Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

nacho libre · 24-01-2012 9:44pm

redsunset wrote: »

OK then, technically for Fantasy Island thread but move this High slightly more North west, get it to hold position with 1050 intensity for a week tapping into the coldest pool, A devilish low to our south abundant with bay of Biscay moisture and I will be happy.:D

I really don't ask for much,:)

Have we ever had a situation where the below -20 air was over Ireland?

Silly question Nacho. Too much modification would take place along the way for that to happen.

Redsunset · 24-01-2012 10:04pm

I think it did but this is a close one for now.

derekon · 24-01-2012 10:12pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Have we ever had a situation where the below -20 air was over Ireland?

Silly question Nacho. Too much modification would take place along the way for that to happen.

Hi Nacho, not a silly question at all

The closest I could see on the charts was -16oC upper level temps slap bang over Dublin and the east coast at midday on the 30th January 1947

See attached link and key in that date to verify

D

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=17&year=1947&map=3&hour=12

weatherfiend · 24-01-2012 10:34pm

Wintry showers tomorrow according to ME. Very cold and frosty next week - very vague but more +ve than normal for cold lovers................woo hoo

Kippure · 24-01-2012 10:51pm

weatherfiend wrote: »

Wintry showers tomorrow according to ME. Very cold and frosty next week - very vague but more +ve than normal for cold lovers................woo hoo

Woo Woo Wooo You know it!

Su Campu · 24-01-2012 10:52pm

The NAE and Hirlam are ridiculously wrong even at +6 hours today. Comparing their 12Z output for 18Z to actual sounding data shows they both have the them several degrees out on 950 hPa temperatures and 850 hPa theta values, with the Hirlam ridiculously wrong (see theta-e charts for it and NAE below, compared to the GFS). The GFS on the other hand is fairly bang on, so we're in the unlikely situation where the two hi-res models are performing poorly and would not appear to be reliable for Thursday's wintry weather.

Going on the GFS I would say rain and hail showers during the day, with snow above around 250 metres, possible down to 100-150 metres inland later Thursday evening. Some thunder possible in Atlantic areas too for a while.

Theta-e for 18Z today. Actual measured Valentia sounding value was around +28 °C. Hirlam around 8 degrees too low, NAE around 5 degrees too high. GFS about right.

HIRLAM

NAE

GFS

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 11:06pm

Review on the weather models this evening,

GFS

Recently it turned things for the worst not showing the shortwave doing what we wanted it to do. However on its 06z run this morning it moved over to the ECM and on the 12z it continued to improve things and agree with the ECM. So overall it does support an Easterly and a very good one in fact in terms of strength and the Atlantic looks weaker as well. It would bring snow and cold weather mainly to Eastern parts though. Its long range outlook to the end of the month and start of February shows the Easterly still in place.

ECM

After the GFS and then the UKMO changing sides it was a nervous wait to see what it would say. Overall its a good run tonight it and remains consistent and is the only one of the 3 main models not to change things over. The shortwave still there and I looked at the 12z run from yesterday at 96 hours it showed it and now its appearing at 72 hours looking very similar overall so like I said the ECM is being very consistent with this which is good news. The ECM does show an Easterly and tonight I think that's important enough. The Atlantic looks to try and take over but the ECM shows PV weaken and high pressure takes over in the longer range.

UKMO (supposedly rejected by the met office , now back to an easterly from Sunday)

Its not great and gone back to a mild settled theme for over the weekend and the start of next week. The reason for this is it doesn't show the shortwave like how the GFS and ECM are showing it. Still it could change because that was about 2 or 3 runs in a row before it showed and supported an Easterly and to suddenly change and go against the ECM and GFS at just 72 hours is a bit strange.

JMA

I've been watching it handle this set up and its not doing well it keeps changing things completely each run with no consistency at all from it. Today its not looking good again it has to much power in the Atlantic and PV as well. I mean come on? Isn't the jet stream and PV all meant to be weakening with the warming?

GEM

Supports the ECM and GFS on the Easterly idea and more importantly agrees on the shortwave at 72 hours as well. So good run from it tonight and gives us support on the Easterly.

NOGAPS

Its like JMA at the moment constantly changing things run after run and has no idea what to do. Its like the JMA just to much power in the Atlantic pushing back the Russian high. The main models have shown that this Russian high has been greatly underestimated and they keep pushing it West and making it stronger meanwhile for the likes of NOGAPS and JMA they seem to be failing to acknowledge this.

Overall the last 24 hours have shown twists and turns the GFS backed off for a while but has come back aboard for the Easterly. The ECM remains consistent over things and at least it hasn't moved over to the UKMO. The UKMO has moved over to the mild solution and shows a poor run tonight which has a lot of people angry and I agree can't we once in our life's get what we want? 3 main models to agree and some snow not much. The GEM model supports the ECM and GFS and not the UKMO. Meanwhile JMA and NOGAPS haven't got a clue on how to handle so much changes.

doccy · 24-01-2012 11:12pm

Now rumours start the UKMO has rejected it's own 12z run .. stranger and stranger

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 11:16pm

doccy wrote: »

Now rumours start the UKMO has rejected it's own 12z run .. stranger and stranger

yep from one of there own forecasters Ian ferguson,

Thats good !

delw · 24-01-2012 11:18pm

doccy wrote: »

Now rumours start the UKMO has rejected it's own 12z run .. stranger and stranger

yeah just seen that (on another forum

)
Ian Ferguson just tweeted that "UKMO has rejected it's 12z GM run, for you weather fans watching the models. So ignore if seen on web. New run brings E influence in Sunday"

TheMilkyPirate · 24-01-2012 11:21pm

Just seen that tweet, that right their my friends is the best news of the day.

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 11:35pm

The jet looks like its loosing energy

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 11:45pm

Look at the cold pool in Eastern europe , Hopefully it starts to flow towards us .

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=128142

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=128142

blackius · 24-01-2012 11:48pm

delw wrote: »

yeah just seen that (on another forum )
Ian Ferguson just tweeted that "UKMO has rejected it's 12z GM run, for you weather fans watching the models. So ignore if seen on web. New run brings E influence in Sunday"

Yeah for those of you with sky or freesat boxes,you can tune in bbc one west and see him do the forecasts in the flesh.

I'm pretty confident now that the beast from the east is coming and boy does it look like it's got some serious cold to tap into.
Expect when it gets going troughs to travel in from the east eventually.
You'll see Evelyn point them out on her maps over germany somewhere heading west

Behind each one,you'll find a deeper cold as they exit the aran islands heading into the atlantic

Thats pretty much what happened in february 1991 except this looks colder and stronger.

I may have just ramped a little bit but shur fcek it

derekon · 24-01-2012 11:53pm

blackius wrote: »

Yeah for those of you with sky or freesat boxes,you can tune in bbc one west and see him do the forecasts in the flesh.

I'm pretty confident now that the beast from the east is coming and boy does it look like it's got some serious cold to tap into.
Expect when it gets going troughs to travel in from the east eventually.
You'll see Evelyn point them out on her maps over germany somewhere heading west
Behind each one,you'll find a deeper cold as they exit the aran islands heading into the atlantic
Thats pretty much what happened in february 1991 except this looks colder and stronger.

I may have just ramped a little bit but shur fcek it

Mmmm............thought you said you would not bite? Looks like you have and have nailed your colours to the mast in terms of an easterly blast

I will have the hankies at the ready over the coming days when the models go tits up and show the Atlantic winning through, which they inevitably will....:(

D

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 11:56pm

derekon wrote: »

Mmmm............thought you said you would not bite? Looks like you have and have nailed your colours to the mast in terms of an easterly blast

I will have the hankies at the ready over the coming days when the models go tits up and show the Atlantic winning through, which they inevitably will....:(

D

Have a look at the Jet Stream chart , its stopped in its tracks , thanks to that big Scandi /Serbian high

Musicman2000 · 25-01-2012 12:00am

derekon wrote: »

Mmmm............thought you said you would not bite? Looks like you have and have nailed your colours to the mast in terms of an easterly blast

I will have the hankies at the ready over the coming days when the models go tits up and show the Atlantic winning through, which they inevitably will....:(

D

Think you better have a look at tonights UKMO fax charts, No sign of the Atlantic breaking threw yet.

H2UMrsRobinson · 25-01-2012 12:01am

I'm not playing - I just won't let myself. Me nerves won't stand it. When the flakes start a-fallin, I'll climb aboard the graupel train!

TheMilkyPirate · 25-01-2012 12:02am

blackius wrote: »

Yeah for those of you with sky or freesat boxes,you can tune in bbc one west and see him do the forecasts in the flesh.

I'm pretty confident now that the beast from the east is coming and boy does it look like it's got some serious cold to tap into.
Expect when it gets going troughs to travel in from the east eventually.
You'll see Evelyn point them out on her maps over germany somewhere heading west
Behind each one,you'll find a deeper cold as they exit the aran islands heading into the atlantic
Thats pretty much what happened in february 1991 except this looks colder and stronger.

I may have just ramped a little bit but shur fcek it

Just a tad BB! I'm biting my tongue here but that's the best day of model runs so far this winter. The new UKMO fax chart is excellent as well, A lot more in line with the ECM.

I'm very excite!!

yorlum11 · 25-01-2012 12:03am

blackius wrote: »

Yeah for those of you with sky or freesat boxes,you can tune in bbc one west and see him do the forecasts in the flesh.

I'm pretty confident now that the beast from the east is coming and boy does it look like it's got some serious cold to tap into.
Expect when it gets going troughs to travel in from the east eventually.
You'll see Evelyn point them out on her maps over germany somewhere heading west
Behind each one,you'll find a deeper cold as they exit the aran islands heading into the atlantic
Thats pretty much what happened in february 1991 except this looks colder and stronger.

I may have just ramped a little bit but shur fcek it

Thats the talk!!

blackius · 25-01-2012 12:03am

derekon wrote: »

Mmmm............thought you said you would not bite? Looks like you have and have nailed your colours to the mast in terms of an easterly blast

I will have the hankies at the ready over the coming days when the models go tits up and show the Atlantic winning through, which they inevitably will....:(

D

Trust me,it's difficult not to bite now,theres a creeping inevitability about this

talkabout · 25-01-2012 12:04am

Looking at the charts as a bit of a novice it would appear to me that its mostly very cold for eastern UK. I don't see very cold /snow for Ireland at this stage but at least it will brighten up an otherwise quiet weather forum.

delw · 25-01-2012 12:05am

derekon wrote: »

Mmmm............thought you said you would not bite? Looks like you have and have nailed your colours to the mast in terms of an easterly blast

I will have the hankies at the ready over the coming days when the models go tits up and show the Atlantic winning through, which they inevitably will....:(

D

as pete points out in above post the jet is stopped or weakened enough,also ukmo binning latest run really says alot,3 main models starting coming to agreement in reliable time frame? hopefully

Harps · 25-01-2012 12:08am

Still too much uncertainty to get excited about anything really, an interesting set up next week with the battle between east and west which could still go either way but an encouraging set of runs today. If the east wins then it'll probably be dry for most of us but frontal snow a possibility at some stage if things go our way

pistolpetes11 · 25-01-2012 12:08am

talkabout wrote: »

Looking at the charts as a bit of a novice it would appear to me that its mostly very cold for eastern UK. I don't see very cold /snow for Ireland at this stage but at least it will brighten up an otherwise quiet weather forum.

The easterly flow will see to us, specifics are not nailed down , and hopefully the block will be a little more west for us.

It could still go wrong and the block could be further east but the trend is very good

pistolpetes11 · 25-01-2012 12:11am

Harps wrote: »

Still too much uncertainty to get excited about anything really, an interesting set up next week with the battle between east and west which could still go either way but an encouraging set of runs today. If the east wins then it'll probably be dry for most of us but frontal snow a possibility at some stage if things go our way

I think a lot of streamers would come for the eastern side of the country if the east wins out .

Above normal SST's should provide enough convection with -6, -7 uppers .

Flying Fish · 25-01-2012 12:28am

Still not convinced, but fingers and toes crossed.

Bring it on :-p

BEASTERLY · 25-01-2012 12:32am

blackius wrote: »

Yeah for those of you with sky or freesat boxes,you can tune in bbc one west and see him do the forecasts in the flesh.

I'm pretty confident now that the beast from the east is coming and boy does it look like it's got some serious cold to tap into.
Expect when it gets going troughs to travel in from the east eventually.
You'll see Evelyn point them out on her maps over germany somewhere heading west
Behind each one,you'll find a deeper cold as they exit the aran islands heading into the atlantic
Thats pretty much what happened in february 1991 except this looks colder and stronger.

I may have just ramped a little bit but shur fcek it

Was this posted before you saw the 18z GFS yea? But in fairness the models always downgrade and abandon events which actually do eventually come to fruition. It is looking quite good now i must say.

*strains to contain excitement*

Min · 25-01-2012 12:40am

I was wondering, was going to post that I saw nothing too extreme at the moment.
Colder, yes but nothing to put one in bad humour at the thought of frozen pipes and hands.

TheMilkyPirate · 25-01-2012 12:43am

Min wrote: »

I was wondering, was going to post that I saw nothing too extreme at the moment.
Colder, yes but nothing to put one in bad humour at the thought of frozen pipes and hands.

All in good time min.

Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

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