Champion Hurdle, 13-03-12

RichieLawlor · 22-02-2012 9:10am

Zarkandar

premierstone wrote: »

They also have Al Ferof rated ahead of Sprinter Sacre and Grand Crus which quite frankly is redicilous.

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Fryern · 22-02-2012 9:18am

Grandouet

Food for thought:-

HF - Stupid price 13/14 best. It's odds on he won't turn up for starters!

Winning time Champion Hurdle - The Fly 3m 53.6s full out Good going..............Binocular 3m 53.9s hacking up Good to Soft

You can still get 36/5 on Binocular.

I know where my money is (took 15/1 on Betfair last week and a load of 8-1 on Monday - Coral) and I will lay for a free ride.

I also repeat (posted elsewhere) I can't see Binocular winning on soft or heavy ground. His slick action needs good going ideally. Good news is Prestbury Park is usually good ground particularly in March. I hear they are about to start watering soon - gently chaps.

btw Binocular will replace Zarkandar imo as 2nd fav any moment. Most unlike a horse that is coughing will be anywhere near its best in 3 weeks time or make the race. Don't back Grandouet great lay yesterday. Won't run with stitches in his leg!

newuser89 · 22-02-2012 9:27am

Other (please specify)

Ok he outstayed then
But someone was talking about how he won't keep up with the speed horses when he clearly will based on last year.
Same track same distance,no reason why he would be done for toe as he proved he's capable last year

RichieLawlor · 22-02-2012 9:38am

Zarkandar

newuser89 wrote: »

Ok he outstayed then
But someone was talking about how he won't keep up with the speed horses when he clearly will based on last year.
Same track same distance,no reason why he would be done for toe as he proved he's capable last year

Your right, he has the beating of last years 4 year olds. But there is a rather large 174 rated shadow that he will be following.

I'm not knocking Zarkandar, he's a very good horse. Last years triumph was obviously very good.

But, if he runs like he has in every race do far, ie off the bridle and being pushed along a good bit out he won't be staying on past stronger horses who won't be stopping in front. He MUST travel better, to win he MUST travel with Hurricane Fly and then he MUST pick up quicker than him from the last up the hill.

If you can see those things happening then back Zarkandar. If not, save your money

RichieLawlor · 22-02-2012 9:40am

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

Food for thought:-

HF - Stupid price 13/14 best. It's odds on he won't turn up for starters!

Lol

I will back him at 4/5 to turn up with you if you want to lay me.

newuser89 · 22-02-2012 9:41am

Other (please specify)

I don't see him beating hurricane fly.
I just think he's better than people give him credit for.
I think he will beat the rest anyway

Juwwi · 22-02-2012 9:47am

newuser89 wrote: »

Ok he outstayed then
But someone was talking about how he won't keep up with the speed horses when he clearly will based on last year.
Same track same distance,no reason why he would be done for toe as he proved he's capable last year

The CH on the tuesday is run on the old course which is more a speed test .

and then they change to the new course on the thursday and friday
which apparently is more of a test of stamina.

Colonel Sanders · 22-02-2012 10:10am

Zarkandar

Odds on HF won't turn up??

I'll have as much odds against you'll lay he will turn up so. Tell you what I'll be generous, I'll take an even 1k

Colonel Sanders · 22-02-2012 10:13am

Zarkandar

RichieLawlor wrote: »

premierstone wrote: »

They also have Al Ferof rated ahead of Sprinter Sacre and Grand Crus which quite frankly is redicilous.

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Completely agree

Let's not forget both Grand Crus & SS have a "p" beside their names. The Feltham form wasn't exactly boosted on Saturfay either

premierstone · 22-02-2012 11:39am

Zarkandar

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Completely agree

Let's not forget both Grand Crus & SS have a "p" beside their names. The Feltham form wasn't exactly boosted on Saturfay either

I dont agree lads, I have analysed both of sprinter scares last two races on the clock and tbh its scary, the sectionals are frightening, and lest not forget he has broken two track records on the bridle. Al Ferof wont finish within 10 lenghts of him.

premierstone · 22-02-2012 11:41am

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

HF - Stupid price 13/14 best!

I agree completely 13/14 is a stupid price, he should be more like 1/2

Fill yer boots, the horse is simply a superstar.

Slattsy · 22-02-2012 12:38pm

Zarkandar

premierstone wrote: »

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Completely agree

Let's not forget both Grand Crus & SS have a "p" beside their names. The Feltham form wasn't exactly boosted on Saturfay either

I dont agree lads, I have analysed both of sprinter scares last two races on the clock and tbh its scary, the sectionals are frightening, and lest not forget he has broken two track records on the bridle. Al Ferof wont finish within 10 lenghts of him.

Very good point. I've never been one to follow sectionals as such, but they are unbelievably ridiculously good. This horse is a monster.

Slattsy · 22-02-2012 12:42pm

Zarkandar

Grandouet now a major doubt for Cheltenham. Henderson is afraid he might need surgery on whatever caused him to miss Wincanton last weekend.
Why is it always Henderson !!??
Field is slowly starting to fall apart.

Sorry I don't have the link as I'm on my phone.

klairondavis · 22-02-2012 12:51pm

hucklebuck wrote: »

What as a 5 year old, with a cough and work left in him?:rolleyes:

That was not his true running, he didn't look anywhere near as fit as he did at Cheltenham or Aintree and Nicholls said plenty of times he would come on a lot for the run and not to mention the cold.

Nicholls has reported that he's already back cantering so he can't have been that sick of a horse. No denying that he will improve for the run, for the experience more than anything, but he has got to improve at least a stone and even that may not be good enough if HF has improved from Leopardstown.

Nicholls often gets his excuses in early before a run but the betting will nearly always be an accurate guide of how ready his horses are. Zarkandar was backed in the weeks before Newbury as if defeat was out of the question. IMO he was fairly straight and won't find a great deal more improvement at Cheltenham. I'd be shocked if he finishes ahead of HF.

mccarte2 · 22-02-2012 1:12pm

Rock on Ruby

premierstone wrote: »

I dont agree lads, I have analysed both of sprinter scares last two races on the clock and tbh its scary, the sectionals are frightening, and lest not forget he has broken two track records on the bridle. Al Ferof wont finish within 10 lenghts of him.

Can't remember who it was (could have been Nick Luck or Hugh Taylor) that tweeted last week that sectional times for NH races can't be that accurate as the measurements / distances aren't exact and are pretty rough unlike the US Flat racing for example. Just worth bearing in mind more than anything else.

Fryern · 22-02-2012 1:43pm

Grandouet

premierstone wrote: »

I agree completely 13/14 is a stupid price, he should be more like 1/2 Fill yer boots, the horse is simply a superstar.

Your all missing the point the race is over 3 weeks away. You must factor in the chance he won't turn up. I say there is an even chance he won't so if your daft enough to take the current odds don't blame me. I've seen it all before.

Now 15-1 about Binocular and even 8-1 after the weekend was a snip. He's now best 34/5 and shortening. Odds checker now have him as second favourite.

Can't see HF beating him on good going and the difference is still 5-1+.

premierstone · 22-02-2012 1:45pm

Zarkandar

mccarte2 wrote: »

Can't remember who it was (could have been Nick Luck or Hugh Taylor) that tweeted last week that sectional times for NH races can't be that accurate as the measurements / distances aren't exact and are pretty rough unlike the US Flat racing for example. Just worth bearing in mind more than anything else.

Oh agree very much, the main problem with sectionals in NH is inaccurate distances of races and ground descriptions they need to be used merely as a pointer and in comparison to sectionals at that course that day, which of course is a very limited comparison, but some of the figures Im getting are soo good that I have very little doubt about there credibility, the most notable I guess is from he's Kempton run, where Finnians Rainbow won later on the card over the same distance but Sprinters mid race sectionals and from the third last to the last fence are something in the region of 10 lenghts better than Finnians Rainbow.

From what I have seen unless he falls or absolutely dies on the hill he is as much of a banker as Big Bucks. Hurricane Fly or Quevega.

premierstone · 22-02-2012 1:51pm

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

Your all missing the point the race is over 3 weeks away. You must factor in the chance he won't turn up. I say there is an even chance he won't so if your daft enough to take the current odds don't blame me. I've seen it all before.

Now 15-1 about Binocular and even 8-1 after the weekend was a snip. He's now best 34/5 and shortening. Odds checker now have him as second favourite.

Can't see HF beating him on good going and the difference is still 5-1+.

I think its you that is missing the point all championship races are NRNB and have been for a while

So you think there is a 50% chance Hurricane Fly wont turn up, what exactly is this based on??

As for HF not beating Binocular on good ground, what is the evidence for this, because 9 lenghts was the gap in Punchestown last year and If either horse is on the upgrade Im pretty sure I know which one! Anyway Day 1 Cheltenham the ground will be Good to Soft.

Colonel Sanders · 22-02-2012 1:54pm

Zarkandar

I'll have an even grand HF turns up please

ft9 · 22-02-2012 1:58pm

Zarkandar

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'll have an even grand HF turns up please

Me too

convert · 22-02-2012 3:12pm

Poll added to this thread at the suggestion of a regular on the fourm (I haven't posted their name, but they can claim the credit in a later post if they like

Slattsy · 22-02-2012 3:15pm

Zarkandar

convert wrote: »

Poll added to this thread at the suggestion of a regular on the fourm (I haven't posted their name, but they can claim the credit in a later post if they like

The poll results look like a tasty orange

ft9 · 22-02-2012 3:16pm

Zarkandar

All the favs for me in the big ones this year. They look so straight forward.

Plus i'm sitting on a nice bet, waiting on Hurricane Fly to win this for €600.

Recent runs of Binocular and Zarkandar worry me slightly.

TheMilkyPirate · 22-02-2012 3:29pm

Zarkandar

ft9 wrote: »

All the favs for me in the big ones this year. They look so straight forward.

Plus i'm sitting on a nice bet, waiting on Hurricane Fly to win this for €600.

Recent runs of Binocular and Zarkandar worry me slightly.

They wouldn't worry me

Fryern · 22-02-2012 3:41pm

Grandouet

premierstone wrote: »

I think its you that is missing the point all championship races are NRNB and have been for a while

Well that's a load of garbage.

It's an anti post market from Betfair CH rules (one example) :-

All bets stand run or not unless void under the Horseracing Rules and Regs or under the Betfair Terms and Conditions.

premierstone · 22-02-2012 4:09pm

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

Well that's a load of garbage.

It's an anti post market from Betfair CH rules (one example) :-

All bets stand run or not unless void under the Horseracing Rules and Regs or under the Betfair Terms and Conditions.

You are aware that Betfair is not a bookies right?? Non runners are of course a loosing bet on the exchanges, so when the highstreet bookies are going NRNB why would you use the exchanges when the price diiferential is almost non existant?

Fryern · 22-02-2012 4:30pm

Grandouet

premierstone wrote: »

You are aware that Betfair is not a bookies right?? Non runners are of course a loosing bet on the exchanges, so when the highstreet bookies are going NRNB why would you use the exchanges when the price diiferential is almost non existant?

StanJames Champion Hurdle 13 Mar 15:20

Outright Ante Post's EW: 1/4 1,2,3

All In, Run Or Not

Above from Stan James themselves

It's an Anti Post market until 12th March - watch my lips ALL In, RUN Or Not

...............................SELL..............................

UnitedIrishman · 22-02-2012 4:39pm

Zarkandar

And what?

He could end up shorter if Zarkandar is still not right by the day and Grandouet is gone.

Sure Binocular missed last year with a late injury, same could happen him and your bets.

So no need for overexaggerations.

premierstone · 22-02-2012 4:42pm

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

StanJames Champion Hurdle 13 Mar 15:20

Outright Ante Post's EW: 1/4 1,2,3

All In, Run Or Not

Above from Stan James themselves

It's an Anti Post market until 12th March - watch my lips ALL In, RUN Or Not

...............................SELL..............................

So you dont bet with Stan James, you bet with one of the firms that are NRNB, seriously are you trying not to understand or what?

My own fault when you stated there was a 50% chance Hurricane Fly wouldnt turn up because its ''three weeks away'' I should have just ignored the rest.:rolleyes:

Fryern · 22-02-2012 4:49pm

Grandouet

premierstone wrote: »

So you dont bet with Stan James, you bet with one of the firms that are NRNB, seriously are you trying not to understand or what?

:rolleyes:

It's an anti post market - so clever ... whose going NRNB?? Name them.

ft9 · 22-02-2012 4:49pm

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

It's an anti post market - so clever ... whose going NRNB?? Name them.

Ladbrokes on the 4 championship races

premierstone · 22-02-2012 4:54pm

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

It's an anti post market - so clever ... whose going NRNB?? Name them.

NRNB is being offered by Ladbrokes, Bet365 and Betfred of the ones that I have accounts with there may be more.

Colonel Sanders · 22-02-2012 6:14pm

Zarkandar

Ladbrokes have been NRNB on the 4 championship races since well before Xmas too. Bet365 have been for ages too

Not like they just went yesterday.

ft9 · 22-02-2012 6:17pm

Zarkandar

Hurricane Fly running away with the poll. I hope ye are all correct!

mccarte2 · 22-02-2012 6:24pm

Rock on Ruby

Am on Oscars Well at 25's e/w so I had to go for him. I suspect he'll be battling it out for 3rd place though.

Fryern · 22-02-2012 6:30pm

Grandouet

premierstone wrote: »

NRNB is being offered by Ladbrokes, Bet365 and Betfred of the ones that I have accounts with there may be more.

<snip>

When I took 15-1 on Binocular they were all 10-1 or worse. Same applies when I took 8-1 and I not talking peanuts. As I said I will lay for a free bet. The 4/6 on is still stupid. You have to get best odds as well. I know bet365 offer that. btw NRNB is new and has come in because of all the doubt about what will turn up.

Who did you bet with and at what price when? Not interested in the amount.

mccarte2 · 22-02-2012 6:36pm

Rock on Ruby

Fryern wrote: »

Look at the silly prices or do you need a dummy?

When I took 15-1 on Binocular they were all 10-1 or worse. Same applies when I took 8-1 and I not talking peanuts. As I said I will lay for a free bet. The 4/6 on is still stupid. You have to get best odds as well. I know bet365 offer that. btw NRNB is new and has come in because of all the doubt about what will turn up.

Who did you bet with and at what price when? Not interested in the amount.

Wtf? Ladbrokes have it in place since before Xmas. All firms usually go NRNB 3/4 weeks before the festival.

Lay away till your hearts content but from the other thread you said you've backed them on the high street so enjoy the convenience of having to load up your BF account with funds just to cover your 'free bet'.

mccarte2 · 22-02-2012 6:39pm

Rock on Ruby

Fryern wrote: »

They have been 11/2 all the time on Binocular now 9/2. They don't want to lay him.

..............................SMART..............................................

Do you understand the principle of NRNB?

Anyhoo, they were 7's and 9's on him around Xmas / New Year and were 14's up until his run on Stephens Day when the NRNB was still available.

You're welcome in advance

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/cheltenham-festival/champion-hurdle/winner/bet-history/binocular

hucklebuck · 22-02-2012 7:15pm

Binocular

I think the only way he wins is if he is on the bit and the jockey gets to work before the second last to try get the quicker horses off the bridle, some job getting Hurricane Fly off it though.

I have plenty on Hurricane and have lots of Zarkandar ew and in the w/o market which i did ew at 9/2, free bet for top 4 and really good go at 2nd

Colonel Sanders · 22-02-2012 7:22pm

Zarkandar

While I'm not confident about either I had the following bets with Ladbrokes NRNB:

Oscars Well 25/1
Captain Chris 33/1

I'm actually hoping CC goes in the Ryanair for a refund as I now think he has no chance. When I placed both bets in December not only were Ladbrokes better price on both than the other high street bookies who weren't NRNB but also bigger than the lay prices on Betfair

With respect to their price on Binocular, no bookie goes top price on every horse unless they are running a promotion/price matching. They pick & choose who they want to lay & price accordingly. Stand up & take a few on, duck a few others

ft9 · 22-02-2012 7:40pm

Zarkandar

Why oh why did I ask that lad to come over here to this forum???

head-desk-facepalm-demotivational-poster-1274356860.jpg

ste2010 · 22-02-2012 8:03pm

Zarkandar

ft9 wrote: »

Why oh why did I ask that lad to come over here to this forum???

Classic ! Where's Huntey when ye need him

Is there such thing as the Ali g of forums

ft9 · 22-02-2012 8:39pm

Zarkandar

Huntey is gone, closed his account.

hucklebuck · 23-02-2012 12:42am

Binocular

Fryern wrote: »

Don't back Grandouet great lay yesterday. Won't run with stitches in his leg!

Henderson from http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=522824&lid=&raceid=&title=Grandouet+still+in+Champion+frame&ref=atrPA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Wed"It will become a concern, obviously, and you can only have so many days off at this stage, but as long as he is working by this weekend we are still in action and we've still got a chance.
"He not as sore as he was, and as long as the infection can be controlled, we've still got a realistic chance."

That said even if he is 100% fit I don't think he will be in the top three

hucklebuck · 23-02-2012 12:49am

Binocular

ft9 wrote: »

Hurricane Fly running away with the poll. I hope ye are all correct!

Just to **** things up I said Zarkandar

hucklebuck · 23-02-2012 1:06am

Binocular

Fryern wrote: »

NRNB is new and has come in because of all the doubt about what will turn up.

NRNB has been around as long as I have.

Out of interest how do you explain the fact bookies and Betfair still have antepost markets then? As every antepost market there is a doubt about what will turn up.

BTW if Hurricane Fly is evens in your book not to turn up, then Binocular must be around evens too which means your 15/1 on Betfair is realistically 7.5/1 less commission.

UrbanSea · 23-02-2012 12:14pm

Grandouet

After much deliberation,I've decided I'm backing Binocular. I reckon there'll be a defeated atmosphere in the bookies, with large smiles on the cashiers' faces, as Binocular storms up the hill under McCoy past Hurricane Run.

premierstone · 23-02-2012 2:09pm

Zarkandar

Slattsy wrote: »

Totally agree with James here. Some people in here are acting like 12 year olds. Maybe there are, sure we are in cyberspace. So because someone doesn't agree or disputes your opinion they're stupid?? Doesn't work like that boys, grow up.

Thats very sexist of you Slattsy, tut tut.

And to be fair if you post something on a public forum, especially something that is as off the wall as fryern did, then you can expect it to be challenged and when it was and it was pointed out to him/her repeatedly that they were incorrect they still tried to argue it. And fryern was'nt too slow at throwing out the insults either, despite the fact they were so wrong it was hilarious.

Slattsy · 23-02-2012 3:03pm

Zarkandar

premierstone wrote: »

Slattsy wrote: »

Totally agree with James here. Some people in here are acting like 12 year olds. Maybe there are, sure we are in cyberspace. So because someone doesn't agree or disputes your opinion they're stupid?? Doesn't work like that boys, grow up.

Thats very sexist of you Slattsy, tut tut.

And to be fair if you post something on a public forum, especially something that is as off the wall as fryern did, then you can expect it to be challenged and when it was and it was pointed out to him/her repeatedly that they were incorrect they still tried to argue it. And fryern was'nt too slow at throwing out the insults either, despite the fact they were so wrong it was hilarious.

I'm a sexist pig, what can I say ha ha.

Just because someone is wrong, doesn't make them stupid. Remember that boys and girls !!

Johner · 23-02-2012 3:07pm

Zarkandar

Grandouet is out.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/grandouet-ruled-out-of-champion-hurdle-by-injury/991297/top/

GRANDOUET, one time 5-1 second favourite for the Stan James Champion Hurdle, will miss Cheltenham due toan injury to his near hind (back left) fetlock joint.

Nicky Henderson told racingpost.com on Thursday: "There was further improvement in the joint today but he will not be ready to gallop at the weekend and therefore we'll have to put his Champion Hurdle challenge on hold until next year."

He added: "I've yet to discuss a plan with Simon Munir(owner) but Grandouet is not a horse for two and a half miles and therefore I doubt he'd go to Aintree."

More to follow. . .

Champion Hurdle, 13-03-12

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