Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Rebelbrowser · 24-01-2012 9:33am

This morning the UKMO and ECM models are very positive for cold kicking off in a week's time. That's getting near a reliable timeframe. The US model, the GFS, disagrees (briefly agreed yesterday) but if it comes around today and the euro models stick with current output then I'd start trying to remember where you put that sleigh last January......

I'm being prudent anyway and not losing the run of myself. I can't see any downside to having promised my four year old this morning that we'll make a snow man next week. What are the odds he'll remenber a promise like that? Anyway, the odds against the models all coming on board, cold then arriving in these parts next week, that cold reaching Ireland, that cold then producing snow and that snow falling in the snow capital of the world that is Cork must be, like, 1,000,000 to 1 so I'm safe. There's no possible way it can go wrong I'm sure you'll all agree.

DOCARCH · 24-01-2012 9:33am

I think a Tuesday 31st blizzard has my name on it! Here's hoping!!!

Although GFS (0z) has back tracked again on cold, at least to 192hrs.

munsterlegend · 24-01-2012 9:45am

Su Campu wrote: »

Did I miss the memo on this forum becoming one for quoting every post that appears on netweather? That seems to be the only content that gets posted here anymore.

Regarding Thursday, I haven't seen any of today's model runs but last night they were hinting at our usual marginal setup, with sleet at sea level and snow around 100 m+. Not sure what the hirlam is saying now, will check later.

I used always come on here in the past to see the experts take on the models. unfortunately in recent times there is no maquiladora, wolfe, deep easterly to name but a few to give their thoughts. MT due to time differences is not on for a lot of the day so for someone like me I have little choice but to go to NW.

Its a pity as this forum was superb in the past and hopefully Su you can continue to contribute your views on a regular basis.

premiercad · 24-01-2012 10:08am

Interesting to look at the 0z gfs in the shorter term, wave upon wave of adlantic systems crash against the Norway coast but the high pressure doesn't budge, further into FI the GFS then just sweeps it aside, I think for cold lovers to have any chance Europe needs to get v cold and fast, then hope the adlantic systems turn out weaker than forecast. We've noticed this winter the GFS ramps up adlantic lows at the drop of a hat if the next few runs show these lows weakening or being deflected then there's a chance the cold pool wil migrate westward

nilhg · 24-01-2012 10:09am

This mornings ECMWF is indeed a cold lovers dream with a large HP centered over Scandinavia and the Baltic steering cold air across Europe to us by early Feb, hard to see where any precip would come from though, but with the cold in place anything could happen eventually.

The GFS though goes for the complete opposite, HP over Biscay steering mild air over us, the operational run is a mild outlier in the emsembles though so it's hard to have much confidence in that outcome.

Personally I think that the odds are starting to change towards the ECM solution (though the details will almost certainly change there) but things are still very uncertain.

NB: Charts will change as the models update.

DOCARCH · 24-01-2012 10:27am

nilhg wrote: »

hard to see where any precip would come from though, but with the cold in place anything could happen eventually.

The good old Irish Sea streamer. The Irish Sea is still relatively warm (compared to last year).

blackius · 24-01-2012 10:32am

Pressures way to high for significant streamers on those maps.Flurries at best.

I'm still not biting.

Incidently those debilt ensembles have the temp rising in Debilt to +5 or 6c after feb 5th too

Although way into FI [hence not biting] you don't want that to be happening!

jo06555 · 24-01-2012 12:10pm

Here we go again all the talk of the big freeze in a weeks time and we will end up with above normal temps I bet

why do we do this to ourselves;)

DOCARCH · 24-01-2012 1:39pm

jo06555 wrote: »

Here we go again all the talk of the big freeze in a weeks time and we will end up with above normal temps I bet why do we do this to ourselves;)

It's all in the chase!

@ blackius. True. Looked back at last December (my own records) and we were getting streamers here with pressure up to 1030mb. I remember at the time people being surprised at getting so much ppn with that pressure.

Strangegravy · 24-01-2012 4:50pm

jo06555 wrote: »

Here we go again all the talk of the big freeze in a weeks time and we will end up with above normal temps I bet why do we do this to ourselves;)

But this could be the one!

Even though I want to give the model watching a break, I'm afraid if I do I'll miss that big easterly setting up, and all the drama on here that comes with it.

We seem now to be at that same place we've been several times this winter, with one model showing a decent cold blast and the other bringing back that mild muck from the Atlantic, the next couple of days will make us or break us.

Even just a couple of days of proper snow potential would do for me, just to say we at least had some bit of a winter!

Villain · 24-01-2012 5:34pm

GFS 12z downgrades the snow potential for Thursday night/Friday slightly, but its very marginal so the high res 18z later will give more info.

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 5:37pm

Was going to ask what have we done wrong snow all around us !!!

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=128074

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 5:58pm

Jesus you could not write this stuff ,

UKMO now looking brutal

Its ECMW and GFS V UKMO

UW144-21.GIF?24-17

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 6:00pm

Villain wrote: »

GFS 12z downgrades the snow potential for Thursday night/Friday slightly, but its very marginal so the high res 18z later will give more info.

Has the 12Z not got the best verification stats ?

Either way there is a battleground , I hope were not the wrong side of it !

Villain · 24-01-2012 6:01pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Has the 12Z not got the best verification stats ?

Either way there is a battleground , I hope were not the wrong side of it !

Yea its the high res I'll be looking at though which will bring us closer to the interesting time frame.

Rebelbrowser · 24-01-2012 7:30pm

The ECM is out and agreeing with GFS - both say yes to Easterly (how good for Ireland is next question). UKMO out of line - was agreeing earlier when GFS didn't. Must be better than 50/50 now for cold next week?

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 7:31pm

Good man Rebel was just about to post the chart ,

If things could just move a little more west we would increase them 50/50 chances

ECH1-120.GIF?24-0

And they do here !

ECM1-144.GIF?24-0

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 7:42pm

Is the 2m Temp anomalies on Normal average temps or just recent temps ?

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 7:46pm

A temp anomaly chart from the 24th to the 1st feb ,

A temp anomaly chart from the 02nd to the 9th Feb ,

Anyone noticing a trend ???

Redsunset · 24-01-2012 7:46pm

Don't be getting any hopes up, Still an awful lot to come right.

pistolpetes11 · 24-01-2012 7:50pm

redsunset wrote: »

Don't be getting any hopes up, Still an awful lot to come right.

Still nice to see some discussion and input on the situation ,

At best its volatile and it could all be gone in the morning , but equally its good to see on the charts.

Blizzard 2010 · 24-01-2012 8:25pm

Yep a few nailbiting outputs to come before any indication can be determined as to what is happening next week. Some snow would be welcome:(

glimmerman123 · 24-01-2012 8:36pm

Jean Byrne from ME said after the Six ONE News that high pressure will move up over Ireland for the weekend from the South West and that it will be cold and dry. So i take it we could see some severe frosts over the weekend something we haven't seen much off this Winter so far. As for next week it seems things are up in the air at the moment pardon the pun. Even ME are not sure of the forecast for next week. Let's hope the cold ramps up from the east.

TheMilkyPirate · 24-01-2012 8:43pm

Joe B:

Heh Europe. Hope you have your pipeline bills paid up.. Wouldnt want NG shut off with this coming (wk1,L, wk2,R) http://t.co/NnwSHFLj

It's been an interesting day alright, Thought sure the ECM would fall back in line with the UKMO after that runs not very good 12z, But it didn't. I've been saying this to myself for nearly 2 weeks now but surely the next day or two will put an end to this saga.

A very cold end!

weatherfiend · 24-01-2012 8:44pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

A temp anomaly chart from the 24th to the 1st feb ,

A temp anomaly chart from the 02nd to the 9th Feb ,

Anyone noticing a trend ???

Gulp!!!!

blackius · 24-01-2012 8:44pm

Heh Europe. Hope you have your pipeline bills paid up.. Wouldnt want NG shut off with this coming (wk1,L, wk2,R) http://pic.twitter.com/NnwSHFLj

TURRICAN · 24-01-2012 8:47pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Was going to ask what have we done wrong snow all around us !!!

[IMG]http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=128074[/IMG]

Mother nature is reading this forum and playing with us:)

blackius · 24-01-2012 8:50pm

Glad to see Joe Bastardi in his old humorous form!

However do be aware that those anomoly charts are whats predicted on 1 run of the gfs,this evenings 12Z.
Not alone that but it's a depiction of the far reaches of FI on the right and still also the unreliable on the left.

Given all the chopping and changing,I'm afraid the best way to look at it ,is that it's only one possible outcome.
No way is something like that cast in stone.
But obviously for ice and snow lovers,it's better to see those kind of runs than not.

Redsunset · 24-01-2012 8:53pm

OK then, technically for Fantasy Island thread but move this High slightly more North west, get it to hold position with 1050 intensity for a week tapping into the coldest pool, A devilish low to our south abundant with bay of Biscay moisture and I will be happy.:D

I really don't ask for much,:)

Nabber · 24-01-2012 9:23pm

Hopfully the timing would be right;). Need the cold to set in before the moisture from the bay of Biscay hits. Could end up with some cold rain & sleet.

Some charts being posted are looking niiiiiiiiiiiiice.

Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Comments