Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)

grapeape wrote: »

Some good points here mostly aimed at America but out of the 10 points i could see at least 8 happen here if not all 10
http://offgridsurvival.com/shtfprepperthreats/

Points one through six, particularly this bit:

4. Gangs & Raiders If things go bad, there will likely be more people who mean to do you harm than there will be people who are prepared. This is something that you must accept and learn to deal with. The fact is, most people have no idea what it really takes to survive and once their safety net is removed they will become increasingly desperate and unpredictable.

are not based on real social behaviour during emergencies. Yes criminal gangs will continue to do criminal things, areas of economic inequality will get worse temporarily, but the 99.99% of the population not given to random violence isn't going to whip out the leather chaps and start chaining one another to burning cars.

Its a very American article to be honest, based more on media dramatisation than a cool headed look at the facts. They're more likely to gun down innocents that blunder into their bunker zones than protect themselves from any realistic danger, setting themselves up on a hair trigger.

With that said I acknowledge that in a scenario of long term deprivation things might get nasty, but there is one and only one such scenario I can come up with - famine in a developed country. Its unheard of and considered by most to be fairly impossible, so obviously no studies exist on it.

Its considered impossible for a good reason - when you hear people talk about subsidies for farmers in the EU and US, wine lakes and bread mountains, CAP, that's all about protecting the local food supply. These are strategic policies so we don't become dependent for our food on places far away, not economic policies purely for the benefit of farmers.

Something that would suddenly and severely disrupt local food supplies would also almost certainly kill off large sections of the population in the process. A plague for example, so you wouldn't be short of much.

If some new hyperdeadly "potato blight" that affected all vegetable stocks of all sorts and all livestock of every breed including fish arose, itself ludicrously low in terms of possibility, then there might be a problem. Its about as likely as meteorites simultaneously hitting every city in the world by sheer chance however.

Oil, that which brings the food from field to table, is not going to vanish overnight. They have a very clear idea how much is left in the ground, and alternate sources even if that magically vanishes. The increasing push towards electric vehicles means even that will soon cease to be a problem.

However, if a high altitude nuke is set off, an EMP bomb, that might interrupt the food supply for a significant time, and would be perhaps the only realistic scenario where famine might become an issue.

Interesting video here on EMP attacks:

bonniebede wrote: »

But..
1. It's smart to have both... reader and books. Why not?

I've already mentioned I do have a miniature SAS Survival Guide packed. As for why not generally, books are really heavy and bulky. Any comprehensive amount of them will quickly end up costing space and energy that could have been better used.

bonniebede wrote: »

2. If the disaster is that big where are you leaving for? Sure you need your library at your bug out location, but presumably one hopes to be able to stock that in advance.

If someone has a dry and well maintained BOL where they can keep a library more power to them, but most people won't have that luxury.

bonniebede wrote: »

3. Libraries are the way we have managed and transmitted civilsation for the last several millenia, and I know you are invested in that idea.:)

Indeed, but there's a reason we aren't using papyrus scrolls any more. Something better superceded them. Ereaders are better in some ways, worse in others, but for the purposes of the discussion they present advantages that can't be ignored.

bonniebede wrote: »

So not either/or but both/and. Especially as putting everythng onto a reader, which I think is a great job, also means putting all your knowledge into one device which could get lost or damaged.

The same applies for books, unless you are keeping multiple copies of the one book in different locations. Also, ereaders aren't likely to be scavenged for kindling.

bonniebede wrote: »

further, some advice is necessary in the immediate short term, like how to purify water from various sources, and so on. This is the kind of info that is absolutely necessary to get through that bottleneck, so why not have it in multiply redundant ways.

I do, the core information anyway. That I can carry immensely more information at very little cost is to my mind a big bonus.

bonniebede wrote: »

what if i die of the plague, and my loved ones are relying on whatever I prepped and left behind?

They can't read an ereader?

I've nothing against electronics generally, in the great outdoors or any other place. They are a tool like any tool, and shouldn't be excluded from BOBs just because they can't be fixed with a wrench and sharpening stone.

bonniebede wrote: »

Finally, while I agree with you in your various observations about how people are as likely, if not more likely to pull together rather than turn into psycho nut gangs of roaming bandits, when there is no law enforcement back up it only takes one or two people to be an immediate threat to me. It is no consolation that the majority of people are being decent and helping their neighbour if the one pyscho has decided to knock on my door.

After all, we currently have as much law enforcement and army as we can afford, and live in a reasonably decent society, but I still have to take precautions to protect myself from random assaults/muggings. (not so worried about burglary its only stuff) So why not be prepared for a scenario which might not get much worse, but certainly would not be better.

Actually the research I linked to in your "Happy Easter" thread indicates that it does in fact get better. People in general tend to help one another far more than usual. The lone psycho is a valid issue, but its as much of an issue in everyday life. My advice wouldn't be to bunker up but to go out and help others in the community. That doesn't mean handing out your food like sweets at Halloween, but joining in will improve survival chances.

Incidentally the other side of the law enforcement coin is that criminals can often act with impunity because responsible citizens are more afraid of the law than the criminals. Take that away and the bad guys might find themselves in deep trouble very quickly.

All through history the king or lord or baron has been the biggest scumbag in the area who killed all opposition and intimidated the local community with his armed thugs. Civilised society has controlled this but only in ths last century or so. In some parts of africa, asia and the middle east the thugs still hold power.

In any collapse of society the ones who rise to local "leadership" will be the elements who currently think drive by shootings are an acceptable business strategy or who think slash hooks are standard issue at funerals. Ironically among the first victims of the new local lords will be the wealthy lawyers and judges who currently defend their rights. When these boyos start looking for fancy houses and flash cars they wont care about the legal arguments of the current owners.

Doc Ruby wrote: »

Sure, so avoid rough areas if things get wild.

I work in the "posh" parts of Dublin and the "rough" parts and to be honest lately there isnt a hell of a difference lately One of our lads got stabbed in what we classed a year ago as a handy quiet area I myself have been out injured for the last 6 months and there is no sign of an end to it as yet


Interesting, have you a link handy, I'd like a read. The more of a detailed idea of how people are going to respond in various emergencies we have, obviously the better prepared we will be.

Ill have a look for the link again it was also featured on doomsday preppers on Natgeo channel some good ideas on that show things i didnt know or would have thought about


This isn't what happens, typically.

In my personal opinion the way i look at things is nothing like this has happened here (since the english rule) and the Irish are really too laid back so there is no typically here as we dont know how people will act. So i look at it as prepare for the worst anything else is a bonus

Doc Ruby wrote: »

What, and the other places where disasters happened were regular war zones were they? I'm not talking about my opinion or yours, I'm talking about what historically has happened. Not what we see on youtube, not what we see in disaster movies, thats just entertainment.


Im talking about this country not the rest of Europe we have been very lucky in the fact that we havent as yet got major hurricanes earth quakes the last war zone we had was english rule nearly 100 years ago (apart from the north but again english rule)

bonniebede wrote: »

3 -2- 1 Go!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9348581/Bird-flu-pandemic-just-three-mutations-away-scientists-show.html

you should go into college microbiology/ virology lecture and its that every second sentence. virologists are complete drama queens!

its all Aids-becoming-airborne this drug-resistant-malaria that

it makes it very easy to remember and fun too!

Mother nature still kicks like a mule, I see.

(Reuters) - More than 1.4 million people from Illinois to Virginia remained without power Tuesday morning after the weekend's violent storms, and a heat wave continued to bake much of the region, the regional power companies said. The power companies warned some customers could be without power to run their air conditioners for the rest of the week in the worst hit areas.

High temperatures across the region were expected to reach the 90s Fahrenheit (32 Celsius) over the next several days, according to AccuWeather.com.
The storms crossed the Eastern United States with heavy rain, hail and winds reaching 80 miles per hour starting Friday night, leaving more than 3 million homes and businesses without the power, according to a federal energy report.

The storms also claimed at least 15 lives, mostly from falling trees and branches across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states.

American Electric Power Co Inc of Ohio said Tuesday morning that crews were working to restore power to 357,000 customers in Virginia and West Virginia; 298,000 in Ohio; 32,000 in Indiana; and 14,000 in Kentucky.

FirstEnergy Corp of Ohio said it had 216,000 customers out in its five-state service area of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey. That was down from about the initial 566,000 affected by the storms.

Illinois-based Exelon Corp said its Baltimore Gas & Electric (BG&E) unit in Maryland had about 170,000 customers out, down from about 600,000 homes and businesses affected.

Virginia power company Dominion Resources Inc said it still had more than 170,000 customers without electricity in its Virginia and North Carolina service areas.

Washington, D.C.-based Pepco Holdings Inc said it had more than 116,000 customers without power in the District of Columbia and Maryland and more than 69,000 out in New Jersey.

This is something I could see happening in Ireland as the weather gets weirder year on year.

http://offgridsurvival.com/survivalistsconspiracytheoriststhreattocountry/

We are now a
Terrorist Threat:eek::eek::eek: