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Grandouet

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12357…21

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    #122
    NewApproach
    Registered Users Posts: 2,185 ✭✭✭NewApproach


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Apologises, turnover. Slip of the keyboard

    No need to apologise, I agree with you entirely, just trying to stop you bruising your head from banging it against the wall!


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    #123
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    banghead.gif


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    #124
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    I just have one point on this without getting dragged into it.

    Someone posted this notion of tossing coins and roulette wheels, which has no relevance what so ever to horse racing and it keeps being brought up. Coins and roulette wheels have no form, fitness, optimum trip, favourable ground, jockey etc....


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    #125
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    mdwexford wrote: »
    I suggest you look into what prices take up what percentages of the market to work out how often the horse has to win for you to break even.

    For anyone who isn't sure how to calculate the probability of a horse using the bookies prices it's easy enough.

    Using a horse at 2/1 as an example, the :

    For bookies odds:
    Divide the numerator(2) by the denominator (1) and add 1. This gives you 3 which is the betfair odds. If you divide the answer (3) into 100, this horses chances of winning the race are 33.33%.

    Betfair/ Betdaq odds:
    Divide 3 into 100, this gives you 33.33%

    If you do this for all the horses in the race you will probably get around 130% this includes the bookies over round.

    I am thinking of starting a log using probability to take a short priced favourite with any amount of horses.

    Say if the favourite is 1/1, his chance is 50%, ignoring the over round this means the field has a 50% chance of winning so if you take 2 4/1 shots against the favourite you have 40% chance of having the winner.

    Using this example you could put a tenner to win on both 4/1 shots and if either win you turn a profit of €30.

    I will trial it first, obviously the bigger priced horses you take against the favourite the lower the chance of finding the winner but the bigger the returns.


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    #126
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,354 ✭✭✭Morgans


    It does. Tossing a coin is 50% chance.

    If you think your horse has a 50% chance of winning (after you take form, ground, fitness, trip etc), then 6/4 is a good price, and 4/6 is a bad price.

    It is the fundamentals.

    You dont know you are doing the 50% calculation in your head, but that is what you are doing. You cant bet on a horse with 100% chance of winning.


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    #127
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    ft9 wrote: »
    Someone posted this notion of tossing coins and roulette wheels, which has no relevance what so ever to horse racing and it keeps being brought up. Coins and roulette wheels have no form, fitness, optimum trip, favourable ground, jockey etc....

    It's merely used as an example to back up the main point about value

    If the coin/wheel is fair the exact probabilities are known. This is not the case with horses, you can never know the exact probability a horse will win a particular race


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    #128
    NewApproach
    Registered Users Posts: 2,185 ✭✭✭NewApproach


    ft9 wrote: »
    I just have one point on this without getting dragged into it.

    Someone posted this notion of tossing coins and roulette wheels, which has no relevance what so ever to horse racing and it keeps being brought up. Coins and roulette wheels have no form, fitness, optimum trip, favourable ground, jockey etc....

    Bookmakers employ odds compilers, who factor these any many other parameters into the price. So that point is easily nullified.


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    #129
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Lol Huntley is worse than that clown in the Simonsig thread.

    He is trying to argue against mathematical FACT

    Lol.

    Credibility

    Gone

    Forever.

    Lol


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    #130
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    I'm not getting into it. Gonna be a long 2 months...


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    #131
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    hucklebuck wrote: »

    Using a horse at 2/1 as an example, the :

    Your method is 100% correct but I find it easier and less time consuming to use decimal odds

    2/1 = 3.0, 1/3.0 = 33.33%

    Similarly

    Evs = 2.0, 1/2.0 = 50%
    6/4 = 2.5, 1/2.5 = 40%
    etc
    etc


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    #132
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    For anyone who isn't sure how to calculate the probability of a horse using the bookies prices it's easy enough.

    Using a horse at 2/1 as an example, the :

    For bookies odds:
    Divide the numerator(2) by the denominator (1) and add 1. This gives you 3 which is the betfair odds. If you divide the answer (3) into 100, this horses chances of winning the race are 33.33%.

    Betfair/ Betdaq odds:
    Divide 3 into 100, this gives you 33.33%

    If you do this for all the horses in the race you will probably get around 130% this includes the bookies over round.

    I am thinking of starting a log using probability to take a short priced favourite with any amount of horses.

    Say if the favourite is 1/1, his chance is 50%, ignoring the over round this means the field has a 50% chance of winning so if you take 2 4/1 shots against the favourite you have 40% chance of having the winner.

    Using this example you could put a tenner to win on both 4/1 shots and if either win you turn a profit of €30.

    I will trial it first, obviously the bigger priced horses you take against the favourite the lower the chance of finding the winner but the bigger the returns.

    I'd follow that log with interest HB, it would be interesting and informative. I still want to learn.
    DO IT !!!


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    #133
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Btw possibly a sticky or a split thread on the numbers/probability/odds discussions......


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    #134
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Did you not hear he had such a long mathematical argument with Stephen Hawking that Stephen Hawkings batteries ran out and Huntley called him an idiot for not having another battery with him.


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    #135
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Btw possibly a sticky or a split thread on the numbers/probability/odds discussions......

    How about stickying Huntleys posts in this thread for people to beat him with every time he tries to belittle posters in other threads.


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    #136
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Your method is 100% correct but I find it easier and less time consuming to use decimal odds

    2/1 = 3.0, 1/3.0 = 33.33%

    Similarly

    Evs = 2.0, 1/2.0 = 50%
    6/4 = 2.5, 1/2.5 = 40%
    etc
    etc

    I know, it was a guide, I did have fractional and decimal in as examples, Mr nitpicker. ;)


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    #137
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    Lol Huntley is worse than that clown in the Simonsig thread.

    He is trying to argue against mathematical FACT

    Lol.

    Credibility

    Gone

    Forever.

    Lol

    This gonna be good :D

    Mj-thriller-popcorn-o.gif


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    #138
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    How about stickying Huntleys posts in this thread for people to beat him with every time he tries to belittle posters in other threads.

    That would work except he is always right :rolleyes:


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    #139
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Slattsy wrote: »
    This gonna be good :D

    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRC_OSA_dWmINoAIK-nxiJguF32Bt0Sddw3kEEaU3Ee_9IKkHJgPDFyxiSb-A

    That looks like a black Michael Jackson.


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    #140
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    Lol Huntley is worse than that clown in the Simonsig thread.

    He is trying to argue against mathematical FACT

    Lol.

    Credibility

    Gone

    Forever.

    Lol

    It's comical the way you pop your fat skull in when the brigade are in full flow.

    Where is the mathematical fact that states value is the most fundamental aspect of gambling? Amongst all the clueless masses scampering to their computers to get a dig in nobody has acknowledged that without winning selections ones perception of value is totally redundant.

    My credibility to strangers doesn't bother me, I make enough money from this game to keep me content and have proven that on here aswell. I only belittle people who make stupid comments, frequently you.


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    #141
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    That looks like a black Michael Jackson.

    Its Bruno Mars.


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    #142
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Huntley wrote: »
    This is one of the many illusions that is simply a pretence for many who gamble to seem knowledgeable.

    Value has no importance



    No I gamble to win money, and am fortunately very content with my ability to do so.

    picking winning selections is the most fundamental aspect of successful gambling, not value as you seem to think.
    Huntley wrote: »
    Your attempt to seem totally in the know about gambling is inept at best. There is no mathematical fact which states that value is the most fundamental aspect to successful gambling.

    This "mathematical fact" is a myth that piss poor gamblers like yourself cling onto in the hope of actually making some money some day.

    These are my favourite.

    The Colonel is one of the shrewdest (but nittiest) gamblers I know, and any random can tell that from his posts.

    Lol out loud


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    #143
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    Huntley wrote: »
    It's comical the way you pop your fat skull in when the brigade are in full flow.

    Where is the mathematical fact that states value is the most fundamental aspect of gambling? Amongst all the clueless masses scampering to their computers to get a dig in nobody has acknowledged that without winning selections ones perception of value is totally redundant.

    My credibility to strangers doesn't bother me, I make enough money from this game to keep me content and have proven that on here aswell. I only belittle people who make stupid comments, frequently you.

    I used to pay some small bit of notice to you, now I can't stop laughing. You go make your money pal.

    I make stupid comments, lol, shall I quote a few more from you.

    Lol


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    #144
    Colonel Sanders
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,669 ✭✭✭Colonel Sanders


    Huntley wrote: »
    I only belittle people who make stupid comments, frequently you.

    Time to belittle yourself....


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    #145
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    How about stickying Huntleys posts in this thread for people to beat him with every time he tries to belittle posters in other threads.
    RichieLawlor wrote: »
    Lol Huntley is worse than that clown in the Simonsig thread.

    He is trying to argue against mathematical FACT

    Lol.

    Credibility

    Gone

    Forever.

    Lol

    You should take a leaf out of your own book.
    hucklebuck wrote: »
    For anyone who isn't sure how to calculate the probability of a horse using the bookies prices it's easy enough.

    Using a horse at 2/1 as an example, the :

    For bookies odds:
    Divide the numerator(2) by the denominator (1) and add 1. This gives you 3 which is the betfair odds. If you divide the answer (3) into 100, this horses chances of winning the race are 33.33%.

    Betfair/ Betdaq odds:
    Divide 3 into 100, this gives you 33.33%

    If you do this for all the horses in the race you will probably get around 130% this includes the bookies over round.

    I am thinking of starting a log using probability to take a short priced favourite with any amount of horses.

    Say if the favourite is 1/1, his chance is 50%, ignoring the over round this means the field has a 50% chance of winning so if you take 2 4/1 shots against the favourite you have 40% chance of having the winner.

    Using this example you could put a tenner to win on both 4/1 shots and if either win you turn a profit of €30.

    I will trial it first, obviously the bigger priced horses you take against the favourite the lower the chance of finding the winner but the bigger the returns.

    You should do this log, I'm sure most people here would be interested in it and may learn from it too. I'm sure Huntley will be getting his log back in action shortly, see who has the highest ROI.


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    #146
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    ft9 wrote: »
    You should take a leaf out of your own book.



    You should do this log, I'm sure most people here would be interested in it and may learn from it too. I'm sure Huntley will be getting his log back in action shortly, see who has the highest ROI.

    I know I should listen to my own advice but this is such a great day for the forum.

    I'm gonna have my 7 year old come on and explain the maths of it to Huntley


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    #147
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    I think we all need to go on a bonding session in preparation for Cheltenham! I'd say it would turn into a massacre.


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    #148
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    ft9 wrote: »
    I think we all need to go on a bonding session in preparation for Cheltenham! I'd say it would turn into a massacre.

    Lol how fun would that be


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    #149
    Arctic89
    Registered Users Posts: 327 ✭✭Arctic89


    hucklebuck wrote: »
    For anyone who isn't sure how to calculate the probability of a horse using the bookies prices it's easy enough.

    Using a horse at 2/1 as an example, the :

    For bookies odds:
    Divide the numerator(2) by the denominator (1) and add 1. This gives you 3 which is the betfair odds. If you divide the answer (3) into 100, this horses chances of winning the race are 33.33%.

    Betfair/ Betdaq odds:
    Divide 3 into 100, this gives you 33.33%

    If you do this for all the horses in the race you will probably get around 130% this includes the bookies over round.

    I am thinking of starting a log using probability to take a short priced favourite with any amount of horses.

    Say if the favourite is 1/1, his chance is 50%, ignoring the over round this means the field has a 50% chance of winning so if you take 2 4/1 shots against the favourite you have 40% chance of having the winner.

    Using this example you could put a tenner to win on both 4/1 shots and if either win you turn a profit of €30.

    I will trial it first, obviously the bigger priced horses you take against the favourite the lower the chance of finding the winner but the bigger the returns.

    Another +1 for the log!


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    #150
    ft9
    Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    I'm just hoping Overturn doesn't fall tomorrow, that would be the ultimate week for you.


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    #151
    RichieLawlor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,873 ✭✭✭RichieLawlor


    ft9 wrote: »
    I'm just hoping Overturn doesn't fall tomorrow, that would be the ultimate week for you.

    I wouldn't like to see him fall, I hope he laps the others, make a price for SS


This discussion has been closed.
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