The Hazards of Belief

Hotblack Desiato · 27-06-2015 1:16am

recedite wrote: »

Notice that the Greek deficit is listed at 3.5%; not too bad really

Take one data point, and ignore all the rest? They are only at 3.5% now because of all the things they'd never have done if they hadn't been made to.

The point of that graph is the past - the gross irresponsibility and fecklessness of successive Greek governments of various parties, pre-crisis.

Once the debt burden is repudiated, the economy springs back to life

This is Greece you're talking about. It's not a normal economy. It's never been a normal economy.

runs a surplus

On past form, forge the figures then run off and borrow as much as possible in order to buy the next election, more like.

people have jobs, pay taxes

:pac: This is Greece you're talking about. Where people chose to stop paying taxes because they thought a default was coming that would let them away with it.

Brian Shanahan · 27-06-2015 12:27pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The numbers are on the left, it's €bn in budget deficit/surplus...

Greece's debt is Sovereign debt from living beyond their means and not paying taxes to support that lifestyle.

There's no 'assumed debt', it's almost wholly from overspending, and under-collecting.

The US ran a budget deficit every year from 1970 to 1997 (graph from here, along with some very suspect opinionating), some deficits were extremely high even by post financial crash measures. I never heard of any body (OK, yes between Ronnie "How do you know my name?" Ray-gun and Shrub the elder, there was no real need) looking for the US to destroy any mechanism it had available to kickstart economic growth in the name of achieving a "balanced budget" (which is an impossibility when what you're being told to do is take your economy down a back alley and mug the **** out of it, simply to pay off junk bonds bought by German banks which should have been liquidated in 2008, but aren't because they're about the only thing keeping the German financial system, and economy from entering a death spiral).

The last time we had an economic crisis of this magnitude, the world's governments, lead by the US under FDR, eventually realised that government austerity under financial strain is the most idiotic thing outside sticking one's head in a meat grinder, and once they turned tack the world entered it's longest and greatest sustained period of economic growth and sharing of the general prosperity.

27-06-2015 1:17pm

Does that negate anything I said?

Recall the start of the conversation.

Brian Shanahan wrote: »

Frankly they, and us, should never have been saddled with German, UK and US junk bond derived debt which was based off essentially insolvent banks.

In fact the only reason Germany has a financial sector at the moment is because Merkel is bleeding the 'PIIGS' white.

To which I pointed out that that's not where Greek debts come from.

Pretty straightforward really.

recedite · 27-06-2015 7:36pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Economic homeopathy. Tremendous irony you mention MMT in a thread called ''The Hazards of Belief'

The Simpsons do the budget problem the easiest example, remember Homer was in charge of the bins? That was Greece, for the last 15 years.

Can you write that in English please?

There is a lot of borderline racist rubbish that people swallow about "the Greeks" such that they are lazy, feckless, cheating, work-shy, idiots lying around in the sun. But the PM and Finance minister are smarter than you think. And they also have cojones, unlike our douchbag whose only wish is to be patted on the back by Mrs Merkel. We'll see what happens.

27-06-2015 7:42pm

recedite wrote: »

Can you write that in English please?

There is a lot of borderline racist rubbish that people swallow about "the Greeks" such that they are lazy, feckless, cheating, work-shy, idiots lying around in the sun. But the PM and Finance minister are smarter than you think. And they also have cojones, unlike our douchbag whose only wish is to be patted on the back by Mrs Merkel. We'll see what happens.

7 years this has been dragging on and I'd still rather have brains than cajones.

Hotblack Desiato · 27-06-2015 8:13pm

recedite wrote: »

Can you write that in English please?

There is a lot of borderline racist rubbish that people swallow about "the Greeks" such that they are lazy, feckless, cheating, work-shy, idiots lying around in the sun. But the PM and Finance minister are smarter than you think. And they also have cojones, unlike our douchbag whose only wish is to be patted on the back by Mrs Merkel. We'll see what happens.

It's not racist it's the truth, over decades the Greek people elected a succession of corrupt populist governments of both the left and the right. All inflated public spending and government debt to excessive levels, all indulged corruption, all tolerated widespread tax evasion, all indulged in political patronage, all employed large numbers of people in non-jobs at public expense. If they wanted a better standard of government they should have voted for it. The current mob may be less corrupt but they are still deluded populists.

PopePalpatine · 27-06-2015 9:21pm

You'd wish the troika takeover would have rationalised the school patronage nonsense.

28-06-2015 12:13am

recedite wrote: »

Can you write that in English please?

Greece has had a spending problem, for a very long time. They have spent more than they've earned each and every year, for practically forever. That's unsustainable. And so when we reached this juncture the last time, they were asked to curb the spending or raise incomes, or both. The arduous path to recovery started.

Then we got the false-hope, homeopathic solutions of Syriza.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y32PWF-zxqs

The Simpsons got this spot on.

recedite wrote: »

There is a lot of borderline racist rubbish that people swallow about "the Greeks" such that they are lazy, feckless, cheating, work-shy, idiots lying around in the sun. But the PM and Finance minister are smarter than you think. And they also have cojones, unlike our douchbag whose only wish is to be patted on the back by Mrs Merkel. We'll see what happens.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/24/greece-collecting-revenue-tax-evasion

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

There's a systemic and endemic issue of casual and flagrant tax evasion in Greece. Are you telling me that's a racist statement?

'We'll see what happens' isn't good enough, and you know it We don't wait for a car accident in order to design brakes.

jank · 28-06-2015 4:48am

I think the actions of the current Greek government is a very good example to all in regards hazards of beliefs that can touch a whole country in the pseudonym of 'populist democracy'. They have now just voted to have an referendum next Sunday on a package that will no longer exist when the deadline expires on Tuesday. Perhaps these Marxists actually really really do believe in economic transubstantiation!

Brian Shanahan · 28-06-2015 2:01pm

recedite wrote: »

Can you write that in English please?

There is a lot of borderline racist rubbish that people swallow about "the Greeks" such that they are lazy, feckless, cheating, work-shy, idiots lying around in the sun.

Especially considering that even before the crisis the average Greek working week was about 10 hours longer than the German one. There is a deeply disturbing and frankly racist undercurrent in modern economic orthodoxy which states that people are poor because they are lazy.

Of course like all such assumptions in modern economic orthodoxy this has no basis in fact, because most poor people have to work damned hard just to stay afloat*. It generally tends to be rich people who work less and have shorter hours, because they either have inherited their money, or they have "earned" their wealth off the work of others.

The corrollary "Horatio Alger" fantasy (google it), that one could easily get rich off the sweat of ones one back and nothing else, is a sick joke perpetuated on the financially oppressed majorities around the world by the oligarchies at the top, in order that the extremely unfair and lopsided economic system can be perpetuated at the expense of the majority, and probably the survival of our species.

*I remember in one of the Michael Moore films where he interviewed an American single mother who worked two 40+ hour a week jobs, and had to walk five miles each day to work, yet she could still barely feed her family the cheapest food and keep the ****tiest of roofs over her family's heads. This is typical of the lives of those at the bottom, not the exception.

28-06-2015 4:24pm

Brian.

Do you retract your earlier statement about Greek debt being created by assuming the debts of insolvent banks?

The debt is Government debt, created through years of over-spending without being able to recoup enough through taxation.

There is, once more, a chronic and undeniable issue with the 'culture of taxation' or non-compliance in Greece. Feel free to debate that point if you wish.

Not sure what racism has to do with any of that, but perhaps its good to just throw a few trigger/flash words into posts to try to cover up the gaps and try and earn the last word.

recedite · 28-06-2015 5:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

The debt is Government debt, created through years of over-spending without being able to recoup enough through taxation.

Then whoever lent them the money is a fool, and deserves to lose it.
Too much money was pumped in from outside the country. It damaged Greece, as it did Ireland. Lenders believed that because Greece was in the Euro, the money would surely be repaid. That is a hazard of belief. The IMF has pushed for the ECB debt to be written off, so that their own debt has more chance of being paid, but the ECB was not falling for that again, having already written off a portion. Now the IMF wants to raise the Greek VAT rate to get some cash back, even if that kills off the tourist industry there and puts more Greeks out of work.

Like Ireland, the Greeks have re-adjusted their economy and reined in govt. spending, but even so it cannot function sustainably if taxes are being used mostly to pay off debts, and the interest on debts.
Once they repudiate the debt they will be fine.

The ECB bankers in Frankfurt think they are protecting the euro when they protect banks and investment funds from the punishing effects of bad investments. But if the foolish lenders were allowed to lose their money instead of the ECB just adding it onto already unsustainable mountains of sovereign debt in countries with fragile economies, the whole eurozone would be in a much better position now.

28-06-2015 5:29pm

recedite wrote: »

Then whoever lent them the money is a fool, and deserves to lose it...

Your opinion. not fact. I've not contended otherwise nor suggested anything regarding prescribed solutions.

Economics/Politics etc is difficult enough sometimes without people entering falsehoods into the conversation (such as where Greek's debt comes from). Lets deal in facts first.

Like Ireland, the Greeks have re-adjusted their economy and reined in govt. spending, but even so it cannot function sustainably if taxes are being used mostly to pay off debts, and the interest on debts.
Once they repudiate the debt they will be fine.

FWIW, Greek debt servicing as % of GDP is lower than several other EU countries (Ireland included).

frankbrett wrote: »

Greek debt service is less than Ireland or Italy as a percentage of GDP. It also has long maturities due to the dominance of official funding so refinancing risk is limited to the small portion of govt bonds, T bills and the amortising IMF loans. It is sustainable with a reasonable primary surplus of 2-3%

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6e5532c0-a310-11e4-ac1c-00144feab7de.html#axzz3eMyI0coe

recedite wrote: »

But if the foolish lenders were allowed to lose their money instead of the ECB just adding it onto already unsustainable mountains of sovereign debt in countries with fragile economies, the whole eurozone would be in a much better position now.

Foolish lenders have already lost plenty of money. Don't you remember the €100bn written off 4 years ago? You do realise that the foolish lenders are pension funds which you and I and others have paid into hoping to have money available to us when we retire?

Again, lets try and stick to facts.

Brian Shanahan · 28-06-2015 5:44pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Brian.

<waffle>

Fine, continue your irrational and religious belief in modern economic orthodoxies. It's no skin off my nose, even though it will probably severely hurt you.

28-06-2015 5:48pm

Brian Shanahan wrote: »

Fine, continue your irrational and religious belief in modern economic orthodoxies. It's no skin off my nose, even though it will probably severely hurt you.

I appreciate the concern, you will of course note that the issue we have here is a historical & factual one and nothing to do with economic ideologies.

You were misrepresenting history. I called you up on it. Happy to take you through it once more if you really need it.

recedite · 28-06-2015 6:41pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Foolish lenders have already lost plenty of money. Don't you remember the €100bn written off 4 years ago? You do realise that the foolish lenders are pension funds which you and I and others have paid into hoping to have money available to us when we retire?
Again, lets try and stick to facts.

I did specifically mention that ECB had already written off a portion.

And expect Christine Lagarde of the IMF to come out with similarly tearful appeals to all of us. "Its not my money they are defaulting on, it belongs to all of us".

But sadly when these guys make billions in profit, its not "all of us" who profit. Its "all of us" who lose, because that money comes straight out of the exchequer. That means less hospital beds, less schools, and more taxes. Remember the introduction of USC?

When they do lose, they should at least have the decency to suck it up.

28-06-2015 7:02pm

Again, I'm not having the conversation you're trying to have.

I'm sticking to pointing out that Greece were ultimately wholly responsible for their own debts. Fact checking perhaps.

As an aside, it might be worth checking the IMF member states. Do you believe Eritrean taxes should pay for Greek negligence?

Brian Shanahan · 30-06-2015 6:24pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I appreciate the concern, you will of course note that the issue we have here is a historical & factual one and nothing to do with economic ideologies.

You were misrepresenting history. I called you up on it. Happy to take you through it once more if you really need it.

Emmet, you're championing a repeatedly discredited economic conjecture, and yet you accuse me of twisting historical fact?

Fine, I have no time for such nonsense.

30-06-2015 7:10pm

Brian Shanahan wrote: »

Emmet, you're championing a repeatedly discredited economic conjecture, and yet you accuse me of twisting historical fact?

Fine, I have no time for such nonsense.

Pray do tell what you're accusing me of?

Find the post in this thread to back it up there when you get the time.

As far as I can see, I've championed nothing but fact.

silverharp · 01-07-2015 8:29am

today we have some orthodox Jews behaving a bit special

http://www.mediaite.com/online/orthodox-jews-cant-protest-gay-pride-parade-hire-mexicans-instead/

A group of Orthodox Jews hired Mexican day laborers to dress in traditional Jewish garb and protest against the New York City gay pride parade Sunday.

A New York Times reporter noticed a group of men wearing the fringed Jewish prayer garments and holding up antigay signs in a barricade by the parade. Although the men were holding signs reading “Judaism prohibits homosexuality” with the logo of the Jewish Political Action Committee, the men were plainly Hispanic.

“They were Mexican laborers, protesting because they were paid to protest,” the Times reported, based on an admission from one of the protesters.

A (actually Jewish) member of the political action committee readily admitted they had paid the protesters, and claimed they were filling in for younger men who would normally protest. “The rabbis said that the yeshiva boys shouldn’t come out for this because of what they would see at the parade,” he said.

2A1E029F00000578-3144933-Shocking_Mexican_laborers_were_paid_to_wear_traditional_Jewish_p-m-4_1435695736786.jpg

Thargor · 01-07-2015 10:33am

Lol, that would have made a perfect Onion article.

BlaasForRafa · 01-07-2015 2:47pm

I always knew that Ramadan was one of the stupider religious festivals but this article which shows the experience in Ireland http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/religion-and-beliefs/long-days-means-it-isn-t-easy-being-muslim-in-ireland-1.2267363?ref=yfp spells it out bluntly.

Fancy fasting for 20 hours a day? No food, no water, no smoking, no sex, and broken sleep. That is the daily lot, from sunrise to sunset, of Muslims in Ireland since Thursday, June 18th. It will continue until July 18th.

Ramadan at this time of year includes our longest day, as it will next year, and in 2017. It is the ninth month of the 12-month Islamic calendar which is based on the lunar cycle and has 354 days.

On top of the abstinence there is prayer five times a day, at 2.52am, 1.28pm, 5.54pm, 9.57pm (sunset) and 11.27pm on Friday last.

Given that Ireland is in a higher latitude than the lands where the religion originated it means that having ramadan when the days are so long 4am dawn to 10pm dusk and forcing it's followers not to eat or hydrate for 18 hours a day is just insane. Also not feeding or hydrating a 9 year old borders at the very least on neglect if not abuse but then officialdom won't dare criticise the religion of peace for it's bizarre practices.

No wonder muslims are always pissed off during this month (outrageous generalization alert! :pac:)

silverharp · 01-07-2015 5:41pm

^^^

I did see some reference that muslims could use the times of the nearest muslim majority country. However if they havnt received the memo keep stumm :pac:

BlaasForRafa · 01-07-2015 6:38pm

^ Ah now that's just cheating!

Nodin · 01-07-2015 7:05pm

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

I always knew that Ramadan was one of the stupider religious festivals but this article which shows the experience in Ireland http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/religion-and-beliefs/long-days-means-it-isn-t-easy-being-muslim-in-ireland-1.2267363?ref=yfp spells it out bluntly.

Given that Ireland is in a higher latitude than the lands where the religion originated it means that having ramadan when the days are so long 4am dawn to 10pm dusk and forcing it's followers not to eat or hydrate for 18 hours a day is just insane. Also not feeding or hydrating a 9 year old borders at the very least on neglect if not abuse but then officialdom won't dare criticise the religion of peace for it's bizarre practices.

No wonder muslims are always pissed off during this month (outrageous generalization alert! :pac:)

I thought they used sun up and sundown at Mecca....shows ye what I know.

recedite · 01-07-2015 9:37pm

Here's the Ramadan calendar for UK.
As Dublin is on similar latitude to Liverpool, the Liverpool times would be appropriate for most parts of Ireland.

Suhoor is the pre dawn meal, then its the fast time, and then Iftar is the next meal, at dusk.
So for today, we have fasting between 2.37 am and 9.44pm. Around 19 hours :eek:

I really hope they aren't putting their kids through that.

obplayer · 01-07-2015 10:44pm

robindch · 02-07-2015 6:55am

Kerry running out of priests:

http://www.killarneytoday.com/shortage-of-priests-causes-concern/

Bishop Browne wrote:

For many years now our priests have been greatly challenged to find ways of coping with the extra workload involved in having less and less priests, and then to adjust their lives to the full implications of these new ways. At every stage they are supported by the thousands of people in our diocese who are wholeheartedly involved in their own parish and many at pastoral area and diocesan level as well.

Seems to be running out of grammar as well.

PopePalpatine · 02-07-2015 10:08am

Fewer and fewer priests, as Stannis would say.

recedite · 02-07-2015 12:08pm

the extra workload involved in having less and less priests

Of course that assumes that the workload remains the same.
If business for them is also declining, then the workload gets fewer.

The Hazards of Belief

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