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Grand National 2012

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    #152
    Rhinestone Cowboy
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭Rhinestone Cowboy


    mountai wrote: »
    Anyone got an opinion (except Huntley) on Alfa Beat ? . This horse was . bought with the GN in mind last year and although last two runs would"nt inspire confidence , distance wont be a problem. He has won on all types of ground. Have searched for Jockey, but cant find who. At 33/1 could be worth a punt .

    I liked the way alfa beats went about his business in the kerry national but the shark hasnt had a winner in 2012. That would put me off. Geraghty is on shakalaka so maybe Andrew Mac ?


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    #153
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Colonel Sanders wrote: »
    Is Giles Cross' form not all on soft/heavy ground?
    Denis O Regan says he will stay on good ground,he is in super form.


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    #154
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    Giles Cross has emptied after 30 furlongs on two occasions.

    This theory that he will find enough in the tank to go another 6 furlongs on good ground is beyond speculative. He simply won't stay.


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    #155
    tonic wine
    Registered Users Posts: 1,099 ✭✭✭tonic wine


    ft9 wrote: »
    Killyglen

    I hope he wins as he's my main bet of the national. He looked to be going really well last year before falling. Has a nice weight, which is off a 4/5lb lower mark this year.

    Also have treacle after his race in the hennessy, and a few quid on rare bob @ 60's.


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    #156
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Huntley wrote: »
    Giles Cross has emptied after 30 furlongs on two occasions.

    This theory that he will find enough in the tank to go another 6 furlongs on good ground is beyond speculative. He simply won't stay.
    Where you at Cheltenham fool when I asked you for a challenged.You shut up .very ,very right.


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    #157
    Huntley
    Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭Huntley


    sting60 wrote: »
    Where you at Cheltenham fool when I asked you for a challenged.You shut up .very ,very right.

    I said I would take you up on your challenge if there was a cash incentive. You were the one who refused to respond. Would you like me to drag up the quotes for you?

    Your sentences are getting increasingly difficult to understand but as I said the other day, we will see who the fool is in a week.

    It is really poor analysis on your part that you can only resort to personal insults when I put forward a negative angle on your selection. Simply saying "back it" is as productive as picking a horse because of the colour of his silks. Why don't you actually give some analysis why you think he will win?


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    #158
    sting60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,340 ✭✭✭sting60


    Huntley wrote: »
    I said I would take you up on your challenge if there was a cash incentive. You were the one who refused to respond. Would you like me to drag up the quotes for you?

    Your sentences are getting increasingly difficult to understand but as I said the other day, we will see who the fool is in a week.

    It is really poor analysis on your part that you can only resort to personal insults when I put forward a negative angle on your selection. Simply saying "back it" is as productive as picking a horse because of the colour of his silks. Why don't you actually give some analysis why you think he will win?
    Ok


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    #159
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    sting60 wrote: »
    Where you at Cheltenham fool when I asked you for a challenged.You shut up .very ,very right.

    Less gibberish and abusive posts Sting, you have declined every offer Huntey has made so either man up or shut up.

    Trying to decide between Organised Confusion and Seabass for my money, Seabass if he stays must have a decent chance and Organised Confusion looks to have a decent mark and will stay the trip.

    Chances are both will have she jockeys and would love to see either win a race of this calibre, yes I know Nina won the Irish on Organised before you say it.

    On Alfa Beat, Geraghty was very sweet on him for the National after his Kerry National win but if he is riding something else then that would be enough to put me off. Having said that I didn't back Une Artiste as I figured if Geraghty thinks Soliwery was better then I would leave it be.


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    #160
    finbarrk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,411 ✭✭✭finbarrk


    Ruby rides On His Own. Down to 12/1 now.


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    #161
    mountai
    Registered Users Posts: 952 ✭✭✭mountai


    Shark Hanlon believes Alfa Beat could be the forgotten horse in the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree.
    Twice a winner of the Kerry National, the eight-year-old has only been seen twice since winning the second of those in September. He failed to complete at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse, but Hanlon has valid excuses.
    "My horses were out of form for a large part of the season. But I had a point-to-point winner yesterday so I'm getting a bit of confidence back. I've booked Davy Russell which is a bonus as he's won on him before and long as the ground is good he'll run a big race," Hanlon said.
    "At Leopardstown a horse came across him and clipped heels which gave him no chance, and the last day because my horses were running badly I told Andrew (McNamara) to pull him up if he wasn't going to win as it was bad ground and he hates it so he didn't have a hard race.
    "Not many horses win two Kerry Nationals and he'll stay as he was fourth in the four-miler at Cheltenham He worked lovely on Saturday and he'll do another bit this week. Fingers crossed he runs a nice race but you need that luck."


    Just had 50 E/W at 33/1 . Hope the Shark is telling the truth !!!


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    #162
    Funk It
    Registered Users Posts: 663 ✭✭✭Funk It


    Was hoping that Ruby Walsh would go on Seabass, but there must be method to him choosing On His Own as he would only ride on a horse he would be more confident on. Still worth a pop at Seabass anyways, even if it is Katie and not Ruby riding it. Don't know a whole lot about Alfa Beat, but at 33/1 could be another good option for an E/W


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    #163
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    I am glad Ruby is not riding Seabass, I would be more confident with Katie on board. For me Ruby looks like he is just going through the motions and his mind is elsewhere.

    I am tempted by Alfa Beat but Hanlon coming out with this would nearly turn me off and Geraghty has abandoned him too. Hanlons strike rate wouldn't inspire confidence either, he is at 9.84% over the last 12 months but I would suggest his last 6 months is even lower, not sure where to find this.


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    #164
    ipitydafool
    Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭ipitydafool


    Yeah I wouldnt read too much into Ruby not riding Seabass. Id say Whylie put his foot down with getting Ruby to ride his horse especially after he was already after committing to his other horse Prince de Beauchene before it was pulled out.


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    #165
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Weather looks unsettled this week in Liverpool with some rain forcast everyday I wonder will there be enough to turn the ground soft.


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    #166
    Pj!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,783 ✭✭✭Pj!


    robbie1977 wrote: »
    Weather looks unsettled this week in Liverpool with some rain forcast everyday I wonder will there be enough to turn the ground soft.

    It's already there. They reported it 'Soft, Good to Soft in places' today.


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    #167
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    If I had to dip in again I'd go for Le Beau Bai ahead of Giles Cross. He'd need even more rain to keep up with them though.


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    #168
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Nulty wrote: »
    If I had to dip in again I'd go for Le Beau Bai ahead of Giles Cross. He'd need even more rain to keep up with them though.


    He could be worth a bet at 40/1.

    Treacle will like the bit of rain aswell.


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    #169
    thebison
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 492 ✭✭thebison


    Seen Setantabet are paying out 6 places..noice :)

    Any other decent MBS/offers for the GN yet?
    We're paying out 6 places in Saturday's Aintree Grand National :)http://bit.ly/HvfGnH > What's your EW tip? #Aintree #GrandNational


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    #170
    admiralofthefleet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 15,515 ✭✭✭✭admiralofthefleet


    im going with treacle, hoping to win two years in a row


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    #171
    Rhinestone Cowboy
    Registered Users Posts: 55 ✭✭Rhinestone Cowboy


    It dried out a bit today

    http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/04/10/manual_184330.html&BID=465

    On other bookie offers Paddy Power and Bet365 are 5 places. Bet365 NRNB not sure about the others. Bookies will be reining free bet offers in this week. Noticed Stan James have already reduced theirs.


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    #172
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Morgans


    My three and a half against the field:

    Organisedconfusion: Long range tip from this time last year. Best price available was 40/1 so 25/1 on the day shows the pointlessness of antepost for the race. Still think he has everything set up to run a big race. Deliberately protected handicap mark, ran a really great hurdle race to start the season and has been marking time since. Was not stopping at Fairyhouse last year and although 7, he is the right type for me. Has to be included in all bets.

    Killyglen: Won like he was in great form at Down Royal. Looked far from down with last year and clearly the target for the trainer. At 16/1, he should give you a proper run for your money. Perfect weight, lots of plusses. Should be on the premises with any luck.

    Always Waining: This is the darker horse 40/1 with little form this year but with a fantastic course record. Loves this time of year and loves the course. Mon Parrain was a handicap snip in great form last year and it was no mean feat to scalp him. Distance is an issue but such is the way he goes around here, that there are worse 40/1 shots in the race. He is still in the Topham, and if he goes there on friday, I'll back him more confidently there instead.

    The half is to cover whatever bet you do with a small saver on Sychronised. He is too well handicapped to be let win without something on him.


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    #173
    hucklebuck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,173 ✭✭✭hucklebuck


    Morgans, B365 are nrnb 40/1 Alway Waining so you can always back him now and if he runs in Topham there's no harm done


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    #174
    ronan1986
    Registered Users Posts: 103 ✭✭ronan1986


    Any Love for Rare Bob in here.

    40/1.

    Decent e/w bet?


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    #175
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Antepost bets should only be struck if you think the price is going to shorten. Organisedconfusion has done nothing recently so theres been no attention on him. The age stat is against him though meaning he won't attract that much attention in the run up. He'll probably start at 25-33.


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    #176
    ronan1986
    Registered Users Posts: 103 ✭✭ronan1986


    Nulty wrote: »
    Antepost bets should only be struck if you think the price is going to shorten. Organisedconfusion has done nothing recently so theres been no attention on him. The age stat is against him though meaning he won't attract that much attention in the run up. He'll probably start at 25-33.

    Thats a bit of an obvious statement..


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    #177
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    ronan1986 wrote: »
    Thats a bit of an obvious statement..

    Obvious to you


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    #178
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Nulty wrote: »
    I like to have a no hoper outsider I think could surprise. Last year It was Surface To Air at 100/1. This year I'll go with Grand National winning trainer Kim Baileys Midnight Haze. He's nearly 300/1 on betfair but is fairly unexposed and been aimed at the race all year. He looks a national type and Kim Bailey seems excited about him taking his chance. He ran a nice prep for the race at Cheltenham in the Cross Country and took to the fences well. He's a good jumper and was just outpaced when it came to the crunch at Cheltenham. That is a good run going into the national imv. He is in the handicap proper at 10-00 and needs only 9 to come out at the next forfeit stage. I make it 8 after Pearlysteps was pulled up today at Newbury.

    In the news and the price has contracted. really did look underestimated. It amazing how fickle the markets are.


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    #179
    ronan1986
    Registered Users Posts: 103 ✭✭ronan1986


    Nulty wrote: »
    Obvious to you

    why else would you bet antepost?


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    #180
    Nulty
    Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    ronan1986 wrote: »
    why else would you bet antepost?

    Some people don't consider the chance that the price will be available on the day without the risk. I was responding to Morgans point about the "pointlessness of antepost for the race".

    I can understand backing Organisedconfusion before a race that he ran where he was likely to perform well i.e., he was backed to win a race showing confidence. Then if he does run really well, his national p[rice would contract and you'd be left with a bigger price.


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    #181
    Morgans
    Registered Users Posts: 4,349 ✭✭✭Morgans


    I do think that its worth backing the day before once they are declared. There is no race in the calendar where bookies routinely shorten the first ten in the betting and the discrepancy between the bookies and the exchanges is so pronounced.


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