The handicap for the Ireland v NZL game was only 3-4 points if I'm not mistaken, based on you're definition its an upset but by most people's definition it's not, that sort of handicap is nothing and is suggesting the game is too close to call.
The context is in 21 matches Ireland have won 20 and the one loss was a one score defeat in a game that could have gone either way. One game simply isnt enough information to go on to make any sort of conclusion unless it's just trying to fufill a narrative, which many on here are trying (namely TRC and Dubinusa).
Cant understand it myself considering the brilliance of this Irish side and reflecting on how far Irish rugby has come since 1997
Long post of reflection!
As as starting point Italy were arguably a better team than Ireland in 1997.
Troncon, Dominguez, the Cuttitta brothers, Orlandi, Checchinato, Gardner, Vaccari, Stoica were all mainstays compared to Irelands disorganised rabble.
Then BOD arrived in '99.
Lens (Argentina were also prob better)
Even after the 2000 6N hammering by England it was obvious (if you scratched beneath the surface) that Ireland had The Blueprint for success (Schools-IRFU Provinces)
Then the Famous 5 v Scot
The Paris hat-trick
Then the EO'S sides provided The Background for more success
The Munster backbone
The Leinster flair
The Triple Crown (7th in history!!)
Another Triple Crown
Then Munster champions of Europe
Triple Crown Again
Then Munster again
Then Leinster
Then the Grand Slam (2nd!!)
Then Leinster again
Then Wales in the QF
This was the junction in the road. 10 years on from EO'S providing the background for Kidneys Grand Salm team... would Ireland make the next step?
The Joe Schmidt era to me has been The Springboard that Irish rugby needed. 2 more Championships and another Grand Salm.
.......but ultimately yet more abject failures at the RWC.
In Feb '21 I would have swapped all the Irish provincial wins in Europe for the Welsh national side 2000-2021 achievements.
Wales: 4 GS & 2 RWC SFs v Ireland: 2 GS & 0 RWC SF's
Farrells Grand Slam (4th) era was almost the perfect lead up to the WC.
.......but ultimately more failure at the RWC.
BUT this WAS different. Yes it was a QF defeat yet again but I felt that particular game was just on the day. 8 out of 10 games Ireland win that game.
& I'll take it and embrace the current success BECAUSE Ireland will not only win another Grand Slam this year I think they will win yet another one next year.
Plus the future looks very bright - Unprecedented U-20 success (Back-to-back Grand Slams and a WC Final)
The Blueprint. The Background. The Springboard.....- Diving analogy - This side has Style, Degree of Difficulty made look easy with excellent Execution and excellent Synchronisation.
Lots of work still to be done in the provinces (& new International caps) for the Perfect 10 at RWC 2027
In the meantime I will love each and every precious Grand Slam.
2000-2023 Honours and achievements
1. England: 2 GS & 1 RWC Win, 2 RWC Finals & RWC SF, and 5 6N
2. France: 4 GS & 1 RWC Final & 2 RWC SF's, and 2 6N
3. Wales: 4 GS & 2 RWC SFs, and 2 6N
4. Ireland: 3 GS and 2 6N
We absolutely screwed up the opening 20 minutes. It is a very different type of screwing up from other years, but it is what it is at this point.
The Telegraph is reporting that Immanuel Feyi-Waboso is set to start for England this weekend. They have a limited attacking structure, but any opportunity this guy gets in space will be a big danger for Ireland. He looks electric.
Again it's an opinion. But just to point out the fact that France are absolutely muck. Drew with the Azzurri! I fully expect Ireland to win this week. They should do comfortably.
Any leaked teams yet ?
The betting handicaps are certainly one way to assess the degree of upset. But they would also be pricing in market expectation of an upset given that it was Ireland in a QF in the RWC. Anyone's guess as to how many points that took from the spread.
Fact is, as you say, we had won close to 20 games in a row, were #1 in the world, had beaten the team then ranked #2 in the pool stage, faced a team ranked #4 where we had recently won a tour. Removing the context of the QF, that speaks to a likelihood of victory higher than what a 3-4 point spread would predict, imo.
But we lost. And I'd rather not capitulate to trolls, reflect on it maturely, acknowledge the disappointment, and identify the specifics of what went wrong. (Podge lists one such reason above).
I never said they were bottlers. Far from it. That loss though, has gave me a right boot up the hole.
You misread me. I'm not saying what you are implying. My hopes for this 6nations are well below usual standards, due to the loss at the world cup.
Ireland should and will complete a grand slam. They are the best team involved... by a big margin. I'm just not as invested this time. I've been unable to get past the loss. I would say there's similar feelings in N.Z.
Lads! I admire you all for being able to move ahead. I really do! I'm just in the stages of grief. I honestly thought that we would win the world cup. I'll enjoy a grand slam. But, what could have been.
Delete
Yes and no. JGP made two bad decisions when we were on their line that cost us scoring opportunities, but we were on their line nonetheless. Putting them under serious pressure.
Looks strong
Going 13-0 down to NZ is pretty much the definition of screwing up!
Costing us scoring opportunities with bad decision making is just part and parcel of our play in the first 20 which was nervy and unlike us. It put us in a hole which we never got out of. I'm relatively sanguine about the whole thing at this point - it was a bad defeat but I can live with it. Far better than almost all our previous world cup showings.
No Ringrose, maybe not at 100% yet and Frawley needed to cover at FB
Lads I think you can both be right.
I would think its very relevant to add this:
30secs (!) on the clock penalty to NZ. Barnes pings Porter at a ruck on the NZ 22'.
1min 30s - Mo'unga miscues clearing kick. Barnes gives knock-on against Ringrose (it came of Retallick) Scrum NZ just outside 22'.
2min 30s - Barnes pings Porter with NZ scrum going backwards.
6min 20s - Barnes pings Beirne in Irish 22' for 'not rolling away'(!)
This was after 30 phases of heroic defending.
7min 50s - 3v0 NZ
NOTE: Ireland have not had possession yet.
Now I'm going to say it. If it was another ref the maj of those decisions would not have gone against Ireland that day.
NZ actually started that game very nervously.
8min 55s - Barnes pings Savea for not rolling away. Inside the NZ 10m
Ireland kick for the corner.........
I could go on but lets just agree Ireland went down swinging that day.
They are a great side. They deserve to win another Grand Slam this year. And we are going to love every minute of it!
Cant wait for Saturday!
Love an old school team list where everyone is just initials plus surname. All they need to add back is the middle initials.
R. A. Henshaw
T. V. Furlong
Beautiful.
Frawley needed to cover 10 !
Hugo Keenan still a Twickenham doubt as Andy Farrell set to stick with 6/2 bench split
The coach will give Hugo Keenan as much time as possible to recover from his knee injury, with Ciarán Frawley on standby to remain in the No 15 jersey if he doesn’t make it.
If he does, then Frawley is likely wear the No 23 shirt and Farrell will be forced to choose between fit-again Garry Ringrose and incumbent Robbie Henshaw, whose form has been excellent alongside Bundee Aki in midfield.
He’s set to keep his spot and the most likely scenario would see Frawley continue at full-back with Keenan being given another week to recover for the final game of the Six Nations campaign against Scotland. In that scenario, Ringrose would wear No 23.
Such is Farrell’s faith in the bench that was first trialled against France in Marseille, with Ryan Baird’s form and Frawley’s versatility allowing them to roll six powerful forwards on during the second half.
It is expected that Farrell will name an unchanged pack from the one that proved too strong for Wales, with Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong in the front-row and Joe McCarthy and Tadhg Beirne in the second-row. Peter O’Mahony will captain the side from the back-row, where he’ll join Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris.
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Behind the scrum, Jamison Gibson-Park and Jack Crowley will continue at half-back, with Aki and Henshaw in midfield and James Lowe and Calvin Nash either side of the full-back.
If Frawley has that role, it’s expected that Ringrose will come on to the bench at Stuart McCloskey’s expense, while Finlay Bealham is battling Oli Jager for the reserve tighthead spot.
Rónan Kelleher and Cian Healy are expected to be named as replacements, with James Ryan, Baird and Jack Conan covering the other forward positions, while Conor Murray will join Frawley or Ringrose in the reserves.
England are reportedly set to hand Exeter Chiefs winger Immanuel Feyi-Waboso a first start after losing to Scotland.
Steve Borthwick is expected to retain George Ford at out-half, while powerful lock George Martin is likely to be drafted in to partner Maro Itoje.
Possible Ireland team to face England: C Frawley/ H Keenan; C Nash, R Henshaw, B Aki, J Lowe; J Crowley, J Gibson-Park; A Porter, D Sheehan, T Furlong; J McCarthy, T Beirne; P O’Mahony (capt), J van der Flier, C Doris. Reps: R Kelleher, C Healy, F Bealham, J Ryan, R Baird, J Conan, C Murray, G Ringrose/C Frawley.
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Ha oh yeah! Very strong team..[edit] but 6-2 is such a risk to take with the versatility of our 2nd rows and back rows now
The key indicator of how England plan to play the game will be who they pick at Fullback.
If they pick Steward , they plan to kick the skin off the ball and follow their WC SF game plan.
If they pick Furbank they are going to try to actually play Rugby.
We win either way , but the Steward option probably keeps the score close for the 1st hour or so (as it has been in most of the recent games) but if they pick Furbank and try to play I think Ireland can pull away early.
TBH - Trying to play and actually build a long term "style" is better for England in terms of development , but they will probably go Steward as Borthwick seems to treat each game a a singular event and not part of an overall long-term strategy.
Id love to see steward start. Once we can pull him out of position we can absolutely profit from his lack of pace.
Looks like a bit of a GAA selection i.e. the 23 announced versus the one that takes the field could be a bit different. Big risk going with a 6/2 split if HK < 80-90% fit as you are looking @ the scenario of a very early substitution & then squeaky-bum time that no other back bar No. 9 gets injured & them having to play the full 80.
RTE news : Keenan returns as Farrell make one change for England
http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/2024/0307/1436484-ireland-team-to-play-england-2024-six-nations/
Keenan is back and Henderson replaces Ryan who will miss the rest of the Six Nations with a bicep injury.
Henderson is some high level of a replacement to come in...might be a bigger blow for Leinster
Furbank it is then..
Awful news on Ryan.
Yeah, weird to pack a back line to play rugby, but put in a 10 that will kick the leather off the ball.
Yeah.. Doesn't really speak to a coherent game plan.
Ireland Bench is so much stronger and impactful..
