Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Friday, 27 March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some light rain over parts of Munster will die out gradually while other regions remain largely dry if cloudy until later in the day, when a more organized band of rain will develop and move across western counties towards the northeast. Highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming heavy at times, 15-25 mm in total by morning, with temperatures steady or slowly rising in the range of 8-10 C. Hill fog will be widespread.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain continuing to push northeast, followed by variable cloud and rather warm, muggy conditions with highs 13-15 C south, but not as warm in most of Ulster and nearby parts of Connacht and Leinster with highs about 11-12 C. Winds from southwest at 70-90 km/hr with some higher gusts will ease slightly by afternoon.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain and gusty winds, then variable cloud, showers, temperatures steady in the range of 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, mild, occasional rain and strong, gusty southwest winds with temperatures peaking about 15-16 C in the south, 11-12 C north. About 10 mm rain expected.

TUESDAY ... Breezy but not quite as mild with highs around 13 C south and 10 or 11 C north, mostly cloudy with a few showers or periods of light rain.

OUTLOOK ... Variable cloud much of the time mid-week with temperatures near 12 C, another interval of rain likely around Thursday then possibly more settled and turning somewhat cooler for the Easter weekend, details are really not that definite yet with different models showing rather different outcomes, but I have some hope that it may turn out fairly pleasant. The very long term outlook is for somewhat cooler than average temperatures persisting beyond Easter into the middle of the month.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy but very warm, in fact records were set for the date with a high of 19 C. This warmer air will be heading east to cover the plains states and prairies for much of the weekend but it will lose most of its vigour when it reaches the east coast by early next week. Some early April snowfall events are indicated for New England and the lower Great Lakes regions on the long-range charts.

Sunday, 29 March, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Early morning rain and gusty winds (WSW 60-90 km/hr), then variable cloud, showers, temperatures in the south will remain steady in the range of 10 to 13 C while further north around 6 to 8 C for the morning and 8-10 C by afternoon. Rainfall may be somewhat sporadic with 3-7 mm the expected range.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy with some light rain at times, temperatures steady in the south at about 9-10 C, rising to similar values in the north. Winds WSW 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts developing near Atlantic coasts.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, mild, occasional rain and very strong, gusty southwest winds (70-110 km/hr north, 60-90 km/hr south) with temperatures peaking about 14-15 C in the south, 11-12 C north. About 10 mm rain expected.

TUESDAY ... Breezy but not quite as mild with highs around 13 C south and 10 or 11 C north, mostly cloudy with a few showers or periods of light rain.

WEDNESDAY ... A few sunny intervals, mild, rain developing again later in the day, not as windy. Highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, 10-15 mm likely, possible thunderstorms and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Good Friday will see clearing skies and rather cool temperatures in gusty northwest winds, highs 8-10 C. Easter Saturday and Sunday seem likely to bring more sunshine than cloud with highs also around 9 or 10 C, and slight frosts possible in a few locations.

My local weather on Saturday turned out not too bad, after some morning drizzle, most of the day was dry although cloudy with a high near 13 C, then more rain set in by late afternoon.

UPDATE _ Monday 30 March, 2015 _ 4:30 p.m.
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls next 3-4 hours across north Leinster and southeast Ulster, some local flooding likely to develop on roads during the peak of the afternoon commute period around north Dublin, Meath. Peak wind gusts 90-110 km/hr are likely to develop around 6-9 p.m. on west coast and spread further east late evening to around midnight. The rather mild air mass over the south will remain in place until just around midnight then it will begin to turn considerably colder.

Wednesday, 1st of April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Becoming mostly cloudy as is already the case in western counties, with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain (3-5 mm on average). Not as windy as recent days, moderate westerlies at about 40-70 km/hr. Cool with highs struggling to reach 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of light rain, becoming more persistent in Connacht and Ulster, lows 3-6 C and about 5-10 mm rain for most, smaller amounts in southeast.

THURSDAY ... Occasional rain, becoming rather windy late in the day (as light southwesterlies increase to WNW 50-80 km/hr). Highs 10-13 C milder in south Leinster and east Munster.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Windy with rain at times in morning, slight clearing trend by afternoon, as winds veer from WNW 50-80 km/hr to NNW 40-70 km/hr, morning lows 4-6 C and rather cold afternoon highs 7-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny intervals becoming more frequent in a moderate northerly breeze with occasional gusts to 50 km/hr, rather cool with morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 9-11 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, a little milder after some slight frosts in central counties (lows -2 to +3 C) and highs 11-14 C. Slight risk of an outbreak of drizzle or mist near northwest coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Next week is looking pleasant with high pressure over Scotland promoting a dry southeast flow with light winds and calm conditions at night. Slight frosts are likely to be widespread and one or two places could see lows in the -3 C range, but days will feel reasonably warm with the sunshine, highs about 13 to 15 C.

See yesterday's comments for BRITAIN and NORTH AMERICA which remain valid ... my local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and not overly warm with the high about 11 C.

Thursday, 2 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Outbreaks of light rain mainly to the north of a nearly stationary front that cuts diagonally across the country from Galway to Wexford. Highs 11-14 C in Munster to the south of this front, but only 7-10 C in most other regions to the north in part due to light east winds coming off the Irish Sea. Fog will be rather persistent on higher terrain except in west Munster. Rainfalls of 3-7 mm likely in the wetter counties from about Mayo to central Leinster. Becoming rather breezy this afternoon in western counties with southwest winds 40-70 km/hr veering westerly by evening.

TONIGHT ... Windy at times, showers or periods of rain, 5-10 mm rain and lows about 4-6 C. Winds westerly veering to northwesterly 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts near west coast.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Morning showers or periods of light rain in parts of Leinster, gradual clearing elsewhere by mid-day, and that should eventually spread into Leinster as well, but all regions rather cool in moderately strong northwest to north winds 50-70 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Some morning cloud but a fair amount of sunshine likely to develop, lows 1-3 C and highs 9-11 C. Slight risk of patchy drizzle near northwest and north coast.

EASTER SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly sunny, a little warmer during the day after a patchy frost (lows -2 to +3 C), highs about 12-14 C in light winds.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, lows -1 to +4 C and highs 13-15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued fair and somewhat milder as a slight increase in southeast winds mixes the air at night, lows 2-5 C and highs 13-16 C until near end of the week when more cloud likely, to be followed by slowly advancing light rain from a weak front edging eastward from the Atlantic (this around the following weekend, 11 to 12 April).

If your plans take you across to Britain on Good Friday, the slowly departing rain and gusty winds will not clear southeast England until well into the early morning hours of Saturday. Otherwise the scenario for most parts of Britain should be similar to the above, and the weather will be unusually clear and dry in Scotland for much of next week.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly sunny with a strong westerly breeze and it felt quite cool in the wind despite a high of about 12 C.

Astronomy note: There will be a total eclipse of the Moon early Saturday visible from North America but long after the moon has set in Ireland (around 12z which is 0500h in my part of the world, if skies are clear I might get a view of the setting eclipsed moon just before sunrise on Saturday). Further east in North America you might see the early stages of the total eclipse before the moon sets and the sun rises on Saturday morning. A better timed evening view will be available in eastern Asia and Australia. Totality will be relatively short as the moon just barely gets into the umbra at mid-eclipse.

Wednesday, 8 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and warm, but slight risk of a shower in parts of Connacht. Some coastal areas could be foggy at times. Highs for most locations 15-18 C, light southerly breezes.

TONIGHT ... Clear except for some extensive high cloud, lows 3-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, warm, isolated showers may develop inland west and coastal fog may be dense at times especially along south coast. Highs 15-18 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, more extensive coastal fog, isolated showers, morning lows 4-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, colder, scattered showers more frequent in north and west, lows 2-4 C and highs 7-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Periods of rain likely, rather chilly compared to this week, lows about 4 C and highs about 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday continuing rather cool but with a clearing trend, then somewhat warmer again by mid-week. Highs back into mid teens by then.

BRITAIN will see generally similar conditions, meanwhile across the central United States a fairly significant severe weather outbreak is developing, and could peak with tornadic storms by about Thursday.

I enjoyed some warm sunshine on my Easter holiday (further south where it was about 24 C), still sunny back home on Tuesday and about 14 C.

Friday, 10 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A few light showers in the southeast this morning should die out within a few hours, otherwise increasing high cloud will dim the sunshine but it will remain warm today at 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain will move steadily eastward giving 5-10 mm falls in most places, perhaps less in the southeast, then it will turn colder with temperatures about 10 C in the rain and 2-5 C by morning except in parts of the southeast which will remain 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Just a few lingering showers mainly in the north and northwest, where some could be wintry on higher slopes. Occasional sunshine should return to many areas mid-day and afternoon, then overcast by evening. Highs about 8 or 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain may persist to mid-day and could bring 10 mm or higher amounts although the system is looking rather fragile on latest guidance and at some point it may begin to break apart into scattered showers, then eventually some clearing could spread into the western half of Ireland by late afternoon. Highs 7-9 C east, 10-13 C west as a result, after an overnight low near 4 or 5 C.

MONDAY ... Early morning frosts then hazy sunshine with a slight risk of showers near the Donegal bay coastlines. Lows -1 to +3 C, highs 11-14 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are likely to return to warm, hazy and partly sunny conditions with highs 14-17 C.

LATER NEXT WEEK, guidance is rather inconclusive on timing but gradually cloud will increase and eventually rain is likely to spread in, first from the west but this will be light and sporadic, then from the south by about Sunday 19th or Monday 20th, at which time this rain may turn rather heavy. However, confidence in this outcome has to be moderate at best. What does seem more certain is that temperatures will trend down around the weekend of 18th-19th.

For BRITAIN, the outlook is similar although events will run about a half day later in general, so that Sunday will likely remain unsettled all day in most regions, although some dry intervals will develop as the system weakens.

Across much of eastern and central NORTH AMERICA there will be an outbreak of severe storms again today, probably most severe in the Ohio valley. It will remain very warm to the south of this frontal system with highs 25-30 C in many areas including Augusta, GA the site of the Masters golf tournament, where there could be some delays caused by thunderstorms today. Out west the weather remains warm and dry with sunshine expected in many areas. Colder and showery weather will hit by the weekend, however. My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a high near 16 C.

Sunday, 12 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... While the south will start the day fairly mild and dry, most other regions will be cold and wet for a few more hours, but eventually this rain will move beyond the east coast by early afternoon and a partial clearance will follow from west to east. Highs will be 12-14 C in parts of the south, 11-13 C in the west, 8-11 C midlands and 7-9 C east, northeast and north. That is, unless the clearance is more pronounced in the east, in which case temperatures could recover to about 11-12 C by late afternoon. About 10-15 mm further rainfall will occur in north Leinster and east Ulster, those amounts have already fallen further west and only a slight further amount will be added before it starts to clear. Moderate southerly winds will veer more westerly in the warmer south. Meanwhile, there could be a touch of sleet or snow on hills around Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Derry and Tyrone.

TONIGHT ... Some dense fog may develop in valleys, and isolated frost could develop although lows will be rather variable due to patchy cloud cover. Lows will be in the range of -2 to +4 C.

MONDAY ... Hazy or cloudy at times, mostly dry with just a slight risk of showers or drizzle from low cloud (formerly sea fog) in the northwest. Warmer for most, highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm with morning lows 5-8 C but highs soaring to about 19 or 20 C in many places inland, 12-15 C closer to coastlines but about 18 C in most of Dublin and coastal Wicklow.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, slight risk of a shower, still quite warm. Lows 8-11 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloudiness, a few showers but some places staying dry with highs about 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, slight chance of showers but some light rain possible in coastal Kerry and southwest Cork. Highs about 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The earlier guidance showing rain moving in from the south seems to have weakened to sporadic bursts of light rain from less powerful systems drifting in from the southwest, and could in fact be replaced by just a cooler but mainly dry easterly flow . This seems to be related to a gradual mid-Atlantic ridge building up that may eventually overpower this mild regime with a blast from the northwest, but this is far from certain yet. However, we can't rule out a few rather wintry days before the month is over, so the faster pace of spring may back off for a while before May begins. For now, would suggest the outlook for next weekend is a mix of cloud and sun, isolated showers, and highs near 14 C. Nights may be fairly chilly with isolated ground frost.

For BRITAIN today, this rainfall system will glide across north Wales and north-central England but will give only small or trace amounts of rain further south where it should be relatively warm in comparison. Temperatures will be about 15 to 17 C in the south, 10 to 12 C in the rain further north and 6-9 C in much of Scotland with risk of snow on hills there. Beyond today, the pattern will be quite similar to the forecast above.

Over most of NORTH AMERICA, a warm spring pattern has developed and there are fewer thunderstorms involved now. The Masters golf should enjoy a partly cloudy and very warm day (28 C). On the west coast, colder air has moved into most regions north of central California, and my local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy and cool with morning showers that ended conveniently about 0930h. The high was about 11 C.

Tuesday, 14 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather cloudy to start, some brighter intervals developing with sunshine more likely in west Munster and parts of south Leinster. Warmth will depend on how much sunshine breaks through of course, but highs should average about 15 C and some places will reach 17-18 C (most likely in the inland portions of west Munster, possibly coastal southeast). Slight amounts of drizzle could be recorded in a few parts of the north where highs may only reach 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Continued rather cloudy with light rain developing in parts of the northwest, lows about 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain will edge south but it won't last too long in any given location, perhaps three hours or so, during which time temperatures will fall from 12-15 C to about 8-10 C then when the front passes further south, it will clear partially but remain about the same (chilly) temperature. This will occur late enough in the south coastal counties that temperatures may stay relatively mild all day, then fall in the evening. About that time, the frontal rainfall band will weaken so that amounts of 5-8 mm further north will be reduced to 2-4 mm.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, cool northeast breezes, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 10-12 C. Slight chance of isolated showers in Ulster and north Leinster.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with cloudy periods, continuing rather cool although somewhat milder in Connacht in light to moderate east winds. Morning frosts in a few inland areas, lows -1 to +3 C, then highs 11-14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continued dry, sunny at times, and a bit warmer, lows about 2-5 C and highs 13-16 C. Winds moderate east to southeast.

NEXT WEEK ... The easterly flow seems likely to continue, and may draw in somewhat moister air by mid-week, but eventually colder air from high latitudes may start mixing into a trough and drop temperatures a few degrees below normal by late in the week.

Over in BRITAIN, the pattern will be similar in Wales, north-central England and Scotland, but southern England will be warmer through Wednesday as the weak front will not arrive there until late at night or early Thursday, so that highs may reach 21-24 C in parts of south-central England by tomorrow.

In NORTH AMERICA the general trends are near normal in many parts, or slightly warmer than average, with weak frontal systems. It is somewhat cooler and more unsettled in the far west however. On Monday, my local weather was overcast with rain at times, and a few rather heavy bursts. Highs were only about 9 or 10 C.

Thursday, 16 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some patchy cloud will persist in north-central counties, but the sun will get through at times there, and more frequently further south. It will be rather cool especially in the eastern third of the country due to light east winds from the Irish Sea. Highs will range from 10-13 C east, to 13-15 C west.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, scattered frost, lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY ... The mixture of cloud and sun may gradually improve to mostly sunny skies by afternoon, but temperatures will remain similar, highs 10-13 in the east to 13-15 C west.

SATURDAY to about TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy or sunny for most, and slightly warmer, morning lows about 0-3 C and highs 11-14 C east, 14-17 C west.

LATER NEXT WEEK ... The dry spell could continue to about Friday but cloud is likely to increase somewhat later in the week, with temperatures staying in a similar range to the above. Eventually, rain is likely to edge in from the west, by about the weekend of 25th-26th.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy with just very light drizzly rain in a few locations. The high was about 12 C.

Saturday, 18 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs today at 7:57 p.m. (6:57 p.m. Universal time) but no eclipse will take place.

TODAY ... Mostly sunny with a few cloudy intervals. Highs about 13-15 C east, 15-17 C west. Moderate east to southeast breezes with some gusts to about 50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated frost developing, lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine, temperatures similar to today's trends, 13-15 C east and 15-18 C west.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers near east coast, warm. Lows about 4-6 C and highs 14-18 C, possibly near 20 C inland west.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy intervals, warm. Lows 4-7 C and highs 16-19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Little change through Friday, then cloudier skies and chances of rain increasing through the weekend of 25th-26th. Temperatures continuing somewhat above normal values daytime, 16-20 C.

My local weather on Friday was breezy but sunny with a pleasant high of about 17 C.

Monday, 20 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Morning light rain moving northwest through Ulster should be finished by mid-day but most other places will remain dry, with cloud breaking to partly sunny skies later today. It will be quite warm except close to east and south coasts due to onshore southeast breezes there. Highs for most about 16 to 19 C, but 12 to 14 C along exposed coasts.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to clear, isolated ground frost inland west and central counties, lows -1 to +5 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals with some lingering mist or low cloud near some outer coasts in southwest. Highs for most will be 16-19 C, 13-15 C exposed coasts.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue dry and warm with highs around 17 or 18 C. Night-time lows will trend upward due to somewhat more cloud cover and a stronger breeze at times, 5-8 C.

FRIDAY will see a change to wet weather with 5-10 mm rain in many areas from a low moving through from the southwest, temperatures 14-16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK is showery and somewhat cooler, highs 13-15 C. It may be even colder by Monday and Tuesday with the risk of sleety showers on high ground in northwesterly winds.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and warm with highs near 21 C.

Wednesday, 22 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, with some isolated enhanced cloud that seems likely to produce "virga" or showers aloft not reaching the ground. You may see some of this activity moving towards the northwest in south Leinster this morning. Rather warm (16-19 C) except near coastlines facing southeast with onshore sea breezes (12-15 C). One or two locations inland west could top out near 20 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear with a few cloudy intervals, lows 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, a few isolated showers developing mostly inland north, somewhat more humid and continuing rather warm with highs about 17 or 18 C although sea breezes on most coasts could reduce highs locally to about 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming overcast during the early morning, lows around 8 C. Then the day will be cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, heaviest in south Connacht, Clare, central to north Leinster and east Ulster where 10-15 mm possible. More showery further south where it will remain warm, 15-17 C, while highs in the steadier rain will be around 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, colder, occasional showers or periods of rain, morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C. Winds northwest to north at 50-70 km/hr.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Windy and cold, passing showers of rain, hail or sleet (snow is possible on higher slopes). Isolated thunder. Morning lows about 2 C and afternoon highs 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Frosty nights and cool days mid-week as high pressure builds again but highs only about 12-15 C.

The forecast for BRITAIN will be generally quite similar, although it won't start to rain in southern England until Friday evening or Saturday early morning.

Over most of NORTH AMERICA the weather is turning quite a bit colder than recent days, with upper level winds turning more northerly. My local weather on Tuesday started sunny, turned cloudy and then some light rain arrived this evening (local time) with a high of about 17 C but falling temperatures now.

Friday, 24 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for a significant change to near-wintry conditions ... Details may change especially in the medium range, and the various models have slightly different evolutions of the mid-week mixed precipitation scenario, however there is little reason to doubt that temperatures will be well below average starting tomorrow.


TODAY ... Rain will move gradually further north and will become heavier by afternoon and evening in west-central to northeastern counties while tapering off to showers in the south. This will produce rainfalls of 10-15 mm further north and lesser amounts in the southeast. Highs 14-16 C in the south, about 12-14 C in the heavier rain and 10-12 C further north. Becoming foggy on hills in parts of the north.

TONIGHT ... Rain at times will begin to edge back to the south, but it may remain largely dry near the south coast, with rain starting back up again after midnight in central counties. Lows 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Northerly winds will filter colder air into the country with the rain moving slowly further south, and mostly cloudy conditions further north with a few showers turning wintry by later in the day over higher terrain in the north. Temperatures steady 8-10 C south, 6-9 C north. Feeling even colder in winds of 40-70 km/hr from the north.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cold with wintry showers developing, snow on hills, sleet or hail at lower elevations although mostly rain showers near sea level especially along east and south coasts. Morning lows from -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs about 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy, very cold for late April, wintry showers possible with accumulations of 5-10 cm snow on some higher terrain in Connacht, west Ulster and higher mountains elsewhere. Morning lows -3 to +3 C and highs about 5 to 8 C in many places, 8-11 C south coast. Moderate northwest winds 40-70 km/hr adding further chill.

TUESDAY ... Continuing cold, breezy and very cold with mixed or wintry showers possible, some sunny intervals too, morning lows -3 to +3 C and afternoon highs 7-11 C.

WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY ... Some risk of a heavy rainfall with temperatures cold enough for sleet or snow on hills, temperatures continuing very low for this time of year (4-7 C on average). The low may track across the southeast making the mixed precipitation heavier in those counties especially on east-facing slopes of Wicklow Mountains.

There are indications of a prolonged spell of rather cold weather following on, with the average about 4 degrees below normal values on guidance for the first half of May. Winds will continue from a northerly to northeasterly direction in that period.

For BRITAIN, most of this rather nasty spell of weather will materialize by later today or tonight in southern regions, and eventually it may become even more wintry than in Ireland as both the late weekend disturbance and the mid-week storm look capable of dropping heavy wet snow in parts of Wales and central to northern England. The main question will be the dividing line by elevation between cold rain and accumulating snow, at the moment this appears to be about 200 metres above sea level.

Meanwhile, my local weather was rather cloudy with outbreaks of light rain and it felt very cold at about 8 or 9 C.

Sunday, 26 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT for wintry showers and some accumulations of snow especially on higher ground in Connacht and Ulster, but occasionally in other locations, from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday morning. Sharp frosts will also occur inland.


TODAY ... Sunny this morning in most of eastern and southern counties, as wintry showers gradually develop over the north and west. These will begin to release a mixed bag of hail, rain and snow over many parts of Connacht and Ulster by afternoon, and some will drift further south and east. Highs may reach 8-11 C but temperatures will tend to fall during heavy showers. The total precipitation from these will vary from 5-10 mm in northwest, to trace amounts near south coast. Moderate northwest winds will add some chill especially near the northwest coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals with sharp frost developing inland, as the wintry showers become more confined to hills in northwest. Lows -3 to +3 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, frequent wintry showers with some significant accumulations of snow likely above 100 metres above sea level in Connacht and Ulster. Hail and rain showers, some thunder also, in the mix. Very cool for late April, highs 5-9 C. Moderate westerly winds 50-70 km/hr adding to the chill.

TUESDAY ... Little change with just a slight upturn in temperatures taking the rain-snow dividing line upslope a little (to about 250 metres) and frequent mixed showers, cool in westerly winds, lows -3 to +3 C and highs 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Frequent showers, or periods of rain, rather gusty winds from west veering northwest later, morning lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain in some areas, winds gusting to 80 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Some sunny intervals at times, isolated showers, morning lows about 2 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will remain mostly cloudy with occasional rain, highs around 12 to 14 C.

NEXT WEEK could see another interval of wintry conditions returning with strong winds and temperatures well below average (estimating 7-9 C at this point).

Over most of BRITAIN, similar inclement conditions will develop, although southern England will not see too much of this before mid-week, despite it being rather cool. Eventually very strong winds are indicated for parts of eastern England and Scotland as deep lows form over the North Sea.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with outbreaks of hail and rain, highs only near 9 C.

Tuesday, 28 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, occasional showers but longer periods of rain by late afternoon and evening, 8-15 mm can be expected, and rather strong southwest winds at times gusting to 80 km/hr will add considerable chill to the afternoon temperatures which will peak at about 10 C. Snow will only be seen on higher slopes as somewhat warmer air moves in at higher elevations. However, hail showers could develop and leave brief coatings.

TONIGHT ... Showers will clear for a while, becoming quite cold with isolated frost possible, lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud during the morning will rapidly lead to showers then further periods of rain, 10 mm on average. Highs 10-12 C in gusty west to northwest winds (peak gusts 90 km/hr).

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers and longer sunny intervals, cloud will return from southwest later in the afternoon for parts of west Munster. Morning lows -2 to +4 C and highs 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, intervals of drizzle or light rain, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 10-12 C in moderate east to southeast winds.

WEEKEND to MONDAY outlook is for very unsettled and possibly stormy conditions by the end of the period as low pressure gradually develops near Cork and moves slowly north into Connacht by early Tuesday. This may bring some substantial rainfalls especially Sunday-Monday, and strong winds by Monday night into Tuesday as the low continues to deepen and move off towards western Scotland. Southwest winds veering westerly could gust as high as 110 km/hr at least. Temperatures all weekend will be somewhat improved over this week at about 13-15 C. Once this storm moves away, a slightly colder northwest flow will set in but this will likely be replaced by mild and cloudy conditions before the week is finished.

My local weather on Monday featured a classic warm frontal passage, something we don't see all that often, it was foggy and drizzly all morning then the sun came out and temperatures soared towards 19 C. I'm expecting the reverse sequence today with a cold front approaching.

Thursday, 30 April, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers developing, but some places will likely remain dry, and amounts in any case will be slight (1-3 mm). Sunshine may be better near the south coast than elsewhere. Highs 8-11 C with the colder values in the inland north. Just light northerly winds backing to easterly later on. Cloud slowly approaching southwest coast by evening.

TONIGHT ... Gradually increasing cloud, light rain in parts of west Munster by morning. Moderate east to southeast winds developing. Lows 1-4 C with scattered light ground frost inland north and east.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy but with decent sunny intervals developing by afternoon, showers more isolated. Cool and breezy (NW to N 30-50 km/hr) with highs 8-11 C. Cloudy by late afternoon near south coast.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain, highs about 11 or 12 C. About 5-10 mm rain likely. Moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Continuing cloudy and damp with heavier rain in west during the morning, then becoming more scattered in variable conditions by afternoon. Moderate to strong southeast winds 50-90 km/hr, lows 5-8 C and highs 10-14 C. About 10 to 15 mm rain likely. There could be some very gusty conditions around inland south, south coast, and east coast mid-day.

SUNDAY ... Outbreaks of heavy, showery rain and risk of some thunderstorm activity, a bit warmer and more humid. Lows 8-10 C and highs 13-15 C. A further 10-20 mm rain likely.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy at times, showers but some sunny breaks developing. Lows 4-7 C and highs 12-14 C. About 2-5 mm rain likely.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, breezy, near normal temperatures, highs about 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern looks somewhat warmer with the occasional dry day but still somewhat unsettled, overall not far from normal May conditions -- earlier indications of a warm dry spell look a bit diminished but could return to the outlook as this often happens in cycles in the two-week outlook period before a signal gets better established. I have been looking at the summer forecast and so far can't find much to move my thinking away from "average" conditions, but will wait until mid-May for a final call.

Meanwhile, for BRITAIN, the pattern over the next five days looks about the same as the above forecasts but on Tuesday a rather strong low could affect southern and eastern England while largely missing Ireland as it moves up from France, so if you have travel plans around then, watch forecasts for details, there could be some rough ferry crossings around Tuesday as a result of this circulation.

Conditions in NORTH AMERICA are now warming gradually in many regions back into at least the normal range after several cool days. Wednesday was partly cloudy with brief showers at times at my location, and the high was about 13 C.

Saturday, 2 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and wet (15-25 mm rain possible) with risk of heavy downpours and embedded thundershowers. Some brief dry intervals may come and go in central Munster but rain will be more frequent elsewhere. Winds southeast 60-90 km/hr at times although somewhat less windy for part of the afternoon, the wind veering more southerly by late afternoon and evening. Highs 11-14 C but temperatures may only be around 7 to 9 C until late afternoon in parts of Ulster and Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Bursts of heavier rain will reach Connacht early evening and spread gradually across Ulster overnight, but rain will ease further south to drizzle or mist. Temperatures will be steady or even rise a little in the colder north, reaching 9-10 C by morning.

SUNDAY ... Early morning showers or thunderstorms then variable cloud, further showers developing but some dry intervals and brief sunny breaks are possible, at least some improvement from Saturday ... winds moderate south to southwest 50-70 km/hr. Afternoon highs 13-16 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

MONDAY ... Brief dry intervals in the morning, outbreaks of light rain by mid-day south and west, afternoon and evening east, becoming heavy at times by evening. Total rainfalls on Monday about 5-10 mm for most. Winds rather variable as two areas of low pressure interact, generally not a windy day but a few moderate gusts likely near west coast. Morning lows about 7 C and afternoon highs 12-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Becoming windy and showery, winds SSW to WSW 60-100 km/hr by late afternoon or evening, and cool, with temperatures steady 8-12 C. About 5 mm further rain except in parts of Ulster where 10-15 mm may fall.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, winds SW to W 60-100 km/hr with strong gusts near Atlantic coasts. Lows near 7 C and highs about 10-12 C.

THURSDAY and early FRIDAY may see some improvement to partly cloudy and warmer weather with highs near 16 C. Northern coastal regions may remain in low cloud and light rain. However, later Friday into the following weekend then looks rather similar to mid-week with a return to strong winds and heavier more widespread rainfalls. Beyond that, best estimate is for continued variable but unsettled conditions with near normal temperatures in the mid teens.


Over in BRITAIN the conditions will be broadly similar although today will be generally quite chilly and rain will affect mostly southern especially southwestern counties of England and parts of Wales. The Tuesday disturbance will be somewhat stronger in eastern England which may feel the sting of gale force winds by evening or overnight.

NORTH AMERICA has some reasonably warm conditions in most regions and it is mid-summer hot in the southwest where highs are reaching the mid to high 30s. Although we are in a cooler Pacific air mass here, it was pleasantly warm at about 17 C on Friday and it could nudge 20 C with isolated thunderstorms forming on a weak front later today (meaning Saturday).

Monday, 4 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Morning sunshine will fade quickly in the west behind advancing cloud leading to some light rain there, but the sun may be able to hold out until afternoon in eastern counties where cloud will be followed rather quickly by heavy rain moving up from the Biscay region. That is due to begin in Wexford and Waterford around 5 p.m. and will spread into the remainder of Leinster as well as parts of east Munster by evening. Not too windy but some moderate southerly breezes will back to easterly by this evening. Highs should reach 14 C in the east and 12 C in the west.

TONIGHT ... Rain will be heavy at times in Leinster and east Ulster, and moderate elsewhere. Expect about 25 mm east, tapering down to 10 mm west coast. Winds east backing to north then northwest 40-70 km/hr as the low tracks slowly northeast over the Irish Sea. Another low further west will keep winds southerly near the Atlantic coasts. Lows about 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain will bring another 10-15 mm in bands, with brief brighter intervals possible, as winds slowly increase during the afternoon and evening from the northwest. Highs 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rather windy and cool with bands of heavy showers, but also some dry intervals and brief sunny breaks, in westerly winds of 60-90 km/hr with strongest gusts near Donegal Bay. Morning lows 5-7 C and afternoon highs 12-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Considerable improvement to partly sunny and light winds, morning lows 3-7 C and afternoon highs 14-17 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will then become wet again with 15-25 mm rainfalls expected and temperatures not far from normal values of 14-15 C each day. There may be a brief dry interval early Sunday but another front will quickly move into the vacuum and bring more rain.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is for generally unsettled weather with temperatures close to normal mid-May values.

Most of the above will apply to forecasts for BRITAIN and tonight's rain could become very heavy in Wales and the Midlands.

My local weather was sunny and pleasantly warm on Sunday with a high of about 20 C. Our brief warm and dry spell appears set to break down later today or tonight.

Wednesday, 6 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Windy and cool with frequent showers or periods of rain, sometimes heavy but becoming more showery with some breaks in the overcast developing by afternoon. Winds generally W-NW 50-80 km/hr with some higher gusts possible near Donegal Bay and Galway Bay. Highs 11-13 C. About 10 to 15 mm further rainfall can be expected.

TONIGHT ... Light showers may continue in parts of the north and in west Munster, some other regions will become dry but clearing will be slow, and winds will gradually subside to under 40 km/hr, with lows about 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Latest guidance is not quite as good as the trends earlier, it will be at least a dry day in some areas and showers in a few locations will be generally light, but rather cloudy overall with just some sunny breaks, and highs about 14-15 C. (The departing low has developed a bit of a trailing secondary trough is the technical explanation)

FRIDAY ... Dry and rather chilly (lows 2-5 C with isolated ground frost) to start the day in most regions, increasing and thickening cloud and a strengthening east wind (southeast near the south coast) will herald the gradual approach of a rather vigorous storm system that will produce widespread heavy rainfalls overnight into Saturday morning. But this rain will only be a factor in the southwest for Friday and highs will be about 13 C.

FRIDAY NIGHT and SATURDAY will see heavy rain and gusty winds 50-80 km/hr with potential for higher gusts, from southeast veering to southwesterly, except for easterly gales near the north coast. By later in the day, the rain will become more showery and winds will turn more northwesterly. Embedded thunderstorms are possible especially over the inland southeast and central counties. About 20-30 mm rainfall can be expected with possible local flooding. Temperatures steady 10-14 C.

SUNDAY will have a foggy start with a few morning sunny breaks possible in a warm, humid southerly flow, then rain will spread in from the west and once again it may turn heavy at times. Lows 8-10 C and highs 15-16 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... There could be brief dry intervals and slightly warmer temperatures but eventually this unsettled pattern will probably "reload" and several more of these windy, wet systems will rip across Ireland around mid-week and towards the following weekend. (don't shoot the messenger)

Over most of BRITAIN, this sequence will be somewhat later but otherwise similar. Some severe storms are possible in England late Saturday and again on Sunday afternoon or evening. If there is a warm interval, temperatures could reach as high as 23 C with a more direct feed from the warmer continent. But it won't last too long before mid-teens return.

NORTH AMERICA will see some heavy storms too, in regions from the Ohio valley to southern New England. The far west will have gusty showers along a rather weak front moving inland but dry weather will soon return. My local weather on Tuesday was interesting, there was heavy hail nearby in parts of Vancouver but it missed my place to the north by about a mile and we only saw a brief shower. That storm continued on for another 50-100 kms to the east dropping more hail as it went. The high was about 14 C.

Friday, 8 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


Weather systems have accelerated which means that the sequence of events we discussed yesterday is now on a faster pace. This may lead to heavy rainfalls in parts of south-central Ireland today, but a more settled day tomorrow than expected earlier. The faster pace also affects timing of events right through to about Tuesday.

TODAY ... Outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain with slight risk of thunder by afternoon already underway in Munster will spread into Leinster, with 20-30 mm possible. Connacht and Ulster will see about 10 mm except in portions of east Galway and south Roscommon which may be closer to 20 mm. Winds moderate southeast (backing to northeast in Ulster) at about 30-50 km/hr and rather chilly with highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending from west to east followed by fog or mist, some local clearing (where lows may fall a bit further), lows generally 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with isolated but possibly heavy showers or a localized thunderstorm possible. Highs 14-16 C. With this change in timing, not as windy as earlier expected.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain may become heavy at times, partially clearing but further showers likely with risk of thunder, warm and humid with morning lows only falling to about 8-10 C and afternoon highs 16-18 C. Moderate southerly winds 50-70 km/hr with higher gusts near Atlantic coasts.

MONDAY ... Isolated showers, rather warm, with some sunshine at times, moderate southerly to southwesterly winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 9 C and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY ... Continuing rather warm, humid, outbreaks of rain becoming heavy by mid-day west, afternoon east, highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, cooler. Highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather unsettled, breezy to windy at times, near normal temperatures later in the week. There are faint signs of improvement towards the end of the weekend (16th-17th) and into the following week, but the models are perhaps struggling a bit at the moment. This change in timing seems to be related to developments upstream where a tropical storm has developed off the southeast coast of the U.S. and now appears to be heading north then northeast eventually (earlier it was supposed to die out inland).

The sequence of events for BRITAIN has of course also sped up, meaning that the heavier rain will now hit Friday night into Saturday morning there. The warmer spell should still last well into Tuesday before that frontal system hits by evening. So it may still get up into the low 20s in southeast England on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, NORTH AMERICA will continue to see very warm weather in the eastern and central regions, as the cold front makes slow progress towards the Great Lakes region but new disturbances hold back fronts in the south central regions. Subtropical storm Ana has formed off the GA-SC coasts and will edge closer to land all day with 80 km/hr wind gusts. Some rain from this may affect play at the Players Championship near Jacksonville FL at times. The far west is also warming up as a strong ridge in the jet stream develops right over the coast. Thursday was sunny and warm at my location (20 C) and several more days of 23-26 C sunshine are forecast.

Sunday, 10 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain may become heavy at times in the morning across western counties, and this will shift to the eastern half of Ireland by afternoon. Rain should reach Dublin around 2-4 p.m. Expect about 15-20 mm with possible embedded thundershowers. Moderate south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing in parts of the south and west, but the evening will continue rather wet in Leinster, followed by a few remnant showers, and it will be mild, and foggy in places, with lows 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, rather warm and humid, scattered showers although amounts also quite variable (3-15 mm). Afternoon highs 14-17 C.

TUESDAY ... Some morning sunshine especially in south, but cloudy with outbreaks of light rain likely to follow, 5-10 mm northern counties, possibly much lighter amounts in south with some chance of a dry day in places. Highs about 14-15 C in south, 11-12 C in the north. Moderate southwest to west winds.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to mostly sunny, light winds mainly from the southeast by afternoon, lower humidity, morning lows about 5-7 C and highs 13-14 C.

THURSDAY is likely to see an interval of heavy rain as low pressure moves into the south. Potential for 15-25 mm in southern counties, not as heavy in north (about 5-10 mm). Highs near 12 C. Moderate to strong east winds backing to northerly as the low passes on a track towards southern England.

FRIDAY will see some clearing but with the risk of further rain developing late in the day. Highs 12-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Generally more settled with near normal temperatures and perhaps more sunshine too.

For southern parts of BRITAIN, today should remain dry and warm until the band of rain arrives this evening or overnight, but it will push into Scotland during the day. Highs about 18-20 C. Trends beyond today will be similar to the forecasts above although events are rather slow moving so that various rain events will probably arrive half a day later in most places in Britain.

Over eastern and central NORTH AMERICA, mostly warm and humid, outbreaks of heavy thunderstorms in south central states, dry near east coast except where Tropical Storm Ana moves slowly inland overnight and Monday near Charleston, South Carolina. Remnants of that storm will slowly push north bringing 50-100 mm rainfalls to the mid-Atlantic states. Very warm and dry in the far west, my local weather on Saturday was sunny with a high of about 25 C.

Tuesday, 12 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland



TODAY ... Frequent showers in north spreading later to central counties, some morning sunshine in south, but cloudy by afternoon with isolated showers. Temperatures may peak rather early (10-12 C north, 14-15 C south) then fall off slightly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing with a slight ground frost likely inland, lows generally in the range 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud over parts of west Munster by afternoon. Highs 12-15 C with higher readings in Connacht and north Munster. Moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr developing by late in the day.

THURSDAY ... Overcast, periods of rain from early morning to mid-day west, afternoon southeast, may become heavy, 15-25 mm likely across the south but lesser amounts or remaining dry north where some afternoon sunshine could develop, chilly with raw east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Temperatures steady in the range 9 to 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, moderate west to northwest winds backing to southwest by afternoon, somewhat warmer especially in southwest, a few showers possible, morning lows 4-7 C and highs 12-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Showers, highs near 14 C and moderate westerly winds.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, highs near 15 C. Moderate southwest winds.

MONDAY ... Showers, turning colder, highs 12-14 C. Moderate west to northwest winds.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue rather cool and moderately windy
from the northwest, gusts to 70 km/hr in west coastal counties. Highs 11-13C.

Hopefully the last third of May will bring some warmer weather -- seems like a good bet anyway.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few isolated showers, only a few raindrops at a time but sunshine very limited, highs about 16 C.

Thursday, 14 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Overcast, periods of rain continuing to late morning in western counties, and to about mid-afternoon in the southeast, heavy at times, with a further 10-20 mm likely across the south but lesser amounts (5-10 mm central) while remaining dry further north where some afternoon sunshine could develop. This may spread down the west coast by late afternoon or evening. It will feel rather cold with raw east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr backing to northerly along Atlantic coasts by afternoon. Temperatures steady in the range 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals, fog or mist patches developing, rather cold with lows 2-5 C and risk of isolated ground frost.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, moderate west to northwest winds backing to southwest by afternoon 40-70 km/hr, somewhat warmer especially in southwest, a few showers possible and intervals of heavier rain by evening lasting through the night to Saturday morning in northern regions, and highs 12-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavier rain ending around sunrise in north (10-15 mm), lows 5-8 C, then occasional showers mostly north of a Galway-Dublin line, and highs near 14 C with moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr. Some sunny breaks likely in southern half of the country.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows 4-7 C and highs near 15 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Showers, turning colder, highs 12-14 C. Moderate west to northwest winds.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue rather cool and moderately windy from the north-northwest, gusts to 70 km/hr in west coastal counties. Highs 11-13C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It may remain rather cool and unsettled through the weekend of the 23rd-24th but then a slow warming trend is likely.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with traces of rain and a high of about 15 C.

Friday, 15 May, 2015

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, moderate west to northwest winds backing to southwest by afternoon 40-70 km/hr, somewhat warmer especially in southwest, highs 13-15 C, a few showers possible and intervals of heavier rain now expected by late afternoon clearing about midnight from northern regions, where perhaps 10 mm could fall.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending, partial clearing, breezy, lows 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Some morning sunshine likely especially eastern counties, then occasional showers mostly north of a Galway-Dublin line, and highs near 14 C with moderate westerly winds 40-70 km/hr. Some sunny breaks likely in southern half of the country.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows 4-7 C and highs around 15 C. Moderate southwest winds 40-70 km/hr. Periods of heavier rain likely by Sunday night into early Monday.

MONDAY ... Rain then a few showers, partly cloudy for much of the day but turning colder, highs 12-14 C. Moderate west to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue rather cool and moderately windy from the north-northwest, gusts to 70 km/hr in west coastal counties. Highs 11-13C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It may remain rather cool and unsettled through the weekend of the 23rd-24th but then a slow warming trend is likely.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy and the high was around 17C.