Price Changes 2015/2016

greedygoblin · 10-08-2015 12:56am #1

So, a new season means a welcome* return to the mayhem of trying to guess who will rise in value and who will fall. The price prediction websites usually struggle early on as they try to get to grips with the algorithm changes that FPL Towers have cooked up.

The main sites that seem to be tracking price changes this year are fiso.co.uk, fplstatistics.com and fantasyfootballfix.com. It might take a couple of weeks yet for them to get some degree of accuracy going, but usually one can guesstimate reasonably well the players who will likely take off (ala Kane last season) and who will plummet (I'm looking at you BUIB! :mad::pac:).

The first bandwagon of the year looks to be Mahrez due to his impressive performance against Sunderland, with Courtois being jettisoned at the rate of knots by players after his red card against Swansea.

Last season I chased team value early on, to the detriment of my points total (-4's became a bit of a habit). This season I think I will try to take a more conservative approach to chasing price rises. Plenty of cheap and mid-priced players look like they could hit the ground running, while many of the stars so far have failed to set the FPL world alight.

Looking at the predicted changes, nobody seems like rising or falling for a few days yet, so my tentative advice is to play it by ear and hold off on any knee-jerk reactions until the lay of the land becomes more apparent.

* May not be entirely true!

SteelyDanJalapeno · 10-08-2015 7:58am

Courtouis and Baines getting transferred out heavily

SSLguru · 10-08-2015 1:53pm

Walcott is out on his ear

jimmii · 10-08-2015 1:57pm

FPLS top 5 each way right now:

Darmian 65.4%
Mahrez 64.8%
Gomez 55.1%
Romero 49.1% I guess Courtois/DDG>Romero is a popular one
Cabaye 43.7%

De Gea -41.5%
Kozak -40.8%
Ulloa -39.5%
Bamford -36.5%
Remy -33%

Still a good few days off any changes unless the thresholds have dropped considerably.

FHFC · 10-08-2015 3:07pm

jimmii wrote: »

FPLS top 5 each way right now:

Darmian 65.4%
Mahrez 64.8%
Gomez 55.1%
Romero 49.1% I guess Courtois/DDG>Romero is a popular one
Cabaye 43.7%

De Gea -41.5%
Kozak -40.8%
Ulloa -39.5%
Bamford -36.5%
Remy -33%

Still a good few days off any changes unless the thresholds have dropped considerably.

Glad to see Walcott owners taking it easy so far.

Lemlin · 10-08-2015 3:13pm

Walcott is owned by 315,534 people by my calculation. 14,288 have transferred him out so he's only at 4.5%.

spock. · 10-08-2015 3:24pm

Lemlin wrote:

Walcott is owned by 315,534 people by my calculation. 14,288 have transferred him out so he's only at 4.5%.

That's not how it works though?
That would mean his ownership would have to fall to 0 for a price drop to occur.

FHFC · 10-08-2015 3:26pm

Lemlin wrote: »

Walcott is owned by 315,534 people by my calculation. 14,288 have transferred him out so he's only at 4.5%.

Where are you getting the 14,288 figure as a matter of interest?

Assuming thats right he needs approx 31,553 NTO to drop so would be 45% of the way to a drop. (Thats based on FISO current understanding of approximately 10% of ownership being the NTO threshold for a drop which may no longer be the case)

FPL Stats have him at 21.3%

SteelyDanJalapeno · 10-08-2015 3:27pm

IT's on the FPL site

Player Team Pos Selected Price GW Total TO
Arsenal Player information Walcott ARS MID 10.6% £9.0 1 1 14,288

FHFC · 10-08-2015 3:31pm

TiltedBrain wrote: »

IT's on the FPL site

Player Team Pos Selected Price GW Total TO
Arsenal Player information Walcott ARS MID 10.6% £9.0 1 1 14,288

Must have a closer look. Not got my head round the numbers this year.

Lemlin · 10-08-2015 3:34pm

spock. wrote: »

That's not how it works though?
That would mean his ownership would have to fall to 0 for a price drop to occur.

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 10-08-2015 3:38pm

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

What an awful situation to be in, If that happens I will have a good week as I have both Sterling and Kun, but I will be forced to transfer out Theo, even thou I want him for another week or 2.

Ziegler1988 · 10-08-2015 4:01pm

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

It takes more for each successive drop in a GW. Not sure on figures but going by last year 0.3 drops were quite rare

FHFC · 10-08-2015 4:01pm

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

I dunno. Haven't got.much of a feel for it yet but dont see 1/3 of his owners selling. Many will have other priorities, Courtois, other non starters etc. Also at quite low ownership i'd say a fair proportion of Walcott owners were aware of the risks and won't panic after one gw.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 10-08-2015 4:06pm

Looks like Courtois has lost 20% owners already

jimmii · 10-08-2015 4:09pm

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Looks like Courtois has lost 20% owners already

Wow 75k out already thats pretty crazy! Baines the only player near him on sales you do wonder what the 1381 people who bought him in were thinking!

zarquon · 10-08-2015 4:33pm

Lemlin wrote: »

MY bad. Didn't realise it was get to 10% of ownership for a drop. If someone like Sterling or Silva has a good game tonight, he could drop the 0.3 this week.

0.3 should not happen unless he sheds the majority of his ownership. One less night this week to drop due to early deadline. 10% calculation changes after the first drop. Calculations are complicated but it's close to 20% for the second drop, if things have not changed from last year based on this formula

Price Fall % = (Transfers In-transfer out) /(10% * # of teams player selected by at time of drop)(1 + # of price drops this gameweek)

Wildcard net transfers were also not accounted for in the above formula and there is no way to know the amount of NTI accreditated to wildcards so it's all an estimate by the price change sites.

I'd say there are plenty of knee jerk wildcards already in play so i wouldn't pay too much attention to the percentage for now as it will be skewed.

If FPL have changed the rules and now account wildcards transfers then walcott owners are screwed but this would be a dramatic change that would see many players plunge in heavy wildcard weeks

JIdontknow · 10-08-2015 10:40pm

Any likely risers / fallers tonight? Had a terrible week - Last thing I want is a faller as makes a difference of 0.5 player to replace him.

shineon23 · 10-08-2015 10:41pm

Just dumped Courtois there to give me 12 starters

But will have to keep an eye on Theo but I can't really see anyone jumping out at me in that price range, have 1 mill banked for Aguero/Sanchez in time.

Is Theo close to a drop based on last years estimates? at least that'd be some guideline, even if the formuale are completely changed

jimmii · 11-08-2015 12:39am

JIdontknow wrote: »

Any likely risers / fallers tonight? Had a terrible week - Last thing I want is a faller as makes a difference of 0.5 player to replace him.

No one knows if there has been formula changes but it seems unlikely we will we anything tonight unless there has been a big change. Going by last years guestimated formula no one is at 90% yet even.

jimmii · 11-08-2015 12:41am

shineon23 wrote: »

Just dumped Courtois there to give me 12 starters

But will have to keep an eye on Theo but I can't really see anyone jumping out at me in that price range, have 1 mill banked for Aguero/Sanchez in time.

Is Theo close to a drop based on last years estimates? at least that'd be some guideline, even if the formuale are completely changed

No one is close to a drop yet at all and Theo isn't even on the first page for drops so he's well off.

PARlance · 11-08-2015 8:31am

We should find out tonight if there's any messing around with prices this year.
Gomez, Darmian & Mahrez currently 102,96,94% respectively on FPL stats... So all 3 should have enough for a rise (even allowing for a nice chunk of WC's) tonight.

jimmii · 11-08-2015 9:25am

FPLS now showing them as 95.2, 84.4 & 82.5 how weird!

PARlance · 11-08-2015 4:19pm

jimmii wrote: »

FPLS now showing them as 95.2, 84.4 & 82.5 how weird!

And only back up to 102, 89, 88 now.
Mightn't be any rises tonight at all.

jimmii · 11-08-2015 4:25pm

PARlance wrote: »

And only back up to 102, 89, 88 now.
Mightn't be any rises tonight at all.

How strange maybe there is some sort of timing bug in their programme that is making it jump around? Hopefully Gomez goes up tonight and suggests that not much has changed.

hots · 11-08-2015 5:32pm

Does anyone remember the price change website that used to let you stick in your ID and it would show you the details for your current players? Didn't track prices last year and all of the sites seem to have changed appearances...

Scorpion Sting · 11-08-2015 5:49pm

hots wrote: »

Does anyone remember the price change website that used to let you stick in your ID and it would show you the details for your current players? Didn't track prices last year and all of the sites seem to have changed appearances...

TotalFPL I think you're on about.

hots · 11-08-2015 6:09pm

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

TotalFPL I think you're on about.

It was, thanks, looks like it's all over the place with +1,000% rises etc.

FHFC · 11-08-2015 6:39pm

hots wrote: »

It was, thanks, looks like it's all over the place with +1,000% rises etc.

It basically stopped being updated last year. Waste of time.

jimmii · 11-08-2015 6:42pm

hots wrote: »

It was, thanks, looks like it's all over the place with +1,000% rises etc.

All but dead now wouldn't bother with it at all unfortunately. Used to be a handy feature.

manual_man · 11-08-2015 7:34pm

If last season's anything to go by, then fplstatistics.co.uk has to be seen as the most accurate. Id be surprised if fpl changed the formula for a second season running - the first price rise(s) - possibly tonight and the picture will start to become clearer

Price Changes 2015/2016

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