Agree quite.. no doubt but that the risk of nuclear escalation is not zero.. but is small in any rational world. NATO and allies and other concerned states have been following developments continuously. It's inconceivable that there isn't a whole set of scenarios planned for with degrees of appropriate response. Of course things could get out of hand in real time but the consequences for Russia itself are dire if it goes down this road. Even imperialists have a sense of self preservation.
I can see both sides of this discussion. Yes, the west has been able to cross numerous red lines (red squares? 🤔) set by Moscow without anything bar an angry barrage of Kinzhals and cruise missiles as a response. And I agree with the point that going nuclear, or indeed going after a NATO country would be supremely damaging and illogical. No rational leader would ever make that decision.
But here's the thing: We're not dealing with a rational actor here. The entire invasion of Ukraine is based on a deeply illogical vision of restoring Russia's former glory, fueled by a siege mentality that has been engrained in the Russian collective psyche. Putin has been acting from a deeply emotional and increasingly desperate base for years at this point, and that's why I tend to see where TedBundysDriver is coming from.
However, I feel like we're beyond the point where this fear should hold the west back. Eventually, Russia needs to be confronted and pushed back, its bluff called. I do believe that the chances of Russia going nuclear are small, but they're not zero. And while I believe the West should continue pushing back against Putin, I hope that NATO has the necessary battle plans in the drawer and ready to go in case he does snap.
Is this not a rehash of the arguments thrown out about a year and more ago on this thread?? i.e. don't provoke the Russian state or Putin too much in case they go nuclear. Yet as you point out, supposed red lines have been crossed and they haven't. It would lead to worldwide condemnation bar North Korea and Belarus, and quite likely the end of the current Russian regime. The potential for escalation would be huge and the end result entirely unpredictable.
If im not mistaken NATO have threatened war if Russia deploys nukes in this conflict, as the potential for radioactive fallout affecting member states would be considered a hostile act. But Russian nuclear doctrine is built around firing first. On the flip side, Russia has threatened many red lines that have been crossed by Ukraine and the allies.
My concern in this specific case is the potential domino effect. The front line is on the verge of breaking; the potential for another Kherson scale collapse that could isolate Crimea by cutting the overland link and bringing the Kerch Bridge into heavy weapons range is quite real. From Putin's perspective, it may prove an irreversible setback for his war.
He has this salient that is gradually filling up with some serious Ukrainian weaponry. In Putin's desperation, it might prove too tempting a target. The shock factor could freeze the entire front line. He could pull troops back out of immediate range of the blast sites and rebuild defences. I'm not saying that's logical thinking, but in Putin's head it might be. He might gamble that "small" nukes won't have sufficient fallout to travel far outside the warzone - it will be him testing NATO's red line.
It all comes down to how desperate he is, and who's crazy enough to listen to him. But then again, I might just be concerned over nothing.
No bother. I thought you where over in Ukraine the way you framed that.
They sure manage to crash a lot of planes. Must be due to maintenance issues by now.
Sabotage in Moscow
🇺🇦UkraineIntoucH🇺🇦 on X: "⚡⚡🇺🇦💪Unknown saboteurs blew up two planes and a helicopter near #Moscow, GUR MO. Explosives were planted and AN-148 and IL-20 aircraft (both belonging to the 354th special purpose aviation regiment) and an MI-28N helicopter were blown up. #UkraineWar #UkrainianArmy #Ukraine https://t.co/mnCvll8yZv" / X (twitter.com)
The west should understand that the Russian mentality is not, and never has been, like that of the west - unless you are talking about the Roman empire.
Yes but if fired from a howitzer it should be possible to open the main shell when it is nearer to the ground giving a more concentrated spread.
The co-ordination needed to try and ride two horses at the same time.
“To the extent the West is reliable, Russia is equally reliable. For the last 50 years, we have been waiting at the doorstep of the EU and, at this moment in time, I trust Russia just as much as I trust the West.”
Maybe it was a little tongue in cheek but that's the phrase the wrote the headline above all else he said.
The forecast for the next 2 weeks remains good, so it's unlikely there will be an early rasputista this autumn.
This is only relevant if the Russians are close to collapse I think. And that's something we can only guess about.
Yes Russia is really weaponising migrants to break cohesion in the West. The Syrian migrant crisis came after Russian got involved there in 2015. In 2021 lukashenko imported migrants and forced them to the polish border at gun point. And now Russian meddling in North Africa will force a new wave of migrants to European shores. They will literally point guns at Africans and say go to Europe or die. It’s basically war. Russia is using these unfortunate people to invade Europe. It’s gas when you listen to the likes of Nigel farage not once has he made the connection between Putin and migrant crises. Funny that!
Another Russian jet crashed, oh dear.
Aaaaah.
[Enter left]
jmreire: Set ye down this. And say besides that in Aleppo once ……
[redacted for being extremely non-PC in our culturally sensitive times]
I can never resist a bit of Shakespeare😊, even the tiniest bit!
Can we stop this nonsense? Or, if we're renaming the thread as someone suggested because they're offended by reading the word Russia (spare me) then just call it something along the lines of the Right On Echo Chamber War Thread.
There's some very good conversation on here at times, from people who seem to have a broader range of experience and insight. No reasonable person would read their posts and think "here's a pro-Russian", but some posters are determined to look for a reason to pile on at the drop of a hat. Post a link that doesn't accord with the right-on viewpoint/ post a thought that doesn't accord with the right-on viewpoint - ridiculed and dismissed with sarcasm and dog whistle hysteria. Disagree all you like, but try to provide a bit of substance for the sake of the discussion.
As much as the anti-everything trolls ruin this thread with their anti-Ukraine baiting crap (and thankfully get themselves thread-banned eventually), the posters who police every alternative view/ opinion for compliance with the accepted truth are as bad for derailing every interesting discussion. Go off and start a new One Viewpoint Only Accepted thread if that's what you want. None of you are fighting this war. I doubt many of you have even taken in any Ukrainians. You've no more right to an opinion than anyone else so stop playing the fantasist.
No, not involved in this war, watching from the sidelines, same as you and other posters, and same as you and the others , voicing my opinion. Back a few months ago, thought that I might get to Ukraine, but it didn't happen (not yet anyway) but I'm very familiar with wars in general, and Russian wars in particular ...spent time in Syria , 2,5 years in fact. I know what its like when Putin bomb's a city. I've very nice piece of shrapnel ( amongst other " things" ) as a souvenir from Aleppo.
You'll wait? Are you fighting?
And some other samples...Visegrád 24 on X: "Russian war propaganda targeting the youth is going into overdrive. “We will win,” - the young Putin-patriots sing https://t.co/Ptg3nQI6j8" / X (twitter.com)
But what about Tony Blair!!!!!!
He's not right. We've seen what Russians do when they "Liberate" a place....Boucha for example. And there are other places too, with until Zelensky clears them out of Melitopol and other places. There will be some horrors uncovered then. Ukrainians have to fight, and I'll wait until Zelensky says stop.
I'm sure whoever it was got labelled a pro Russian propagandist.
Yes of course the blame ultimately lies with Russia but as you say that's no consolation to the families who lost their loved ones. Just another example of the tragedy of war
This guy posts some good videos.
It's worth subscribe to.
There's more ways of winning a war than on the battlefield, and Russia is expert at taking control of country's from within. Master class standard as a matter of fact.
This is what Russia is doing.
This is Roman, he is 8.
He was injured in the Russian missile attack on Vinnytsia in July 2022. 45 % of the body surface is burned. Now he returned to Ukraine after treatment in Germany. His recovery will continue at the UNBROKEN KIDS Children's Rehabilitation Center (Lviv)
https://x.com/mariana_betsa/status/1703814557947342988?s=46&t=164doiZBMwnNrFfsvLsvPA
Yes, that's true, and Russia lost around 27 million during the war, roughly 20 million civilians and 7 million military. But Stalin killed at least another 20 million outside of the war figure, and that's a conservative figure. The real figure is thought to be much higher. So no, Putin hasn't and reached those figures, but for sure he's working hard at it. And who know's what his final figure will be??
Would be perfect.
Russia deserves Zero attention.
Plus the actual war is being fought in Ukraine and not Russia.
Ukraines fight for freedom or something like that
Agree 100%
Maybe someday we could get this thread title changed to Ukraine?
Sick of looking at Russia as the thread title everyday, while Ukraine fight for their lives and right to exist.
Russia doesn’t deserve it.
I prefer playing me flute.
![Photo of [Deleted User]](https://we.vanillicon.com/v2/e050b53be62f0ae2404c620976170938.svg)
