe any day....but don't get your hopes up. :cool:

johngalway · 12-01-2011 11:58am

FG 1,2,3,4 for me, just deciding on the order TBH. McCormack would have been first choice but he's retired now.

After that I'm not so sure.

I won't be voting for FF, SF, Grealish, Connolly, or NoB. Not sure about Nolan, who else is left :pac:

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The Bypass is a vital issue, the lack of it strangles not only Galway City but all of West Galway. Nobody anywhere in the City and Connemara can say they are not affected by this mess.

I live in Connemara, takes me over an hour just to get to the city. If I'm traveling farther a field, do I want to be caught up in rush hour? No, I want the option to avoid the city.

No more when I posted that NUIG needs more parking, there are always people with heads buried in the sand, and worse places.

c_man · 12-01-2011 12:52pm

Well definitely won't be giving a preference to Niall O'B, any FFers or Grealish.

In terms of results, I think we can all agree that O'Cuiv will walk it. I see Grealish getting in next, two for FG and Catherine Connolly to take Michael D's seat. D. Nolan just isn't known well enough and will be losing all those personal preferences that his predecessor used to gather.

kraggy · 12-01-2011 1:27pm

Won't be voting FF or FG.

The only experience the FGers have is shouting through the advertiser or participating in other meaningless drivel.

This country has had enough of endless rhetoric and little action.

It's actually depressing looking at the list of candidates in our constituency.

Mollie Breathna · 12-01-2011 3:35pm

kraggy wrote: »

It's actually depressing looking at the list of candidates in our constituency.

+1

yeehaw · 12-01-2011 5:21pm

I am predicting that the 5 seats will be filled as follows, and in this order.

1. Eamon O Cuiv
2. Brian Walsh
3. Noel Grealish
4. Healy Eames
5. Frank Fahey

seanin4711 · 12-01-2011 5:32pm

yeehaw wrote: »

I am predicting that the 5 seats will be filled as follows, and in this order.

1. Eamon O Cuiv
2. Brian Walsh
3. Noel Grealish
4. Healy Eames
5. Frank Fahey

If that yoke gets elected it is a sad reflection on the people of galway.
I question the mentality of anyone voting for fianna FAIL.

Robbo · 12-01-2011 5:44pm

Any word on Amhran Nua fielding a candidate in Galway West? I gather that a couple of their more active members are from this part of the world.

eagle10 · 12-01-2011 6:22pm

My main concern is that Fahey loses his seat, tbh don't care for any of the rest of them but despise Fahey.

What would be the best vote stragically to keep Fahey out?

Sponge Bob · 12-01-2011 6:32pm

yeehaw wrote: »

I am predicting that the 5 seats will be filled as follows, and in this order.

Dont be so silly, there was a left wing quota at the top of the boom and you are predicting no left winger will get in at all

One of Connolly or Nolan will be elected.

And is Cubbard left wing ye may well ask :cool: , or soft left ??

http://mikecubbard.com/

http://www.galwayindependent.com/local-news/local-news/independent-candidate-to-contest-election/

But he supports the bypass and will therefore get a better preference than connolly or nolan ever will from me

As well as that he is Honest!

I firmly believe all politics is local.

dilallio · 13-01-2011 1:24am

http://www.advertiser.ie/galway/article/35125

John Mulholland has opened a book on candidates’ chances in the upcoming General Election, with Minister Éamon Ó Cuív the odds-on favourite to retain his seat in the poll.
The bookmaker, operated by former Fine Gael city councillor John Mulholland, has already seen a flurry of bets on who will win the five seats in the Galway West constituency. John Mulholland Bookmakers is offering odds of 1/16 for Minister Ó Cuív to be re-elected, with Dep Noel Grealish second favourite at 1/10 to secure a seat in Galway West. Cllr Brian Walsh (Fine Gael) is third favourite at 1/5.
Fine Gael’s Senator Fidelma Healy Eames is also tipped to be elected in the upcoming poll, with odds of 2/7 in favour of her making it third time lucky as a Dáil candidate.
Dep Frank Fahey has already said he is unlikely to retain his seat, and the opinion polls certainly reflect his pessimism. However according to Mulholland the question must be asked, would he run if he did not think he had a chance? Could his strong Menlo following and transfers from Cllr Michael Crowe get him over the line? The bookmaker has priced Dep Fahey up as a 3/1 shot to be returned to Dáil Éireann. According to Mulholland the fifth and final seat is likely to be a dogfight between the locally popular Independent candidate Cllr Catherine Connolly (8/13), Labour’s Cllr Derek Nolan (evens) and the two city based Fianna Fail candidates Dep Fahy and Cllr Crowe (5/2).

The full betting on who will win a seat in Galway West is as follows:
Ó Cuív 1/16
Grealish 1/10
B Walsh 1/5
Healy Eames 2/7
Connolly 8/13
Nolan Evens
Crowe 5/2
Fahey 3/1
Naughton 6/1
Kyne 6/1
E Walsh 20/1
O Brolchain 25/1

PomBear · 13-01-2011 1:46am

dilallio wrote: »

http://www.advertiser.ie/galway/article/35125

who's E Walsh?

dilallio · 13-01-2011 2:11am

PomBear wrote: »

who's E Walsh?

Eamon Walsh is running as an Independent and is chairperson of the group which lobbies against cuts in health, I could be wrong but I think it was formed around the time the HSE annonunced major cuts to organisations such as the Brothers of Charity and others.

http://hope4disability.com/Hope4Disability/Who_are_we.html

Found this also: http://www.eamonwalsh.ie/Eamon_Walsh/Welcome.html

PomBear · 13-01-2011 2:14am

dilallio wrote: »

Eamon Walsh is running as an Independent and is chairperson of the group which lobbies against cuts in health, I could be wrong but I think it was formed around the time the HSE annonunced major cuts to organisations such as the Brothers of Charity and others.

http://hope4disability.com/Hope4Disability/Who_are_we.html

Found this also: http://www.eamonwalsh.ie/Eamon_Walsh/Welcome.html

I know him now, actually spoke at a march with him!

snubbleste · 13-01-2011 11:41am

Ó Brolcháin whining on the front page of the Advertiser today.
Hello like! nobody wanted you the last time, you were actually voted out of office yet here you are voicing off in the Seanad.

Meantime FF Crowe hates postal liberalisation in addition to trees.

padraig71 · 13-01-2011 12:36pm

Not Tweedledum FF or Tweedledee FG because I cannot see much difference between them except for their historical origins (and anyone who votes on tribal civil-war allegiance rather than policy is part of our national problem).

Not SF because of their dubious connections.

So Green or Labour, and whatever Independents have decent policies. Catherine Connolly sounds like a possibility.

yeehaw · 13-01-2011 1:31pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Dont be so silly, there was a left wing quota at the top of the boom and you are predicting no left winger will get in at all

One of Connolly or Nolan will be elected.

And is Cubbard left wing ye may well ask :cool: , or soft left ??

http://mikecubbard.com/

http://www.galwayindependent.com/local-news/local-news/independent-candidate-to-contest-election/

But he supports the bypass and will therefore get a better preference than connolly or nolan ever will from me As well as that he is Honest!

I knew that the expert would be along to tell that I was wrong.

I think the first 4 I have listed are absolute certainties to be elected.

As regards the less predictable 5th seat-

Catherine Connolly is, to my mind, an anti everything pinko. She will inevitably be popular with some (including a good many of the posters on this board). I think that she will probably do well on first preferences, but she won't get the transfers necessary to be elected.

Michael D not running is a big blow for Labour. I would be of the view that much of his vote was a personal vote. Derek Nolan has not been a councillor for long and enjoys nothing like the public profile of his illustrious predecessor. I see him as the Ó Brolcháin of this campaign- highly touted and in some quarters expected to win a seat, but he will bomb out. Good luck to Michael D in the Áras. A fine representative of Galway.

I think that the fifth seat will boil down to a straight scrap between Frank Fahy and Mike Crowe. Fahy is an experienced campaigner, and, whatever your personal view of the man, he has shown himself to be extremely astute politically. He has been around for a long time and I fully expect him to put in a better showing than many expect. Better the devil you know...

Sponge Bob · 13-01-2011 1:58pm

yeehaw wrote: »

I knew that the expert would be along to tell that I was wrong.

I still reckon that between the Greens, Connolly and Nolan there is a pretty solid pinko quota out there. Furthermore they are mainly a city vote and that tends to transfer to other city folks if it crosses party lines and not to candidates out the country. Meaning not Fahey.

O Brolcháin, Michael D and Connolly picked up 11,000 first prefs between them in 2007 while the Shinners got another 1,600 . The quota was 9200.

The trend is arguably left since 2007 so would you humour me and recalculate the 5 seats again with one for the pink people

yeehaw · 13-01-2011 3:33pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I still reckon that between the Greens, Connolly and Nolan there is a pretty solid pinko quota out there. Furthermore they are mainly a city vote and that tends to transfer to other city folks if it crosses party lines and not to candidates out the country. Meaning not Fahey.

O Brolcháin, Michael D and Connolly picked up 11,000 first prefs between them in 2007 while the Shinners got another 1,600 . The quota was 9200.

The trend is arguably left since 2007 so would you humour me and recalculate the 5 seats again with one for the pink people

I'll come back to this thread after the election.

dilallio · 13-01-2011 4:38pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I still reckon that between the Greens, Connolly and Nolan there is a pretty solid pinko quota out there. Furthermore they are mainly a city vote and that tends to transfer to other city folks if it crosses party lines and not to candidates out the country. Meaning not Fahey.

O Brolcháin, Michael D and Connolly picked up 11,000 first prefs between them in 2007 while the Shinners got another 1,600 . The quota was 9200.

The trend is arguably left since 2007 so would you humour me and recalculate the 5 seats again with one for the pink people

It all depends on what happens to the 6000 first pref votes which Michael D got last time out.

No disrespect intended towards Derek Nolan, but he is unlikely to get anyway near 6000 first pref votes, and a lot of the 'pinko' votes will be distributed across a number of candidates.

As people get eliminated, I cannot see all of the 'left' candidates' surpluses going to other 'left' candidates.

I think that FG & FF are better at ensuring that transfers go to other candidates in the same party.

It will be a very interesting count, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a number of recounts during the latter stages.

PomBear · 14-01-2011 1:16am

Ó Clochartaigh seeks Sinn Féin nomination in Galway West

Trevor Ó Clochartaigh has announced that he will be seeking the Sinn
Féin nomination to stand for the party in Galway West. Ó
Clochartaigh is stepping down as Project Manager of Gaelscéal, the
...national Irish language newspaper, to focus fulltime on the election
and political life.

Robbo · 14-01-2011 10:51am

PomBear wrote: »

Ó Clochartaigh seeks Sinn Féin nomination in Galway West

Trevor Ó Clochartaigh has announced that he will be seeking the Sinn
Féin nomination to stand for the party in Galway West. Ó
Clochartaigh is stepping down as Project Manager of Gaelscéal, the
...national Irish language newspaper, to focus fulltime on the election
and political life.

Not very high profile, is he? I had to Google the chap and he's twice failed in the local elections.

I would have thought they could have seen the opportunity to legitimately target the constituency as one where upheaval was on the cards.

Sponge Bob · 14-01-2011 10:59am

He would pick up next to no votes in the town. SF will need to run another candidate in there if they are to have any hope of being in the running.

All he _could_ really do is stop O Cuiv getting elected in the first 4 counts or so. He would transfer rather a lot to Connolly when he did eventually go out unless SF had a town candidate with more votes than he. I would guesstimate he could go as high as 2,000-3,000 votes if selected on his own.

SF, IMO, will not make the magic 4000 or so votes that will put every remaining candidate 'in the mix' from the fourth or fifth count onwards....and therefore relying on the precise sequence of eliminations as much as anything else.

dilallio · 14-01-2011 11:18am

Today's Indo has an article about Galway West.

CATHERINE Connolly is the ex-Labour Party stalwart who could scupper its bid to hold its highest-profile Dail seat outside Dublin.
She was supposed to be the designated successor to veteran Labour TD Michael D Higgins, who is now quitting the Dail to run in the presidential election.
But she quit the party after failing to be put on the ticket alongside Mr Higgins in the last general election -- and has never been invited back.
"I was very much part of the Labour Party when I was there but since 2006 I've been independent," she said.
The heart of the constituency is in Galway city but it also includes the whole of Connemara, the Aran Islands, and growing commuter towns like Claregalway and Headford.
At the time, Ms Connolly felt it was "crazy" that the party did not want to go for two Labour seats in Galway West.
"But Michael D and the group with him felt that there were just enough votes for his seat and no more. I believe they were too fearful and too careful and lost out on a great opportunity," she said.
Although Ms Connolly was Mr Higgins' director of elections at the 2002 General Election, she said their paths had not crossed since. Her focus now is on the public health system, which included a recent personal visit to inspect the wards closed in University College Hospital, Galway due to Budget cutbacks.
"We have 140 beds empty in the hospital while there's 120 people on trolleys. I think it's obscene because a public health service based on need is possible in all civilised countries," she said.
Ms Connolly stood against Mr Higgins in the last General Election, picking up 2,000 first-preference votes as an independent. Political pundits in the West are backing her to more than double that figure this time around.
Renowned Connemara vote-catcher, independent councillor Seosamh O Cuaig is also throwing his weight behind her.
Labour are pinning their hopes on Derek Nolan, a trainee solicitor elected to the city council for the first time in 2009. Although he has a low profile outside Galway city, Mr Higgins has been unstinting in his support for him.
"He is a very able candidate and the choice of the Labour party constituency council. With his background in law, I see him as a Labour Party spokesman in the next Dail," he said.
Fianna Fail was expected to suffer the last time out after a water-contamination crisis left Galway city without tap water for three months. But the party still managed to hold on to its two seats through minister Eamon O Cuiv and Frank Fahey.
One rival said it would take a "nuclear explosion" for Mr O'Cuiv to lose his seat.
But Mr Fahey will have to beware of the predicted anti-Government backlash.

Bypass
He is again campaigning on the basis that he will deliver the long-awaited Galway outer-city bypass to relieve traffic congestion in the city.
But his chances of being in Government are remote. He will be backed up by Fianna Fail's third candidate Michael Crowe.
Galway West is very much a constituency in flux with the retirements of Mr Higgins and also veteran Fine Gael TD Padraic McCormack.
Fine Gael has gone for a four-candidate strategy (up from three) in a bid to win two seats.
Oranmore-based senator Fidelma Healy-Eames says voters are angry with the Government and want "accountability and integrity" instead.
Cllr Brian Walsh has a business background and is based in the East Ward of Galway city.
Cllr Hildegarde Naughton is a classically trained singer and primary school teacher. And Cllr Sean Kyne is a sweeper candidate in the Gaeltacht.
Former PD TD Noel Grealish broke away from the Government in September last year in a row over health cuts -- and it remains to be seen how that will play with voters.
He is expected to get a strong vote around his Claregalway base and cannot be ruled out due to his work rate.
Green Party senator Niall O Brolchain is hoping to garner votes from his Salthill-Knocknacarra base, which has around 14,000 of the constituency's votes. He is asking voters to pay €10 to "sponsor a poster".
But he is very much an outside shot given his party's current opinion-poll unpopularity.
The youngest candidate in the race is independent Mike Cubbard (25), an insurance worker and sports coach.
Constituency profile

Galway West
- Number of seats: 5
- Electorate: 87,197
- Voters per TD: 17,439
Potential candidates
FIANA FAIL
Eamon O Cuiv TD
Frank Fahey TD
Cllr Michael Crowe
FINE GAEL
Cllr Brian Walsh
Senator Fidelma Healy-Eames
Cllr Sean Kyne
Cllr Hildegarde Naughton
LABOUR
Cllr Derek Nolan
SINN FEIN
To be confirmed
GREEN PARTY
Senator Niall O Brolchain
INDEPENDENTS
Noel Grealish TD
Cllr Catherine Connolly
Mike Cubbard
Last time
- Fianna Fail Minister Eamon O Cuiv topped the poll with 9,645 votes.
- Fine Gael’s Padraic McCormack postponed his retirement and held on to his seat, alongside Labour veteran Michael D Higgins and then PD TD Noel Grealish.
- Fianna Fail’s Frank Fahey also held on, despite predictions that Green Party Cllr Niall O Brolchain would make a breakthrough.
- Brian McDonald and Michael Brennan

nuac · 14-01-2011 11:32am

Robbo - when speaking of SF candidates pls do not use the word "target" - brings back unpleasant memories.

ilovesleep · 14-01-2011 10:58pm

O'Cuiv wants to take over from Brian Clown. This is not good news if it happens.

PomBear · 15-01-2011 12:09am

Robbo wrote: »

Not very high profile, is he? I had to Google the chap and he's twice failed in the local elections.

I would have thought they could have seen the opportunity to legitimately target the constituency as one where upheaval was on the cards.

Since then he's been running Gaelsceal, a national Irish Language paper, given free with the indo and has gotten big respect for it.

Also, i'd imagine he'll do well with disillusioned FFers in conemara, very few off the candidates are based in conemara like him also

Galway West General Election

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