Any sign of good weather?

Kippure · 07-08-2007 4:08pm

Does any one think that the end of august could be warm and sunny? Been noticing that high pressue wantsto rigde over us through the runs of late.

Would be nice. Hopefully not to warm.

mike65 · 08-08-2007 6:25pm

Its looking vaguely hopfull in a fingers crossed fashion. I imagine that the best we can hope for is settled rather than any great boost in temps.

Mike.

Mothman · 08-08-2007 6:56pm

Kippure wrote:

Been noticing that high pressue wantsto rigde over us through the runs of late.

F1 territory has been teasing us with that high pressure for a while now....and may continue to do so.

I think Chantal upset the apple cart somewhat in that I though we were in for a pattern change until she got her sting into us last weekend.

lucernarian · 08-08-2007 9:04pm

mike65 wrote:

Its looking vaguely hopfull in a fingers crossed fashion. I imagine that the best we can hope for is settled rather than any great boost in temps.

Mike.

I couldn't care less about heat, I'll be delighted with a lack of rain for a week. And heat could mean convective showers...

As for the GFS charts, I see a stalled LP just to the north of or else over Ireland from t+48 until t+216 (I didn't bother beyond that).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png. That's a pretty chart for January:( (12z chart)

At least it's a sign of a PFJ that's not over Ireland...

nacho libre · 09-08-2007 1:12pm

I'd be fairly confident of it picking up in the middle or towards the end of August. If i recall correctly this was the pattern in other years the jet stream behaved like this.

lucernarian · 09-08-2007 2:23pm

I must look into that. Pattern matching is something I haven't followed much. I hope it's right regardless.

Supercell · 09-08-2007 6:35pm

Mothman wrote:

F1 territory has been teasing us with that high pressure for a while now....and may continue to do so.

I think Chantal upset the apple cart somewhat in that I though we were in for a pattern change until she got her sting into us last weekend.

It seems that in the last couple of years that the weather seems to be very sticky in terms of pattern.
Case in point this year - gales dec/jan/feb, bone dry April , soaking June and July.
When it does change, as it must eventually, it may well be for a while.
I'm guessing for sunny settled late August and September with long frosty and often foggy nights in mid September onwards.

That's as close to an LRF as I'll go, tbh I put little faith in LRF's my own included!

Trogdor · 09-08-2007 10:37pm

That's alot of rain:eek:
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1264.png
Looks like hurricane charlie with lighter winds:eek:
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1261.png

Trogdor · 10-08-2007 10:29am

Tht storm, which was even stronger on the 06z has now dissappeared, only to pop up again later probably.
Showing some chilly nights atm
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png

Trogdor · 10-08-2007 4:10pm

trogdor wrote:

only to pop up again later probably.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.png

...and there it is, back again
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.png

ninebeanrows · 10-08-2007 4:14pm

Yumm Yumm Results Day

ninebeanrows · 10-08-2007 4:17pm

Long way out but Shiver me Timbers!

At least i'll be drunk!!

Trogdor · 10-08-2007 4:30pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Long way out but Shiver me Timbers!

At least i'll be drunk!!

Just make sure you don't stumble onto any cruise boats:p:D

mike65 · 10-08-2007 4:33pm

God is taking the piss! Is anyone watching Amys breasts in Big Brother? They're lit by a warm bright sun

I'm in the drizzle and it seems to have been like that most of the summer.

Mike.

lucernarian · 10-08-2007 6:00pm

That's a monstrous LP for 15th August! I feel your pain WC:(

junkyard · 10-08-2007 11:01pm

I never thought when I started this thread that it would make such depressing reading, I never remember such a bad summer in all my life. I'm glad I went to Malta on my holidays at the start of July and stayed there until yesterday. At least I got a summer.:D

mike65 · 11-08-2007 8:58am

Bah to Junkyard!

Tis drizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzling down here and hiring a hedge trimmer is put back yet again.

Mike

gazzer · 11-08-2007 12:16pm

I think I will get my granny, mum, aunties and uncles to pray to St Jude and put the Child of Prague statues out so that the weather will be good for Electric Picnic.. I dont want to be camping in a mud fest

lucernarian · 11-08-2007 2:34pm

I wouldn't blame ya. It's definetely not pretty.

Wednesday's LP has been downgraded on the 06Z chart, but still there's lots of rain about, and a shockingly low maximum temperature. 10 degrees is the highest temperature on that run for some parts.

And the LP is centred around the Isle of Mann for Wednesday! It won't be pretty. It looks like there'll be a respite afterwards with sunshine and showers but the PFJ isn't conducive to the Azores high moving towards us. Story of the summer.

Supercell · 11-08-2007 4:21pm

Think positive TBC, if this continues for another few months then winter should be interesting!
I wouldn't bet against a Bartlett though...sods law and all that.

Trogdor · 11-08-2007 5:01pm

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I wouldn't blame ya. It's definetely not pretty.

Wednesday's LP has been downgraded on the 06Z chart, but still there's lots of rain about, and a shockingly low maximum temperature. 10 degrees is the highest temperature on that run for some parts.

Sure is alot of rain, this link will update to the 12z soon but the 06z gave Dublin airport, 166.8mm out to T+180:eek:
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EIDW

lucernarian · 11-08-2007 8:16pm

Christ, I didn't think the total would be that high. If this evening's radar is to believed, some of that will fall tonight!

Now now Longfield, let us not consider throwing in the towel before winter's started!! 05/06 and last winter gave us some glimpses of hope for a severe winter post 91 (or 01 for me). Even something like 93 or 96 is still quite possible.:)

Supercell · 11-08-2007 8:29pm

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Christ, I didn't think the total would be that high. If this evening's radar is to believed, some of that will fall tonight!

Now now Longfield, let us not consider throwing in the towel before winter's started!! 05/06 and last winter gave us some glimpses of hope for a severe winter post 91 (or 01 for me). Even something like 93 or 96 is still quite possible.:)

Hehe, don't get me wrong, a rerun of last year will do me just fine - 8 days of snow falling and five days of snow lying >1cm @ 9am , no complaints here.
Personally have to go back to '82 to remember something similar at sea leval then.
I'm greedy though, I'd quite like a real old Siberian noreaster here like the '87 blast, I imagine it would be pretty amazing up here.

Trogdor · 11-08-2007 8:51pm

Longfield wrote:

Hehe, don't get me wrong, a rerun of last year will do me just fine - 8 days of snow falling and five days of snow lying >1cm @ 9am , no complaints here.
Personally have to go back to '82 to remember something similar at sea leval then.
I'm greedy though, I'd quite like a real old Siberian noreaster here like the '87 blast, I imagine it would be pretty amazing up here.

It'd be pretty amazing anywhere;) , i think, not being around back then, i wouldn't know:p

arctictree · 11-08-2007 9:05pm

Longfield wrote:

Hehe, don't get me wrong, a rerun of last year will do me just fine - 8 days of snow falling and five days of snow lying >1cm @ 9am , no complaints here.
Personally have to go back to '82 to remember something similar at sea leval then.
I'm greedy though, I'd quite like a real old Siberian noreaster here like the '87 blast, I imagine it would be pretty amazing up here.

00/01 was the best winter here I've experienced here (since I moved up in 1999). A week of snow at the end of December and another week of snow at the end of Feb/start of March. Noticed -6.5 one of the nights at the start of March with about a foot of snow lying outside. That was on my car thermo and just noticed it as I was coming in late - circa 2am. Wonder what the real low was that night?? Would be nice to get another winter like that or maybe an even better one!!

A

Kippure · 12-08-2007 8:11pm

http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=61

Interesting link.

mike65 · 12-08-2007 10:00pm

Sun 12th, a lot of rain everywhere, big chance of flooding

Right!

Mike.

nilhg · 15-08-2007 10:15pm

Time to cross the fingers?

BigCon · 16-08-2007 7:15am

Looking promising from next Monday/Tuesday alright. Fingers crossed...

Snowbie · 16-08-2007 8:35am

See the chart for thursday.Warm SE winds with a bay of biscay LP pushing up from the south.Interesting for storms if that where to come off.Looks like a nice few days before that.

ch750536 · 16-08-2007 11:04am

^I'm looking at the sun & he's looking at the storms.

Snowbie · 16-08-2007 11:48am

Just interpreting them charts and looking at a storm potential again after a few nice days of sun.;)

darkman2 · 16-08-2007 7:09pm

It certainly looks like a real improvement is on the way however I woud caution against those who think Azores high = Sun and warmth. In such setups cloud can be a problem. Hopefully though we get a quick switch to a continental flow which could make it warm or even hot and spark some storms. I dont expect much sun or warmth whilst the high sits just to the south of us. ECM has the perfect setup

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-216.GIF?16-0

If we can get the 15+ 850 isotherm over us that gaurentess inland temps approaching 30C.

Supercell · 16-08-2007 7:49pm

I wouldn't mind that at all, have noticed since moving here that its considerably sunnier here in a dry westerly flow than in Dublin and its suburbs where I've lived most of my life and commute from daily.
I'd say given the sodden ground 30°C is optimistic tbh even with 15+ 850's, that said high 20's are possible which would fantastic to have given the summer we've had so far.

The farmer beside me here cut one of his fields on Saturday and of course it rained on Sunday..and most days since..
Had first proper dry day here today and he's gathered it up (not sure if thats the right word to use), can't help but feel that its probably still sodden, but thats the summer we've had so far and what other choice did he have. There are other fields around that were cut around th same time but the grass is still laid out in stripes, a dry warm spell would be great. How long can silage/hay? lay out on the grass drying before its ruined?

mike65 · 17-08-2007 10:17am

Ooooh, I'm moist with excitment.

Mike.

fatherdougalmag · 17-08-2007 10:28am

Is it just me or is anyone else noticing a change in models this morning. GFS was positively ebulliant about a warm dry spell from mid next week but it has changed its tune this morning. UKMETO has dropped the HP strength a bit too so the high isn't as high as it was and could let some fronts push in.

Trogdor · 17-08-2007 10:32am

Heading up to the middle of nowhere for a week....Northern donegal. Forecast looks pretty miserable for the first few days at least. Overcast and drissely crap:(
EDIT: yeh, the models don't seem as confident this morning, you can see the split on the ensemble above at around the 23rd. Won't know for sure until around tomorrow evening i'd say though, could still change back

smashey · 17-08-2007 10:35am

trogdor wrote:

Heading up to the middle of nowhere for a week....Northern donegal. Forecast looks pretty miserable for the first few days at least. Overcast and drissely crap:(

Ths sun always shines in Donegal. Even when it's wet and cold.:D

Trogdor · 17-08-2007 10:36am

smashey wrote:

Ths sun always shines in Donegal. Even when it's wet and cold.:D

mike65 · 18-08-2007 1:56pm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/senspanel241.gif

Mike.

mickger · 18-08-2007 4:03pm

mike65 wrote:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/senspanel241.gif

Mike.

Looking good

mike65 · 18-08-2007 11:34pm

I said it would all "turn out nice again" in mid August a few weeks back.

Mike.

fatherdougalmag · 19-08-2007 3:48pm

Eh, there's some big yellow thing up in the sky emitting heat and light. I thought there'd be something in the news about it but I'm going to get my binoculars to check it out. I'll let you know how I get on.

rc28 · 19-08-2007 4:50pm

fatherdougalmag wrote:

Eh, there's some big yellow thing up in the sky emitting heat and light. I thought there'd be something in the news about it but I'm going to get my binoculars to check it out. I'll let you know how I get on.

:eek: :eek:
Ye, I'm seeing the same thing here now, I have no idea what it is but it emits a kind of pleasant golden warmth

Any sign of good weather?

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